1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: Liberation Day. Details has been revealed in about an hour 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:04,600 Speaker 1: and a half's time Rose Garden at the White House. 3 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: Of course, a lot of speculation as to how this 4 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: is going to play out. As far as the Mexican concern, 5 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 1: They're not interested in tit for tech. 6 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 2: We do not. 7 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 3: Believe in an eye for an eye, a tooth for 8 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 3: a tooth, because that always leads to a bad situation. 9 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,159 Speaker 3: Of course, measures are taken, because measures are taken on 10 00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 3: the other side, but the dialogue must continue. It's not 11 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 3: about tit or tat, but about what is best for 12 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: Mexico and how to face the situation. 13 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: North to the other border. Doug Ford, who once upon 14 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: a time threatened to cut the power off to New York. 15 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: Of course Ontario Premiere he not so upbeat. 16 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 2: President Trump calls a liberation day. I call it termination 17 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,400 Speaker 2: day because a lot of people are going to be 18 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 2: terminated from their jobs now. 19 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: Dartmouth economics professor Douglas Owan's with us. Douglas, very good 20 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: morning to you. 21 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 2: It's good afternoon here. 22 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: What's your vibe. How's this going to unfold? Are we 23 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: going to get specific detail? If we get specific detail, 24 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: do we get retelling immediately? Or eventually or what. 25 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting that there were press reports even this 26 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 2: morning from Bloomberg and elsewhere that even the White House 27 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 2: hasn't finalized and decided on what exactly the tariff plan 28 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: will be, so it could be there working on it 29 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 2: this very moment. We might get something very vague about 30 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 2: plans for the future, with nothing announced in specifics, but 31 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 2: we could also have a specific plan. And basically there 32 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 2: are two that the White House is considering. One is 33 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,919 Speaker 2: universal tariffs, which would mean in across the board tariff 34 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 2: of maybe twenty percent that number has been bounced around 35 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: a bit or something like that, or reciprocal tariffs, in 36 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 2: which case it wouldn't be uniform across the board, it 37 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 2: would be specified different levels to different countries. So we'll 38 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 2: just have to wait and see what comes out. 39 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: We've got a couple of reports, so I've heard a 40 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,919 Speaker 1: couple of leaks so far. There were three different teriffs 41 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: they're going to announce at four o'clock this afternoon New 42 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: York Times, something like ten, fifteen and twenty. I've just 43 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: also heard that the White House is filed twenty five 44 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: percent on cars, So I don't know where this guys 45 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: what's the vibe in America in terms? I mean, I 46 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: don't know if you realize this, Douglas, in nineteen eighty 47 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: two eighty three, we became free traders. We have a 48 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: plenty as of free trade in this country right in 49 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: the world building. And so we just don't get this. 50 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: This is insanity, economic insanity. How does it get explained 51 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: to the American people? 52 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 2: Well, I think they're going to feel it very soon 53 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: in their pocketbook. You know, I talked about Liberation Days. 54 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: Some other people are calling it watch your wallet day. 55 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: With twenty five percent tariffs on cars, that's going to 56 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 2: push up the price of new cars and used cars aliked, 57 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 2: let alone the steel and the parts involved as well. 58 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 2: And if these if we have anything like what is 59 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 2: being talked about universal tarifs are what have you? Everything 60 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 2: from the price of avocados and fresh fruits to manufactured goods, clothing, shoes, 61 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: everything's going to go up to some extent. And so 62 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: it's not going to sort of reindustrialize America the way 63 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 2: the president wants. It's just the cost Americans a lot exactly. 64 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 2: What's sort of ironic about this situation is that the 65 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: American people are not really demanding this. They didn't re 66 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: elect Trump for this reason. Trade is very low on 67 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 2: the priority list of any American American business was not 68 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,079 Speaker 2: asking for this. They weren't clamoring for high terriffs because 69 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 2: there would be besieged by foreign competition. This is really 70 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: because Congress over the years is delegated a lot of 71 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 2: trade making power to one person, the president, on the 72 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 2: assumption that we'd have a reasonable president would reflect the 73 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 2: national interest, and unfortunately we don't have a reasonable administration 74 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: and one person can make these big changes. 75 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: This is the fascinating thing for me. There's so many 76 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: shifting goalposts, fentanyl and illegals across the border. Even if 77 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: you agree with it or don't agree with I get 78 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: what he was trying to do. I get it, do 79 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: something or else we want to slightly with terrorists. That 80 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: bit I get. And American product into Europe gets a 81 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: twenty five percent tariff, right will match you. I get 82 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: that part. But what I don't get is the belief 83 00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: that somehow the entire world is going to relocate to 84 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: America to build all their factories, to build products at 85 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: the cheapest price possible, that American consumers are going to 86 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: lap up because it isn't going to happen. 87 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 2: Well, the problem is that the administration has had a 88 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: multitude of rationales for these tariffs. Sometimes it's to raise 89 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: revenue so we can cut income taxes. Sometimes is to 90 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 2: close the trade deficit, which the President really focuses on 91 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: as his measure of unfair trade, despite the view that 92 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:31,160 Speaker 2: economists dissent from that. In general, reshoring jobs, national security, fentanyl, 93 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 2: as you said, migration flows. So it's very hard for, 94 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: first of all, other countries to respond when you don't 95 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 2: know exactly what the rationale for the tariffs is. It's 96 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 2: also very hard for the American business community to understand 97 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 2: are these permanent tariffs or temporary tariffs, because you don't 98 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: make big investment decisions based on the whims of tariffs 99 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 2: that could go up or down within a matter of 100 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 2: weeks or months. 101 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: No shortage of poles at the moment, suggesting America is 102 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 1: going to slow, if not slowing already in a recession 103 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 1: is possible. 104 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 2: What's your view, Well, I think there's a risk of that, 105 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: and it would be a self inflicted wound. The President 106 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 2: inherited an economy and reasonable shape, four percent of unemployment 107 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: growth at a modest pace. But the tariff policies, which 108 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 2: once again are coming a little bit out of the blue. 109 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: He had always talked about them, but never front and center. 110 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 2: The business community wanted an agenda of tax cuts and deregulation, 111 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 2: and they're getting tariffs, and so they're holding off an investment. 112 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: Consumer confidence has plummeted just in the past month or so, 113 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: and so if you get consumers and businesses holding back expendsures, 114 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 2: this could be an own goal, a recession that comes 115 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: from the White House. 116 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: Wackiest time, Douglas, appreciate your expertise very much. Douglas, who 117 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: who's Dartmouth economics professor? Fun fact, you talk about the 118 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: cars of the problem, So, of course there is no 119 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: such thing as an American made car. It simply does 120 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: not exist, even though there are factories in America that 121 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: might cars. Other bits and pieces come from other parts 122 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: of the world. So they've worked out or somebody worked 123 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: out the other. I was reading, Toyota is going to 124 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: be the worst hit of all the manufacturers. Toyota do 125 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,160 Speaker 1: things slightly different from some of the others. Everyone's going 126 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 1: to get hit, but Toyota's going to be the worst hit. 127 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: A car part on average. Apparently. Here's a fun fact. 128 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,599 Speaker 1: A car part gets exported ten to twelve times on 129 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: average each part, because a part becomes a part, becomes apart, 130 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: becomes a part before it becomes the ultimate part in 131 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: the car, so it's exported ten to twelve times. For 132 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: more from the mic Asking Breakfast listen live to news talks. 133 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 2: It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast 134 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio.