1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,560 Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge, can we go into our Asia business correspondent 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Peter Lewis. Peter, the China trade surplus the largest and five. 3 00:00:07,600 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: Months Yeah, hi Ryan, this is indeed it's growing. In fact, 4 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 2: it's on track to reach one trillion dollars with all 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 2: the countries in the world, and in fact, China runs 6 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: the trade surplus with nearly every single country in the world, 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: and there's up forty percent in November alone. I mean, 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: this is really unsustainable. It's been unsustainable for a while, 9 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 2: but obviously it's attracted the attention of Donald Trump, who 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: no doubt is ready his terriff pen for when he 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: gets into a power in January. He's already threatened additional 12 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: tariffs on China causes big problems for Europe. I mean, 13 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: they're being flooded with ev electric vehicle imports and their 14 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: own auto industry just can't compete with this flood of 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: Chinese goods. The way the trade surplace has come about 16 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 2: is because although exports grew, imports declined, So it means 17 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 2: that actually other countries around the world are struggling to 18 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: export their goods to China. And the reason why imports 19 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 2: have fallen in China is because a weak domestic demand. 20 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: The economy is not doing that well at the moment, 21 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 2: and consumers in China just don't want to go out 22 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 2: and spend, so as a result, there really is a 23 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 2: lot of sort of pent up demand, but it's not 24 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 2: being released now. We've just had the Chinese Economic Work Conference, 25 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 2: which is held every year, led by President hu Jinping, 26 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 2: and they've said they are going to make boosting domestic 27 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: demand their top priority for next year. But they did 28 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: say that a year ago as well, and we haven't 29 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 2: seen that happen, and they didn't provide any details of 30 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 2: what they were going to do to try and boost 31 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: domestic demand. 32 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: Interesting one of those countries that's affected by exactly what 33 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: you've just described. You know, obviously, we have a lot 34 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: of milk and dairy products that we've seen up to 35 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: China and that weaker demand has been affecting us massively. 36 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: It's going to South Korea. The president there still clinging 37 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: to office and refusing to resign, even though there's going 38 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: to be a vice to and picture. 39 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 2: Yes, I think he's going to be out by Saturday. 40 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 2: They're going to hold a second impeachment vote. The first 41 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: time around, he survived by the skin of his teeth 42 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 2: because the opposition parties need eight members of the People 43 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 2: Power Party that's the ruling conservative party to cross the 44 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: aisle and join them in voting for impeachment. Now, last time, 45 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: the leaders of his party sort of did a deal 46 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 2: with him whereby, in consequence of saving him from impeachment, 47 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 2: he would in effect hand over his powers to admit 48 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: to his cabinets and ministers and also to the party, 49 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: and they would take over a lot of his state duties. 50 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 2: Now there's no constitutional arrangement that allows for that, but 51 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: nevertheless it seems to be agreed whereby he would be 52 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 2: president in name only, but wouldn't really have any powers anyway. 53 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 2: On Thursday, he gave a speech where he made it 54 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: clear he wasn't prepared to do any such thing. He 55 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: said he was going to fight until the last moment. 56 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 2: He was blaming the decision to impose military rule on 57 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 2: what he called anti state forces, and he suggested that 58 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: North Korea had helped the opposition parties secure their victory 59 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: in the parliamentary elections earlier in the year. Now, the 60 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 2: more this is looked into, the police are investigating to 61 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 2: see whether there's grounds for charging him with treason. It 62 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 2: looks like one of the things they discovered is that 63 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 2: Defense Minister, when they announced this plan for martial law, 64 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: sent drones into North Korea in the hope of provoking 65 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 2: some sort of response from the North that would then 66 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: justify the position of martial law. So really it's quite 67 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 2: an extraordinary situation. But it seems almost almost impossible now 68 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: for you to survive the second impeachment vote on Saturday. 69 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: What's up with this guy behind this ego on him? 70 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: What is this? 71 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 2: Well he has actually yes, and you know, it's hard 72 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 2: to imagine what he was thinking of because he must 73 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 2: have known that the impeachment, the imposition of martial law 74 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: could be overturned by a vote in parliament, and that's 75 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:41,720 Speaker 2: exactly what happened. Maybe he thought that that the military 76 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 2: would stop MP's getting to parliament in order to be 77 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 2: able to hold that vote, but in fact, the military 78 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 2: didn't do an awful lot to stop them, so that 79 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 2: that vote went ahead and it really styled his plan. 80 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 2: But yes, it is very difficult to imagine what an 81 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: earth was he thinking of here, because certainly the people 82 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 2: of South Korea are never going to accept either this 83 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 2: new arrangement that has come up with or the imposition 84 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 2: of martial law. They've got a very long, sad history 85 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 2: of martial law in South Korea and they certainly don't 86 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 2: want to go back to those days. 87 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: Certainly not right. Let's move on from South Korea. Talk 88 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: about the Taiwan military on highlard at the moment because 89 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: of Chinese warship sailing near them. 90 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: Yes, another set of exercises going on, quite a big 91 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: set of exercises this time, which involves ships of sailing 92 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 2: through the Taiwan Strait, surrounding the island, stimulating blockades and 93 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 2: so on. This time it's come because the Taiwanese President, 94 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 2: William Lai visited Guama and Hawaii on a stop off 95 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 2: to the South Pacific, and that enraged China. They really 96 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: don't like any part of America or any American state 97 00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 2: hosting the Taiwanese president. So that's what's prompted the latest 98 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: round of maneuvers. But these are the things with these 99 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 2: is that they are constantly keeping Taiwan on high alert 100 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 2: because they have to respond. Their military has to check 101 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: out what's going on. You know, the planes that are 102 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 2: crossing the demarcation line, they have to spend a lot 103 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 2: of money and time on doing this, so it really 104 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 2: stretches Taiwan's military, and I think that is part of 105 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 2: the aim of China here to just try and see 106 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 2: how far it can go and and how much the 107 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 2: Taiwanese military is able to respond. And clearly the worry 108 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 2: is that one day one of these maneuvers will turn 109 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 2: out to be not a drill, but will actually turn 110 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 2: out to be the real thing, and China will go 111 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: and launch an invasion of Taiwan. 112 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,279 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplassy Alan Drive, listen live to 113 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 114 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.