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Speaker 1: We are talking war. In the last forty eight hours,

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Speaker 1: we had the news of Russia agreeing to a partial

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Speaker 1: cease fire. Basically they said we won't attack any energy infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: and then within hours we had Russia launching drone strikes

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Speaker 1: on said energy infrastructure and two hospitals. Now Trump and

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Speaker 1: Zelensky have spoken this morning. We're two from here. Kirk

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Speaker 1: Giles is a senior expert on Russia at Britain's prestigious

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Speaker 1: Chatham House and he's with me. Now, good morning, Hello,

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Speaker 1: good morning. So what do we know about this Trump

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Speaker 1: and Zelensky call.

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Speaker 2: Well, the problem is we don't know very much about

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Speaker 2: what has really been discussed in any of these calls.

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Speaker 2: You've got this shuttle diplomacy, these three way phone calls,

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Speaker 2: and you get readouts from them that are very different

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Speaker 2: depending on who you're listening to. Even Trump's and Putin's call.

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Speaker 2: If you read what to the White House is saying

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Speaker 2: in English and what the Kremlin is saying in Russian,

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Speaker 2: it's as though it was about two totally separate conversations.

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Speaker 2: And of course, bearing in mind, neither of those is

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Speaker 2: a particularly reliable source at the moment, but it's plain

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Speaker 2: that tree this in two different ways. And then on

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Speaker 2: top of that, you've got whatever Trump has briefed to

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Speaker 2: Zelenski or demanded from him in this most recent conversation.

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Speaker 2: So all of this is really happening behind closed doors,

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Speaker 2: and we can only really guess what has been agreed

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Speaker 2: from what is visible on the outside. There doesn't seem

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Speaker 2: to have been an agreement on even a partial ceasefire

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Speaker 2: that a lot of media seem to have assumed is

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Speaker 2: the case after that first White House readout saying that yes,

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Speaker 2: this has been agreed, and that's partly because of course

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Speaker 2: it's given Russia an opportunity, as everybody expected it would,

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Speaker 2: to demand more in order to stop the war. So

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Speaker 2: the real question is how much is the United States

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Speaker 2: going to give Russia this time.

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Speaker 1: And how Why isn't Trump playing hardball with potent like

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Speaker 1: he did with Zelenski.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's a consistent pattern. This is a ceasefire into

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Speaker 2: which Ukraine has been coerced and Russia has been invited.

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Speaker 2: But that goes along with Trump policy all the way,

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Speaker 2: not just to this time around, but also in his

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Speaker 2: first term in office. At every possible opportunity, he gives

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Speaker 2: Russia what it wants, even if it's to the detriment

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Speaker 2: of the United States's own interest. So that is not

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Speaker 2: the surprising part. Trump's often called unpredictable, But this is

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Speaker 2: the one thing in which he has been absolutely rock

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Speaker 2: solid and predictable all the way through. Do you know

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Speaker 2: that he's on Russia side?

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Speaker 1: Why do you think he's doing that? Is that because

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Speaker 1: they trying to You know, they've got a bigger beast

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Speaker 1: to time in China. They can't be at war and

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Speaker 1: hating everyone. They want a resumption of tires with Russia,

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Speaker 1: try and pull them away from China. What's the play here.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's often been put forward by trumpists as the

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Speaker 2: three D chess explanation for what's going on, some kind

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Speaker 2: of broader strategy that's to do with turning towards China,

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Speaker 2: But of course that's not backed up by any of

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Speaker 2: the actions that the Trump Musk administration are actually taking,

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Speaker 2: because they're knocking away the foundations of US power, not

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Speaker 2: just facing Europe, but also facing elsewhere as well. If

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Speaker 2: they wanted to be strong towards China, they wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: immobilizing Department of Defense, they wouldn't be cutting back on

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Speaker 2: the military they wouldn't be cutting back on the United

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Speaker 2: States soft power like usaid, Voice of America, all of

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Speaker 2: the ways that Russia can reach around the world and

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Speaker 2: try to frustrate powers like Russia and China. So it

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Speaker 2: just doesn't stack up, and it resembles far more simply

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Speaker 2: curtailing the United States as means of exerting national interest

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Speaker 2: supporting national interests both at home and abroad.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Europeans and how they respond

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Speaker 1: to all of this. We've had, for those who are

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Speaker 1: just joining us, a call overnight between Trump and Zelensky.

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Speaker 1: We're not entirely sure what was said in the call

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Speaker 1: just yet, but the so called deal between Putin and

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Speaker 1: Trump over Ukraine hasn't held because already there've been attacks

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Speaker 1: on infrastructure and on two hospitals. So what does Europe

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Speaker 1: make of all of this here and what happens I

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Speaker 1: suppose to the idea of peace when even Trump, who's

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Speaker 1: you know, as you've said, kind of settled himself closely

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Speaker 1: to Putin, can't get a deal out of him.

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Speaker 2: Well, he's not trying to get a deal out of him,

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Speaker 2: except in the sense that he's trying to impose whatever

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Speaker 2: Russia wants on Ukraine, and of course that is what

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Speaker 2: Europeans are especially worried about, particularly, of course, those are

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Speaker 2: the frontline states of Russia, because they look at what

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Speaker 2: has been done to Ukraine, they know that they could

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Speaker 2: be next, and they know that the United States, which

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Speaker 2: formerly was the underpinning of NATO or the backbone of

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Speaker 2: this alliance that's supposed to keep them safe, has actually

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Speaker 2: flipped to the other side. So they're scrambling to look

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Speaker 2: for any way that they can salvage. The situation which

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Speaker 2: you've got going on across Europe is inventorization of all

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Speaker 2: of the military power, the military capacity that European states

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Speaker 2: can bring that isn't dependent on US support. And it

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Speaker 2: turns out in some cases that's not a lot, because

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Speaker 2: everybody's assumed perfectly reasonably that they're going to be on

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Speaker 2: the same side as the Americans in the future. Plus,

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Speaker 2: of course, around the world, you've also got other countries

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Speaker 2: looking at this, the way that Ukraine has been thrown

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Speaker 2: under the bus, and thinking, well, this could be us next.

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Speaker 2: If we were reliant previously on the United States for

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Speaker 2: our security, if we looked at them as a friend

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Speaker 2: and an ally and a partner that was always going

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Speaker 2: to back us up. We need to in mind that

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Speaker 2: if we come under attack, the United States might just

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Speaker 2: see that as an opportunity to opportunity to extort from

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Speaker 2: US something in the same way that they have Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, interestingly, Japan has moved some of its long range

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Speaker 1: missiles for exactly that reason. Just a little worried, a

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Speaker 1: little shaky on American support. So what happens now? I mean,

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Speaker 1: how does this end in Europe? If Putin is saying, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, never accept any European troops basically in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: to help with the peacekeeping or to hold peace in place,

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Speaker 1: and then you've got the Europeans saying, that's what we're

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Speaker 1: willing to offer. We will do this to make it work.

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Speaker 1: They obviously want to have a buffer between each other.

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Speaker 1: How does this end?

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Speaker 2: Well, Europe is trying to put together what it's calling

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Speaker 2: a coalition of the willing to actually provide for some

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Speaker 2: kind of lasting peace in Ukraine as opposed to this

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Speaker 2: sticking plaster ceasefire that Trump seems to want to impose

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Speaker 2: on it while waiting for Russia's conditions of surrender to

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Speaker 2: be imposed. But of course that's on two conditions that

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Speaker 2: are in the moment are nonsensical. All of the descriptions

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Speaker 2: that we've had of how European troops might arrive in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine to maintain some kind of lasting piece are on

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Speaker 2: two conditions. First of all, US support and secondly Russian acquiescence.

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Speaker 2: Russian has to agree to them being there, while the

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Speaker 2: United States has already ruled out support. They say that's

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Speaker 2: not going to happen, and Russia is never going to

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Speaker 2: agree to it because the whole point of them being

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Speaker 2: there is to frustrate Russia and prevent it from invading further.

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Speaker 2: So at the moment, the conversation, at least as it's

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Speaker 2: happening in the public domain, is a little bit nonsensical.

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Speaker 2: Now tomorrow, our time, already today, your time with there

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Speaker 2: is going to be a meeting of military chiefs from

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Speaker 2: across Europe who are supposed to be so called operationalizing

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Speaker 2: this idea, probably putting their heads together and seeing just

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Speaker 2: what exactly they can deliver in terms of military power

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Speaker 2: to meet this political task that has been set. I

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Speaker 2: doubt very much will hear anything specific about what comes

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Speaker 2: out of that meeting, but there could be some hard

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Speaker 2: truths about just what is actually possible if the United

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Speaker 2: States isn't playing along.

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Speaker 1: And how quickly that can all happen too. I guess

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Speaker 1: it's quite key, Kier. Thank you very much for your

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Speaker 1: time this morning. Really appreciate your analysis. K Charles, senior

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Speaker 1: expert on Russia at Britain's Prestigiou Chathamhouse with us this morning.

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