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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks it B.

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Speaker 1: Follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 1: Talking with you all afternoon. It's Matt Heathan Tyler Adams

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Speaker 1: Afternoons News Talks it B.

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Speaker 2: Well, the wait is over, no more sleeps until budget

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Speaker 2: day because it is here right now, and there are

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Speaker 2: some changes within that budget as you can expect. Key

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Speaker 2: we save it included, but two have a quick analysis

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Speaker 2: and break down some of the key highlights. We are

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Speaker 2: joined by our political editor Jason Wills. Jason get a mates.

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Speaker 3: Good afternoon boys, how are you doing? Happy budget afternoon?

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Speaker 3: I know we already said happy budget Day, but happy

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Speaker 3: after budget afternoon. We have just come out of the

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Speaker 3: most stressful ten minutes of the year for a reporter. Basically,

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Speaker 3: we have this ten minute window where we're allowed to

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Speaker 3: file stories, so we're making sure the logistics of what

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Speaker 3: happens in terms of that news bulletin that you just heard,

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Speaker 3: and the incredible magnanimous Sophie trigger huss as always from

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Speaker 3: the governments or from the budget lock up room down

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Speaker 3: to zb's offices. So we're ready to go. How are

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Speaker 3: you feeling, Brad? I'm feeling good.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's a lot of detail to go through,

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Speaker 4: but I think we're pretty well across at some big

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Speaker 4: stuff that we sort of knew about, some stuff we

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Speaker 4: probably didn't think would come through, but then a whole

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Speaker 4: lot of other small details that we're still going to

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Speaker 4: have to get wrap our heads around for the next hour.

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Speaker 5: Well, what are the highlights? Should we kick right into

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Speaker 5: the highlights?

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Speaker 3: We'll kick right into the highlights. I would have to say,

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Speaker 3: probably the one thing in here that you're going to

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Speaker 3: be hearing about for the rest of today and potentially

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Speaker 3: the next couple of years is those changes to Kiwi Saver.

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Speaker 1: It.

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Speaker 3: We knew that this was coming, but we've got some

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Speaker 3: confirmation today. Budget twenty twenty five improves kei We Saves

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Speaker 3: to encourage Kiwis to save more for their first home

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Speaker 3: and retirement while making the scheme more fiscally sustainable. Now,

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Speaker 3: how's Nikola Willis going to do this? Well, she is

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Speaker 3: raising the default rate of employees and matching employer kei

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Speaker 3: We Saver contributions from three to four percent of salary

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Speaker 3: and wages. And that's face then over three years, so

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Speaker 3: the default rage. The default rate before was three percent

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Speaker 3: that is being lifted progressively to four percent. They're also

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Speaker 3: doing a number of other things and a lot of areas,

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Speaker 3: and you're going to hear us go through those in

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Speaker 3: the coming hour. But you know, in terms of other

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Speaker 3: major highlights, I mean, going into the budget, Brad, we

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Speaker 3: heard a lot about the reprioritization in terms of the

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Speaker 3: pay equity changes, and we've seen those numbers today.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, I mean, the government's looking to save nearly thirteen

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Speaker 4: billion dollars from not proceeding with the previous pay equity

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Speaker 4: changes that we're going to come through. That is a

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Speaker 4: substantial amount of the total savings that is funding or

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Speaker 4: allowing that funding for other initiatives. And Budget twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: five there is still money that the government has kept

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Speaker 4: aside for PA equity claims into the future, but they're

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Speaker 4: not telling us about it at the moment. They call

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Speaker 4: that commercially sensitive and they think it will threaten those

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Speaker 4: future conversations. But there is money set aside, indeed.

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Speaker 3: And Nicola Willis has called this the growth budget, she's

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Speaker 3: called it the no BS Brad budget, Brad, what are

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Speaker 3: you calling it?

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Speaker 4: I'm calling this the switch budget because you've seen a

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Speaker 4: lot of initiatives here that you're getting more from great,

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Speaker 4: but at the same time something's got to pay for it.

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Speaker 4: Other stuff as being cut out, so you're getting a

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Speaker 4: switch from one thing to another when it comes to

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Speaker 4: government spending.

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Speaker 6: This time, bellas, this is incredibly interesting. What we're going

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Speaker 6: to do.

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Speaker 2: We're going to play some messages and then come back

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Speaker 2: because we really want to zero in on that KEYWI

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Speaker 2: saver and those changes that will be significant for a

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Speaker 2: lot of businesses. So just hold there and we're going

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Speaker 2: to have some fun with it. It is ten past two.

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Speaker 2: We're joined by our chief political reporter Jason Walls and

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Speaker 2: CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. If you've got any questions

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Speaker 2: throughout this hour about the budget, text them through nine

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Speaker 2: two ninety two back fore shortly here on News Talks dB.

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Speaker 1: Going through the budget with a fine toothcom It's Budget

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News

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Speaker 1: Talks dB.

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Speaker 2: Good afternoon, and we are breaking down budget twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five with our chief political editor Jason Wolves kDa. Jason,

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Speaker 2: welcome back in good afternoon, and we've also got CEO

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Speaker 2: of Infometrics and principal economist Brad Olson.

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Speaker 6: Great to have you as well, Brad, It's great to

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Speaker 6: be here.

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Speaker 2: So let's break down keep we save it because this

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Speaker 2: will be big for a lot of people, affecting a

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Speaker 2: lot of New Zealanders and also a lot of businesses.

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Speaker 2: So Brad, just a question for you, how do you

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Speaker 2: think this will land for businesses? Having to increase that

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Speaker 2: contribution rate another percent? Is that going to worry some

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Speaker 2: of them?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think it will be a question for particularly

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Speaker 4: some of the smaller businesses around how they achieve that.

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Speaker 4: I mean they're going to have to They're going to

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Speaker 4: have to figure out, of course, a way to make

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Speaker 4: it work. But I think that will then come down

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Speaker 4: to the conversation that they'll have with employees. You know,

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Speaker 4: do they just top it up in general? Does that

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Speaker 4: mean that you might have a little bit less take

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Speaker 4: home pay and a bit more that goes into the

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Speaker 4: Kiwi saver. Most most importantly, the government's also given this

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Speaker 4: a bit of time to bed in, so it's not

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Speaker 4: coming through late to night on budget night. That four

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Speaker 4: percent contribution rate not coming through until twenty twenty eight,

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Speaker 4: So a bit of time for businesses to figure out

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Speaker 4: how they pay for it at the same time and

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Speaker 4: probably most importantly, yes, you might have to pay a

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Speaker 4: bit more on Kei we Saver, but at the same

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Speaker 4: time you now a to have a much more greater

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Speaker 4: level of advanced appreciation. So I feel like from a

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Speaker 4: knit business point of view, Yep, you'll have to make

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Speaker 4: some key we saver changes, but you're probably happy enough overall.

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Speaker 5: So with that sort of a rollout time, I guess

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Speaker 5: people a lot of it will be done in contract

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Speaker 5: negotiations going forward, as opposed to just happening right now

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Speaker 5: and being taken out of people's wages.

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Speaker 3: Well, that was the impression that Nicola Willis gave, because

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Speaker 3: that was one of the questions that I asked her

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Speaker 3: in the budget lock up. I mean, she was at

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Speaker 3: pains to talk about growth. This is the growth budget,

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Speaker 3: and I'm thinking, hang on a second, doesn't sound very

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Speaker 3: growth inducive for a company, a small company that's having

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Speaker 3: to ratchet up those key we Saver contributions. So exactly, so,

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Speaker 3: this is going to be the time when you're gonna

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Speaker 3: if you're out there and you're talking to your employer

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Speaker 3: right now, this is the time to have those conversations

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Speaker 3: about with you actually what or how this works within

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Speaker 3: your employment contribution as well. I mean, there is a

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Speaker 3: number of other things that happened in the key We

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Speaker 3: save a space, and Nicola Willis was quite keen to

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Speaker 3: point out that this was and she even referenced Michael

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Speaker 3: Collin when she was in there talking about such. You've

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Speaker 3: been rereading some of his speeches and she we just

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Speaker 3: have this overall sense that superannuation and retirement in New

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Speaker 3: Zealand is it's a bit risky. We've got some problems

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Speaker 3: into the future, and this is the government tackling it

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Speaker 3: head on. And there's also another component of this. The

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Speaker 3: annual government contribution will be halfed from twenty five cents

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Speaker 3: for every dollar a member contributes each year up to

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Speaker 3: a maximum of two hundred and sixty dollars. Members with

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Speaker 3: an income of more than one hundred and eighty thousand

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Speaker 3: dollars will no longer receive the government contribution. So they're

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Speaker 3: taking a bit of liability off their own books here.

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Speaker 5: Yes, So I mean what percentage of the people is

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Speaker 5: that going to affect that one hundred and eighty k

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Speaker 5: that's not going to save them a lot of money.

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Speaker 4: Is it, Well, it saves them a bit over time,

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Speaker 4: But I think importantly it's one of those areas where

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Speaker 4: it's just pretty hard to defend these days and say, look,

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Speaker 4: we're government's going to give five hundred and twenty one

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Speaker 4: bucks every year to everyone, including those earning over one

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Speaker 4: hundred and eighty k. It just seems sort of unreasonable

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Speaker 4: and unsustainable. But I mean, the question I think going

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Speaker 4: forward will be will this sort of change how people save?

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Speaker 4: And some of I mean guys, you guys probably are

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Speaker 4: a presumer and key we saver as well. I mean,

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Speaker 4: what's your initial.

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Speaker 3: Reaction to it?

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Speaker 4: Is it going to shift what you do with your

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Speaker 4: key saver or are you just going to sort of

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Speaker 4: plod along?

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Speaker 5: Look, I'm pretty I'm pretty bullish ki we save a

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Speaker 5: kind of guy. I pump in a lot more than

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Speaker 5: I need to. And yeah, I'm the same. I mean,

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Speaker 5: it's too much away, but yeah, but yes, some of

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Speaker 5: it I don't.

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Speaker 2: Tell us more, tell us more, man, I know, I've

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Speaker 2: got to say, I've got to say, fellows an extra

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Speaker 2: one percent.

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Speaker 6: Is it going to be a game changer? No, not

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Speaker 6: for me.

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Speaker 2: Will it be an extra incentive for perhaps younger workers?

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Speaker 2: To stay in that scheme, which is better for them

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Speaker 2: and better for us as a country. If we up

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Speaker 2: those saving levels, then I think that is a good thing.

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Speaker 2: But I do worry again about the extra pressure on

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Speaker 2: businesses at a time when they need all the help

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Speaker 2: they can get to boost that confidence to get us

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Speaker 2: out of the rutler and at the moment, but as

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Speaker 2: you say, Brad, moving it over the space of three years,

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Speaker 2: next year going to three point five and then on

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Speaker 2: April the first moving up to four percent, we'll give

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Speaker 2: them time to adjust, right.

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Speaker 4: Definitely, But I think as well, I mean, don't discount

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Speaker 4: how much of an impact it could have.

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Speaker 7: It.

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Speaker 4: I mean I know that you know, if you've been

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Speaker 4: in Key we save for a while. It might not

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Speaker 4: sound like a lot. But one of the scenarios that

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Speaker 4: comes through here. Let's assume that you've got a working parent, right,

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Speaker 4: they're currently earning about sixty thousand dollars. They've got they're

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Speaker 4: going to have a child at say twenty eight, and

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Speaker 4: then another one at thirty one. They're going to take

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Speaker 4: some savings out when they're thirty or so, they need

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Speaker 4: to purchase a home. That means that before they were

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Speaker 4: going to have about fifteen thousand, eight hundred bucks for

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Speaker 4: their first home deposit. Under these changes, for someone who

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Speaker 4: is starting to move through from age twenty five today,

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Speaker 4: they'll be now nine percent better off up to seventeen

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Speaker 4: thy two hundred from fifteen eight hundred.

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Speaker 6: So it does.

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Speaker 4: It makes a difference in terms of the house to posit.

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Speaker 4: More importantly, you go out to sixty five when you're

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Speaker 4: needing to use your Keiwi saver. Previously that working parent

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Speaker 4: would have had just under four hundred k of Kei

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Speaker 4: we Save to use. Now under this it'll be over

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Speaker 4: five hundred k. That's a big savings.

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Speaker 3: And the other side of this, of course is that

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Speaker 3: big Kei We Saver capital pool in terms of how

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Speaker 3: much money there is there and to invest. And Nikola

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Speaker 3: Willis is really wanting to drive that sort of Kiwi assets.

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Speaker 3: I mean, at the moment ken we Save a membership

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Speaker 3: is three point three million people with a total of

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Speaker 3: one hundred and eleven point eight billion dollars in funds

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Speaker 3: under management. Even this small ratcheting up of three to

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Speaker 3: four is going to see that pie grow a lot bigger,

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Speaker 3: and Nicola Willis is helping a lot of that can

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Speaker 3: be used on funding some Kiwi infrastructure and some Kiwi assets.

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Speaker 5: Any mention of all at all around Super.

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Speaker 4: Not directly. I think, in fact, that's probably the one

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Speaker 4: area the government doesn't want.

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Speaker 6: To talk about that.

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Speaker 4: I have looked at the numbers and I can tell

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Speaker 4: you that in the current fiscal year, New Zealand's going

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Speaker 4: to be spending twenty three billion dollars on New Zealand Super,

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Speaker 4: fourteen percent of total crown spending more than the education budget.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the numbers are starting to get a little

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Speaker 4: bit worrying in terms of just how big they are.

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Speaker 4: So look, every time we talk about Jesus the government

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Speaker 4: living within its means or not, remember that fourteen fifteen

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Speaker 4: percent of every single dollar that you were contributing through

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Speaker 4: on your text is going straight to Super and nothing else.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very very nicely said, hey, there's a question here, yea,

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Speaker 2: Hey guys, could you please ask you experts. Would it

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Speaker 2: not have made more sense for the government or the

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Speaker 2: employee contribution to go up to four percent and then

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Speaker 2: they remove the tax on the three percent from the

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Speaker 2: employer contribution.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there is a part of that that's come through

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Speaker 4: the government. I think is actually booking a little bit

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Speaker 4: of that additional tax revenue that they're getting. So, because

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Speaker 4: they need to sort of make the scheme sustainable, they're

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Speaker 4: actually now booking some of that additional revenue base maintaining

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Speaker 4: the tax on the employer contribution they're bringing forward. I

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Speaker 4: think it's something like half a billion dollars or so

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Speaker 4: that comes through. So they could have, but it would

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Speaker 4: have meant that the change was not only affecting households

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Speaker 4: and businesses, but also would have been affecting the government's

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Speaker 4: own spending. And I just don't think they were quite

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Speaker 4: as willing to let that one happen.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, very good fellows.

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Speaker 2: We're going to take a break, but when we come back,

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Speaker 2: let's have a chat about where the money is coming from.

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Speaker 2: That has been a big question with this budget, so

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Speaker 2: stand by for that. We're joined by Jason Walls, our

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Speaker 2: political editor, and CEO of Infometrics Brad Olsen. It is

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Speaker 2: twenty past two.

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Speaker 1: Who's getting paid and what's going on the backburner? Budget

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams. News

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Speaker 1: Talk za'd be Yes.

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Speaker 2: We are analyzing budget twenty twenty five with our political

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Speaker 2: editor Jason Walls and CEO of intermedi and for Metrix,

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Speaker 2: Brad Olson Fellers.

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Speaker 6: Great to have you with us.

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Speaker 3: Thank you so much to Tay team.

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Speaker 5: The big question always is where is the money coming from?

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Speaker 3: Show me the money. That was Nichola Willis in the

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Speaker 3: house yesterday and you'll remember she learned at the feet

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Speaker 3: of John Key because she was in his office and

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Speaker 3: that was his iconic blind back in twenty eleven. But yes,

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Speaker 3: of course a Nicola Willis budget is going to be

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Speaker 3: all about where does the money come from? And of

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Speaker 3: course I mentioned it at the top, the changes to

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Speaker 3: to pay equity and to run you through those again,

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Speaker 3: eleven billion dollars operating over the forecast period that is

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Speaker 3: four years, and an additional one point eight billion allocated

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Speaker 3: for capital investments. Or take those two together you're looking

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Speaker 3: at thirteen billion dollars extra over the forecast period over

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Speaker 3: the next four years. Now, before the budget, there was

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Speaker 3: this interesting back and forth, wasn't there between the likes

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Speaker 3: of the act parties Brook van Velden and David Seymour

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Speaker 3: and the Prime Minister and Nikola Willis. In fact that

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Speaker 3: David Seymour said that Brookade quote saved the budget with

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Speaker 3: this amount of money, and Brad looking at as, I

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Speaker 3: don't think there's any way that could have got anywhere

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Speaker 3: near what they wanted to do without this money. No,

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Speaker 3: that's true.

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Speaker 4: I mean the government could not have balanced the books

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Speaker 4: that they've got today. They couldn't have announced a lot

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Speaker 4: of these further initiatives. I think realistically, what would have

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Speaker 4: happened if they didn't as a government make these pay

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Speaker 4: equity changes. You wouldn't have seen some of those other

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Speaker 4: bigger announcements, in particular the likes of the one point

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Speaker 4: seven billion dollars or so for the investment boost like

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Speaker 4: that would have been just completely impossible to even provide for.

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Speaker 4: Government only had one point three billion dollars of operating allowance.

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Speaker 4: It's found it committed an extra six point seven billion

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Speaker 4: dollars in this budget of new spending. But to sort

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Speaker 4: of make all the numbers work, it's had to find

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Speaker 4: over five point three billion dollars worth of savings, a

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Speaker 4: lot of that coming from the pay equity changes.

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Speaker 5: But some pay equity deals are still going to go through.

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Speaker 3: I believe, well that's the government's priority on this. They've

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Speaker 3: said from the outset that you know they're not canceling

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Speaker 3: women's pay has been sort of the tagline and the

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Speaker 3: attack line from the opposition. In fact, Nicola Willis actually

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Speaker 3: while we were in there, encouraged unions to continue prosecuting

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Speaker 3: pay equity various different arrangements that they've gotten pay equity

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Speaker 3: cases going forward as well. But I mean Nicola Willis

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Speaker 3: did outline the magnitude of the increased amount of liability

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Speaker 3: on the books from these pay equity changes. I mean

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Speaker 3: back into twenty twenty, they were in sort of the

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Speaker 3: low billions, and she wouldn't give us the exact number

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Speaker 3: now because there was still a number of them that

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Speaker 3: are still being worked out and there's some commercial sensitivity there.

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Speaker 3: But the fact that they were able to essentially cut

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Speaker 3: thirteen billion dollars over four years shows how big this

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Speaker 3: thing had actually got.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Massive. I had no idea how big that was. Moving

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Speaker 5: on to health is some news around prescriptions.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, the Record Investment in Health Delivery is the title

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Speaker 3: of the press release, which I always have to laugh

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Speaker 3: at because every single government since government started, always talk

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Speaker 3: about how they've committed record amounts of money and health,

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Speaker 3: and technically every single time it's true because you've got

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Speaker 3: to account for inflation, you've got to account for population growth,

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Speaker 3: and if you weren't doing it, you'd be going backwards.

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Speaker 3: And you don't want to be the government that can't

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Speaker 3: say record investment and in health. But essentially what we've

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Speaker 3: got here is we've got Budget twenty twenty five providing

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Speaker 3: seven billion dollar vote increase to vote health, so that

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Speaker 3: is the health service in general, and that's over the

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Speaker 3: forecast period again four years includes one hundred one point

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Speaker 3: thirty seven billion per year to Health New Zealand's baseline,

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Speaker 3: so just to help with the normal running the day

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Speaker 3: to day cost of hospitals and whatnot. But there's a

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Speaker 3: new initiative that I thought find quite interesting that is

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Speaker 3: to include ninety one million dollars to increase prescription lengths

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Speaker 3: and four hundred and forty seven million dollars to support

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Speaker 3: increased access to primary care. So there's actually quite a

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Speaker 3: few new little initiatives going on as well as this

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Speaker 3: record investment. There's the little bits of funding along the way, and.

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Speaker 2: I note also there's some big investments to allow a

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Speaker 2: new emergency department in Wellington and a one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty eight bed building in Nelson so good for those

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Speaker 2: cities and communities.

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Speaker 6: Nothing in there for Dunedin.

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Speaker 4: Nothing additional, I think probably importantly, and this was actually

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Speaker 4: a question that we did get into a little bit

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Speaker 4: as we're going through the budget. Of course, there's a

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Speaker 4: lot of other announcements that have already been made. They're

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Speaker 4: not part of Budget twenty twenty five, but they remain around,

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Speaker 4: so the likes of the huge amount of funding that

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Speaker 4: is still going towards Dunedin, some of the investments that

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Speaker 4: are still going into the likes of funged A hospital

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Speaker 4: up north. But there were sort of further and more

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Speaker 4: specific announcements this time around the likes of Nelson around Wellington,

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Speaker 4: but also coming through for the likes of Palmerston North

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Speaker 4: and parts of Auckland as well. So people should be

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Speaker 4: feeling that there is more money. More importantly, especially for Nelson,

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Speaker 4: that that build is now expected to i think be

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Speaker 4: two years further ahead of schedule. That's good because normally

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Speaker 4: infrastructure pressures means that stuff move out and blow out

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Speaker 4: and push out. These ones are actually being brought forward,

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Speaker 4: so important toe that level of investment. Let's be clear

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Speaker 4: that stuff is vitally needed across the country.

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Speaker 3: And just back on what I was saying about prescriptions

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Speaker 3: very quickly, so a little bit more detail on that. Currently,

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Speaker 3: doctors and others and other prescribers can only prescribe most

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Speaker 3: medicines from maximum of three months at a time. Patients

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Speaker 3: must then pay their GP for follow up appointments. Now

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Speaker 3: that's been we've done to twelve months, So that's something

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Speaker 3: if you're getting prescriptions often, it's going to be quite

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Speaker 3: helpful for you.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that seems sensible to me absolutely.

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Speaker 2: I mean there's been a lot of talk about our

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Speaker 2: health system being in critical condition over the past couple

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Speaker 2: of years. How do you think staff members the unions

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Speaker 2: will respond to the investment and how fellas?

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Speaker 3: Oh, you know what, I think the unions are going

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Speaker 3: to look at this budget and say, you know what,

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Speaker 3: it's great, I love it, I love everything.

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Speaker 6: This government's line out the window.

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Speaker 3: In fact, as we speak there about as I was

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Speaker 3: walking path, about a couple thousand people outside from unions

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Speaker 3: protesting the budget already. I mean, then we've made ready

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Speaker 3: or well maybe they saw an advanced copy that I

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Speaker 3: hadn't seen, but they're not happy yet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fellers, stick around because we're going to have a

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Speaker 2: chat about education next and the overall state of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Plenty to chat about there. We're joined by Jason Wolves,

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Speaker 2: our political editor and CEO of Infometrics, Brad Olsen. It

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Speaker 2: is twenty eight past two.

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Speaker 1: You talk say headlines with.

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Speaker 7: Blue bubble taxis It's no trouble with a blue bubble.

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Speaker 7: The Finance Minister has released Budget twenty twenty five. It

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Speaker 7: includes key we savior changes, the government harving it's yearly

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Speaker 7: contribution amount and introducing an income cap, seven billions going

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Speaker 7: into health and two point five billion into education over

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Speaker 7: four years. A business tax incentive will let twenty percent

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Speaker 7: of a new assets value be deducted from annual taxable

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Speaker 7: income if out five billion dollars has been found through

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Speaker 7: rep prioritizations. The recent changes to the pay equity regime

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Speaker 7: have saved the government nearly thirteen billion over four years.

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Speaker 7: Unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds won't be eligible for

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Speaker 7: job Seeker leaving parents to fund them, except some without

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Speaker 7: family support, and the Best Start tax credit will be

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Speaker 7: means tested from April twenty twenty six. The government oh's

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Speaker 7: one hundred and eighty five billion dollars expected to near

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Speaker 7: two hundred and forty billion in the next four years,

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Speaker 7: really disappointing. The one thing that scares Rugby star Hoya Miller.

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Speaker 7: You can find out more at NZID Herald Premium. Back

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Speaker 7: to matt Ethan Tyler Adams.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Raylan, and we are breaking down

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Speaker 2: the NOBS budget Budget twenty twenty five with our political

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Speaker 2: editor Jason Walls and Infometric CEO brad Olsen fell As.

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Speaker 2: Lets have a chat about education.

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Speaker 3: Yes, education, I mean, honestly, there's always lots of money

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Speaker 3: in education as well, but this didn't really take a

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Speaker 3: sort of a precedent that it didn't take a higher

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Speaker 3: standing than other places in the budget. I mean, there's

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Speaker 3: always lots of money for education every time around. In fact,

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Speaker 3: there was three hundred and eighty one million dollars in

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Speaker 3: new spending on initi education this year. We got the

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Speaker 3: largest boost, according to Erica Stanford, the largest boost to

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Speaker 3: learning support in a generation. They're good at writing the

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Speaker 3: press releases, aren't they. Erica says the government has been

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Speaker 3: delivering the most significant investments in learning support in a

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Speaker 3: generation to better support Kiwi kids. And then she goes

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Speaker 3: on to talk about budget twenty twenty five investing two

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Speaker 3: point five billion dollars over four years in education with

438
00:19:49,453 --> 00:19:54,053
Speaker 3: a focus on delivering transformational boosts to learning support funding.

439
00:19:54,293 --> 00:19:56,413
Speaker 3: And we do know that there is money in there

440
00:19:56,453 --> 00:19:59,013
Speaker 3: for other likes of teacher aides and other things like that.

441
00:19:59,773 --> 00:20:02,253
Speaker 4: All right, I think as well with that learning support,

442
00:20:02,293 --> 00:20:04,213
Speaker 4: I mean, the reason that's so important this is a

443
00:20:04,253 --> 00:20:07,373
Speaker 4: part of the government's focus on social investment. They've identified

444
00:20:07,373 --> 00:20:09,133
Speaker 4: that these are some of the learners that if you

445
00:20:09,213 --> 00:20:11,253
Speaker 4: don't help them, you don't support them well at school,

446
00:20:11,333 --> 00:20:13,133
Speaker 4: they're not going to be able to reach their full potential.

447
00:20:13,173 --> 00:20:14,893
Speaker 4: So I do think in terms of yes, there's some

448
00:20:14,893 --> 00:20:17,133
Speaker 4: more money going into it, but the potential for change

449
00:20:17,293 --> 00:20:19,653
Speaker 4: is quite important. Shows as well that government is wanting

450
00:20:19,693 --> 00:20:21,973
Speaker 4: to target this spending a lot more. They've done the

451
00:20:22,013 --> 00:20:24,933
Speaker 4: same thing in tertiary education, where they're putting some additional

452
00:20:24,933 --> 00:20:29,213
Speaker 4: money into support not every university course, but very specifically

453
00:20:29,253 --> 00:20:32,893
Speaker 4: the STEM subject science, Technology, Engineering and maths so that

454
00:20:32,893 --> 00:20:35,253
Speaker 4: we can get some of that smarter, more productive people

455
00:20:35,293 --> 00:20:36,373
Speaker 4: out there on the tools.

456
00:20:36,893 --> 00:20:41,133
Speaker 5: So nothing for my degree in philosophy, corrections and police.

457
00:20:41,173 --> 00:20:42,333
Speaker 5: There's been a bit of movement there.

