1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,080
Speaker 1: Tonight, Trump and Pusin are having a call this Ukraine

2
00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:08,320
Speaker 1: ceasefire thirty day seasfire broken by the US on the agenda.

3
00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 1: Kiev has said yes. Russia hasn't responded yet. Ambassador John

4
00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,400
Speaker 1: Bolton was Donald Trump's national security advisor during his first term,

5
00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,800
Speaker 1: and we've got him on the line. Ambassador, Hello, Hi,

6
00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:21,239
Speaker 1: how are you?

7
00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah? Good? Thank you? So do you think these talks

8
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 2: are going to be fruitful?

9
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:30,560
Speaker 3: Well? I think that Putin has carefully manipulated the timing

10
00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:36,120
Speaker 3: here so that Russian forces are on the verge of

11
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:41,640
Speaker 3: eliminating all presents of Ukraine troops and Kursk province inside Russia.

12
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,040
Speaker 3: I think he's dragged out the negotiations so that he

13
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 3: now has a pretty clear idea what Trump may want,

14
00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,560
Speaker 3: and he's counting on direct negotiations between himself and Trump

15
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,840
Speaker 3: to use his KGB manipulative skills on Trump to get

16
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 3: even more sessions out of him. Then Trump's already given Russia.

17
00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,200
Speaker 3: I mean, Trump has effectively flipped the US position from

18
00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 3: being supportive of Ukraine to being supportive of Russia, and

19
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 3: Putin wants to see if he can get more.

20
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,320
Speaker 4: Why has he done that? Some people say Oh, he's

21
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,560
Speaker 4: just pro Russian. What's the reason for it.

22
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,959
Speaker 3: Well, I think Putin's always had an affinity for the

23
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,840
Speaker 3: authoritarian figures. I can't explain it. Maybe we can let

24
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,240
Speaker 3: the shrinks tell us what the reason for it is.

25
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 3: But you know, I don't buy the argument that somehow

26
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,520
Speaker 3: he's become a Russian agent. I think, you know, Vladimir

27
00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 3: Lenin once said that a lot of useful work was

28
00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,760
Speaker 3: done for the communists in the West by what he

29
00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:41,440
Speaker 3: called useful idiots, people who didn't even realize they were

30
00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:42,760
Speaker 3: helping the communists out.

31
00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 2: And I think there's something.

32
00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,960
Speaker 3: Of that going on with with Trump and the Russians

33
00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 3: and the Chinese and others. But I think Putin's skills

34
00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,720
Speaker 3: as a former KGB agent, unfortunately, will suit him very

35
00:01:57,720 --> 00:01:59,000
Speaker 3: well in this conversation.

36
00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 4: How much of this is because from America's perspective, you

37
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 4: can't be at war with everyone all at once. You

38
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 4: can't be taking on China. You've got to separate China

39
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,680
Speaker 4: away from Russia. Somehow, You've got to divide and conquer.

40
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,800
Speaker 3: Well, I think splitting Russia away from China is a

41
00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:22,080
Speaker 3: fine idea, but in the current circumstances, it's just not

42
00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 3: going to work out. They're not going to agree to

43
00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,280
Speaker 3: a ceasefire getting them part of what they want from Ukraine.

44
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,160
Speaker 3: And basically they want all of Ukraine to put the

45
00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,880
Speaker 3: old Russian Empire back together and anyway in exchange for

46
00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,960
Speaker 3: a piece of Ukraine to split from China. Indeed, China

47
00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:42,800
Speaker 3: has strengthened its hold on Russia in this new China

48
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 3: Russia acxis that's been forming because of the war in Ukraine,

49
00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:52,280
Speaker 3: because they've helped Russia escape global financial sanctions by laundering

50
00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:57,000
Speaker 3: sanctioned Russian assets through the opaque Chinese financial system. They've

51
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,080
Speaker 3: significantly increased their purchases of Russia oil and gas and

52
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 3: committed to expand pipeline capacity overland in the future. You know,

53
00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 3: China has a real interest in becoming an Arctic power,

54
00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,360
Speaker 3: if you can believe that using the Northwest Passage that

55
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,240
Speaker 3: now has opened because of global warming. I met with

56
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 3: the Russian several times as National security advisor and asked

57
00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:24,960
Speaker 3: them what they thought of back then when they were

58
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,040
Speaker 3: growing closer to China. They said, no problem, We've got

59
00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,800
Speaker 3: this under control. We're not worried. You know, they were

60
00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:32,400
Speaker 3: wrong then and they're wrong now.

