1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: I just want to know what Raylean found so funny, 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: obviously not our GDP numbers which are out today, And 3 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: I can tell you we fell by a whopping one 4 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: percent in Q three. Q two was revised down to 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: a huge one point one percent. It was point two. 6 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: This officially makes this the deepest recession bar lockdowns since 7 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,600 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one. The Reserve Bank Governor Adrian or Well, 8 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: we didn't ask him on the program. He's declined our 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: interview requests. This evening, Former Finance Minster Stephen Joyce is 10 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: with me live though. 11 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: Good evening, Hi, Ran, how are you. 12 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: I'm well, thank you. What's your take on today's numbers. 13 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 2: Well, I think some people have got some questions to answer, 14 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 2: to be honest, including the Reserve Bank Governess. I'm not 15 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: surprised you asked him on because what we're really seeing 16 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 2: once again is that he was both heavy footed on 17 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 2: the way up and heavy footed on the way down. 18 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 2: And I think there is some legitimate questions to be asked. 19 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 2: I can remember as quite recently him saying he's got 20 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: it all under control and that this is going to 21 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 2: be a soft Well, quite clearly it wasn't. I think 22 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: we've none about it for some time. Now we have 23 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: the figures to confirm it. 24 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, we've all felt it. Do you think he should 25 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: what should the government remove him? 26 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 2: Should he go? I mean, well, no, I don't think 27 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 2: the government should remove him, because I think once you 28 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 2: start removing central bank governance, that's a mistake. But I 29 00:01:18,160 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: think he does over the country an explanation, but not 30 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 2: just him. Frankly, I think we had a couple of 31 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 2: things with the previous government. You know, they were very 32 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: very similar on the fiscal side, so we had a 33 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 2: panicked overdoing of the response on both fiscally and monetarily wise, 34 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 2: and now we're reaping the rewards of that, which aren't 35 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: very pleasant. And it's been a very, very tough year, 36 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 2: and so there are lots of questions to answer. I 37 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,919 Speaker 2: think we've had a six or seven year period where 38 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 2: people have said, oh, well, the economy will just cope 39 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 2: with whatever we throw at it, and that includes the 40 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: COVID response, and some of that was necess and some 41 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: of it wasn't. And so now the reality is we 42 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: need a period of time where we actually focus on 43 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 2: growing this economy because quite clearly, when we treated the 44 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 2: way we did in the last six or seven years, 45 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 2: it gets really damaged and that it hurts every day new. 46 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: We hammered the master Card, no doubt about it. But 47 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: to be fear to Adrian and to the previous government. 48 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 1: You look at Australia, Yeah, they're growing at what point 49 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: eight percent this year. That's the slowest since the early 50 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: nineties for them as well outside of COVID. 51 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, but they're growing, which makes it it's a much 52 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 2: more pleasant experience. And I think a lot of people 53 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 2: that have spent time in Australia recently. I haven't, but 54 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: I know a lot of people that have would say 55 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: it's a different vibe over there than it is in 56 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 2: this country. At the moment, it's quite stark. And we 57 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 2: can see that with the numbers moving to Australia, is 58 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 2: that it's once again seen as quite a big difference 59 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 2: an opportunity for people than here. And there's pretty people 60 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 2: on the left that will seek to blame the current 61 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 2: government for that, but actually, you know, this has been 62 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 2: this has been set up over the last six or 63 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 2: seven years. 64 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: I think when we had the Haifu on Tuesday and 65 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: Nicola Willis came on the show, I was asking her 66 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: about whether she was going to go deeper and harder 67 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: with the cuts given the state of the books. I mean, 68 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: we're borrowing, We're not even going to get to start 69 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 1: paying back any of that COVID debt until we get 70 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: to surplus, which is not going to be until the 71 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: twenty thirties, So why not cut deeper? Does today's numbers 72 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: kind of signal why she's got a real balancing act 73 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: on her hands here? 74 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 2: Oh, she absolutely has a you know, I think I've 75 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 2: felt that it's going to end up a bit like 76 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: this ever since, ever since she got the job, because 77 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: the numbers. I think the numbers were always looking at 78 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 2: being harder to balance than it was for us when 79 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: we came in after the GFC, and that was hard enough, frankly, 80 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 2: And I've I thought she's been in a difficult position 81 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: ever since she's taken on the job because it was 82 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 2: always going to be worse, and Treasury's projections forward are 83 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 2: always going to deteriorate at the stage of the cycle. 84 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: At some point they'll turn and they'll say, oh, well, 85 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,679 Speaker 2: things will get better because Treasury. Treasury has a habit 86 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 2: of drawing lines from where we are and saying, oh, 87 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 2: it's just going to get terrible. So I don't think 88 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: it necessarily is going to be as bad as they say, 89 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 2: but it's bad enough. And now that we're talking debt 90 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: to GDP ratios of getting towards the high forties percent, 91 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 2: the difficulty, Yeah, that's right. And the difficulty with that 92 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 2: is is you can make the argument that that's not 93 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 2: the end of the world, but we're only one big 94 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: sort of natural shock away from being another ten percent 95 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: on top of that, God forbid something else happens, but 96 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: it does tend to happen from time to time in 97 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: this country. So we do need to get it under control. 98 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 2: And that means the current government is probably going to 99 00:04:54,839 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: have to push harder than they expected to do some things. 100 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 2: It's not just cutting costs, so that's the significant part 101 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: of it. It's moving faster to grow the economy and 102 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 2: to encourage investment. And you know, they've done quite a 103 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 2: lot in this first year, but actually they need to 104 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,559 Speaker 2: have a break and come back and go harder again 105 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 2: because we need to, for example, don't just talk about 106 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 2: attracting investment, is take some steps to actually attract some investment. 107 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 2: Now they've done a bit in the rm A space, 108 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 2: but I'm talking about overseas investment as well, because the 109 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 2: infrastructure pipeline can't happen without overseas investment. We don't have 110 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 2: any do and getting a lot of investment in the 111 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 2: in the in the private sector businesses will involve overseas 112 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: investment as well. So we need to stop talking about 113 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: that and actually doing it. So there's a bunch of 114 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: things that they're going to have to move faster on 115 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 2: in the new year. And that's difficult because you're in 116 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 2: a coalition and all the easy stuff has been done 117 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,279 Speaker 2: the fact, but you know, everybody's agreed on the things 118 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 2: that have been done so far, and we've seen with 119 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,799 Speaker 2: the ferries, the ferries and so on, that Sonali things. 120 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 2: They all have to become on overseas investment. 121 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: And if you Handber in the passenger seat too, thank 122 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: you very much for coming on the program. Great to 123 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 1: have you on as always, Stephen Joyce, former Finance Minister. 124 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 125 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,799 Speaker 1: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 126 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.