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Speaker 1: The information provided in this program is of a general

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Speaker 1: nature and is not intended to be personalized financial advice.

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Speaker 1: We encourage you to seek appropriate advice from a qualified

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Speaker 1: professional to suit your individual circumstances. The Trump trades have

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Speaker 1: all played out, Bitcoin, big tech, and bond yields are

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Speaker 1: all surging. As has come back became a reality what

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Speaker 1: assets money may flow to next?

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Speaker 2: So you know, if we have an equity market that

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Speaker 2: could rise by twenty percent within the year, that's pretty significant.

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Speaker 1: What do you think, Greg, the lesson should be for

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Speaker 1: investors on the prediction market versus the polls? Is the

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Speaker 1: lesson always follow the money? Oh?

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Speaker 2: It seems to be, doesn't it.

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Speaker 1: Major US stock markets, the S and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: and Nasdaq have hit new records, marking the best post

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Speaker 1: election day in their history. That's on top of the

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Speaker 1: lead up to the US election, where the same markets

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Speaker 1: had their best pre election performance since nineteen thirty six.

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Speaker 1: According to investor Pedia, investors were favoring bank stocks as

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Speaker 1: well as the US dollar and gold. As the result

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Speaker 1: rolled in, Bitcoin had its biggest moment here we Go,

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Speaker 1: having an all time hive seventy five thousand US dollars

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Speaker 1: on America's election night, so she couldn't have written a

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Speaker 1: better script.

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Speaker 3: Having it hit a new all time high on the

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Speaker 3: night of the election.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the most important things is we

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Speaker 1: have the first bitcoin president.

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Speaker 2: Hello, bitcoiners, thank you very much. Hello, it's good to

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Speaker 2: be with you.

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Speaker 1: The frenzy flowed into Black Rocks Bitcoin exchange traded fund,

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Speaker 1: taking in one billion US dollars of inflows in the

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Speaker 1: first twenty minutes of the market opening post election result.

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Speaker 1: On the night, the prediction markets bet the polls with

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Speaker 1: billions of dollars in punts price singing a Trump victory

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Speaker 1: before it was actually officially announced. Traders executed that accordingly.

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Speaker 1: On the bond market, This is how the short term

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Speaker 1: two year and long term ten year bond yields responded

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Speaker 1: on election night, going vertical, according to JB. Drax on Or.

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Speaker 1: That was on top of increases in the weeks leading

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Speaker 1: up as trade is priced in risks to inflation from

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Speaker 1: Trump's proposed plan, including higher tariffs on imports. Analysis of

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Speaker 1: candidate campaign promises suggested Trump would trigger a deepening in

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Speaker 1: the US fiscal deficit of around seven point seven trillion

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Speaker 1: US dollars.

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Speaker 3: Just because the promises has given of significant tax cuts

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Speaker 3: are generally estimated to be far larger than the ones

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Speaker 3: that Democrats have, and I think we would end up

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Speaker 3: in a deficit situation.

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Speaker 1: Whether that occurs or is allowed by Congress is yet

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Speaker 1: to be seen, but US based economists have their concerns.

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Speaker 3: The United States all deficits a little bit like those

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Speaker 3: fancy credit cards that'll tell you what the credit limit is.

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Speaker 3: There is a credit limit, but the only way to

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Speaker 3: find out is a by hitting it, and I think

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Speaker 3: that's what has economists concerned.

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Speaker 1: Tiger Brokers Chief strategy Officer Greg Bolland has been watching

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Speaker 1: all as it's closely before, during, and after the US election.

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Speaker 1: Look at Tesla, I mean that was not as high

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Speaker 1: as fifteen percent on stage this morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well so it's nearly there again.

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Speaker 1: So never met against Elona.

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Speaker 2: Now, I've never been against Elon is obviously back the

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Speaker 2: winning horse here Peces.

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Speaker 1: If it's anything like the last Trump presidency, stocks will

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Speaker 1: be in for a boost. Great, good to see you,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for doing this big week.