61
00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,119
Speaker 4: John where does all of us leave NATO? I mean,

62
00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 4: obviously Ukraine's not a NATO member, it would like to be.

63
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:40,640
Speaker 4: That'll be part of these peace talks that are going

64
00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,400
Speaker 4: to happen. But does anyone think, you know, has NATO

65
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,800
Speaker 4: been completely undermined by Donald Trump? I mean, would he

66
00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,200
Speaker 4: really send troops into Estonia if they were in trouble?

67
00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,040
Speaker 2: Does anyone really believe that anymore?

68
00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 3: You know, I'm seriously worried about the consequences for NATO

69
00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:02,720
Speaker 3: of a bad settlement for because Trump is not a

70
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,600
Speaker 3: fan of NATO, that's to put it mildly. In twenty eighteen,

71
00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,920
Speaker 3: during the NATO summit in Brussels, he came within an

72
00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,720
Speaker 3: inch of withdrawing. Then I was right there sitting behind

73
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:15,400
Speaker 3: him when he almost did it. He doesn't understand how

74
00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 3: NATO works, or in fact, he doesn't understand how defense

75
00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:24,799
Speaker 3: alliances themselves work. And you know, his idea that will

76
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,400
Speaker 3: only defend NATO countries that are spending two percent or

77
00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,760
Speaker 3: more of their GDP on defense makes the alliance look

78
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:37,400
Speaker 3: like a checkerboard with some in, some out, and just

79
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,960
Speaker 3: undermines the whole idea of collective defense.

80
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:41,920
Speaker 2: I hope that the.

81
00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,760
Speaker 3: Damage to NATO doesn't turn out to be fatal, and

82
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,479
Speaker 3: that Trump doesn't withdraw the United States, it would be

83
00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:52,839
Speaker 3: a catastrophic mistake. But he doesn't understand how it works.

84
00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,680
Speaker 3: He thinks we defend Europe, we get nothing out of it,

85
00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,200
Speaker 3: and Europe doesn't pay. That's not NATO at all. Do

86
00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,120
Speaker 3: benefit from NATO. We shouldn't be ashamed to say it.

87
00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,440
Speaker 3: We're stronger and the West is stronger as a whole

88
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 3: because of NATO. Donald Trump just doesn't get it.

89
00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,320
Speaker 2: And weird does that leave us? You know? Weird? Does

90
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 2: that leave the rest of the world? John?

91
00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,200
Speaker 4: The world order has been tipped on its head. Trump's

92
00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,280
Speaker 4: going after his allies, He's defending his enemies. When you're

93
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,159
Speaker 4: a little country like New Zealand that loves the rules

94
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,160
Speaker 4: based system and we've got our farm minus drop in Washington, DC.

95
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,479
Speaker 2: At the moment, what do we make of us?

96
00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,920
Speaker 3: Well, what I would say is, even though there are

97
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,320
Speaker 3: forty six months left in Trump's presidency, which may seem

98
00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,240
Speaker 3: like a long time, grit your teeth and don't write

99
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,920
Speaker 3: the United States off yet some in Europe are thinking

100
00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,800
Speaker 3: of doing it. I think collectively it's better to stand together.

101
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 3: We'll get through this, this is Trump's Trump didn't campaign

102
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:53,919
Speaker 3: on destroying NATO or getting into a trade war with

103
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,680
Speaker 3: our closest friends around the world. This is not where

104
00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:01,760
Speaker 3: the American people are and it may may take a

105
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 3: real setback somewhere before even Trump is pulled up short.

106
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,960
Speaker 3: But we've got to be patient, think of the long term,

107
00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 3: and hopefully muddle through without too much damage being done

108
00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:17,320
Speaker 3: until we get a president who understands how the system

109
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,000
Speaker 3: should work and would be committed to make it work.

110
00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,120
Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks for your time and your analysis.

111
00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,800
Speaker 1: That's Ambassador John Bolton, former national security advisor to Donald Trump.

112
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,120
Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

113
00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:30,760
Speaker 1: news talks.

114
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,960
Speaker 4: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

115
00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:35,000
Speaker 4: on iHeartRadio.