Speaker 1: Kyoda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast.
Speaker 1: Presented by the New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2: Cost of living and the economy remain top of the
Speaker 2: agenda for national.
Speaker 1: Prime Minister Christopher.
Speaker 2: Luxeen's already touting his leadership as one that is a
Speaker 2: clear choice for New Zealander's at next year's election, saying
Speaker 2: the government inherited.
Speaker 1: A mess and is sorting it out.
Speaker 2: However, commentators have been quick to point out the issues
Speaker 2: facing National ahead of the campaign, writing that Luxon is
Speaker 2: getting worried and that National is a mess. So as
Speaker 2: the battle lines start getting drawn in the beehive, what
Speaker 2: is ahead for politicians today? On the front Page, Outgoing
Speaker 2: News Talk z B political editor Jason Walls joins us
Speaker 2: to discuss the past week in politics and what could
Speaker 2: lie head. First off, Jase, Christopher Exxon's out here talking
Speaker 2: about cleaning up messes, trust in his leadership and that
Speaker 2: the country's best days lie ahead. It kind of sounds
Speaker 2: like it's in a campaign mode already, Is it a
Speaker 2: bit too soon?
Speaker 3: Oh? Well, when you're a prime minister, or any politician
Speaker 3: for that matter, every day is campaign mode because you're
Speaker 3: always looking to get reelected. And I think, especially now,
Speaker 3: you've got a national party that was so focused on
Speaker 3: the economy and saying we're the guys that can handle this,
Speaker 3: trust us to turn this around. And eighteen months later,
Speaker 3: I mean, we're in a position where things aren't looking good.
Speaker 3: So I would say it's almost less campaigning. Is its
Speaker 3: damage control at this stage because you can talk about
Speaker 3: things like global factors until the cows come home, But
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, when the Nats are
Speaker 3: in opposition, they're ignoring those things and taking a crack
Speaker 3: at the then current government. So I think the chickens
Speaker 3: have in some ways come home to roost a little
Speaker 3: bit there.
Speaker 2: Do Winston's small array of random bills being put into
Speaker 2: the Biggie ten spell a bit of I don't know,
Speaker 2: preparation from New Zealand. First, maybe they're slowly trying to
Speaker 2: back away from the coalition.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean I just talked a moment ago about
Speaker 3: how every politician is always in campaign mode. There is
Speaker 3: nobody more so than Winston, Raymond Peter is always in
Speaker 3: campaign mode. And listen, this is just it's an interesting
Speaker 3: phenomenon this New Zealand. First, I would say clogging the
Speaker 3: biscuit tin with some fairly irrelevant sort of bills, because
Speaker 3: if you're in a government party, you have the ability
Speaker 3: to put things on the government as gender and some
Speaker 3: of these things about you know, only flying New Zealand
Speaker 3: flags outside of New Zealand government buildings, which is a
Speaker 3: not of things like the LGBTQI plus flag and various
Speaker 3: other different flags that he's just making into these sort
Speaker 3: of these culture wars and giving it the shroud of
Speaker 3: authenticity by putting it in the biscuit tin means that
Speaker 3: I think he thinks that it's going to have more
Speaker 3: of a poll with the public where it's actually not.
Speaker 3: I mean, just you could just put out a press
Speaker 3: release for these things. But what it's doing is you've
Speaker 3: got other bills in the ballot. For example, Laura McClure
Speaker 3: from the ACT Party has this fantastic bill where she
Speaker 3: wants to ban nontensensual AI pawn And because Winston is
Speaker 3: putting every second week some of these bills in the ballot,
Speaker 3: which are frankly not very good pieces of legislation, it
Speaker 3: means it has less of a chance for the really
Speaker 3: good pieces of legislation to be pulled out. So, yes,
Speaker 3: it is one hundred percent electioneering by Winston and New
Speaker 3: Zealand first. But I'm not surprised in the slightest.
Speaker 2: We had Chris Hipkins on the podcast the other week.
Speaker 2: He seems to think we should have a little look
Speaker 2: about how MMP works.
Speaker 4: I differ for a bit from the current government and
Speaker 4: the sense that, you know, I respect the important constituencies
Speaker 4: the smaller parties represent, and I also respect that we
Speaker 4: compete with them for votes too. I don't think under
Speaker 4: MMP the smaller parties should call all of the shots,
Speaker 4: you know. I still think that the bigger parties have
Speaker 4: a man to reflect the view of a much larger
Speaker 4: section of the electorate, and so I do think under
Speaker 4: MMP you need to kind of keep proportionality in mind. Yes,
Speaker 4: there should be some concessions and some trade offs to
Speaker 4: the other parties in order to form government, but that
Speaker 4: doesn't mean that you should be doing things that you
Speaker 4: specifically told the electorate before the election that you weren't
Speaker 4: going to do.
