WEBVTT - Quick Bite: US Markets too hot? Staying focused on the long term plan.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to a Sheasise podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the criticisms often leveled at the US markets

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<v Speaker 2>is that they're just they're topping out, They're just keeping

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<v Speaker 2>on going, and all of a sudden there's going to

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<v Speaker 2>be a crash and people are going to burn as

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<v Speaker 2>a result. I mean, what do you sort of say

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<v Speaker 2>to investors in terms of keeping that longer term view,

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<v Speaker 2>knowing that markets, as you said before, go up and

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<v Speaker 2>go down.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's important to just think of that long term

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<v Speaker 1>time horizon. If we look at twenty twenty two, the

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<v Speaker 1>sixty forty portfolio we mentioned earlier had one of its

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<v Speaker 1>worst years and since nineteen thirties because both stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>bonds were down together, which is rare. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that was a clear example of a time where people

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<v Speaker 1>were feeling a little bit of the pain of the

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<v Speaker 1>market and having that drawl down. But those that stayed

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<v Speaker 1>in it, that return we've seen since twenty twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>is almost forty five percent in the S and P

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<v Speaker 1>five hundred and it is sixty to forty portfolio would

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<v Speaker 1>be muted a bit to that, but it's still you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that growth that you've had in that time period by

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<v Speaker 1>just staying the course and staying focused on your long

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<v Speaker 1>term plan and not reacting to short term market events

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<v Speaker 1>even if they aren't. You know, it's not easy to

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<v Speaker 1>see on your portfolio when the number goes down, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's really important, and we've showcased over time this. You

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<v Speaker 1>know what happens when you get out of the market

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<v Speaker 1>when the time is in stress and you miss that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, return to positive returns. What that does with

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<v Speaker 1>the long term investment because of the impact of compounding

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<v Speaker 1>is quite great. So we really try to reinforce to

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<v Speaker 1>tune out the noise that's in the market and really

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<v Speaker 1>just be focused on if your plan is twenty years

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<v Speaker 1>from now, your portfolio doesn't need a lot of change

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<v Speaker 1>right now to be able to achieve the goals that

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<v Speaker 1>you have for your long term investment returns.

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<v Speaker 2>What would you say to New Zealand investors who are

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<v Speaker 2>thinking for the first time to invest in the US

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<v Speaker 2>markets that might have played around a little bit with

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<v Speaker 2>individual stocks, but perhaps now they're thinking exchange traded funds

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<v Speaker 2>is probably an easier, cheaper, maybe safer way to go.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean I think that it's we do, you know, stress,

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<v Speaker 1>the importance of diversification, and that is something that ETF

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<v Speaker 1>gives you. You can trade it like a stock within

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<v Speaker 1>the market, but it still gives you the broad exposure

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<v Speaker 1>of what the underlying portfolio is made up of, and

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<v Speaker 1>in this case, it's the five hundred largest companies in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. So that diversification that you get over choosing

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<v Speaker 1>one single stock really is an important risk mitigation tool.

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<v Speaker 1>When we look at securities over time, the number one

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<v Speaker 1>security and the S and P five hundred at you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and five, in nineteen ninety five and

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighty five, it's different every time you look, because

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<v Speaker 1>you know markets are going to you know, there's just

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<v Speaker 1>different situations for different securities that are going to increase

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<v Speaker 1>their value or decrease. So having that broad exposure instead

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<v Speaker 1>of maybe even looking at you know, everybody looks at

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<v Speaker 1>We just take Nabidia as an example, because of the

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<v Speaker 1>great ride that it's had. Everybody wants to have the

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<v Speaker 1>number one stock in the market, but the video won't

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<v Speaker 1>always be the number one stock in the market. And

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<v Speaker 1>how are you diversified when there is a drawl down

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<v Speaker 1>there if the valuation might get too high. The rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the portfolio helps to kind of pick that up.

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<v Speaker 1>So we really just stress that diversification. We think this

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<v Speaker 1>gives a great opportunity to get that and a wrapper

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<v Speaker 1>that again is really low cost and easy to access.

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<v Speaker 2>Diabet There's a phrase online where people say voo and chill.

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<v Speaker 2>Just wondering what your take on that is.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's it's a funny phrase that you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we are starting to see follow in the lexicon

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more, and it's really to me, it

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<v Speaker 1>resonates a lot of what I just mentioned. It's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to get complicated in the market. You

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<v Speaker 1>don't have to be chasing returns or looking for opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>to maybe find the next hot product. Just buy voo,

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<v Speaker 1>buy vu and and chill. Just you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>sit on that, continue to invest it as you have

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<v Speaker 1>new moneies go into it. And because what we see

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<v Speaker 1>is over the course you know, long dated period, say

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<v Speaker 1>fifty years as the longest, only about two percent of

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<v Speaker 1>active managers can beat the index. So instead of chasing

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<v Speaker 1>some of those returns from that active management or some

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<v Speaker 1>of those strategies, buying the index, that whole index and

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<v Speaker 1>just you know, sitting it out and just waiting for

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<v Speaker 1>the long term or voo and chills, as can be said,

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<v Speaker 1>is really a you know, we think a really great

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<v Speaker 1>strategy to just get those long term investment returns that

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about. Investing involves the risk you might lose

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<v Speaker 1>the money you start with. We recommend talking to a

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<v Speaker 1>licensed financial advisor.

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<v Speaker 2>We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.

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<v Speaker 2>Everything you're about to see and here is current at

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<v Speaker 2>the time of recording.