1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: Shane Soley, harbor Asset Management is with us right now. 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: Hey Shane, Hey, Now how the markets reacted to this 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: ongoing nonsense from Donald Trump. So on Friday, mister Trump 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: he's Thritaten to impose a fifty percent tariff on the 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: European Union from the first of June because they are 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: being slow and doing a deal with them. And he 7 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: also said I'm going to slap a twenty five percent 8 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: terrify on Apple and any of the device makers at 9 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: the dance start moving to the US. Chimacker didn't really 10 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: like it us. She mark, We've done about point seven percent. 11 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: US bond markets are flat. Not the reaction we've seen 12 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: back in April, when someone like this would have seen 13 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: markets lose their lunch. So pep skinning a lit it 14 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: less less sensitive announcements over the weekend. Sullivon Delaydon, who 15 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 1: is President of the European Commission, set a phone call 16 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: with mister Trump. Said this to a deal. Mister Trump said, 17 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: let's extend things out. So look, you know, it's just 18 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: a reminder again that we had defaces ongoing uncertainty around tariffs. 19 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: We've got a holiday overnight in the US. What we 20 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: can see is that the futures. This is people like 21 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 1: me betting on tins of what they think is going 22 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: to happen. Have got the US market at one percent, 23 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: so we'll be up. He's our market pretty flat than 24 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: the day. We're down slightly. The yearmakers ten point four percent, 25 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: bonds did nothing. The interesting one is the market is 26 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: going anything US to sell US trades coming back, and 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: so the US dollar is the big decliner and so 28 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: the New Zealand dollars up to over sixty against the 29 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: US dollargan today. So yeah, there's a bit of movement there. 30 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: Obviously quite a few companies reporting this week. Who are 31 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: you going to be watching, Shane, Yeah, look well obviously 32 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: globally and the video is down on Wednesday. That will 33 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: be the big well Wednesday, US Thursday news isand fifteen 34 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: companies here in New Zealand Big ones Wednesday, Fish and 35 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: bunk We health Care and in Pratol Thursday, we've got 36 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: Main Freight in Rhyme and we've got five real estate stocks. 37 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: So far the results season has been pretty good, so 38 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: hopefully fingers christ that trend continues over the rest of 39 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 1: the week. What are you expecting from the OCR on Wednesday. 40 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: I mean it's obviously down. Is it down by twenty five? 41 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: Down by fifty? Yeah? No, twenty five is what the 42 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: market has priced in. So from three point five to 43 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: three point twenty five, it's all about the tone. Is 44 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: there going to be more cuts and win and that 45 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: might in turn be influenced by how much weight's placed 46 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 1: on those global factors like tariff risk. You know, things 47 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: have PAP's gotten less bad. We've always listen, you know, 48 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:16,679 Speaker 1: some New Zealand today to get a bit bitter, So, 49 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 1: you know, can I be talk about putting our pauson? Maybe? 50 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: I think go back to what you were talking about 51 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: earlier on. I think the general public would like to 52 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: see a little bit more of a drop. The market's 53 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: only pricing and that the low point and the official 54 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 1: rate cycle is in the Mber twenty five at the 55 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: way out that's two point eighty five percent. So we 56 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: should get to three twenty five this week. It's whether 57 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: how fast and whether we get to twenty five will 58 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: be the key for markets. Yeah, Shane, thanks very much. 59 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. Shane Soley, Harbor Asset Management. For 60 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive listen live to news 61 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the 62 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio