WEBVTT - Quick Bite: Which NZ regions are defying the national housing trend?

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to a shares these podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>We've touched on sort of the overall the national track,

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<v Speaker 2>I suppose of flat to slightly down actually on house prices.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there any standout regions that are back at bucking

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<v Speaker 2>the trend? Yes?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Queenstown Lakes, you always have to well treat completely differently,

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<v Speaker 1>quite frankly different. I remember many years ago, going twenty

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<v Speaker 1>five years ago, saying to people, Okay, I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>give you on the housing market, but let's just carve

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<v Speaker 1>two islands out of all this Queenstown down there, it

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<v Speaker 1>does its own thing, and at that time, Auckland in

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<v Speaker 1>a city apartment market, because that would have a totally

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<v Speaker 1>different dynamic as well. I'll probably still do that for

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<v Speaker 1>the moment. The Auckland in a city apartment market, it's

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<v Speaker 1>still struggling, quite frankly, obfouely Auckland CBD. There's a rejuvenation

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<v Speaker 1>required there and so that's going to keep things suppressed

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<v Speaker 1>there for a while. Queenstown Lakes, Yeah, obviously limitations on

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<v Speaker 1>the land supply availability, and yet so many people wanting

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<v Speaker 1>to live down there, older people looking to retire down there,

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<v Speaker 1>people who are doing well in business, looking to reward

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<v Speaker 1>themselves with a place down there, and of course young

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<v Speaker 1>people are moving down with a good demand for tradespeople

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<v Speaker 1>and needing somewhere to live. Christ Church I have, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess a positive view on I have for quite some

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<v Speaker 1>time in that affordability is good and that matters are

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<v Speaker 1>all of the time, especially more once we get the

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<v Speaker 1>house prices rising, and also from an investor's point of view,

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<v Speaker 1>with the new debt to income regime in place, where

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<v Speaker 1>banks will only be able to lend where the debt

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<v Speaker 1>for an investor is less than seven times their income

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<v Speaker 1>or for an owner occupy six times their income, that

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<v Speaker 1>will be a factor flattening the house price cycle this

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<v Speaker 1>time around. So when we get really buzzling along, it

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<v Speaker 1>will tend to flatten it a bit there. And that

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<v Speaker 1>will also encourage people to look outside of Auckland earlier

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<v Speaker 1>in the cycle that would have been the case in

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<v Speaker 1>the past, because they may not be to get a

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<v Speaker 1>mortgage for a purchase in Auckland, and so they'll shift

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<v Speaker 1>to looking at another center, maybe nearby or as I say,

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<v Speaker 1>down in christ Jurge earlier than would be the case.

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<v Speaker 1>So there are going to be some different dynamics in

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<v Speaker 1>the cycle this time around also just pays to keep

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<v Speaker 1>an eye on, I guess in some locations where we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing some underlying economic fundamentals cause negative impacts. The fall

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<v Speaker 1>in sheep numbers in New Zealand down to only twenty

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<v Speaker 1>three million, whereas if you go back to about nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>eighty four, there were some seventy six million sheep in

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand. And of course we see the unfortunate news

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<v Speaker 1>out of Timaroo, a large freezing works is going to

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<v Speaker 1>close down. We're probably going to see more of that

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<v Speaker 1>around the country and they will have an impact negatively

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<v Speaker 1>on those very specific town housing markets. And of course

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<v Speaker 1>then with the electricity the price and feelings of security

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<v Speaker 1>about availability going forward, causing factory closures of high importance

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<v Speaker 1>to some small locations as well, and then maybe put

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<v Speaker 1>an overlay of that of still retiring baby boomers they've

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<v Speaker 1>been doing it since two thousand and eight eleven, more

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<v Speaker 1>to come along and so that tends to be of

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<v Speaker 1>benefit to places in the country like your Northland Bay

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<v Speaker 1>a plenty Waycatto Hawks Bay area. I'm still going to

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<v Speaker 1>view there's benefit to come there from to the top

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<v Speaker 1>of the South Island, Marlborough, Nelson and Tasman that there's

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<v Speaker 1>some positives to come from. Auckland is shifting down there

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<v Speaker 1>as well, so there's just a few thoughts, but regionally

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<v Speaker 1>your things can get fairly specific. In New Zealand, investing

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<v Speaker 1>involves the risk you might lose the money you start with.

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<v Speaker 1>We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor.

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<v Speaker 2>We also recommend breading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.

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<v Speaker 1>Everything you're about to see and here is current at

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<v Speaker 1>the time of recording.