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Speaker 2: Yes, thank you, medicine. Lovely to see you again. And

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Speaker 2: he's a huge week this week and a huge weeks

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Speaker 2: last week. So last week we had two hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty six of the S and P five hundred stocks report,

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Speaker 2: and then this week obviously we've got the election and

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Speaker 2: tomorrow morning news on in time the Federal Reserve, it

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Speaker 2: probably will well ninety chance of also reducing rates by

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Speaker 2: another twenty five basis points.

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Speaker 1: Great, mostly between us until the weekend. Then that's when

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Speaker 1: we can restore it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and around them. Walk on to Halp Medison last Saturday,

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Speaker 2: just to keep myself in tune.

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Speaker 1: Oh that's great. Like, I want to ask you about

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Speaker 1: your Trump trades, if you don't mind sharing, how were

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Speaker 1: you prepositioned going into this and if you don't mind

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Speaker 1: telling us, how have they played out for you?

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Speaker 2: My own personal trades mostly been selling puts against stocks

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Speaker 2: that I think are going to rise. So with stocks

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Speaker 2: like quoll Con they're reporting is tomorrow, the stock prices

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Speaker 2: around one sixty yesterday, it's around one seventy today, and

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Speaker 2: so I'm happy to buy it at one fifty. So

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Speaker 2: if I sell a put, I make some money out

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Speaker 2: of that put premium that someone's prepared to pay me.

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Speaker 2: That's how I've done it, just by selling productions on

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Speaker 2: markets that on stocks that I think are going.

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Speaker 1: To go higher. You're always the derivatives guy, I love it.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about all those broad Trump trades that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing across markets right now. Equities are certainly up in

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Speaker 1: the US across the board significantly, big tech, real winner, banks,

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Speaker 1: a big winner Bitcoin, USD. I mean, give me the

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Speaker 1: color on how this has played out and how strong

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Speaker 1: it is.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So the main thing is what the markets want

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Speaker 2: is certainty, and this has been a very decisive win

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Speaker 2: for Trump and also the Republicans in terms of the

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Speaker 2: Senate and also Congress. So it is definitely a move

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Speaker 2: in their case the red or to the right towards

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Speaker 2: it Republican government. In terms of the Trump trades, as

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Speaker 2: you said, there's certain stocks that are done particularly well.

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Speaker 2: And if we look at at the markets today, the

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Speaker 2: Trump related stocks themselves, like Trump Media, is actually more

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Speaker 2: or less flat, although yesterday it was up around fifty

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Speaker 2: or sixty percent in the after ours market last night. Today,

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Speaker 2: the financials have been the big winner and definitely the

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Speaker 2: top two out of the stocks that have gone higher

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Speaker 2: is Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both up. JP Morgan

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Speaker 2: up ten and a half percent, and Godman stacks up

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Speaker 2: about up a little bit more than that, but also

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Speaker 2: the likes of Morgan, Stanley and City and Wells Fargo

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Speaker 2: all up between sort of eight and a half and

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Speaker 2: twelve and a half percent, so they'll been the biggest

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Speaker 2: winner in terms of stocks. And if you look at

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred out of the top

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Speaker 2: twenty gainers, eleven are financials.

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Speaker 1: While financial is up so strongly, I'm assuming that that's

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Speaker 1: because investors are now taking out the risk of extra regulation, right.

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Speaker 2: Yes, extra regulation, tax perhaps and benefiting smaller companies. Companies grow,

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Speaker 2: they need to then list or or get more capital,

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Speaker 2: so they go to the big banks for that capital.

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Speaker 2: And also more certainty abound interest rate it's going forward

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Speaker 2: and inflation coming down definitely. The job numbers last week

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Speaker 2: were pretty weak. The ICN numbers this week were reasonable,

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Speaker 2: So the chances of probability of a rate cut on

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Speaker 2: Friday is very high.