Speaker 1: What do you make of that suggestion.
Speaker 3: I think it's kind of ironic coming from Chris Hopkins,
Speaker 3: who will probably be working with if he gets into government.
Speaker 3: TI Party Marii and the Greens, who will have a
Speaker 3: disproportionate impact because if you just look at their rhetoric
Speaker 3: now and I know things do get toned down a
Speaker 3: little bit when you're in government, but that will be
Speaker 3: a case of the tail wagging the dog in numerous circumstances.
Speaker 3: And frankly, I mean that's just the system that we
Speaker 3: have in New Zealand. We have an MMP system where
Speaker 3: we don't have one party that has all the power.
Speaker 3: They actually do have to have communication and consultation with
Speaker 3: some of the smaller parties, but it's in. Remember it's in.
Speaker 3: Chris Hipkins is the best interest to call out the
Speaker 3: government for the sort of what he considerts to be
Speaker 3: the more fringe aspects of the right because it's going
Speaker 3: to turn a lot of middle voters off. But he's
Speaker 3: got to be careful because you know, it's throwing stones
Speaker 3: in a glasshouse, because when it comes to the election,
Speaker 3: or even beforehand, you get parties on the right hand
Speaker 3: side saying the exact same thing about Chris Luxen, are
Speaker 3: Chris Hickins rather and the further left of that political
Speaker 3: spectrum with TI Party Marty.
Speaker 2: Especially, how do you reckon everything's going at the moment.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hardly been a coalition of chaos, has it.
Speaker 3: No, it hasn't. And I think and will I will
Speaker 3: always say this, and it's one of my lasting memories
Speaker 3: or one of my lasting opinions of politics, is that
Speaker 3: Chris Luxen put together an extremely good coalition agreement. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's just again, we have to and we forget about
Speaker 3: this sometimes, but we have to remember that it's three
Speaker 3: parties in a coalition. That means you've got three parties
Speaker 3: around the cabinet table. It's never been done. We've had
Speaker 3: confidence and supply mixed in with coalition, with the least
Speaker 3: labor government, and various other iterations in the past that
Speaker 3: three actual parties in a coalition government. Of course, we
Speaker 3: got people saying it was going to be a coalition
Speaker 3: of chaos because you look at Winston and you look
Speaker 3: at Seymour. I mean, when they're in opposition, they were
Speaker 3: literally threatening to fight each other. I don't use the
Speaker 3: word literally often, but they were.
Speaker 1: They literally meet me outside.
Speaker 3: There'll be three Winston was talking about how he had
Speaker 3: hit David Seymour and he'd have to call the ambulance
Speaker 3: this actually happened. It was just this wild West time
Speaker 3: and politics, and now the three of them are sitting
Speaker 3: around the cabinet table being all hunky doory with each other.
Speaker 3: Of course, people were saying that this was going to
Speaker 3: be a coalition of chaos, but because that coalition agreement
Speaker 3: was crafted so intricately, it meant that we've seen them
Speaker 3: have their little scuffles. I'm sure that there has an
Speaker 3: eyes I understand it. Quite a lot of disagreements behind
Speaker 3: the scene, but as long as they stick to the
Speaker 3: legislative agenda that they've put forth, that's exactly what they've
Speaker 3: promised to the New Zealand voter.
Speaker 2: A few commentators for The Herald have written about the
Speaker 2: potential concerns facing National. So Audrey Young wrote that Luxon
Speaker 2: is getting worried about National's messaging not getting through. Simon
Speaker 2: Wilson said that National is making a hash of things,
Speaker 2: and Matthew Houghton has declared Luxon is living on borrowed time.
Speaker 2: Not exactly the best headlines for them at the minute.
Speaker 2: What's causing this trend of headlines.
Speaker 1: I suppose it's.
Speaker 3: Just grim out there. It's just grim. It's the economy stupid,
Speaker 3: not telling you stupid. Of course, Chelse love you love
Speaker 3: your work. But it's the old phrase. National got into
Speaker 3: power by saying that they would fix the economy, and
Speaker 3: as Chris Hipkins has pointed out, it's been eighteen months
Speaker 3: and it's not fixed. You do have Chris Luxon on
Speaker 3: the other hand saying things like, well, it's going to
Speaker 3: take more than eighteen months to turn it around. But
Speaker 3: it was Nikola Willis singliston twenty twenty five is going
Speaker 3: to be better, just wait for those interest rates to
Speaker 3: filter through.
