Speaker 1: You're listening to a shares these podcast.
Speaker 2: We've touched on sort of the overall the national track,
Speaker 2: I suppose of flat to slightly down actually on house prices.
Speaker 2: Are there any standout regions that are back at bucking
Speaker 2: the trend? Yes?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Queenstown Lakes, you always have to well treat completely differently,
Speaker 1: quite frankly different. I remember many years ago, going twenty
Speaker 1: five years ago, saying to people, Okay, I'm going to
Speaker 1: give you on the housing market, but let's just carve
Speaker 1: two islands out of all this Queenstown down there, it
Speaker 1: does its own thing, and at that time, Auckland in
Speaker 1: a city apartment market, because that would have a totally
Speaker 1: different dynamic as well. I'll probably still do that for
Speaker 1: the moment. The Auckland in a city apartment market, it's
Speaker 1: still struggling, quite frankly, obfouely Auckland CBD. There's a rejuvenation
Speaker 1: required there and so that's going to keep things suppressed
Speaker 1: there for a while. Queenstown Lakes, Yeah, obviously limitations on
Speaker 1: the land supply availability, and yet so many people wanting
Speaker 1: to live down there, older people looking to retire down there,
Speaker 1: people who are doing well in business, looking to reward
Speaker 1: themselves with a place down there, and of course young
Speaker 1: people are moving down with a good demand for tradespeople
Speaker 1: and needing somewhere to live. Christ Church I have, I
Speaker 1: guess a positive view on I have for quite some
Speaker 1: time in that affordability is good and that matters are
Speaker 1: all of the time, especially more once we get the
Speaker 1: house prices rising, and also from an investor's point of view,
Speaker 1: with the new debt to income regime in place, where
Speaker 1: banks will only be able to lend where the debt
Speaker 1: for an investor is less than seven times their income
Speaker 1: or for an owner occupy six times their income, that
Speaker 1: will be a factor flattening the house price cycle this
Speaker 1: time around. So when we get really buzzling along, it
Speaker 1: will tend to flatten it a bit there. And that
Speaker 1: will also encourage people to look outside of Auckland earlier
Speaker 1: in the cycle that would have been the case in
Speaker 1: the past, because they may not be to get a
Speaker 1: mortgage for a purchase in Auckland, and so they'll shift
Speaker 1: to looking at another center, maybe nearby or as I say,
Speaker 1: down in christ Jurge earlier than would be the case.
Speaker 1: So there are going to be some different dynamics in
Speaker 1: the cycle this time around also just pays to keep
Speaker 1: an eye on, I guess in some locations where we're
Speaker 1: seeing some underlying economic fundamentals cause negative impacts. The fall
Speaker 1: in sheep numbers in New Zealand down to only twenty
Speaker 1: three million, whereas if you go back to about nineteen
Speaker 1: eighty four, there were some seventy six million sheep in
Speaker 1: New Zealand. And of course we see the unfortunate news
Speaker 1: out of Timaroo, a large freezing works is going to
Speaker 1: close down. We're probably going to see more of that
Speaker 1: around the country and they will have an impact negatively
Speaker 1: on those very specific town housing markets. And of course
Speaker 1: then with the electricity the price and feelings of security
Speaker 1: about availability going forward, causing factory closures of high importance
Speaker 1: to some small locations as well, and then maybe put
Speaker 1: an overlay of that of still retiring baby boomers they've
Speaker 1: been doing it since two thousand and eight eleven, more
Speaker 1: to come along and so that tends to be of
Speaker 1: benefit to places in the country like your Northland Bay
Speaker 1: a plenty Waycatto Hawks Bay area. I'm still going to
Speaker 1: view there's benefit to come there from to the top
Speaker 1: of the South Island, Marlborough, Nelson and Tasman that there's
Speaker 1: some positives to come from. Auckland is shifting down there
Speaker 1: as well, so there's just a few thoughts, but regionally
Speaker 1: your things can get fairly specific. In New Zealand, investing
Speaker 1: involves the risk you might lose the money you start with.
Speaker 1: We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor.
Speaker 2: We also recommend breading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.
Speaker 1: Everything you're about to see and here is current at
Speaker 1: the time of recording.