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Speaker 1: Where do you think equities could go from here? If

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Speaker 1: you look at history, how have US equity markets performed

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Speaker 1: when there has been such a decisive like this election

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Speaker 1: result and also a Republican result.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so in terms of in terms of the

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Speaker 2: results so we can we can look at charts in

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Speaker 2: terms of returns the day after, the week after, the

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Speaker 2: months after, and the year after, if you like. And

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Speaker 2: if you look at the last two elections, so that

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Speaker 2: Biden election, the day of the election was certain that

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Speaker 2: he was the president, the market went up two point

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Speaker 2: two percent, and the SMP five hundred wreas previously and

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Speaker 2: under trumpet went up one point one percent. And the

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Speaker 2: average between nineteen eighty four and now is actually a

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Speaker 2: decrease of about zero point five of a percent. So

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Speaker 2: the SMP rallying today around two point six percent is

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Speaker 2: higher than it's ever done in the last period from nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Eighty well, so this is actually rare, and that's considering

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Speaker 1: that it was already the best pre election performance since

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Speaker 1: like nineteen thirty six heading into this. So this all

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Speaker 1: net is pretty incredible for equity.

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Speaker 2: Market three and the equity markets will continue to go

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Speaker 2: higher in my opinion. And if you look at the

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Speaker 2: returns on the SMP five hundred in the year after

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Speaker 2: an election, it's around sixteen and a half percent. Under Biden,

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Speaker 2: it was around twenty four percent. Trump around twenty four

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Speaker 2: percent also, and also Obaman his last term it was

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Speaker 2: up around twenty six percent. So you know, if we

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Speaker 2: have an equity market that could rise by twenty to

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent within the year, that's pretty significant for

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Speaker 2: people who wish to invest inequities and significant for New

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Speaker 2: Zealanders who have qvserver funds, and a lot of these

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Speaker 2: server funds invest in these top tier companies in the US.

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Speaker 1: No such thing as an absolute short thing, though, Greg No,

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Speaker 1: if we consider the risks. It is proposed that Trump

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Speaker 1: would be more inflationary to the US economy through things

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Speaker 1: like direct tariffs on imported goods into the US. How

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Speaker 1: could slightly higher inflation if that occurs, if we get

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Speaker 1: more borrowing and a larger fiscal deficit in the US,

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Speaker 1: how could that impact US company earnings?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly so in terms of in terms of the

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Speaker 2: tariffs and the like. It's definitely something that the market

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Speaker 2: may may increase in. Moody's put out a report saying

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Speaker 2: that under a Trump government, inflation could go from the

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Speaker 2: two and a half percent to three and a half

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Speaker 2: percent by the end of twenty twenty five. Under House

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Speaker 2: would have maybe stayed the same or even belower. So

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Speaker 2: it definitely is cause for worry in terms of inflation,

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Speaker 2: prices may go up, but one percent is not too

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Speaker 2: high in terms of you know, under the Biden administration,

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Speaker 2: it was the third worst term in terms of inflation

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Speaker 2: and an average inflation rate for that whole term. It

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Speaker 2: was a third worst since the nineteen eighties and.

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Speaker 1: The third largest fiscal deficit on record, referred only to

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Speaker 1: twenty Queen twenty one, which recovered years, so absolutely excepit.

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Speaker 2: What grees are the things that you mentioned in terms

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Speaker 2: of physical deficit, there's definitely cause for concern. If Trump

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Speaker 2: does doesn't increase or that reduces tax rates or keeps

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Speaker 2: tax rates the same, then the income earned for the

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Speaker 2: from the federal government is less. So you know that

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Speaker 2: both both parties are fiscally irresponsible. There's no doubt about that.

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Speaker 1: More inflation could actually be good for a higher fiscal deficit,

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Speaker 1: because the US government could just inflate more of that

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Speaker 1: dead away, couldn't they correct.

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Speaker 2: But also the biggest problem under the Biden administration, the

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Speaker 2: differential between inflation and wages and wage growth and inflation

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Speaker 2: growth or price growth if you like, was prices were

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Speaker 2: three or four times higher than wage growth, and at

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Speaker 2: the end, wages were slightly ahead in terms of growth.

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Speaker 2: And so if under a Trump administration more jobs are created,

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Speaker 2: particularly in smaller companies because of tariffs and protectionism, then

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Speaker 2: you know, wage growth should be hopefully above the three

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Speaker 2: and a half percent that that inflation is. So you know,

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Speaker 2: the whole premise of the Trump trade and the Trump

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Speaker 2: election has really been the effect on the economy or

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Speaker 2: the Biden administration. And you know, after after COVID, most

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Speaker 2: most governments have been elected out, so you know, he

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Speaker 2: was there with fiscal easing or least physical policy to

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Speaker 2: to help create more jobs and keep the economy going.

