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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Saturday Morning with Jack Team podcast

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Speaker 1: from News Talks AB.

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Speaker 2: Who's Gonna Win? H How I wish I could tell

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Speaker 2: you from here in the heart of Washington, d C.

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Speaker 2: I am happy to be humble this morning. I really

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Speaker 2: think that anyone who says with supreme confidence or with

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Speaker 2: a sense of certainty that they know who the next

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Speaker 2: president of the US is going to be is honestly

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Speaker 2: just blagging. I don't think anyone knows. But it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: I have spent the last week on the road, so

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Speaker 2: I've been through parts of Arizona. I've been through Georgia,

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Speaker 2: New York, and DC. From a Donald Trump rally in

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Speaker 2: Atlanta to Kamala Harris's closing argument in front of the

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Speaker 2: White House. Now, I've spoken with African American voters backing

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, new migrant voters voting for the first time,

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Speaker 2: abortion rights advocates, business owners, a cryptocurrency organizer, and a

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Speaker 2: professor constitutional law. And I think one of the consistent

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Speaker 2: qualities across all of those people is just how exhausted

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Speaker 2: people in the US are by the whole thing. They

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Speaker 2: are so ready for this race to be over. But

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Speaker 2: here is what I think could be the qualities that

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Speaker 2: ultimately define the contest. Number One I reckon this is

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Speaker 2: a massive one to watch. The gender divide. So at

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Speaker 2: the moment there is a sixteen or seventeen point difference

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Speaker 2: between male and female preferences in this election. More than

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Speaker 2: sixty million votes have already been cast, and given that

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Speaker 2: we still have a weekend here in the US before

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Speaker 2: election day, it seems very likely that more than half

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Speaker 2: of voters will cast ballots before Wednesday. And here's why

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Speaker 2: that's notable. Of the votes cast so far, women are

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Speaker 2: voting at much higher levels than men. It's about fifty

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Speaker 2: five percent of early votes have been cast by women,

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Speaker 2: forty five percent by men. Yeah, a married couple who

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Speaker 2: are really good friends of mine experience this firsthand. So

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Speaker 2: he loves Donald Trump. She absolutely loathes him. They can't

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Speaker 2: of just agree to mostly avoid talking politics at home,

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Speaker 2: but something similar must be playing out in tens of

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Speaker 2: thousands of American households. Donald Trump's strategy relies on turning

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Speaker 2: out heaps of young men, hence the bro podcasts that

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Speaker 2: he's been doing, Hence his attendance at UFC Fight Night,

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Speaker 2: The embracing of cryptocurrency and Elon Musk, and you'd have

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Speaker 2: to say it is a risky strategy in that young

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Speaker 2: men belong to the demographic that is most likely not

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Speaker 2: to vote. But look, I've been doing this long enough

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Speaker 2: to know that Donald Trump has made a real habit

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Speaker 2: of bucking conventional wisdom and politics. Number two, the economy

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Speaker 2: always factors in people's choices. But aside from that, and

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Speaker 2: aside from Donald Trump's character, there are two highly motivating

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Speaker 2: issues in the election. Number one is border security and immigration,

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Speaker 2: and number two is abortion access. If you go to

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Speaker 2: the rallies or you hear the candidates speak, Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: absolutely hammers the border issue. Similarly, Carmala Harris absolutely hammers

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Speaker 2: reproductive rights. Both of those figure that those are highly

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Speaker 2: motivating issues for their voter bases. And the third factor

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Speaker 2: that I think we should keep an eye on over

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Speaker 2: the next couple of days, or at the very least

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Speaker 2: keep in mind is the polls. Now. Look, I told

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Speaker 2: myself in twenty sixteen that I would not trust the

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Speaker 2: polls in the US. Again. I told myself in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty that I would not trust the polls again, and

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Speaker 2: here we are the problem is that the polsters don't

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Speaker 2: release their modeling. So how do you account for Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's support among young men if young men don't usually

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Speaker 2: vote in the same numbers as other demographics. If people

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Speaker 2: have mislead polsters in the past by telling them, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they were supporting Hillary Clinton or they were supporting Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: when actually they were voting for Donald Trump, will they

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Speaker 2: do that again this year? Or has that sense of

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Speaker 2: embarrassment or shame or whatever it was with Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: in the past. Is that a phenomenon that no longer

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Speaker 2: exists Right now? Krmala Harris is doing worse in the

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Speaker 2: polls than Hillary Clinton was doing at the stage of

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Speaker 2: the race, worse than Joe Biden was doing at the

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Speaker 2: same point. But is there a chance that the polsters

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Speaker 2: have over corrected in their models. The election is this Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: New Zealand time, I reckon it is pretty unlikely that

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Speaker 2: we will have a definitive result on that day, and

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Speaker 2: it's going to take time before either Karmala Harris or

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is officially the president elect. But regardless of

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Speaker 2: who wins, I think, sadly, having traveled around this country,

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Speaker 2: that the American electorate is going to remain is going

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Speaker 2: to remain Bitterly Divided.

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Speaker 1: For more from Saturday Morning with Jack Tame, listen live

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Speaker 1: to newstalks'd B from nine am Saturday, or follow the

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Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio