1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: Peter Lewis Asia Business correspondenters with US. Hello Peter, Hello Heather, Right, Well, 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: who do you think is going to be Japan's nixt 3 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: prime minister. 4 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 2: Well, the chances are it's going to be a rather 5 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 2: elderly man who's been around in politics for probably too long, 6 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: because that's the way it normally works in Japan. They're 7 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 2: all sort of jockeying up for position they've got to get. 8 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: If you want to be the contender for this LDP election, 9 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 2: you've got to get twenty other lawmakers to support you, 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 2: and then you have to win first of all, that 11 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 2: leadership vote within the LDP itself. But even then it's 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,599 Speaker 2: not enough. You've got to then go to Parliament and 13 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: be voted by a majority in Parliament in the upper 14 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: and lower houses. And this is where it could be 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: tricky because this isn't guaranteed either, because the problem is 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: the LDP has lost its majority in both the upper 17 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: House and the lower House, which is why we're having 18 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: this election in the first place. And then maybe having 19 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: been appointed prime minister, your chances of survival are not 20 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 2: because Japan has had eighteen prime ministers since nineteen ninety 21 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 2: and eleven of them have lasted only one year, so 22 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: the candidates the main two is first of all, Shinjiro Koizumi. 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 2: Now he's the son of a former prime minister, so 24 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 2: he has name recognition amongst the public within Japan. He's 25 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: also the agricultural minister, and he has got some credit 26 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:29,839 Speaker 2: because he managed to drive down rice prices over the summer. 27 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 2: One of the things that was really led to the 28 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 2: LDP losing their majority was surging inflation, particularly rice, which 29 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: doubled in the space of just a few months, while 30 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 2: he managed to get to grips to that. So he's 31 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: certainly going to be within the race. The other candidates 32 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,639 Speaker 2: who breaks the mold of elderly men running for the 33 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 2: to be prime minister is Takaichi Senai, who is a 34 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: proje prodge of the late Prime minister Shinzo are They 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 2: and she's a woman, so Japan could conceivably have its 36 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: first female prime minister. She's a conservative, so she would 37 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 2: attract obviously the sort of the middle ground, the right 38 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 2: wing base, many of whom have defected to some of 39 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: these protest parties. So she is definitely a name to 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 2: watch and she certainly has a chance. 41 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: Very interesting stuff. Now, why is Japan allowing Donald Trump 42 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: to decide where Japan invests its money. 43 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 2: This is an extraordinarily one sided deal, to the point 44 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 2: at which you almost have to believe that maybe Donald 45 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: Trump is not a bad trade negotiet After all. What 46 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 2: they are doing is they've got this fight. As part 47 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:43,920 Speaker 2: of the trade deal, which got tariffs reduced on the country, 48 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 2: particularly on auto ed exports, down to fifteen percent, Japan 49 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 2: agreed to invest five hundred and fifty billion dollars into 50 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 2: the US. Now it seems as details of that emerge 51 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 2: that really the US has total control over where japan 52 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: money is going to be invested. They're going to set 53 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 2: up an investment committee which will be run by US 54 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik, and they will decide where that 55 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 2: money is going to go. And what's more, once the 56 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 2: original investment has been paid back, the US is going 57 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: to keep ninety percent of the profits. This is an 58 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 2: extraordinary deal to the point that you wonder what on 59 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 2: earth is Japan thinking in negotiating that, or former Prime 60 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: Minister Sheiba thinking. You can only imagine that maybe they 61 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 2: are just so desperate for this trade deal, particularly the 62 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: reduction in tariffs on the auto sector because that's the 63 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 2: main part of Japan's economy that they're taking. The view 64 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 2: that maybe five hundred and fifty billion dollars over three 65 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: years for Japan is not an awful lot of money, 66 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: and it will save them an awful lot of economic damage. 67 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: But nevertheless, this is a very very one sided deal. 68 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: The US has total discretion to decide if Japan is 69 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: keeping that deal as well, and if they don't get 70 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: the money or don't feel that it's the deal is 71 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: being upheld, they can go at their discretion reimpose all 72 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: these tariffs on Japan. 73 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, Hi, thanks very much, Peter, I really appreciate it. 74 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next week again. That's Peter Lewis, 75 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: our Asia business correspondent coming up for what for more 76 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: from Hither Duplassy Alan Drive. Listen live to news talks. 77 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast 78 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.