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Speaker 1: So tomorrow our time, a week or so is worth

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Speaker 1: of hype plays out in Alaska, Trump and Putin in

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Speaker 1: a room, Does the war end? Does anything actually happen?

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Speaker 1: Here is the expectation. I'm going to let them negotiate

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Speaker 1: their deal. I'm not going to negotiate the deal. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to let them negotiate their deal. So we're going

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Speaker 1: to be calling President Zelensky if it's a good meeting.

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Speaker 1: If it's a bad meeting, I'm not calling anybody. I'm

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Speaker 1: going home. Matthew Schmid is the director of the International

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Speaker 1: Affairs Program at the University of New Haven. Beck with Us. Matthew,

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Speaker 1: good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 1: Short of an agreement to meet again, are you hopeful

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Speaker 1: that anything more tangible than that comes out of us? Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Look, there's a lot of movement in Ukrainian public opinion

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Speaker 2: right now to really find some way to stop the bleeding.

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Speaker 2: But they're not willing to give away everything in order

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Speaker 2: to get there, and they're not willing to be humiliated

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Speaker 2: for it. And so if Trump can navigate that pathway,

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Speaker 2: then there's something here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So do you see Putin and Zelensky in a

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Speaker 1: room within the next month.

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Speaker 2: I think it's possible. I'll be like Trump, I'll say

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Speaker 2: I don't know. Twenty five percent chance it's possible. I wouldn't.

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Speaker 2: That's moving pretty quick yet.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the giving up land thing, I just don't see

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Speaker 1: how Ukraine does that end save Spice. Is that possible?

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Speaker 2: So there's two ways to look at this. Ukraine has

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Speaker 2: said for a while now that they would be willing

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Speaker 2: to accede to the facts on the ground, you know,

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Speaker 2: more or less. They don't want to give Russia the

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Speaker 2: whole province if it hasn't taken the whole province and

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Speaker 2: that sort of thing, But they do not want to

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Speaker 2: give up legal claim to the territory, particularly Crimea. So

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Speaker 2: they want to hold on to the idea that years

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Speaker 2: down the road they can say this is still Ukrainian territory.

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Speaker 2: Was taken from US, and it's de facto been in

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Speaker 2: Russian territory for ten years or twenty years, but legally

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Speaker 2: it still ours and they want to maintain that position.

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Speaker 2: Russia wants to break them of it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, is that a win for Russia that unfolds that white.

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Speaker 2: It is a win for Russia if they can hold

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Speaker 2: on to the territory right, because you know, possession is

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Speaker 2: ninety percent of the law.

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Speaker 1: Right. So having said that, when the inside that happens,

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Speaker 1: where does Europe stand, because that's the narrative that will

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Speaker 1: he's not stopping there and he's coming out Why is

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Speaker 1: that real?

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, Mertz has said specifically he's back

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Speaker 2: to Ukraine on this that Ukraine's not going to give

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Speaker 2: up legal claim to this territory, so that, you know,

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Speaker 2: seems to be Europe's position overall. And then of course

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Speaker 2: Europe has been gearing up now for a year two

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Speaker 2: years now for you know, the next phase of this,

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Speaker 2: right for World War four if it were, and it's

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Speaker 2: all based on Russia's threat to the EU. You've got

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Speaker 2: the European Defense Fund which was just passed. There's real

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Speaker 2: money now, hundreds of billions of dollars that are being

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Speaker 2: allocated and in the process of being spent in order

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Speaker 2: to essentially create a European defense force, you know, with

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Speaker 2: or without NATO, all aimed at Russia.

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Speaker 1: What I found sort of interesting, Matthew is that he

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Speaker 1: was at the Kennedy sent to Trump yesterday and he

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Speaker 1: was outlining he said five but I think it's six

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Speaker 1: the wars he solved. Is he suddenly beck as a globalist?

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Speaker 1: So I thought he was a lot isolationless. What's he doing?

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Speaker 2: Indeed, that's the question, what is he doing? He's a

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Speaker 2: he's a trumpist, which is a globalist when he wants

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Speaker 2: to be in an isolationist when it matters to him

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Speaker 2: right when it's the best position he's in. This he

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Speaker 2: really does want to stop the war. He really is

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Speaker 2: uncomfortable with wars, with killing with violence. I think if

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Speaker 2: you look at his history and his past comments, but

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Speaker 2: he wants credit more than he wants anything else. He's

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Speaker 2: not interested in a stable, long term, just negotiation that

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Speaker 2: leads to a just and stable long term piece. He

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Speaker 2: just wants to stop it now so he can get credit.

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Speaker 1: I wonder, yeah, I wonder if he wants a Nobill

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Speaker 1: If he gets Russia and Ukraine stopped, does that Nobel

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Speaker 1: Prize territory?

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Speaker 2: I think it has to be considered.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely nice to talk to you as always, Matthew Smid,

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Speaker 1: who's out of the New Haven University with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: More from the Mic Asking Breakfast. Listen live to News

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Speaker 2: Talks at b from six am weekdays, or follow the

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