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Speaker 2: And the same happened in New Zealand, and you know

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Speaker 2: we're paying the cost now, but that also caused high inflation.

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Speaker 1: We aren't quite seeing the inflation potential expectations on the

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Speaker 1: equities market, but it is playing out quite strongly on

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Speaker 1: the bond market. Fine yields had been surging, they were

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Speaker 1: pretty much vertical on that immediate election result. That means,

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Speaker 1: with the inverse relationship, the bond prices are falling. What

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Speaker 1: does that mean for fixed income investors that are in

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Speaker 1: bonds and US treasuries at the moment and could it

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Speaker 1: longer term signal actual better returns in US treasuries certainly.

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Speaker 2: So in terms of the ten year tenure end of

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Speaker 2: the curve is definitely a lot higher, but interest rates

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Speaker 2: coming down at the short end, particularly for drop again

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Speaker 2: by another twenty five basis points for the cash rate

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Speaker 2: this Friday. There's definitely a steepening of the curve between

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Speaker 2: the short term rates and long term rates, and so

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Speaker 2: people will either move into shorter term products like the

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Speaker 2: treasuries and the like, where the yields may go up

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Speaker 2: because they're going to be borrowing more so therefore they

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Speaker 2: have to offer more interest and more risk obviously, but

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Speaker 2: also you know, people will move out of treasuries, long

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Speaker 2: longer term treasure bonds, in long term corporate bonds into

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Speaker 2: equities because equity markets are likely to rally from here.

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Speaker 1: But coin bitcoin, where does that go from here? All

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Speaker 1: time high on election night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, So I shares black rocks. It has

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Speaker 2: the predominant ETF which started at the beginning of the year.

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Speaker 2: That was up eight point eight percent overnight. And then

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Speaker 2: if you look at the individual Trump trade stocks that

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Speaker 2: could benefit from from bitcoin changes, coin Base was up

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Speaker 2: thirty two percent this morning and Marason Digital what nineteen percent?

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Speaker 2: So significant increases in the in the prices of those

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Speaker 2: related to bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

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Speaker 1: How do you see a Trump presidency actually changing the

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Speaker 1: game for bitcoin investors? Material? Is it?

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Speaker 2: Hopefully over time there'll be more regulation of bitcoin. That's

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Speaker 2: probably against Trump's thing in terms of regulation, But you know,

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Speaker 2: people are investing in these sorts of products need certainty,

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Speaker 2: and the likes of an ETF on bitcoin like the

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Speaker 2: ib which is offered by Ice Shares and Black Crock

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Speaker 2: provides a way or mechanism of investing in these markets

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Speaker 2: without having to store the bitcoin or worry about your

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Speaker 2: passwords and all that sort of thing. So move movement

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Speaker 2: towards some more certainty around the process of clearing and

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Speaker 2: settlement and trading and security of the bitcoin will help.

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Speaker 2: And and you know, definitely the likes of the ETFs

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Speaker 2: helped with that, and that will that may long continue.

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Speaker 1: And now under this leadership it will be more help

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Speaker 1: than hinder you think.

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Speaker 2: Create in district correct, Yes, and definitely he has been

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Speaker 2: a big proponent of bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: What do you think, greg, the lesson should be for

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Speaker 1: investors on the prediction market versus the polls is the

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Speaker 1: lesson always follow the money.

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Speaker 2: Well it seems to be, doesn't it. So if you

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Speaker 2: look at the polls right up till you know, the

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Speaker 2: till the boats closed, it was a fifty to fifty game.

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Speaker 2: Whereas the the the tipsters and the I could have

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Speaker 2: said Trump was going to win for from weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: So in the odds of you know, your payout being high,

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Speaker 2: Honor trump victory was quite low. So you know, definitely

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Speaker 2: follow the money and then that's whether what's happening at

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Speaker 2: the moment.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time, Greg, always good

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Speaker 1: to chat.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you.