458
00:20:43,253 --> 00:20:45,573
Speaker 4: Indeed, we've seen a fair bit of funding that's come

459
00:20:45,693 --> 00:20:48,653
Speaker 4: through there from the government, more money going into the

460
00:20:48,693 --> 00:20:51,453
Speaker 4: likes of the court systems to ensure that there's better

461
00:20:51,573 --> 00:20:54,733
Speaker 4: legal aid and probably in a sense looking likely to

462
00:20:54,773 --> 00:20:57,293
Speaker 4: be more judges and similar coming through two hundred and

463
00:20:57,333 --> 00:21:00,133
Speaker 4: forty six million dollars more into the court system there

464
00:21:00,293 --> 00:21:03,812
Speaker 4: four hundred and eighty directly into police. That helps some

465
00:21:03,893 --> 00:21:07,213
Speaker 4: of the frontline salaries from the extra police that they're

466
00:21:07,253 --> 00:21:10,013
Speaker 4: trying to bring fullard and some other changes because at

467
00:21:10,013 --> 00:21:12,292
Speaker 4: the moment the police are sometimes operating with some rubbish

468
00:21:12,373 --> 00:21:15,453
Speaker 4: backroom systems and if we can spend more time having

469
00:21:15,493 --> 00:21:17,493
Speaker 4: them out on the beat and less time doing paperwork,

470
00:21:17,533 --> 00:21:18,413
Speaker 4: that seems to be.

471
00:21:18,693 --> 00:21:19,373
Speaker 3: A good one.

472
00:21:19,453 --> 00:21:22,493
Speaker 4: Probably the biggest change though, coming in the correction space.

473
00:21:22,933 --> 00:21:26,013
Speaker 4: Government adding an extra three hundred and sixty eight new

474
00:21:26,093 --> 00:21:30,413
Speaker 4: corrections offices coming through that's worth four hundred and seventy

475
00:21:30,413 --> 00:21:32,813
Speaker 4: two million dollars over the four years, and a two

476
00:21:32,933 --> 00:21:36,733
Speaker 4: hundred and forty bed extension for new high security bids

477
00:21:36,773 --> 00:21:39,493
Speaker 4: at christ Church Men's Prison, clearly showing that the government

478
00:21:39,533 --> 00:21:42,333
Speaker 4: is expecting to have more high security offenders to lock up.

479
00:21:42,373 --> 00:21:44,013
Speaker 3: And I'll tell you what, boys, this isn't the first

480
00:21:44,053 --> 00:21:46,413
Speaker 3: time the government has had to pour more money into

481
00:21:46,493 --> 00:21:49,173
Speaker 3: the correction's budget. You'll remember that was one of the

482
00:21:49,253 --> 00:21:52,653
Speaker 3: key areas of the budget last year and interestingly herald

483
00:21:52,733 --> 00:21:55,253
Speaker 3: political edit to Thomas Coglan asked the Prime Minister this

484
00:21:55,373 --> 00:21:59,093
Speaker 3: very question, Finance Minister, this very question. Essentially, are you

485
00:21:59,173 --> 00:22:02,013
Speaker 3: comfortable with the fact that you continue having to pour

486
00:22:02,093 --> 00:22:04,613
Speaker 3: money into corrections? And Nikola Willis, I don't know about

487
00:22:04,653 --> 00:22:06,413
Speaker 3: what you thought, Brad, but I thought her answer was.

488
00:22:06,533 --> 00:22:08,813
Speaker 3: I mean, it was very National Party ask not saying

489
00:22:08,973 --> 00:22:11,013
Speaker 3: there's anything wrong with that, but it was essentially, if

490
00:22:11,053 --> 00:22:13,253
Speaker 3: people keep committing crimes, we're going to keep locking them up.

491
00:22:13,373 --> 00:22:15,213
Speaker 3: That's just the way that it is. Keeping key we

492
00:22:15,373 --> 00:22:18,093
Speaker 3: safe is more important than saving a few pennies when

493
00:22:18,133 --> 00:22:18,893
Speaker 3: it comes to prisons.

494
00:22:19,253 --> 00:22:20,653
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I think as well.

495
00:22:20,653 --> 00:22:23,053
Speaker 4: I mean, Matt, that's the sentiment you get from people

496
00:22:23,053 --> 00:22:25,292
Speaker 4: though writers that they are really focused on law and order.

497
00:22:25,373 --> 00:22:27,813
Speaker 4: They are expecting that, you know, when they go out,

498
00:22:27,853 --> 00:22:30,613
Speaker 4: that they are able to remain safe, that their businesses

499
00:22:30,773 --> 00:22:32,493
Speaker 4: aren't going to get robbed and some of all the time.

500
00:22:32,573 --> 00:22:33,973
Speaker 4: So there does seem to be a real level of

501
00:22:33,973 --> 00:22:36,733
Speaker 4: focus from the public overwhanting this law and order play

502
00:22:36,893 --> 00:22:39,013
Speaker 4: area of government to be funded a lot higher.

503
00:22:39,293 --> 00:22:41,413
Speaker 6: Yeah, so that's funding for the police.

504
00:22:41,853 --> 00:22:44,253
Speaker 2: That almost half a billion over four years to maintain

505
00:22:44,293 --> 00:22:46,613
Speaker 2: the frontline services. Is that going to help Mark Mitchell

506
00:22:46,973 --> 00:22:50,333
Speaker 2: reach his numbers that were promised before the election? He

507
00:22:50,373 --> 00:22:52,493
Speaker 2: said to answer a few questions on that. Will this

508
00:22:52,533 --> 00:22:54,893
Speaker 2: help him get a bit closer to that?

509
00:22:54,413 --> 00:22:56,813
Speaker 4: That does seem to be the sort of focus coming

510
00:22:56,893 --> 00:23:01,813
Speaker 4: through the from Minister Mitchell. He's highlighted that this additional

511
00:23:01,853 --> 00:23:06,013
Speaker 4: funding quote remedies an underfunding increase to police numbers inherited

512
00:23:06,013 --> 00:23:09,293
Speaker 4: from the previous government. So there is money that's coming through.

513
00:23:09,333 --> 00:23:11,893
Speaker 4: What's also clear though, is that even when you start

514
00:23:11,933 --> 00:23:14,053
Speaker 4: to pour in more money for the people, you need

515
00:23:14,093 --> 00:23:16,493
Speaker 4: the associated kit, you need the police cars and everything

516
00:23:16,533 --> 00:23:18,573
Speaker 4: else that comes through. So government is trying to do

517
00:23:19,133 --> 00:23:21,693
Speaker 4: a bit more of that over time. Look, I think

518
00:23:21,733 --> 00:23:23,693
Speaker 4: they're probably up against it in terms of being able

519
00:23:23,733 --> 00:23:26,173
Speaker 4: to deliver all of those police quite as quickly, but

520
00:23:26,333 --> 00:23:28,653
Speaker 4: there is certainly money in the budget to provide it.

521
00:23:28,693 --> 00:23:30,693
Speaker 4: So when they're able to recruit, they should be able

522
00:23:30,733 --> 00:23:32,693
Speaker 4: to bring them through to the beak sooner rather than later.

523
00:23:32,853 --> 00:23:35,493
Speaker 5: Yeah, all right, let's move on to the big one.

524
00:23:35,933 --> 00:23:39,133
Speaker 5: What is the state of our economy according to this budget.

525
00:23:39,773 --> 00:23:42,653
Speaker 3: Well, you'll be less than sorry to jump in before

526
00:23:42,893 --> 00:23:45,093
Speaker 3: you on this one. Brad. You are the economic expert.

527
00:23:45,093 --> 00:23:47,853
Speaker 3: I'm just a political talking head. But what we can

528
00:23:47,933 --> 00:23:50,253
Speaker 3: see is that you know it's This was probably the

529
00:23:50,333 --> 00:23:52,693
Speaker 3: least surprising part of the budget for me. You may

530
00:23:53,293 --> 00:23:55,693
Speaker 3: every budget I do the same thing. Our good friend

531
00:23:55,693 --> 00:23:58,893
Speaker 3: Craig Rennie, who works at the CTU now as their economists,

532
00:23:58,893 --> 00:24:00,532
Speaker 3: you would always tell me the same thing, that you

533
00:24:00,613 --> 00:24:02,733
Speaker 3: have to start the budget by turning to the back

534
00:24:02,773 --> 00:24:05,013
Speaker 3: of the budget and looking ahead as to what the

535
00:24:05,013 --> 00:24:07,413
Speaker 3: predictions were. And we're looking at it right now and

536
00:24:07,453 --> 00:24:10,213
Speaker 3: it's about as as we expected it to be, right Brad,

537
00:24:10,253 --> 00:24:12,453
Speaker 3: I mean I wasn't particularly surprised by the fact that

538
00:24:12,613 --> 00:24:15,773
Speaker 3: the surplus is twenty twenty nine it's wait then, at

539
00:24:15,773 --> 00:24:18,853
Speaker 3: two hundred and fourteen million dollars anything catch you on

540
00:24:18,893 --> 00:24:19,213
Speaker 3: the hoof?

541
00:24:19,333 --> 00:24:22,413
Speaker 4: No, I mean very much on the economic side as expected.

