1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,560
Speaker 1: Now let's go to what is going on with the

2
00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:04,120
Speaker 1: fuel situation. We have just two ships with fuel on

3
00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,680
Speaker 1: board due to arrive in the next fortnight. Our stocks

4
00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:08,840
Speaker 1: are starting to diminish by the looks of things we're about.

5
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:11,039
Speaker 1: We're down about ten percent in the last two weeks.

6
00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,040
Speaker 1: The government's latest update shows that on average we have

7
00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,320
Speaker 1: forty eight point nine let's say, forty nine days worth

8
00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,639
Speaker 1: cover of petrol starboard. Maritime intelligence analyst Mark Douglas has

9
00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:23,119
Speaker 1: a look at what's going on on the water and

10
00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,720
Speaker 1: he's with us. Now, Hi, Mark, Hey, how optimistic are

11
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:27,760
Speaker 1: you about what we've got?

12
00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 2: It appears are more optimistic than the government because we've

13
00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:33,720
Speaker 2: been looking at the numbers of tankers coming to New

14
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,360
Speaker 2: Zealand and I can count eight on the way, so

15
00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,680
Speaker 2: it's more than what the government's counting. Although the difference

16
00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,199
Speaker 2: is probably the government's only county guaranteed cargoes. We're the

17
00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 2: ones that are. The other six are saying that they're

18
00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:47,640
Speaker 2: coming to New Zealand. But with the way the global

19
00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:49,919
Speaker 2: fuel market is, there's a chance that somebody else could

20
00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: snap it up.

21
00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,480
Speaker 1: How do we know which ones are guaranteed in which aren't.

22
00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,279
Speaker 2: So the ones that the government are saying are guaranteed.

23
00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,600
Speaker 2: I am taking it as they are guaranteed the other

24
00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,760
Speaker 2: the other six because that they are sold on the

25
00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:05,559
Speaker 2: water and they can be sold again on the water.

26
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 2: We're looking at them and keeping a very close eye

27
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,880
Speaker 2: to see if there's any hint that they're changing direction.

28
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,200
Speaker 1: Okay, so is it the case that they've been sold

29
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,039
Speaker 1: to us, but it is a possible. It's possible that

30
00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,160
Speaker 1: they may be resold at a higher price to somebody

31
00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 1: else before they get to us.

32
00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:22,680
Speaker 2: I think they've been directed to come to us, but

33
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,640
Speaker 2: there's the possibility that they could get to sold to

34
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:26,640
Speaker 2: someone else on the way.

35
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,680
Speaker 1: Has that happened so far since this around war has happened,

36
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,240
Speaker 1: has started not to New Zealand.

37
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 2: I've seen crude carriers changed directions, so we've seen vessels

38
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,480
Speaker 2: that were due to go to ports in Southeast Asia

39
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 2: redirected to refineries in India. But for product tankers coming

40
00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,320
Speaker 2: to New Zealand, No, we certainly haven't seen that.

41
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,160
Speaker 1: Have we seen a slow down in the frequency of

42
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 1: tankers arriving here.

43
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,320
Speaker 2: So last the week that we're currently in we've only

44
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,040
Speaker 2: seen one tanker arrived. That was we saw that coming

45
00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. We had a glut of

46
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,280
Speaker 2: tankers come that first week. We had a slow down

47
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,360
Speaker 2: in the week we're in now, and then next week

48
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,360
Speaker 2: we're seeing four, and then the week after we're seeing

49
00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,160
Speaker 2: another four. So certainly this week has been slower, but

50
00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:08,440
Speaker 2: the next two weeks are looking good.

51
00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,960
Speaker 1: Okay, So no suggestion that there is any disruption to

52
00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 1: what we would ordinarily expect to arrive.

53
00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:15,920
Speaker 2: No, We're keeping a very close eye to see what

54
00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:17,839
Speaker 2: the tankers that are coming to New Zealand are doing.

55
00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:21,400
Speaker 2: But from what I can see, there is we had

56
00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,200
Speaker 2: a quick look we think of it. There's about sixteen

57
00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,560
Speaker 2: days of fuel supply on the water coming to New Zealand,

58
00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,480
Speaker 2: which is good for two weeks. Sixteen days of fuel supply,

59
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:30,640
Speaker 2: so that will keep us going.

60
00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,880
Speaker 1: Okay, Now, explain this to me because I get texts

61
00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:34,600
Speaker 1: like this. This is from Ricky Hither I drive a

62
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,360
Speaker 1: fuel tanker. We've been under allocation for two weeks. I

63
00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:39,720
Speaker 1: don't know where you're getting your info from. Several fuel

64
00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,760
Speaker 1: terminals in the North Island are empty.

65
00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,920
Speaker 2: Okay. We keep a track of the things that are

66
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,079
Speaker 2: on the water. I don't know what's happening.

67
00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 1: On the land ones.

68
00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,440
Speaker 2: But certainly could that be Certainly.

69
00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,240
Speaker 1: Could that might be explained simply by us perhaps buying

70
00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,040
Speaker 1: because we're panicking at a higher level, that our consumption

71
00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,040
Speaker 1: has gone up because we're stockpiling ourselves. Is that possibly this?

72
00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,840
Speaker 2: We heard that happen in West Australia very early on

73
00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:05,480
Speaker 2: in the piece that everyone has gone to fill up

74
00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,840
Speaker 2: their car, And certainly people who've got fuel like fuel

75
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,560
Speaker 2: bowsers at their workplace would have gone out and bought

76
00:03:12,639 --> 00:03:15,440
Speaker 2: up fuel as quickly as they could to secure themselves

77
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,360
Speaker 2: against the supply. So certainly it could be a case

78
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 2: of the fuels in New Zealand. It's just not where

79
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:20,160
Speaker 2: it normally is.

80
00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, now in is it oil? Watch the website?

81
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 1: Do you rate it?

82
00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,440
Speaker 2: It is amazing what AI can do today in terms

83
00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,680
Speaker 2: of bringing together a whole bunch of information and putting

84
00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:34,520
Speaker 2: it on a very nice dashboard. I think we all

85
00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 2: need to be very careful about where the information is

86
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,520
Speaker 2: coming from and what it's telling us. I think the

87
00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,600
Speaker 2: NBA and the government are doing a great job of

88
00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,520
Speaker 2: telling us as much as they can be certain of,

89
00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 2: and we can see a lot. We just have to

90
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 2: be very careful when we see dashboards and other things

91
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,040
Speaker 2: like that, appearing to dive very deep into it and

92
00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:53,080
Speaker 2: to check what we're seeing.

93
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,280
Speaker 1: Mark, is that your very diplomatic and polite way of

94
00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,480
Speaker 1: saying that this's just a rubbish website. Don't give it

95
00:03:58,480 --> 00:03:59,040
Speaker 1: any attention.

96
00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 2: I haven't dug it enough to call it rubbish, but

97
00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,080
Speaker 2: I would certainly advise that people don't rush out and

98
00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:07,880
Speaker 2: buy fuel based on what's on that website.

99
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,760
Speaker 1: Mark, Thanks very much, appreciate your time as always, Mark Douglas,

100
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,479
Speaker 1: Starboard Maritime Intelligenced. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,

101
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:20,039
Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays,

102
00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,360
Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio