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Speaker 1: Shane solely from Harbor Asset Management is with me, Shane.

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Speaker 1: Good evening. We're going to look at the markets, Shane.

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Speaker 1: But first Trump and the tariffs. We don't have the

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Speaker 1: details yet, but we've got an outline of some steel

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Speaker 1: and aluminium tariffs from the White House.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's back riling up market. It's getting us excited.

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Speaker 2: Over the weekend, He's had dropped a few interesting announcements.

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Speaker 2: He's talking about more reciprocal tariffs against people that pushed

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Speaker 2: back and his tariffs he's announced going to announced apparently

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Speaker 2: tomorrow twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminium. And

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Speaker 2: he's also talking about having other cracad Our friends in

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Speaker 2: Canada and potentially a Mexico. So that's that's got people

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Speaker 2: a little bit excited.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how the market's reacting here?

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Speaker 2: Look, US market was a bit soft on Friday night.

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Speaker 2: There was some strong data that suggested the US fit

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Speaker 2: A Reserve is not going to be cutting rates in

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Speaker 2: a hurry, but there was a little bit of an

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Speaker 2: anticipation of these reciprocal tariffs. So we did see the

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Speaker 2: US long term bond years up, the US dollar up,

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Speaker 2: and the US sheer market down. Locally, though, today. You know,

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Speaker 2: what we've seen is the US dollar New Zealand dollar

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Speaker 2: cross rate to fifty six and a half cents aluminium.

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Speaker 2: You know, we do explot a little bit of eliminium

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Speaker 2: to the States, about two percent of New Zealand's exports,

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Speaker 2: so not a big ee, but you know there is

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Speaker 2: potential that that global ramifications disruption and our market here

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Speaker 2: in New Zealand slightly down today Official Pike or again

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Speaker 2: leading things down a little bit. It is fifteen percent

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Speaker 2: of the market. Plat more more than fifteen percent. It

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Speaker 2: was down zero point four percent on the basis that

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Speaker 2: these Mexican tariffs are back on the list of things

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Speaker 2: to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Certainly sounds like it, doesn't it. We know retail set

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Speaker 1: a hard time, but jab High five just reported a

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Speaker 1: very strong performance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting one, right, and so that you came out

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Speaker 2: and they were their numbers for this particularly for January,

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Speaker 2: this saying their sales growth up twenty percent for January,

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Speaker 2: which is ten percent higher than expected. And I think

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Speaker 2: this is sort of people trying to say this is

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Speaker 2: an indication the New Zealand economy is showing a sign

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Speaker 2: of bottoming. And we saw companies like at you're building

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Speaker 2: and spark New zeal which is the old telecom muson

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Speaker 2: have a little bit of a pop on the back

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Speaker 2: of that that people thought New Zion was bouncing. The

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Speaker 2: question we'd raise is, you know, is it New Zealand

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Speaker 2: consumers spending more or is it jbi fi just taking

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Speaker 2: share off other retailers. You know, technology is sort of

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Speaker 2: thing people want to put their marginal money into. So

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Speaker 2: it's a tough one to make a quarter stage.

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Speaker 1: Plus, they had some great sales over summer.

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Speaker 2: You did, you did?

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Speaker 1: Hey, The bean z ed Economics team was out today

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Speaker 1: calling for the rbn Z to cut the official cash

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Speaker 1: rate half percent next week. How does that compare with

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Speaker 1: what the market is pricing in?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Look really good, point Ryan. The So they've come out,

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Speaker 2: the beans ad team pretty well regarded. They've come out

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Speaker 2: and said ian due to cut, should cut rates by

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Speaker 2: half a percent next week. They've got their minatory policy statement,

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Speaker 2: it's a quarterly announcement and that would take it to

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Speaker 2: three point seventy five percent. And the Benz team have

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Speaker 2: gon a little bit further and said, look, we expect

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Speaker 2: more rates to be signaled at that time and a

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Speaker 2: bit of a quicker pace and perhaps what was talking

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Speaker 2: about in November, which is our last monetary policy statement,

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Speaker 2: and they're saying we could actually see their ficial cash

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Speaker 2: wrap back to three percent. When we look at what

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Speaker 2: capital markets are saying, definitely there's zero point five or

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Speaker 2: half a percent cut that's been sort of factored in.

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Speaker 2: The markets agree the economy is weak enough and inflation

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Speaker 2: is low enough to support lower rates. But we will

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Speaker 2: see markets react to the tone the words around the

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Speaker 2: cut if indeed there is a cut, of course, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: there is still a little way to go, but the

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Speaker 2: directions pretty much down.

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Speaker 1: Yep, Shane, thank you for that interesting stuff. Shane solely

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Speaker 1: harbor Asset Managements on a Monday evening.

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