1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,599 Speaker 1: So the rental market continues to trend towards the rent 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: and new numbers out this morning shows the national media 3 00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: and rental fell zero point three percent. This is three 4 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,479 Speaker 1: months to May. That's the first national drop since two 5 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: thousand and nine. Mike Atkinson, Managing director of Aspire Property Management, 6 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: is back. Well this Mike morning to you, Good morning. 7 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Has this got something to do with the population? Fewer 8 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: migrants coming to the country, therefore it's the classic supply 9 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: demand scenario. 10 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 2: I think it is. I think there's sort of three 11 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 2: key drivers behind this, and one of them is obviously 12 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: the lack of demand, because you know, two years ago, 13 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: I think we had a plus one hundred and seventy 14 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: five thousand people coming into the country. This year only 15 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 2: plus twenty six so that's a huge drop off. And 16 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,319 Speaker 2: then you pat, you know, you combine that with we've 17 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 2: got fourteen thousand properties up for rent on trade me 18 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: today this time last year only eleven thousand, so you know, 19 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 2: that's a twenty percent increase in the number of properties. 20 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: And at the moment also tenants, you know, they have 21 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: less money to spend on rent a household and comes 22 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: rent up one point seven percent last year but that 23 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: was nominal also not including inflation, which was about four percent, 24 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 2: So your tenant has two point six percent less money 25 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 2: to spend on rent as well. So when you combine 26 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 2: all of those three factors, we are looking at having 27 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 2: our first year with a drop in rents across the 28 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: country going all the way back to two thousand. 29 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: What about the other side of the equation, the interest 30 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 1: rates are coming down, the investor might be a bit 31 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: more active. You buy a house, are they about the 32 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: place and therefore they're adding to supply? 33 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, so, I mean landlords have had a really tough 34 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 2: time recently. So while it could be you know, another 35 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: three months of paying for landlords, I do see a 36 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:37,759 Speaker 2: bit of light at the end of the tunnel. When 37 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: you know, migration is seasonal, so when we head into summer, 38 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 2: we should see those numbers come up. 39 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: What's your call for the rest of the year. What 40 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 1: do you think is going to happen in terms of 41 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: the actual rate? See I look around the country. It's 42 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 1: about six hundred ish, isn't it. With a few variations, 43 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: about six hundred and something dollars will get you a. 44 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: House, that's right, So you know, for landlords they might 45 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: be a bit concerned about seeing that these rent numbers 46 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: had come down, but over the last seven years they've 47 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: gone up fifty percent, so you know, they're still getting 48 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: more rent than they were getting a couple of years ago. 49 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 2: My prediction for the rest of the year is that 50 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 2: there is a bit of a lag in these numbers. 51 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 2: We sort of saw all these drivers lining up as 52 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 2: early as sort of July last year, so I do 53 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 2: think that we could see another quarter with the rents 54 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: coming down before they hopefully go back to flat. But 55 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 2: I do think that by the end of the year 56 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 2: things could be in a better place for landlords. 57 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: All right, good, and so I might appreciate your time. 58 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: Mike Atkinson, managing director of A Spy. 59 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 60 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: news talks that'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 61 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.