542
00:24:22,453 --> 00:24:26,773
Speaker 4: Of course, the government's advisors Treasury have highlighted that things

543
00:24:26,813 --> 00:24:29,453
Speaker 4: are going to be tougher, the global economic environment is

544
00:24:29,493 --> 00:24:31,893
Speaker 4: not quite as good, trading partner growth is going to

545
00:24:31,893 --> 00:24:34,133
Speaker 4: be lower than before. All of that means that there's

546
00:24:34,173 --> 00:24:36,293
Speaker 4: just not going to be quite as much economic momentum

547
00:24:36,293 --> 00:24:39,693
Speaker 4: in the system. So very much, I think as expected,

548
00:24:39,853 --> 00:24:41,773
Speaker 4: although the challenge a little bit is that you've got

549
00:24:41,813 --> 00:24:44,733
Speaker 4: so many moving parts. You've got the changes in the

550
00:24:44,733 --> 00:24:46,813
Speaker 4: global settings that are coming through. You've got a number

551
00:24:46,853 --> 00:24:49,453
Speaker 4: of these budget proposals which should be trying to stimulate

552
00:24:49,493 --> 00:24:51,733
Speaker 4: a bit of growth. But I think for the government,

553
00:24:51,773 --> 00:24:54,573
Speaker 4: they'll be looking that for over time better of visions.

554
00:24:54,573 --> 00:24:56,693
Speaker 4: If they can start to get some better economic numbers

555
00:24:56,773 --> 00:24:59,133
Speaker 4: coming through, the treasury can book those, they can expect

556
00:24:59,173 --> 00:25:01,533
Speaker 4: some high taxs coming through. But for the moment, things

557
00:25:01,533 --> 00:25:05,413
Speaker 4: still remaining fairly grim. There is a recovery underway, but

558
00:25:05,533 --> 00:25:07,853
Speaker 4: it is going to be a slower slog.

559
00:25:07,653 --> 00:25:10,053
Speaker 3: And I was actually, I mean, I guess I'm not

560
00:25:10,133 --> 00:25:13,173
Speaker 3: that surprised, but the debt numbers are still looking pretty grim.

561
00:25:13,213 --> 00:25:15,133
Speaker 3: I mean, we're at about one hundred and eighty five

562
00:25:15,133 --> 00:25:17,013
Speaker 3: billion dollars in terms of the debt level of the

563
00:25:17,013 --> 00:25:19,933
Speaker 3: government has now that balloons up to two hundred and

564
00:25:19,933 --> 00:25:23,133
Speaker 3: thirty eight billion dollars by twenty twenty nine. Now, the

565
00:25:23,133 --> 00:25:26,573
Speaker 3: government does measure its debt as a proportion of GDP,

566
00:25:26,733 --> 00:25:29,453
Speaker 3: and their argument is essentially as the economy grows, that

567
00:25:29,573 --> 00:25:33,013
Speaker 3: level of that proportionality actually either remains the same or

568
00:25:33,093 --> 00:25:36,213
Speaker 3: goes down, but it's staying pretty stagnant. And Nikola Willis

569
00:25:36,453 --> 00:25:39,653
Speaker 3: was really waxing lyrical about what the Treasury advice to

570
00:25:39,693 --> 00:25:43,013
Speaker 3: her has been, and she accepted it that that she

571
00:25:43,613 --> 00:25:46,773
Speaker 3: thought that we shouldn't go over fifty percent of debt

572
00:25:46,853 --> 00:25:49,613
Speaker 3: to GDP, And it just doesn't seem like there's any

573
00:25:49,613 --> 00:25:52,893
Speaker 3: impetus to get that debt down to a more manageable level.

574
00:25:52,933 --> 00:25:54,773
Speaker 4: What do you think, rad I mean, look, the government

575
00:25:54,773 --> 00:25:57,333
Speaker 4: would have to just slash so much more spending, even

576
00:25:57,413 --> 00:25:59,453
Speaker 4: out at the end of the forecast period. We're talking

577
00:25:59,533 --> 00:26:02,973
Speaker 4: twenty twenty nine. At this point, government expenses as proportion

578
00:26:03,053 --> 00:26:05,733
Speaker 4: of GDP only just slipped below thirty one percent. They

579
00:26:05,733 --> 00:26:08,093
Speaker 4: weren't even at thirty before the pandemic. So it's going

580
00:26:08,133 --> 00:26:10,013
Speaker 4: to take make a long time to unwind this. But

581
00:26:10,373 --> 00:26:12,653
Speaker 4: I think below the surface, what was different for me

582
00:26:12,733 --> 00:26:15,333
Speaker 4: is that normally when we go into these economic updates

583
00:26:15,373 --> 00:26:17,733
Speaker 4: they come through every six months or so, we always

584
00:26:17,773 --> 00:26:19,253
Speaker 4: see that the government is going to bring in a

585
00:26:19,293 --> 00:26:21,053
Speaker 4: whole bunch less revenue, but they're going to spend a

586
00:26:21,053 --> 00:26:22,853
Speaker 4: whole bunch more That is what we've seen like the.

587
00:26:22,813 --> 00:26:23,853
Speaker 3: Last three four years.

588
00:26:24,173 --> 00:26:26,693
Speaker 4: This time for the first time we've seen that. Yep, again,

589
00:26:26,773 --> 00:26:28,693
Speaker 4: revenue is going to be lower. The economy sucks a

590
00:26:28,733 --> 00:26:31,893
Speaker 4: bit more, but there was also lower spending that the

591
00:26:31,933 --> 00:26:34,373
Speaker 4: government is going to make under budget twenty twenty five

592
00:26:34,453 --> 00:26:37,613
Speaker 4: compared to the half year. It shows that slowly, but surely,

593
00:26:37,893 --> 00:26:40,613
Speaker 4: very slowly, they are trying to get those fiscal settings

594
00:26:40,693 --> 00:26:41,213
Speaker 4: under control.

595
00:26:41,333 --> 00:26:43,133
Speaker 5: You've got to say, two hundred and forty billion is

596
00:26:43,133 --> 00:26:46,213
Speaker 5: a terrifying number, as it certainly is. A lot of

597
00:26:46,213 --> 00:26:47,933
Speaker 5: people are texting this through, and I know this is

598
00:26:48,133 --> 00:26:50,533
Speaker 5: a long question, but so many people text it through

599
00:26:51,173 --> 00:26:54,213
Speaker 5: that I have to ask of you guys, of you, Brad,

600
00:26:54,493 --> 00:26:56,093
Speaker 5: who do we owe the money to? Who do we

601
00:26:56,133 --> 00:26:58,213
Speaker 5: owe that one hundred and eighty five billion dollars to?

602
00:26:58,973 --> 00:27:00,573
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a great question. We owe it to a

603
00:27:00,613 --> 00:27:02,933
Speaker 4: whole bunch of people. Sometimes we effectively owe it to

604
00:27:02,973 --> 00:27:05,373
Speaker 4: ourselves and the likes of New Zealand retail banks will

605
00:27:05,373 --> 00:27:09,053
Speaker 4: own some of those IOUs with the government where you

606
00:27:09,053 --> 00:27:11,893
Speaker 4: know they've exchanged cash for an expectation that government will

607
00:27:11,893 --> 00:27:13,413
Speaker 4: pay them back in the future.

608
00:27:13,493 --> 00:27:14,573
Speaker 3: Some of it's overseas.

609
00:27:14,693 --> 00:27:16,893
Speaker 4: Everyone likes to hold some government bonds. They think that

610
00:27:16,973 --> 00:27:19,773
Speaker 4: New Zealand's pretty stable. In fact, I think our credit

611
00:27:19,853 --> 00:27:22,533
Speaker 4: rating is now better than the US government, so people

612
00:27:22,573 --> 00:27:24,213
Speaker 4: trust us a bit more to part back.

613
00:27:25,213 --> 00:27:28,693
Speaker 2: Very interesting right stick around after we play some messages.

614
00:27:28,773 --> 00:27:32,173
Speaker 2: There's some major changes around benefits, so we'll get into that.

615
00:27:32,453 --> 00:27:34,653
Speaker 2: Then we're going to get a rating from you fellows

616
00:27:34,693 --> 00:27:36,853
Speaker 2: about the NOBS budget, maybe.

617
00:27:36,693 --> 00:27:40,613
Speaker 6: A bit rating rating, so look forward to that.

618
00:27:40,653 --> 00:27:43,533
Speaker 2: We are joined, of course by our political editor Jason Willson,

619
00:27:43,613 --> 00:27:45,453
Speaker 2: Infometric CEO Brad Olsen.

620
00:27:45,533 --> 00:27:49,013
Speaker 6: It is nineteen to three going.

621
00:27:48,813 --> 00:27:52,093
Speaker 1: Through the budget with a fine tooth code. It's Budget

622
00:27:52,133 --> 00:27:55,253
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five with Matt Heath and Tyler Adams news talks.

623
00:27:55,293 --> 00:27:57,613
Speaker 2: That'd be It certainly is, and we're joined by our

624
00:27:57,653 --> 00:28:01,373
Speaker 2: political editor Jason Willson, Infometrics CEO Brad Olson.

625
00:28:01,573 --> 00:28:04,733
Speaker 5: Before we get to benefit changees, it was being bandied

626
00:28:04,773 --> 00:28:07,093
Speaker 5: around as the growth budget. What do we have in

627
00:28:07,173 --> 00:28:09,213
Speaker 5: there that supports growth in the country.

628
00:28:09,933 --> 00:28:10,133
Speaker 7: Yeah.

629
00:28:10,133 --> 00:28:13,013
Speaker 4: The biggest one coming through from the government was their

630
00:28:13,053 --> 00:28:16,373
Speaker 4: new policy, the Investment Boost Scheme. That's where it's a

631
00:28:16,373 --> 00:28:20,053
Speaker 4: big new tax incentive for businesses where effectively you buy

632
00:28:20,093 --> 00:28:23,253
Speaker 4: some new kit you can immediately deduct twenty percent of

633
00:28:23,293 --> 00:28:26,373
Speaker 4: the cost of that new asset on top of normal depreciation,

634
00:28:26,693 --> 00:28:29,173
Speaker 4: meaning that you've got a lower tax bill after at

635
00:28:29,373 --> 00:28:31,293
Speaker 4: the same year that you buy that new purchase. So

636
00:28:31,413 --> 00:28:33,253
Speaker 4: long story short, you're going to see a whole bunch

637
00:28:33,293 --> 00:28:35,213
Speaker 4: of businesses that are quite keen to go and invest

638
00:28:35,213 --> 00:28:37,253
Speaker 4: in some new kit. That should means that they make

639
00:28:37,373 --> 00:28:40,333
Speaker 4: not only higher profits over time, but they'll be more productive.

640
00:28:40,853 --> 00:28:43,573
Speaker 4: A few other specifics here and there. Probably the most

641
00:28:43,653 --> 00:28:45,693
Speaker 4: interesting one was that the government has set aside two

642
00:28:45,733 --> 00:28:48,253
Speaker 4: hundred million dollars for a crown stake in a new

643
00:28:48,293 --> 00:28:51,013
Speaker 4: gas field if they can find it, so Shane Jones

644
00:28:51,213 --> 00:28:53,813
Speaker 4: as Resource Minister looking to do a bit more gas activity.

645
00:28:53,973 --> 00:28:56,893
Speaker 4: Probably the most interesting that businesses might not like, but

646
00:28:56,933 --> 00:29:00,213
Speaker 4: it's probably still pretty important, is that IRD gets an

647
00:29:00,253 --> 00:29:02,573
Speaker 4: additional thirty five million dollars a year to go and

648
00:29:02,613 --> 00:29:04,973
Speaker 4: claw back some of the tax debt that people haven't paid.

649
00:29:05,213 --> 00:29:07,853
Speaker 4: And given that they've found something like three billion dollars already,

650
00:29:08,013 --> 00:29:09,333
Speaker 4: it's not a bad investment.

651
00:29:09,613 --> 00:29:11,013
Speaker 6: Yeah, that will make a few people nervous.

652
00:29:11,053 --> 00:29:12,733
Speaker 5: Get your books done people, exactly.

653
00:29:12,893 --> 00:29:14,453
Speaker 2: Hey, just going back to the tax break, So the

654
00:29:14,453 --> 00:29:18,053
Speaker 2: government forecast that could boost GDP by one percent and

655
00:29:18,093 --> 00:29:21,293
Speaker 2: wages by one point five percent over the next two decades.

656
00:29:21,413 --> 00:29:24,173
Speaker 2: Does that sound optimistic or about rite?

657
00:29:24,613 --> 00:29:25,493
Speaker 3: It's probably about right.

658
00:29:25,533 --> 00:29:26,973
Speaker 4: I mean I think a lot of people listening will

659
00:29:26,973 --> 00:29:28,773
Speaker 4: be going, hold on, I only get one percent over

660
00:29:28,813 --> 00:29:31,373
Speaker 4: the next like ten twenty years, is that really worth it?

661
00:29:31,653 --> 00:29:33,813
Speaker 4: Which is understandable. I mean, it's sort of hard for

662
00:29:33,853 --> 00:29:38,813
Speaker 4: government to massively massively increase GDP growth without like fundamentally

663
00:29:38,853 --> 00:29:40,653
Speaker 4: finding a whole new pot of gold that we never

664
00:29:40,693 --> 00:29:44,013
Speaker 4: thought about before. So these aren't too bad, especially because yep,

665
00:29:44,053 --> 00:29:46,573
Speaker 4: it takes you know, twenty years to get that one

666
00:29:46,613 --> 00:29:50,173
Speaker 4: percent increase, but about half of that GDP increase coming

667
00:29:50,253 --> 00:29:52,853
Speaker 4: just in the next five years, so it's not massive massive,

668
00:29:52,853 --> 00:29:54,413
Speaker 4: But I do think it just shifts the dial a

669
00:29:54,413 --> 00:29:56,573
Speaker 4: little bit so that businesses are able to invest a

670
00:29:56,573 --> 00:29:58,293
Speaker 4: bit more. And I think that geez, you think of

671
00:29:58,373 --> 00:30:00,653
Speaker 4: some of the old kits that New Zealand businesses seem

672
00:30:00,693 --> 00:30:02,893
Speaker 4: to have across the country. I think this will convince

673
00:30:02,933 --> 00:30:04,813
Speaker 4: a few more people to dip into their back pockets

674
00:30:04,893 --> 00:30:07,213
Speaker 4: make that big investment up because they can actually claim

675
00:30:07,253 --> 00:30:07,973
Speaker 4: it back on the tax.

676
00:30:08,453 --> 00:30:08,533
Speaker 7: Uh.

677
00:30:08,653 --> 00:30:09,053
Speaker 6: Very good.

678
00:30:09,413 --> 00:30:13,813
Speaker 5: Speaking of big investments, what's the benefit changes that we've

679
00:30:13,853 --> 00:30:14,653
Speaker 5: seen in the budget.

680
00:30:15,013 --> 00:30:17,453
Speaker 3: This is quite a fascinating one, and I say fascinating

681
00:30:17,613 --> 00:30:19,573
Speaker 3: for you guys, because this is going to make some

682
00:30:19,693 --> 00:30:23,173
Speaker 3: great talk back. Parents rather than the STAG will be

683
00:30:23,213 --> 00:30:26,653
Speaker 3: responsible for unemployed eighteen and nineteen year olds who cannot

684
00:30:26,653 --> 00:30:30,293
Speaker 3: support themselves under planned benefit changes, and that's been announced

685
00:30:30,333 --> 00:30:33,453
Speaker 3: in the budget today. Employment Minister Louise Upstin says the

686
00:30:33,453 --> 00:30:36,493
Speaker 3: purpose of the welfare system is to support those who

687
00:30:36,533 --> 00:30:39,213
Speaker 3: need it the most. Our government is taking steps to

688
00:30:39,253 --> 00:30:41,973
Speaker 3: make sure work or study is the focus for young

689
00:30:41,973 --> 00:30:45,093
Speaker 3: people rather than being on welfare and where it says

690
00:30:45,133 --> 00:30:47,613
Speaker 3: that they're clearly signaling that if you're eighteen and nineteen

691
00:30:47,773 --> 00:30:49,973
Speaker 3: and you don't study or you're not in work, and

692
00:30:50,053 --> 00:30:53,013
Speaker 3: you're and you can't support yourself financially, you should be

693
00:30:53,013 --> 00:30:55,093
Speaker 3: looking for a job and you shouldn't be, as Nicola

694
00:30:55,133 --> 00:30:57,973
Speaker 3: Willis said, sitting at home playing PlayStation and this should

695
00:30:57,973 --> 00:31:00,013
Speaker 3: be giving you some incentive to get out there and

696
00:31:00,053 --> 00:31:01,253
Speaker 3: actually try and find a job.

697
00:31:02,533 --> 00:31:04,893
Speaker 2: Just on the I mean, it is a surprising announcement

698
00:31:05,013 --> 00:31:07,213
Speaker 2: that the eighteen and nineteen year olds will have the

699
00:31:07,333 --> 00:31:10,493
Speaker 2: job secret images benefits tested against the ap parents' income.

700
00:31:10,533 --> 00:31:13,453
Speaker 2: What is that income set at do we know.

701
00:31:14,013 --> 00:31:17,133
Speaker 4: There's no announcements yet. Cabinet hasn't made those decisions. By

702
00:31:17,173 --> 00:31:18,773
Speaker 4: sounds of it, they'll be making those over the next

703
00:31:18,813 --> 00:31:21,453
Speaker 4: couple of weeks, but a pretty i think strong intention

704
00:31:21,613 --> 00:31:24,133
Speaker 4: from government that look, in the first case, it should

705
00:31:24,133 --> 00:31:26,533
Speaker 4: be your family that's looking after you, and only after

706
00:31:26,653 --> 00:31:29,053
Speaker 4: that will you sort of see that support from government,

707
00:31:29,293 --> 00:31:31,173
Speaker 4: similar i think in a sense to what you see

708
00:31:31,173 --> 00:31:34,173
Speaker 4: with some of the student loan supports and similar that

709
00:31:34,253 --> 00:31:36,813
Speaker 4: come through. But again this is a sort of wider

710
00:31:36,893 --> 00:31:39,213
Speaker 4: change I think where the government is going. Look, it

711
00:31:39,293 --> 00:31:41,813
Speaker 4: is going to be less money coming from the government,

712
00:31:41,933 --> 00:31:46,493
Speaker 4: more for households, businesses, organizations to sort of do it themselves,

713
00:31:46,573 --> 00:31:48,053
Speaker 4: and you do sort of again see this bit of

714
00:31:48,093 --> 00:31:50,173
Speaker 4: a switch around. It was interesting. One of the other

715
00:31:50,293 --> 00:31:53,013
Speaker 4: changes that the government announced in the sort of benefits

716
00:31:53,013 --> 00:31:55,973
Speaker 4: and social support areas was that they are expanding working

717
00:31:56,013 --> 00:31:59,373
Speaker 4: for families. They're changing their abatement thresholds so that about

718
00:31:59,373 --> 00:32:01,573
Speaker 4: one hundred and forty two thousand families will get an

719
00:32:01,573 --> 00:32:04,413
Speaker 4: extra three hundred and sixty odd dollars a year from

720
00:32:04,453 --> 00:32:07,333
Speaker 4: Working for Families. But at the same time, the best

721
00:32:07,333 --> 00:32:10,013
Speaker 4: start text credit for when you have a new child.

