1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: Kyoda. 2 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Fears of 4 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: a war in the Middle East are growing after a 5 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 2: senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last week. It's 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 2: prompted Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters to urge New Zealanders 7 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:33,600 Speaker 2: in Lebanon and Iran to leave now while options remain available. 8 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: Those in Israel are also being asked to consider whether 9 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: they need to remain in the country. It comes as 10 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: the war between Israel and Hamas nears the ten month 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: mark with no signs of abating, despite multiple efforts from 12 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 2: the US and Middle Eastern leaders to try and bring 13 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 2: peace to the region. To discuss the ongoing threat of 14 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 2: war today on the Front Page where joined by University 15 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 2: of Otago professor doctor Leon Goldsmith. Leon, can you give 16 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: us an overview of the players we're talking about here 17 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: and the role they play? 18 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,839 Speaker 3: So, yeah, when we're talking about the main regional players, 19 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 3: we're talking about the Iranian regime and the elite political 20 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 3: elite in Iran, we're talking about its key appendages or 21 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 3: allies and Lebanese Huzbala, led by Hassan Nasarala, the Alhuthi 22 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 3: movement currently occupying or controlling northwest Yemen, and of course 23 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 3: the Israelis, and there are US allies, but also the 24 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 3: silent actors in all of this are the Arab States 25 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 3: and the Gulf of so Jordan and Egypt, who are 26 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 3: saying one thing and often doing another. So it's a 27 00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 3: very complicated scenario. We also have the Turks, who are 28 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 3: getting more balakos in terms of their eratric as well, 29 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: who are threatening also to intervene into various ways. But 30 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 3: I'm not sure how much is that is just verbosity. 31 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 2: With that context in mind, what do we know so 32 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 2: far about the death of Ismail Khaniyeh. 33 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 3: We don't know a lot. We do know that he 34 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 3: was probably the target of an assassination attempt. We don't 35 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 3: know precisely the reason why, but one theory is that 36 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 3: the Israelis are looking to try to provoke Iran and 37 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 3: its access into some kind of direct confrontation with Israel, 38 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 3: whereby Israel would have the upper hand, especially with the 39 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 3: US right there in proximity and on maximum a lot. 40 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 3: So I think this is the kind of cat and 41 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 3: mouse game that we're seeing, which is extremely dangerous. Whether 42 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 3: or not there was some kind of internal collaboration inside 43 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 3: your own as well. In terms of the assassination of 44 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 3: ismahanir we just don't know. We know that a lot 45 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 3: of Iranian of fish rules and security and officials have 46 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 3: been arrested by the regime and around. So there's a 47 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 3: lot still yet to learn about what exactly has transpired, 48 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: but needless to say that the situation is extremely tense. 49 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 4: Smite Hania was the most prominent political figure in Hama's ranks, 50 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 4: leading courts on a potential ceasefire agreement with Israel. Now 51 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 4: the question is who will replace him, and perhaps more significantly, 52 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 4: does the assassination mean an end to negotiations towards and 53 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 4: in Israel's war on Gaza. 54 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 3: He died in Tehran, so I think what's quite significant 55 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: about that is Ismahania, the leader of Hamas, usually resides 56 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 3: in Doha, which is the capital of Kata. So in 57 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 3: kata he's essentially under the sort of de facto protection 58 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: of the Katari sake, but also the US, their biggest 59 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: monetary based in the Middle East, is there, so he 60 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: was quite safe. The Israelis wouldn't dare to stir things 61 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 3: up and cuta so he was safe. But as soon 62 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 3: as he left Kuta and went to Iran for the 63 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 3: inauguration of the new president Mussu Possessikin in Iran, he 64 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 3: was exposed, fatally exposed, and they got him. So this 65 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: was also a major blow to Iran's prestige in terms 66 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 3: of its ability to provide security for its allies and 67 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 3: its guests. But there was another key resistance Axis commander 68 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 3: for Shukhot who was killed in Beirut. He's second in 69 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 3: command to Hassan Israli, so he's extremely important in the 70 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 3: overall alliance. So the two assassinations together was a significant 71 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 3: blow to the Iranian led Exis overall. And this is 72 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 3: what the Israeli's sort of claiming some kind of victory 73 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 3: in Netanya, who's becoming extremely vocal about this. 74 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: And I can't imagine Qatar would be impressed with these 75 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 2: assassinations given its attempts peace talks. 76 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 3: Right No, Kato has come out and been very critical 77 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,040 Speaker 3: of the Israelis for basically blowing all of their efforts 78 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 3: to try to bring the parties together and get some 79 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 3: kind of a hostage or seats for ideal but at 80 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 3: the same time, the Katharies have played a very inflammatory 81 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 3: role themselves through their wall to wall coverage of Israeli 82 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 3: atrocities through El Jazeera. So the Katharies are playing politics 83 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:30,480 Speaker 3: as well as all of these autocratic regimes are. But yes, 84 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: the peace talks that the CUTHARISO are trying to mediate 85 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 3: are definitely off the table for now. 86 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 2: The Lebanese militant group has BOLLA has launched a drone 87 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,440 Speaker 2: attack on northern Israel in response to what it says 88 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 2: is a strike carried out by Israel in several villages 89 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 2: in south Lebanon. Is this a worrying escalation. 90 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 3: At this stage? It's probably fairly consistent of what we've 91 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: been seeing along that border for quite some time already. 92 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 3: I mean, they've been hurtling twenty to forty to sixty 93 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 3: rockets per day across there at various times. So if 94 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 3: there is going to be an escalation on Elevenese border, 95 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 3: it would be much more than this. Eleven Isa's BOLLA 96 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 3: has the capacity to launch thousands of missiles at Israel 97 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 3: if the order had been given to launch everything. So 98 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,679 Speaker 3: I think we're yet to see what could possibly happen 99 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: on that border. 100 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 2: Iran has said that it does not want to escalate 101 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 2: tensions in the region, but that it needs to punish Israel. 102 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 2: What can we make of that statement, Well. 103 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: They need to restore their sense of security. Really, I mean, 104 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 3: the actual individuals involved in the Iranian lead resistance access 105 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 3: feel personally insecure. They need to re establish some kind 106 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 3: of deterrence because what Israel has done has shown that 107 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 3: it can reach anyone anywhere if it wants to. So 108 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 3: the reason why they don't want to have a wider 109 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 3: escalation is because they know that they can't win that escalation, 110 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 3: but they need to be able to restore the terrence. 111 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 3: So what we might see is some kind of a 112 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,239 Speaker 3: limited strike which we have limited effect, like we saw 113 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 3: in April earlier this year. But what will probably hear 114 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 3: most of all is a lot of language, a lot 115 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 3: of talk about international law on these things, when the 116 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 3: Iranians don't actually care about those things. They actually care 117 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 3: about raw power. But they will try all different instruments 118 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 3: to try to regain some kind of sense of security 119 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 3: within this situation. 120 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 2: Israel doesn't seem to be pulling back at all in 121 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 2: this conflict. Is escalation of tensions something that Israel actually 122 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 2: wants to see happen. 123 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 3: Perhaps, Yeah, I think we need to nuance a little 124 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 3: bit here between the various actors inside the Israeli politics. 125 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 3: So I think Nathaniahu has shown very clearly that he 126 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 3: wants to see escalation. He doesn't want to see a 127 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 3: quick end to conflict, whether it be in Gaza or 128 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 3: Lebanon or with the Iranians. I think that he knows 129 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: that when the war finishes, he's going to jail un 130 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 3: serious corruption charges and probably on a budget other things from 131 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 3: his conduct in recent times. So he personally is looking 132 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 3: to orchestrate and instrumentalize things to maintain the sense of 133 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 3: escalation and security risk to Israel, which means that people 134 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 3: have to rally around and therefore he has some kind 135 00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 3: of impunity within that. But having said that, Israel's security 136 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 3: posture in terms of its military establishment is very much 137 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: on higher art And I think what October seven did 138 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 3: is it shifted their paradigm from trying to manage their 139 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: enemies that what they see is their enemies in Lebanon 140 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 3: and Gaza and elsewhere, to try to actually reduce and 141 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 3: eliminate them. So I think they actually shifted that paradigm 142 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 3: somewhat after October seven at the basic security apparatus level. 143 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 3: But Nhania, who's becoming increasingly problematic as someone who is 144 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 3: actually trying to manipulate things to his own political agenda, 145 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 3: and most many Israelis actually see this, and this is 146 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 3: part of the major issue that we are facing. 147 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 2: What do you make of Benjamin Nettna whose leadership? How 148 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 2: responsible is he for all that's going on at the moment. 149 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 3: I think he bears a high degree of responsibility, and 150 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 3: I think everyone and a lot of people inside and 151 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 3: outside Israel are seeing this. The next election is not 152 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 3: until twenty twenty six, so there's been a huge amount 153 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 3: of calls for some kind of early election or some 154 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 3: way to get rid of him, but according to the 155 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:42,439 Speaker 3: Israeli constitutional framework, short of a military coup, we're sort 156 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 3: of stuck with him. So I think that he has 157 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 3: really inflamed things by his work with their right wing 158 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 3: extremists within Israeli politics, who are genuinely religious extremists and 159 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 3: want to see the elimination of Palestinians from Waye to Israel. 160 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 3: He's played with in that respect, the fact that he 161 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 3: is trying to preserve his personal security, but even trying 162 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 3: to attack the judiciary in Israel has been doing that 163 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,199 Speaker 3: since early last year and tried to reduce the oversight 164 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 3: of the institutions within Israelsia. He has increasingly dictatorial on 165 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 3: narcissistic tenancies, and I think we need to be very 166 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 3: clear about that, and a lot of people inside Israel 167 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:25,559 Speaker 3: want him out of the way. 168 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 2: We've seen recently countries all around the world, including New Zealand, 169 00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: calling for its citizens to leave places like Israel, Iran, 170 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:35,439 Speaker 2: and Lebanon. 171 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: New Zealand's joined the United States and the United Kingdom 172 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 1: telling its people to leave parts of the Middle East. 173 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: There are fears of retaliation after the assassination of two 174 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: senior leaders of militant groups Hamas and Isbelah. Winston Peters 175 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: says the government's urging New zealand is in Lebanon and 176 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: Iran to leave now while options remain available. Mister Peters 177 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 1: also recommends New zealand Is consider whether or not they 178 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: need to stay there. 179 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 2: Do you think this is indicative of the growing threat 180 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 2: of a war in that region or another war in 181 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 2: that region? 182 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 3: Well? Absolutely, I mean Lebanon's already a highly insecure environment, 183 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 3: has been for some time, and also all parts of Israel. 184 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 3: You run the risk of you know, there's a drone 185 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 3: attack that killed people even from Yemen. But whether or 186 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 3: not there's going to be a major war anytime soon, 187 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 3: I think there's you know, those diplomatic warnings always highly 188 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 3: on the on the side of caution. I think what 189 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 3: we're going to see here is a lot of rhetoric 190 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 3: from the Iranians, maybe a limited face saving attack, but 191 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 3: I think that the real response by the Iranians is 192 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 3: going to come sometime down the track, and it's going 193 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 3: to come when it's a surprise, something similar to what 194 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 3: we saw in October seven, except probably be something on 195 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 3: a much more magnified scale than when we saw in 196 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 3: October seven last year. So I think that's the real 197 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 3: danger here, that there will be a strategic pause and 198 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 3: then a major escalation further down the track when the 199 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 3: Ranians feel like they're under less threat from the US 200 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 3: and Israeli forces. 201 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 2: The conflict in Gaza is ongoing alongside this. Around forty 202 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 2: thousand Palestinians have been killed, around two million people are 203 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,959 Speaker 2: at risk of famine. Is that conflict going to become 204 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 2: secondary if a war breaks out or if Iran does 205 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 2: do something to assert its power in the region. 206 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 3: I'm not really sure because I think Hamas has shown 207 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 3: a certain degree of resilience. They just keep popping up 208 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 3: all over the guards of strips, so I think that's 209 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 3: going to become another front in that war. A very messy, 210 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 3: very in terms of the damage to civilians and as 211 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 3: we've seen, as you mentioned the idea of discovered another 212 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 3: huge tunnel going under the border of Egypt beg enough 213 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 3: to drive vehicles through. So they're still learning a lot 214 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 3: about in terms of Hamasa's capacity in the Gaza Strips 215 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 3: that Iran and be very keen to maintain that front 216 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,439 Speaker 3: and keep the israel Defense forces bogged down in Gaza, 217 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 3: So I think it's going to become one of the fronts. 218 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 3: The Lebanese front is going to be massively destructive, just 219 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 3: because of the capacity of HBOAH with over one hundred 220 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: and fifty thousand rockets, their military, their fighters are very 221 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 3: battle hard and from over a decade of fighting in Syria, 222 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 3: so I think there's just scale for multiple fronts in 223 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 3: this war. Jordan is particularly nervous in terms of what 224 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 3: could happen in the West Bank as well. 225 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 2: Where does this conflict leave the international community? Do you 226 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 2: expect that the US or maybe the UK would enter 227 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: a war if that was to happen, or would they 228 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 2: need to take a step back and leave these countries 229 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 2: to their own devices. 