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Speaker 1: We've got some good news on housing if you want

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Speaker 1: it from ben Z. Next year we'll see some serious

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Speaker 1: growth and prices they're calling seven percent. The b and

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Speaker 1: ZI chief economist Mike Jones is with us on this

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Speaker 1: Mike Morning. To you, it's my mind with what level

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Speaker 1: of confidence do you say this?

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Speaker 2: Look about the average level of confidence which is low

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Speaker 2: in terms of the pinpoint number itself from in forecasting

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Speaker 2: house prices twelve or twelve months or longer in advance

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Speaker 2: is always a tough ass. I think what we're talking about, though,

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Speaker 2: is just factoring in the change in fundamentals that we're seeing,

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Speaker 2: which are lower mortgage rates, and matching those up against

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Speaker 2: what is a pretty dismal set of other fundamentals when

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Speaker 2: it comes to things like the economy and the late market.

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Speaker 2: So you put all those things together to next year,

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Speaker 2: where we are starting the spector at an upturn in

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Speaker 2: house prices. Nothing too spectacular, it's it's pretty much just

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Speaker 2: an average sort of number when you think about house

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Speaker 2: price increases in New Zealand over the past few decades.

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Speaker 1: Although seven percent a lot better than what we've had,

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Speaker 1: do you see any real reaction to the one OCR

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Speaker 1: cut or are we needing to see two, three or

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Speaker 1: four before we're guns are blazing.

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Speaker 2: We haven't really seen anything hard or any hard evidence

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Speaker 2: so far. Certainly stematic don't and some speculation and perhaps

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Speaker 2: a bit more confidence on the part of buyers as

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Speaker 2: you might expect, but we haven't seen really that come

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Speaker 2: through in the numbers just yet. And look, our expectation

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Speaker 2: for this year is that the housing market stays more

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Speaker 2: or less in the same position that it's been for

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Speaker 2: the past couple of years, which is not really going

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Speaker 2: anywhere fast.

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Speaker 1: Okay, supply side on construction. So if we start buying houses,

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Speaker 1: start getting a bit of a fizzle on the builders

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Speaker 1: start swinging hammers, yeah, I would expect.

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Speaker 2: That impact to come through eventually. It's going to take

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Speaker 2: some time, certainly. All the anecdote feed that we get

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Speaker 2: and the numbers as well, say, at the moment, it's

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Speaker 2: just the numbers don't add up for construction. The cash

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Speaker 2: flow impacts are too great, and so I think it's

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Speaker 2: going to take some time. It's going to take me

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Speaker 2: having market to tune and just rate to come down

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Speaker 2: further before you start the seed that feed through onto

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Speaker 2: the supply side and construction.

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Speaker 1: Activity good stuff, Mike, appreciate your expertise, Mike Jones being

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Speaker 1: zi Cheap Economist.

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Speaker 2: news talks.

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