722
00:32:10,573 --> 00:32:13,093
Speaker 4: That's going to be a bita that you're going to

723
00:32:13,133 --> 00:32:15,613
Speaker 4: lose some money straight away if you're on higher income.

724
00:32:15,693 --> 00:32:18,693
Speaker 4: So much greater focus on means testing across the board.

725
00:32:18,773 --> 00:32:19,933
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's for sure.

726
00:32:20,093 --> 00:32:21,653
Speaker 6: Right, let's have a chat about reaction.

727
00:32:22,133 --> 00:32:24,453
Speaker 2: We'll start on the political side, Jason, what has been

728
00:32:24,493 --> 00:32:26,213
Speaker 2: the reaction from the various parties?

729
00:32:26,493 --> 00:32:28,213
Speaker 3: Well, I can tell you right now. Let's cross live

730
00:32:28,253 --> 00:32:30,693
Speaker 3: into the house where Chris Hepkins is giving a speech

731
00:32:30,853 --> 00:32:32,773
Speaker 3: in reply to the budget. Have a listen.

732
00:32:33,053 --> 00:32:35,493
Speaker 8: We ne she was talking about nobs while she was

733
00:32:35,573 --> 00:32:38,733
Speaker 8: being clear as the budget had no bold solutions. The

734
00:32:38,773 --> 00:32:42,413
Speaker 8: budget had no bread and shelter for vulnerable New Zealanders.

735
00:32:43,173 --> 00:32:46,013
Speaker 8: The budget had no back paid settlements for women who

736
00:32:46,013 --> 00:32:49,893
Speaker 8: have been fighting to have fair pay for far too long.

737
00:32:49,973 --> 00:32:52,253
Speaker 3: And that's the sort of reaction you would expect from

738
00:32:52,293 --> 00:32:55,013
Speaker 3: the lakes of Chris Hepkins. We've seen the unions come

739
00:32:55,013 --> 00:32:58,493
Speaker 3: out basically seeing the same thing. The PSA says, the

740
00:32:58,493 --> 00:33:02,133
Speaker 3: budget confirms twelve point six billion dollar theft of wages

741
00:33:02,173 --> 00:33:06,853
Speaker 3: from women, pay equity betrayal. Lead Bear said the headline there.

742
00:33:06,733 --> 00:33:09,173
Speaker 5: Were they where we you know, when we they started

743
00:33:09,213 --> 00:33:11,733
Speaker 5: this process and move things around a bit labor that

744
00:33:11,773 --> 00:33:14,293
Speaker 5: it was going to be twelve point six billion dollars.

745
00:33:14,973 --> 00:33:17,133
Speaker 3: I don't think that they were. I mean, what we're

746
00:33:17,173 --> 00:33:19,973
Speaker 3: hearing from Nikola Willis is that this whole thing blew

747
00:33:20,053 --> 00:33:23,093
Speaker 3: up to a degree that nobody was expecting. I mean,

748
00:33:23,133 --> 00:33:25,813
Speaker 3: Treasury seems to be really caught on the fly on

749
00:33:25,853 --> 00:33:29,253
Speaker 3: this one to see how big this got and labor now,

750
00:33:29,493 --> 00:33:32,133
Speaker 3: I mean there's some serious questions that needs to be

751
00:33:32,173 --> 00:33:35,653
Speaker 3: asked to the likes of Chris Hipkins and to I

752
00:33:35,653 --> 00:33:38,213
Speaker 3: mean Grant Robertson if you would return a call about

753
00:33:38,213 --> 00:33:40,853
Speaker 3: how they saw this getting so big and or did

754
00:33:40,893 --> 00:33:43,213
Speaker 3: they foresee this getting so big? And I'd like to

755
00:33:43,213 --> 00:33:44,933
Speaker 3: see sort of where they thought it was.

756
00:33:45,333 --> 00:33:47,013
Speaker 5: What were they going to cut to come up with

757
00:33:47,013 --> 00:33:48,133
Speaker 5: that twelve point six billion?

758
00:33:48,213 --> 00:33:51,453
Speaker 6: Yeah, great question. And the reaction from the business world.

759
00:33:51,493 --> 00:33:54,093
Speaker 2: Have we got any reaction coming up at this stage

760
00:33:54,093 --> 00:33:56,533
Speaker 2: on some of those text breaks and this growth budget?

761
00:33:56,693 --> 00:33:58,613
Speaker 3: Well, I tell you what my favorite thing about budget

762
00:33:58,653 --> 00:34:00,853
Speaker 3: Day is when I get back and the explosion of

763
00:34:00,853 --> 00:34:03,453
Speaker 3: my inbox of press releases so we can go through

764
00:34:03,453 --> 00:34:04,773
Speaker 3: and find a few. I mean, the first one that

765
00:34:04,813 --> 00:34:07,693
Speaker 3: I've clicked on now is the taxpayers union who were

766
00:34:07,693 --> 00:34:10,373
Speaker 3: also in the lock up. Remember there were them and

767
00:34:10,453 --> 00:34:13,093
Speaker 3: the CTU were going to get barred. But they say

768
00:34:13,133 --> 00:34:16,773
Speaker 3: that essentially National delivers another Labor Party budget and they

769
00:34:16,813 --> 00:34:19,253
Speaker 3: said so much for a growth budget, so they're not

770
00:34:19,293 --> 00:34:21,533
Speaker 3: really happy with the level of spending. I'll tell you

771
00:34:21,573 --> 00:34:23,933
Speaker 3: what though, boys, there was an interesting detail that we

772
00:34:23,973 --> 00:34:25,933
Speaker 3: saw in the lockup, and I'm sure Brad will be

773
00:34:26,173 --> 00:34:28,613
Speaker 3: quite aggrieved about this because it hit him personally. Nikola

774
00:34:28,693 --> 00:34:32,373
Speaker 3: Willis only took questions from the journalist journalists. Usually she

775
00:34:32,893 --> 00:34:35,813
Speaker 3: kind of canvasses the room and takes some from economists,

776
00:34:35,853 --> 00:34:37,692
Speaker 3: saw some analysts, and she didn't do it this time.

777
00:34:37,733 --> 00:34:39,533
Speaker 3: It was us. Did you feel personally attacked? Brad?

778
00:34:39,653 --> 00:34:42,253
Speaker 4: Look, as someone who has this is my tenth budget

779
00:34:42,333 --> 00:34:44,813
Speaker 4: in a row that I've attended lockup for, I've asked

780
00:34:44,813 --> 00:34:47,692
Speaker 4: a question of every finance minister and all of those

781
00:34:47,773 --> 00:34:50,413
Speaker 4: up until today, I don't feel personally aggrieved. I don't

782
00:34:50,413 --> 00:34:52,173
Speaker 4: think it was personal to me. I just think that

783
00:34:52,213 --> 00:34:54,453
Speaker 4: the focus was a lot more on ensuring that people

784
00:34:54,453 --> 00:34:57,213
Speaker 4: could understand it. But it would have been helpful, I

785
00:34:57,253 --> 00:34:59,413
Speaker 4: think for a few questions to come over to the

786
00:34:59,493 --> 00:35:01,693
Speaker 4: endless side we do. I think we try and do

787
00:35:01,733 --> 00:35:03,773
Speaker 4: a good job of helping everyone else understand it. But

788
00:35:04,133 --> 00:35:05,973
Speaker 4: here's the rub. Of course, there are going to be

789
00:35:06,013 --> 00:35:07,973
Speaker 4: some people in the lockup in their endless area that

790
00:35:08,013 --> 00:35:10,133
Speaker 4: are going to ask gotcha questions and similar they're not

791
00:35:10,173 --> 00:35:11,933
Speaker 4: going to try and aid in the understanding. And so

792
00:35:11,973 --> 00:35:14,133
Speaker 4: I can sort of understand why the Finance Minister isn't

793
00:35:14,173 --> 00:35:14,933
Speaker 4: keen to go near it.

794
00:35:15,093 --> 00:35:17,213
Speaker 5: Did you have some gotcha questions in your back pocket

795
00:35:17,213 --> 00:35:18,253
Speaker 5: that you missed out on asking?

