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Speaker 1: Sixteen pass six on newstalk ZEDB. Liam Dan, the New

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Speaker 1: Zealand Heral Business editor at large, was keeping a close

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Speaker 1: eye on the mood of the boardroom today. Getay liamb gooday,

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Speaker 1: Jack has thinks yeah very well. Thanks. So what did

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Speaker 1: you make of the superannuation called?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Heartening? From my point of view as someone who

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Speaker 2: sits there and worries about our ability to pay for things,

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Speaker 2: I guess you know when you looked at listen to

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Speaker 2: what was said in that debate, it's hard to make

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Speaker 2: a news story out of it, exactly because Barbara Edmonds

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Speaker 2: was very careful about what you said. You just said,

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Speaker 2: we're open to the conversation, but you know, you it

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Speaker 2: felt like the body language and so forth, that there

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Speaker 2: could be some mood for change there, which of course

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Speaker 2: would put national could put national neighbor on the same

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Speaker 2: page and bipartisan sort of stuff like that is pretty

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Speaker 2: powerful that the roadblock to it actually at the moment

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Speaker 2: in the current coalition is of course New Zealand first

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Speaker 2: and Winston Peters, who has been resistant for a long time.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I know he's he's got a large

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Speaker 2: base of older voters. But it really doesn't affect them.

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Speaker 2: If we're honest, it's you're talking about raising the superage

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Speaker 2: over a long period. I think the original plan under

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Speaker 2: Bill English twenty seventeen was to lift it for twenty forty. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, I don't know what a new one would

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Speaker 2: look like, but there was there was a large consensus

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Speaker 2: I guess seventy seven percent plus of those business leaders

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Speaker 2: who see that we need to have a debate about

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Speaker 2: the tax base because we're not going to be taking

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Speaker 2: enough tax because it's just demographics. We're going to have fewer,

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Speaker 2: fewer younger people, more older people. That means more people

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Speaker 2: I guess to support, and fewer people actually generating income tax.

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Speaker 2: And at the moment, of course, our tax system is

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Speaker 2: built on income tax, not on other kinds of tax.

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Speaker 2: Dore I go near that debate.

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Speaker 1: No, avoid it, trust me. Hey, I mean that's a

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Speaker 1: that's you know, That's what I find really interesting about this, right, So,

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Speaker 1: not only because of the demographic changes, are we going

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Speaker 1: to face the pressures of supporting people through the superannuation

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Speaker 1: payments themselves like the four ninely payments. But the problem

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Speaker 1: is when you have an older population, your healthcare costs

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Speaker 1: massively increase as well, because like you know, so generally

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Speaker 1: the average twenty five year old doesn't cost nearly as

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Speaker 1: much to the health system as someone who's seventy five,

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Speaker 1: right or eighty five. That generally the older you are,

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Speaker 1: the more you cost. So you have all of these

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Speaker 1: pressures that come with those demographic changes, not just represented

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Speaker 1: in super but when you combine them together, I mean,

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Speaker 1: and given we're already in a structural deficit, it's very

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Speaker 1: hard to see how we're going to we'd.

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Speaker 2: Like and we'd all like to keep that first world

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Speaker 2: health system in our into our later years, I think,

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Speaker 2: you know. And does leave you with options that are

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Speaker 2: either tax more, spend less or the one that all

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Speaker 2: the politicians always fall back on is that we're going

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Speaker 2: to deliver policies which drive productivity and zealone is going

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Speaker 2: to be But you know, the issue is do we

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Speaker 2: really have the right economy to do that, even if

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Speaker 2: even if things are you know, are starting to improve,

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Speaker 2: or there's signs of hope another cyclical upturn as you know,

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Speaker 2: rising house prices and the immigration going to be enough

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Speaker 2: this time, while only the ounce is probably not. We're

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Speaker 2: not going to have another China boom the way we

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Speaker 2: did have. So we're looking for something else a bit

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Speaker 2: deeper and a bit more structural. I think it was

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Speaker 2: happening today. I think, you know, it was a pretty

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Speaker 2: high level kind of debate between Barbara Nicola and people

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Speaker 2: were pretty impressed with the ability of them to communicate

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Speaker 2: and that sort of thing. And so I know there

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Speaker 2: is a lot of desire, whether it's infrastructure or whatever,

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Speaker 2: for a bit more bipartisan thinking so that we can

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Speaker 2: stop flip flopping in these political political cycles.

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Speaker 1: And liam a bit more of a nuanced debate about

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Speaker 1: a CGT.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean I just think you know, certainly

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Speaker 2: a large percentage of the people in that room, which

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Speaker 2: you wouldn't necessarily expect it tends to come from the

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Speaker 2: left the CGT, and that that's kind of a hindrance

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Speaker 2: in a way because people are never quite sure whether

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Speaker 2: it's tied up with wealth tax and all the rest

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Speaker 2: of it. But the people, for the people in that

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Speaker 2: room who like it. I was talking to tax you know, accountants,

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Speaker 2: high level accountants and tax experts and things. It's really

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Speaker 2: about broadening that tax base, as as I mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 2: so it's about you know, maybe we've got to get

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Speaker 2: away from calling it a capital gains tax or whatever.

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Speaker 2: But you know it's some some level we need to

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Speaker 2: broaden it and people need to remember. And this was

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Speaker 2: not something that the Prome Minister to make clear when

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Speaker 2: he was responding to Antonio Wattson today and did the

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Speaker 2: original column plan was tax revenue neutral. So it's not

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Speaker 2: taking not meant to be taking more tax on the

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Speaker 2: first instance, off New Zealanders the base, so you should

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Speaker 2: actually be getting an income tax break if they're taking

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Speaker 2: some tax off off the other end, at the at

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Speaker 2: the wealthier end or at the possibly the older end.

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Speaker 2: It does it does shift the demographic shape of the

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Speaker 2: tax base, but that's really what's going to have to move.

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Speaker 1: It's a version of the of the John Key tax switch.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and I talked to Bill english And

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Speaker 2: last week or so. That's up online right now, and

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Speaker 2: he talks about that being one of the things you're

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Speaker 2: most proud of achieving because it's a very difficult thing

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Speaker 2: to do. It's a difficult argument to win, right, So.

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Speaker 1: Did that end up being revenue neutral? From the top

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Speaker 1: of my head it wasn't.

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Speaker 2: I can't remember. But one of the things Bill English

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Speaker 2: said is he was lucky to have a prime minister

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Speaker 2: like John Key who could sell that argument, so they

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Speaker 2: managed to get an unpopular policy through. I wonder whether

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Speaker 2: as good as Barbara Edmonds is likely to be it

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Speaker 2: actually building or writing a tax policy because he is

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Speaker 2: a tax expert, where the labor has the leadership there

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Speaker 2: to actually sell it at the moment, I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: Hey, thanks Liam, I appreciate it. That's New Zealand Herald

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Speaker 1: Business editor at Large, Liam Dan. You can hear that

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Speaker 1: interview with the Bill English by subscribing to Money Talks,

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Speaker 1: which is Liam's superb podcast. You can hear it on

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio as well twenty two past six. For more from

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Speaker 1: Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks it'd

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Speaker 1: be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on

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Speaker 1: Iheardvideo