230 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 3: Well, unfortunately, the US is under the current administration, is 231 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 3: still maintaining its so called ironclad promise to maintain the 232 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 3: Israeli state, So whether they want to be involved or not, 233 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 3: the US might get dragged into this, and I think 234 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 3: this is part of the gambit of Netanyahu to try 235 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 3: and pull the US into this conflict on his side. 236 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 3: The UK more ambivalent but tending to also side with 237 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 3: the US le alliance. So there is actually dangerous potential 238 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 3: for wider powers to become involved. Russia was in obviously 239 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: in Tahran to discuss options after the assassination in Tahran. 240 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 3: Chinese are an unknown quantity, but they're increasingly involved with 241 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 3: the Palestinian issue. So there is a lot of scope 242 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: here for widening and globalizing of this conflict, which we 243 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 3: need to watch very very careful as the international community. 244 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 5: That is really the question here, where does this end? 245 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 5: We've been seeing for months now, this tit for tach 246 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 5: whether it's Hezbollah and Israel or Iran and Israel, could 247 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 5: lead to an all war, the US would step in 248 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 5: and defend Israel. So again, as we've been saying the 249 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 5: real few years, that this could ask lead into it 250 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 5: all of war and draw. 251 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 3: The US in. 252 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: I mean, New Zealand's a pretty small player on the 253 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 2: world stage. Hey, but is there anything that New Zealand 254 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 2: can actually do to help ease these tensions? 255 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 3: Well, I mean people trust New Zealand on all sides. 256 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 3: I mean they only spent over a decade in the 257 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 3: Middle East and Israeli Arab countries and other countries. So 258 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 3: I think our voice is something that should be heard, 259 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 3: and I think that we need to be very careful 260 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 3: when we do speak that we're speaking from an informed position. 261 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 3: It's a very complicated environment. If we're just making misinformed statements, 262 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 3: we can in fact inflate one side or the other. 263 00:15:37,800 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 3: So we need to actually make sure that we're talking 264 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 3: from a solid platform of information, and I think we 265 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 3: need to get up towards that. I think at the 266 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 3: moment we're sort of struggle. We tend to hear some 267 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 3: sort of very blanket statements, which I don't think necessarily 268 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 3: help the situation. New Zealand needs to be a responsible voice, 269 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 3: but also well informed voice. 270 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 2: What do you think we'll see happen over the next 271 00:15:58,520 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: coming weeks? What? 272 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 3: I could be wrong because the senior diplomats are saying 273 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 3: that within twenty four or forty eight hours that the 274 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 3: Iranians and his ball are going to strike. But we'll 275 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 3: see if I'm right about this that I think that 276 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 3: we'll probably see some kind of an Iranian strike which 277 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 3: is not actually going to do any damage because of 278 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 3: Israel's air defenses. But further down the track, I think 279 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 3: in a few months time, six months time, we might 280 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 3: see something fairly major. We've got chemical weapons which could 281 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 3: be brought into play some kind of ground offensive. As 282 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 3: I mentioned, there's dozens of tunnels that the Israelis haven't 283 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 3: even found, which come under the Lebanese border and also 284 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 3: the Egyptian border. I was in a Druid village last year. 285 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 3: This is one of the villages that got hit by 286 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 3: Habola rockets, and what I noticed in those houses is 287 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 3: they have chemical weapons filters and they're very concerned about 288 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 3: chemical weapons attacks coming from either Lebanon or from Syria. 289 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 3: Who has known supplies of chemical weapons. I don't even 290 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 3: want to talk about nuclear weapons, but we just don't 291 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 3: know why the Iranian capability is in this regard as well. 292 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 3: So nothing in the short term, but I think we're 293 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 3: very traveling signs over the medium to long term. 294 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:17,400 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Leon. That's it for this episode 295 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 2: of The Front Page. You can read more about today's 296 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:24,639 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news coverage at enzedherld dot co dot z. 297 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles with sound 298 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 2: engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front 299 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 300 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 2: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.