796
00:35:18,573 --> 00:35:21,053
Speaker 4: No, I had a very sensible question while I thought

797
00:35:21,053 --> 00:35:22,813
Speaker 4: at least in terms of some of the spending that's

798
00:35:22,893 --> 00:35:25,133
Speaker 4: going on. I mean, this is a very different budget approach.

799
00:35:25,213 --> 00:35:28,693
Speaker 4: Like previously, the government for years has always sort of

800
00:35:28,733 --> 00:35:31,173
Speaker 4: taken last year's budget as a given and added some

801
00:35:31,213 --> 00:35:33,652
Speaker 4: more stuff in. That's what the operating allowance was. This

802
00:35:33,773 --> 00:35:36,172
Speaker 4: time around, you saw six point seven billion dollars of

803
00:35:36,293 --> 00:35:39,853
Speaker 4: new spending five over five billion dollars worth of savings

804
00:35:39,853 --> 00:35:42,373
Speaker 4: come through. So like whatever happened last year, we cannot

805
00:35:42,373 --> 00:35:44,853
Speaker 4: assume it happens into the future. That's not a bad

806
00:35:44,893 --> 00:35:47,453
Speaker 4: place because it says that everything is up on the table.

807
00:35:47,653 --> 00:35:49,652
Speaker 4: But of course I'll have to try and relay that

808
00:35:49,693 --> 00:35:51,773
Speaker 4: to the Finance Minister via the airwaves of newsorts.

809
00:35:51,813 --> 00:35:53,293
Speaker 3: You'd be rather than otherwise.

810
00:35:53,373 --> 00:35:55,133
Speaker 6: Yeah, what we could do. We'll pass it on to Hither.

811
00:35:55,173 --> 00:35:57,692
Speaker 2: Actually, I think she'll have the Finance minister on her

812
00:35:57,733 --> 00:36:00,093
Speaker 2: show after four o'clock, so we will do that for you. Brad,

813
00:36:00,413 --> 00:36:03,093
Speaker 2: stick around after we play some messages. We're going to

814
00:36:03,133 --> 00:36:06,373
Speaker 2: get your guys' ratings for budget twenty twenty five.

815
00:36:06,773 --> 00:36:08,093
Speaker 6: It is eight to three.

816
00:36:09,773 --> 00:36:12,652
Speaker 1: What's your take call eight hundred eighty ten eighty and

817
00:36:12,733 --> 00:36:15,773
Speaker 1: have your stay on Budget twenty twenty five, mad Heathen

818
00:36:15,853 --> 00:36:18,373
Speaker 1: Tyler Adams afternoons on News Talk z B.

819
00:36:20,013 --> 00:36:22,573
Speaker 2: News Talk as z'd be the final few minutes. We're

820
00:36:22,613 --> 00:36:26,133
Speaker 2: joined by political editor Jason Walls and informetrix Brad Olsen.

821
00:36:26,693 --> 00:36:30,172
Speaker 5: I guess the final question is around fiscal impulse. The

822
00:36:30,213 --> 00:36:32,493
Speaker 5: balance is the government doing enough to lower debt without

823
00:36:32,533 --> 00:36:35,613
Speaker 5: stalling the economy stalling growth.

824
00:36:36,333 --> 00:36:39,013
Speaker 4: Look, I think it is closely balanced. The governments still

825
00:36:39,053 --> 00:36:41,212
Speaker 4: running a structural deficit going into the future, so they're

826
00:36:41,213 --> 00:36:44,693
Speaker 4: still spending consistently more than they're able to earn in

827
00:36:44,773 --> 00:36:46,893
Speaker 4: That's still not the greatest position, but the gap is

828
00:36:46,893 --> 00:36:49,573
Speaker 4: closing over time, So I think on balance not the

829
00:36:49,613 --> 00:36:52,333
Speaker 4: worst outcome you could have had. People on one side

830
00:36:52,333 --> 00:36:54,413
Speaker 4: of politics will say it should have gone a lot harder.

831
00:36:54,453 --> 00:36:56,173
Speaker 4: Others will say it should have gone the other direction,

832
00:36:56,253 --> 00:36:58,493
Speaker 4: heaps more spending. I think the government's gone through a

833
00:36:58,573 --> 00:36:59,732
Speaker 4: narrow balancing act here.

834
00:36:59,813 --> 00:37:00,813
Speaker 3: Jeez, I'm glad you got that.

835
00:37:00,813 --> 00:37:04,053
Speaker 2: Question, all right, So both of you, Jason will start

836
00:37:04,093 --> 00:37:06,053
Speaker 2: with you. Out of ten, how would you rate this budget?

837
00:37:07,333 --> 00:37:09,533
Speaker 3: Part of ten, I'm going to get it a. Well,

838
00:37:09,573 --> 00:37:11,013
Speaker 3: what about out of twenty? I'm going to give it

839
00:37:11,133 --> 00:37:14,813
Speaker 3: a thirteen out of twenty because that's thirteen billion that

840
00:37:15,093 --> 00:37:18,213
Speaker 3: the government was able to take through these pay equity changes.

841
00:37:18,293 --> 00:37:21,093
Speaker 3: No matter what you think of the government's moves around these,

842
00:37:21,213 --> 00:37:23,173
Speaker 3: that's a heck of a lot of cheese. You know,

843
00:37:23,293 --> 00:37:26,133
Speaker 3: maybe broke, maybe Seymour was right. Maybe Brooke did save

844
00:37:26,133 --> 00:37:26,933
Speaker 3: the budget.

845
00:37:26,813 --> 00:37:27,773
Speaker 5: Six and a half then.

846
00:37:29,253 --> 00:37:29,853
Speaker 6: And bread.

847
00:37:30,653 --> 00:37:32,292
Speaker 4: Oh look, I feel like you know down the middle

848
00:37:32,293 --> 00:37:34,293
Speaker 4: a little bit that the average seven that you always

849
00:37:34,333 --> 00:37:36,133
Speaker 4: would have given something not too hot, not too cold,

850
00:37:36,173 --> 00:37:38,453
Speaker 4: Because this, in my mind, is the switch at budget.

851
00:37:38,613 --> 00:37:40,293
Speaker 4: You get a bit of something, but you also lose

852
00:37:40,333 --> 00:37:41,973
Speaker 4: a bit of something. And so I think people will

853
00:37:42,013 --> 00:37:45,053
Speaker 4: be both please, displease, and everything else. But we'll probably

854
00:37:45,093 --> 00:37:47,772
Speaker 4: all be talking about something completely different in a week's time.

855
00:37:47,853 --> 00:37:48,733
Speaker 3: God, he's good, isn't he?

856
00:37:48,893 --> 00:37:49,933
Speaker 5: Was there any bsn't it?

857
00:37:51,173 --> 00:37:51,373
Speaker 7: Oh?

858
00:37:51,533 --> 00:37:53,733
Speaker 3: I couldn't possibly comment.

859
00:37:53,973 --> 00:37:55,413
Speaker 4: Put it this way, there's a lot of bs and

860
00:37:55,453 --> 00:37:58,013
Speaker 4: hotty that comes around all the time when it comes

861
00:37:58,093 --> 00:37:59,973
Speaker 4: to budget and reaction. You've heard of some of it

862
00:38:00,013 --> 00:38:02,453
Speaker 4: here from me this afternoon, but I think some other

863
00:38:02,493 --> 00:38:04,453
Speaker 4: good stuff coming out as we continue to unpack.

864
00:38:04,493 --> 00:38:05,533
Speaker 3: The budget was good?

865
00:38:05,773 --> 00:38:07,453
Speaker 6: Yeah, well that I mean a lot of people are

866
00:38:07,493 --> 00:38:09,893
Speaker 6: asking what was the lock up lunch? Like fellas, just

867
00:38:10,013 --> 00:38:10,733
Speaker 6: what work will you do?

868
00:38:10,773 --> 00:38:11,692
Speaker 3: I didn't get any lunch.

869
00:38:11,773 --> 00:38:13,173
Speaker 4: I was busy looking at the budget.

870
00:38:13,213 --> 00:38:15,493
Speaker 3: You clearly just ate an editor. I delegate and eat.

871
00:38:15,573 --> 00:38:16,212
Speaker 3: That's my job.

872
00:38:16,293 --> 00:38:16,413
Speaker 1: Tho.

873
00:38:17,293 --> 00:38:20,333
Speaker 3: There's some wilk sushi. There was some sausage rolls, a

874
00:38:20,333 --> 00:38:20,893
Speaker 3: bit of fruit.

875
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Speaker 6: Yeah, not too bad, very good. Love it. Fellers really

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Speaker 6: enjoyed this hour. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: We'll let you get on because you've got a big

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00:38:27,013 --> 00:38:28,732
Speaker 2: afternoon ahead of you, but.

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Speaker 6: We'll catch you again soon.

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Speaker 3: Thanks guys.

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Speaker 2: That is Jason Wall's, our political editor and CEO of

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Speaker 2: Infometrics Brand Awesome. We're going to open up the phone

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Speaker 2: lines now, keen to get your thoughts about budget twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five and will zero in on some of those highlights.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to Matt and Tyler. Very very good Afternoon

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Speaker 6: June News.

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Speaker 5: Coming up

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Speaker 1: For more from News Talks at b Listen live on

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00:38:51,493 --> 00:38:54,453
Speaker 1: air or online, and keep our shows with you wherever

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