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Speaker 1: Devin Funds Management, Greg Smith. Welcome to Monday Mate morning,

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Speaker 1: Mike Ran, what do you reckon? Yeah, we're braced for

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Speaker 1: some volity. I think that's pretty much pretty much the theme.

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Speaker 1: So I guess there's gonna be a lot of eyes

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Speaker 1: on the oil price. As you mentioned, you know, are

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Speaker 1: we going to get a spike of sort of five

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Speaker 1: to ten percent or as we're going to go much

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Speaker 1: high as things escalate. So you know, we've seen some

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Speaker 1: predictions that prices could go well north of one hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars a bell, and no one really knows. It's currently

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Speaker 1: around around about seventy five. There's one major economics group

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Speaker 1: over the weekend that modeled a few scenarios, and now

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Speaker 1: you can the most severe case, we get to one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty hour use inflation goes to six percent.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, that's certainly not ideal and obviously would complicate

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Speaker 1: an already complicated picture for the central banks. Of course,

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Speaker 1: we had drone Power last week saying there and no

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Speaker 1: rush to cut rates. Rising all prices also will be

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Speaker 1: a handbrake on economic growth, and yeah, just let the

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Speaker 1: impact to board equity markets. You know, do we get

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Speaker 1: a bit of a risk off sell off. I suppose. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there was sort of one point to sort of take

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Speaker 1: away that you know, we have seen shop like this

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Speaker 1: in the past without sort of understanding what's happening. And

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Speaker 1: markets have shown to be quite resilient. So you look

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Speaker 1: at where Middle East as sort of bubbled higher in

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Speaker 1: the past and past conflicts, your markets have tended to recover. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: regardless of what they do in the short term. So

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Speaker 1: you go back to the two thousand and three Iraq

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Speaker 1: invasion invasion the benchmark with ease and P five hundred

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Speaker 1: that fell nine percent in the week prior a couple

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Speaker 1: of months later it was five percent high, So I

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Speaker 1: have to fall in nine percent. So quite a useful

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Speaker 1: reminder from vices might not to be too spooked by

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Speaker 1: selling lids to pick up in volatility and the spot

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Speaker 1: of the headlines. It is often the worst time to sellers.

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Speaker 1: It was also proven the period since Trump's Liberation Day.

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Speaker 1: Obviously the mark old off in the aftermath and then

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Speaker 1: went on to rebound and then some So yeah, we

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Speaker 1: have to wait and see. Obviously plenty of interests in

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Speaker 1: those developments. Indeed, and I mentioned Andrew Bailey, so he's

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Speaker 1: not moving he's sitting at four two five, and yet

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Speaker 1: the retail sales down two point seven. That's material, isn't it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right. Yeah, the UK consumers not in sort of

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Speaker 1: great knack. I mean they had had a good month prior,

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Speaker 1: but not not so much, not so much in May.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it was well below forecasts for a half

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Speaker 1: percent different retail sales and it was the biggest drop

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Speaker 1: since Decene betweeny twenty three. Food still sales particularly weak

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Speaker 1: and they were down five percent. So yeah, UK households

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Speaker 1: are scaling, expending and cost of living pressures and the like,

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Speaker 1: closing DIY sales they were down it as well. But

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Speaker 1: April been quite sunny, so that perhaps changed a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, UK shops they had splurged, but this came

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Speaker 1: to a real hult. And also on the volume side,

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Speaker 1: they were down one point three percent on a year ago.