Speaker 1: And which is was that thrive so twenty twenty five?
Speaker 1: At one point?
Speaker 3: Was it survive for twenty twenty five? I think it
Speaker 3: was because things were still grim in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: But how I'm not feeling I'm not thriving. I'm not
Speaker 3: sure that you are. I mean, I'm looking down the
Speaker 3: barrel of a massive loss in the house that I own.
Speaker 3: And you know that You've got a lot of my
Speaker 3: friends that are moving overseas. A lot of it is
Speaker 3: getting quite personal now, and people vote on the personal
Speaker 3: and if it starts to impact you, it starts to
Speaker 3: affect you. If you start seeing some of your friends,
Speaker 3: some of your colleagues losing their job. As we see
Speaker 3: unemployment tacking up, that starts to become a problem and
Speaker 3: people want to look for someone to blame.
Speaker 2: What do you think the government has actually is aware
Speaker 2: of the impacts of cost of living. We had some
Speaker 2: worrying unemployment stats out this week, but Finance Minister Nichola
Speaker 2: Willis said people were taking a glass half empty approach
Speaker 2: and once again blamed the previous government.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and listen, I kind of do feel for Nikola
Speaker 3: Willis on this one, because she is right. You know,
Speaker 3: Treasury were expecting I think a five point three five
Speaker 3: point four percent unemployment rate. We got five point two,
Speaker 3: So it is better than expectations. It's better than what
Speaker 3: a lot of economists were expecting. But it's still right
Speaker 3: up there with the highest unemployment rates since twenty twenty. So,
Speaker 3: I mean, you've got to look at it. You could
Speaker 3: do it glass half full and you could do a
Speaker 3: glass half empty. Of course, Nikola Willis is going to
Speaker 3: do the glass half full because the buck stops with
Speaker 3: her with something like that. But yeah, you just can't
Speaker 3: need to take a little bit of a historical perspective
Speaker 3: on unemployment. My good friend Thomas Coglan will say this
Speaker 3: that the John Key era government, unemployment was above five
Speaker 3: percent for every single quarter they were in government bar
Speaker 3: the last one maybe two while Bill English was in government,
Speaker 3: and then everything switched. The government changed and it got
Speaker 3: over to labor and so unemployment has historically usually set
Speaker 3: around the level that we're seeing right now. We just
Speaker 3: had a period of time where it was historically quite low.
Speaker 3: I mean it's one point. With the Arderne years, we
Speaker 3: were getting it into the three percent, which is very
Speaker 3: we usually it's quite unheard of in New Zealand context.
Speaker 2: Could that be attributed to COVID as well though, us
Speaker 2: not being able to leave the country.
Speaker 3: You've got to look at the fact that there are
Speaker 3: so many people leave it. You've got to start asking
Speaker 3: some questions about that and if there's more people here.
Speaker 3: There was a lot of government subsidies at that time.
Speaker 3: Of course, there was the you know, if the government
Speaker 3: didn't do the wage subsidies scheme would have been a
Speaker 3: lot higher. Obviously, that's just how it works. So you know,
Speaker 3: I don't think it is as pure market led economy
Speaker 3: as the labor government would have had you believe at
Speaker 3: the time, there was a lot of government interventions. But still,
Speaker 3: you know, if people are just looking at the raw numbers,
Speaker 3: which I will say again the Nest did when they're
Speaker 3: in opposition, so you've got to compare apples to apples
Speaker 3: on these sorts of things.
Speaker 2: Speaking of the next election, the government set aside twenty
Speaker 2: five million dollars for a referendum on four year parliamentary terms.
Speaker 2: It's agreed in principle to holding one, but a final
Speaker 2: decision isn't expected until early next month. What are the
Speaker 2: vibes Jason like? How likely is this referendum? Do you
Speaker 2: think the reference.
Speaker 3: That's a bit of a toss up. I think that
Speaker 3: they've talked about it for a while and it may
Speaker 3: or may not be at the next election. I mean,
Speaker 3: the fact that they set funding aside for it is
Speaker 3: a pretty indicative nod to the fact that it will
Speaker 3: be happening. But I think the more interesting question is
Speaker 3: will where does the New Zealand public sit on this one?
Speaker 3: Because I think absolutely four year terms. I mean you
Speaker 3: look over at the UK, for example, five years I
Speaker 3: think is too long. Three years is too short because
Speaker 3: you have one year to kind of get yourself to
Speaker 3: your feet under the desk and figure it all out.
Speaker 3: You have a second year to be like, Okay, I
Speaker 3: know what's going on here, let's try and move something through.
Speaker 3: And then you've got the third year that is actually
Speaker 3: you're more or less campaigning for a lot of the time,
Speaker 3: and voters know that, and so what tends to happen
Speaker 3: is say, okay, we'll give you at least two terms,
Speaker 3: and then it gets to the point where too long.
Speaker 3: You know, it's a default six year term. So having
Speaker 3: it four years kind of cuts both ways because it
Speaker 3: means that voters will be less sympathetic to the argument
Speaker 3: to say that, oh, they've only had three years, we'll
Speaker 3: give them another go just to see how they go.
Speaker 3: Because four years you really should be starting to get
Speaker 3: something done. At the same time, it's not too short
Speaker 3: to say that, you know, nothing could get done if
Speaker 3: things did go really sideways. So I think you've got
Speaker 3: people like Chris Hipkins and Chris Luxon both saying that
Speaker 3: they want a four year term, and they've said that,
Speaker 3: you know, it will happen eventually. I'm sure some of
Speaker 3: the other candidates, like David Seymour, I do remember him
Speaker 3: being sympathetic to it. The outlies. Of course, Winston and
Speaker 3: Ti Party Marti. You never really know what they're going
Speaker 3: to say on an issue, so we'll wait to see
Speaker 3: what they say, or we'll do a bit more research
Speaker 3: into what they've already said. But I think the New
Speaker 3: Zealand public will be very sympathetic to it.
Speaker 2: And of course we can't go and speak about politics,
Speaker 2: especially this week without mentioning Trump's tariffs.
Speaker 1: How do you reckon our government has fared?
Speaker 3: Oh, there's nothing they can do really. You know, they
Speaker 3: got to ten percent and they were happy with that,
Speaker 3: and I understood why because if you're playing at a
Speaker 3: level playing field with other countries that are ten percent,
Speaker 3: that's fantastic. But if you're looking at other countries, say
Speaker 3: Vietnam or some there where they export you know, they
Speaker 3: export some dairy to the US, we're obviously going to
Speaker 3: have a better competitive advantage there if our tariffs are
Speaker 3: ten and there's our can't remember what they are, but
Speaker 3: I think they were up around the thirties. Essentially bringing
Speaker 3: us up to fifteen is a bit of a blow.
Speaker 3: The government needs to put on a bit of a
Speaker 3: brave face and show that they're trying to overturn these things.
Speaker 3: They can't take it lying down. But at the end
Speaker 3: of the day, you know, Todd with Play is not
Speaker 3: going to a bang on the Oval Office door and say,
Speaker 3: mister Trump, we've got our dairy exporters, we've got our
Speaker 3: wine exporters. Have you not considered them? And he's going
Speaker 3: to be like, oh, sorry, I didn't consider them. You know,
Speaker 3: it's just not going to happen New Zealand. Is we
Speaker 3: forget because we're here, that we are, we're seen on
Speaker 3: the global stage is nice, but fairly irrelevant. And so
Speaker 3: if they start ratcheting down New Zealand's tariffs, other countries
Speaker 3: are going to be asking some questions, other countries with
Speaker 3: much bigger economic footprints than ours.
Speaker 5: We will have to see what the impact of this
Speaker 5: latest development is, but I expect that some of those
Speaker 5: companies will probably now we double their efforts to develop
Speaker 5: and explore other markets. The government, for our part, will
Speaker 5: continue out of work to support those exporters with good information.
Speaker 5: We will continue our work to open up new markets
Speaker 5: around the world and to pursue good trade into those
Speaker 5: countries with whom we already have free trade arrangements. And
Speaker 5: we will continue to represent New Zealand's case for a
Speaker 5: better deal with the US.
Speaker 2: And while we're on the subject, what have the Greens
Speaker 2: into Padimori been up too lately.
Speaker 3: Oh, they've been playing opposition, you know, this is the
Speaker 3: things that they do. They try and get into the press.
Speaker 3: I think that Chloe Straubrick I was having a good
Speaker 3: chat with her the other night actually about how she
Speaker 3: sees the lay of the land right now, and she's
Speaker 3: pretty happy with how the Greens are going And why wouldn't.
Speaker 3: You're at twelve percent. You did your budget where you
Speaker 3: taxed everybody from Arthur to Martha the whole way through
Speaker 3: and or you proposed to and people like that. The
Speaker 3: elector like that, the Green Party base like that. So
Speaker 3: she's probably in quite good spirits Tea Party Marty as well.
