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Speaker 1: So we've got the GDP number out for Q three

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Speaker 1: later later today. It's expected to show a significant bounce

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Speaker 1: back after Q two's horror number, which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: should also be revised. Sharon's Honor is A and z's

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Speaker 1: chief economist and with us morning.

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Speaker 2: Sharon, good morning.

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Speaker 1: So do you have Q three at one percent growth?

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Speaker 2: We do, but we are a bit nervous that some

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Speaker 2: of that could turn up in revision, So the headline

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Speaker 2: number might look a bit different, but the overall story

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Speaker 2: should be that some of the corners get knocked off

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Speaker 2: the volatility, and likely the overall level of GDPs will

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Speaker 2: be revised up. That typically happens at this time of

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Speaker 2: the years that to Zion books under the sofa, at

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Speaker 2: some annual numbers that get put into it at this

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Speaker 2: time here.

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Speaker 1: What do you expect the revision on Q two to be?

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Speaker 2: Oh, we don't predict revisions, but I would say that

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Speaker 2: of the Q three number, that's point the one percent

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Speaker 2: we're expecting, maybe half is a noise, sort of a

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Speaker 2: rebound from the weaknesses you two and half is sort

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Speaker 2: of cyclical drenths that we're seeing coming through. So that

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Speaker 2: sort of is just sort of some idea of the

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Speaker 2: potential range of revisions. But yeah, no, it's hard enough

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Speaker 2: to predict the latest number, let alone predicting well.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the moment towards twenty twenty six, it looks

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Speaker 1: like it's going to be a lot better, right, But

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Speaker 1: then you get the services number like we did this week,

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Speaker 1: and it casts a bit of doubt. What do you think.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really interesting that some of the undercators appointing

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Speaker 2: in different directions, But I guess that's what you're going

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Speaker 2: to get at turning points, isn't it. You know, the

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Speaker 2: events where one business is saying actually things are taking

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Speaker 2: off and the one next to them looks at them

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Speaker 2: and disbelief. It is just that kind of patchiness that

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Speaker 2: you see. That said, in our business survey, we have

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Speaker 2: seen quite a wide range of sectors saying that's not

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Speaker 2: just that they're more optimistic, but that the here and

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Speaker 2: now has improved. We'll get an update on that tomorrow

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Speaker 2: along with consumer confidence as well.

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Speaker 1: Now, the news I see the new Reserve Bank governor

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Speaker 1: has made quite an effort to intervene in the markets,

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Speaker 1: the wholesale markets. Is it actually done very much?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? We saw the new John DOLLA down a bit.

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Speaker 2: We saw rates down a bit too. They're still well

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Speaker 2: up on where they were because fundamentally, the market has

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Speaker 2: just reassessed the prospects of further cuts and now believes

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Speaker 2: there is a bank when they say that unlikely, and

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Speaker 2: indeed the government did reiterate that they think they're done cutting.

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Speaker 2: Her point was more that they're not likely to be

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Speaker 2: hiking anytime soon. Technically the market was pricing hikes from July.

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Speaker 2: That I wouldn't interpret it literally because it was more

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Speaker 2: a reflection of large flows of money going through, including

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Speaker 2: everyone racing to fix their mortgage, trying to race through

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Speaker 2: a small door, and just causing some liquidity there.

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Speaker 1: She seems to be quite keen on the idea of

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Speaker 1: having another OCR decision in the calendar year, and it

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Speaker 1: sounds like possibly over summer. Would you be into that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it makes sense, and so far as

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Speaker 2: it is a very long break. She has also just

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Speaker 2: demonstrated that they can influence the market outside of that timetable,

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Speaker 2: but there is certainly very useful discipline process that they

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Speaker 2: go through. So it is a bit more where the

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Speaker 2: speech is a bit more ad hoc. So in that regard, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think it would certainly bring new Jean Moore into

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Speaker 2: line with international norms.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff, Sharon, Thanks very much. Enjoy your day that

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Speaker 1: Sharon's on the A and Z Chief Economist.

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Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks.

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