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Speaker 1: That's the biggest drop since April twenty twenty four. So

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Speaker 1: eve it was pretty weak. Supermarkets said lower of volumes,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, other retailers were under pressure and that's also

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Speaker 1: what they've been reporting of late. So the interesting thing, though,

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Speaker 1: Michael thought was that on the same day there was

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Speaker 1: actually a consumer Conference. In the extra release GfK's one

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Speaker 1: and it actually rose two points, although needative eighteen probably

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Speaker 1: not too much to shout about. It was the best

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Speaker 1: reading since twenty twenty two. So there's a bit of optimism,

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Speaker 1: maybe the Genoa economic outlook, but everyone sort of still

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Speaker 1: seems to think that their finances are not in great shape,

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Speaker 1: and maybe they're also aware that the government's finances aren't

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Speaker 1: exactly tip top either. So UK public sector borrowing seventeen

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Speaker 1: point seven billion pounds in May. It's the second highest

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Speaker 1: for the month on record, highest spending link to you,

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Speaker 1: yesed it inflation? So UK public sector debt now ninety

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Speaker 1: six point four percent of GDP. So you won't ease

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Speaker 1: up the pressure on UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, No, it

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Speaker 1: will not. Have you seen the price of rice in Japan?

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Speaker 1: It's double? God, yeah, double, isn't it? So it's absolutely incredible.

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Speaker 1: So the staple food, of course very politically sensitive, up

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Speaker 1: one hundred and two percent in May. So core inflation

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Speaker 1: in Japan two year high, up three point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: That's the fastest pace since January twenty thirty three. That

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Speaker 1: was above estimates. Cost of living inflation that's going to

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Speaker 1: be a big election topic next month for the government.

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Speaker 1: They've managed to sort of get their popularity up a little.

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Speaker 1: They've been trying to lower the cost of grain. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: the bag of Japan, they're certainly going to take an

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Speaker 1: interest in that print. I've been looking to raise interest

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Speaker 1: rates as long as the economy recovers and get inflation

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Speaker 1: back towards the two percent target, but it's actually been

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Speaker 1: above that for more than three years. Rates of course

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Speaker 1: are very low in Japan half percent, so a few

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Speaker 1: flies in the ointment. We haven't going to trade deal

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Speaker 1: yet with Washington, so they're waiting for that and obviously

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Speaker 1: their next economy so they really do need and talked

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Speaker 1: about that previously that they've got these obviously twenty five

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Speaker 1: percent auto turfs, so they want to see a deal there.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, the central banks or the Bank of Japan,

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Speaker 1: like other central banks, are split on how this is

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Speaker 1: all going to impact inflation. Are they going to see

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Speaker 1: cheaper Chinaese imports driving down prices or films generally just

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Speaker 1: going to raise prices and wages. So we'll have to see.

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Speaker 1: And of course now we have the oil price to

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Speaker 1: also sort of contend with, So yeah, a big week

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Speaker 1: for a number of economies. All right, numbers please, So

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Speaker 1: the day on Friday was actually up point one percent

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Speaker 1: fully two two zero six, the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred was down point two percent, and nasdek was down

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Speaker 1: half percent. For one hundred was down point two percent,

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Speaker 1: Nickey down point two percent, as was the A six

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Speaker 1: two hundred that finished at eight five zero far Indian

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Speaker 1: x fifty. Obviously, we were closed to the Mataiki gold

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Speaker 1: down two dollars three three and sixty eight US and

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Speaker 1: ounce oil close of course after their strikes, but prior

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Speaker 1: to that was up thirty four cents, consuming three spot

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Speaker 1: eighty four a barrel for WTI. And the currencies key

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Speaker 1: we lower against the US fifty nine point seven, fled

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Speaker 1: against the US dollar ninety two point five, down slightly

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Speaker 1: against the British pound forty four point four. Jepany gen

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Speaker 1: eighty seven point two's that was up point one percent

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Speaker 1: this week, Mike, we've got card spending with trade data locally.

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Speaker 1: We've got consumer conference here as well. I'm sure use

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Speaker 1: existing home sales, durable goods, use inflation. We've got Pow

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Speaker 1: testifying before SENATECE so that'll be interesting and we've got

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Speaker 1: doing some Pedix and Nike, but of course a lot

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Speaker 1: of interest on developments of Prospector around go well mate

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Speaker 1: Greg Smith, Devin Funds Management. For more from the Mic

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Speaker 1: Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks there'd be from

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