1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to a shares these podcast. 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: We've touched on sort of the overall the national track, 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 2: I suppose of flat to slightly down actually on house prices. 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 2: Are there any standout regions that are back at bucking 5 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: the trend? Yes? 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:20,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, Queenstown Lakes, you always have to well treat completely differently, 7 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: quite frankly different. I remember many years ago, going twenty 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: five years ago, saying to people, Okay, I'm going to 9 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: give you on the housing market, but let's just carve 10 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: two islands out of all this Queenstown down there, it 11 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: does its own thing, and at that time, Auckland in 12 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: a city apartment market, because that would have a totally 13 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: different dynamic as well. I'll probably still do that for 14 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: the moment. The Auckland in a city apartment market, it's 15 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: still struggling, quite frankly, obfouely Auckland CBD. There's a rejuvenation 16 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: required there and so that's going to keep things suppressed 17 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: there for a while. Queenstown Lakes, Yeah, obviously limitations on 18 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: the land supply availability, and yet so many people wanting 19 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: to live down there, older people looking to retire down there, 20 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: people who are doing well in business, looking to reward 21 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: themselves with a place down there, and of course young 22 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: people are moving down with a good demand for tradespeople 23 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: and needing somewhere to live. Christ Church I have, I 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: guess a positive view on I have for quite some 25 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:24,479 Speaker 1: time in that affordability is good and that matters are 26 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: all of the time, especially more once we get the 27 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: house prices rising, and also from an investor's point of view, 28 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: with the new debt to income regime in place, where 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: banks will only be able to lend where the debt 30 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: for an investor is less than seven times their income 31 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,399 Speaker 1: or for an owner occupy six times their income, that 32 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: will be a factor flattening the house price cycle this 33 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: time around. So when we get really buzzling along, it 34 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: will tend to flatten it a bit there. And that 35 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: will also encourage people to look outside of Auckland earlier 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 1: in the cycle that would have been the case in 37 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: the past, because they may not be to get a 38 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: mortgage for a purchase in Auckland, and so they'll shift 39 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: to looking at another center, maybe nearby or as I say, 40 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: down in christ Jurge earlier than would be the case. 41 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: So there are going to be some different dynamics in 42 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: the cycle this time around also just pays to keep 43 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: an eye on, I guess in some locations where we're 44 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: seeing some underlying economic fundamentals cause negative impacts. The fall 45 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 1: in sheep numbers in New Zealand down to only twenty 46 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: three million, whereas if you go back to about nineteen 47 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: eighty four, there were some seventy six million sheep in 48 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: New Zealand. And of course we see the unfortunate news 49 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: out of Timaroo, a large freezing works is going to 50 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: close down. We're probably going to see more of that 51 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: around the country and they will have an impact negatively 52 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: on those very specific town housing markets. And of course 53 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: then with the electricity the price and feelings of security 54 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: about availability going forward, causing factory closures of high importance 55 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: to some small locations as well, and then maybe put 56 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: an overlay of that of still retiring baby boomers they've 57 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: been doing it since two thousand and eight eleven, more 58 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: to come along and so that tends to be of 59 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: benefit to places in the country like your Northland Bay 60 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,679 Speaker 1: a plenty Waycatto Hawks Bay area. I'm still going to 61 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: view there's benefit to come there from to the top 62 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,239 Speaker 1: of the South Island, Marlborough, Nelson and Tasman that there's 63 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 1: some positives to come from. Auckland is shifting down there 64 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: as well, so there's just a few thoughts, but regionally 65 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: your things can get fairly specific. In New Zealand, investing 66 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: involves the risk you might lose the money you start with. 67 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,519 Speaker 1: We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor. 68 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: We also recommend breading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest. 69 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: Everything you're about to see and here is current at 70 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: the time of recording.