Speaker 3: I mean they're coming up with the brunting up against
Speaker 3: Labor at the upcoming by election and that's going to
Speaker 3: be a real test for both parties the ultimate makeup
Speaker 3: of parliament that you know, we're not going to top
Speaker 3: all the government with the Tomackie mccod or by election,
Speaker 3: but it is an indicative look into how the sort
Speaker 3: of the Marti world New Zealand sees the opposition right now.
Speaker 3: You more of a Tea Party Marty person or more
Speaker 3: of a labor person. And you've got two exceptional candidates,
Speaker 3: I mean or any versus Peni Hennedy. It's going to
Speaker 3: be a blockbuster and I'm looking forward to it because
Speaker 3: of what it represents for the next year's election. So
Speaker 3: keep an eye Peel's keep two eyes peeled, I would
Speaker 3: say actual.
Speaker 2: And lastly, Jace, I know it's your last day in
Speaker 2: the Beehive today and got word around the office.
Speaker 1: I think as well have a listen to this.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 2: Jason.
Speaker 6: Look, I just want to say, mate, thank you so
Speaker 6: much for all the work in the press gallery. I've
Speaker 6: got to be honest, sometimes you're not my most favorite
Speaker 6: people on earth, but I have to say you've been
Speaker 6: absolutely stellar. You've been there nine years, You've done an
Speaker 6: exceptionally good job, You've learned all about politics, and I
Speaker 6: just think you I wish you're all the very best, mate,
Speaker 6: as I've spoken to you before, in the next part
Speaker 6: of your career, it's a really great move for you personally,
Speaker 6: and I think you're going to be awesome at it.
Speaker 6: So thanks what you've been doing covering politics, down in
Speaker 6: Wellington and getting the message out to the people about
Speaker 6: what's really going on.
Speaker 1: I appreciate what you work.
Speaker 3: Take care of mate, go well. I feel a bit
Speaker 3: bad about what I've said about the economy. Now, thank you, right,
Speaker 3: honorable Chris Mark Lutson. That was very nice, Savid. It's
Speaker 3: been a what heck of a ride over the last
Speaker 3: nine years.
Speaker 1: What's it like?
Speaker 2: I mean in terms of the faces that you see
Speaker 2: coming and going when you're in the bee Hive for
Speaker 2: that long, do you see the intricacies of different personalities
Speaker 2: and how different governments really take hold and see those changes?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the thing about politics, and this is
Speaker 3: going to sound cheesy, but bear with me. It is
Speaker 3: really about the people. And I can say genuinely with
Speaker 3: my hand on my heart that everybody here that I've
Speaker 3: caught to is here because they want to make a difference.
Speaker 3: So as a matter, if you're on the center left,
Speaker 3: the far left, to the center right, the further right,
Speaker 3: you know, everybody here is here because they genuinely they've
Speaker 3: been voted in by a constituent base that they really
Speaker 3: want to represent. And it's been one of the best
Speaker 3: things about being a gallery reporter. Especially more of a
Speaker 3: senior gallery reporter is you get to see the people
Speaker 3: behind the scenes and you get to talk to them
Speaker 3: and actually find out what makes them tick. And they're
Speaker 3: all really they get along. It's the thing like it
Speaker 3: was the other night. I'm sure they might be saying this.
Speaker 3: The two polar opposite people in Parliament would probably be
Speaker 3: Stephen Abel from the Greens and Simon Court from Act
Speaker 3: and the other night we're having some drinks in the
Speaker 3: gallery and the two of them would talking like old friends.
Speaker 3: And it's those sorts of things that I really love
Speaker 3: about this place is that there's a lot of theater.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of rgi bargie when the cameras are on,
Speaker 3: but when they're off, actually people get along, and in
Speaker 3: select committees and in various different places that we don't
Speaker 3: usually see, there's a lot of people working together to
Speaker 3: make this country really great. So after being here for
Speaker 3: so long, I mean, I've covered some crazy stories, some
Speaker 3: incredible times for New Zealand, but I'll remember the fact
Speaker 3: that at the end of the day, people are genuinely
Speaker 3: here to make this country a better place, and we're
Speaker 3: really well served by our politicians and the press gallery.
Speaker 3: Of course, what a great group of people, especially the
Speaker 3: newstalksb Office and the Herald.
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Jash, no problem, by friend. That's
Speaker 2: it for this episode of the Front Page. You can
Speaker 2: read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at
Speaker 2: enzedherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced
Speaker 2: by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also I
Speaker 2: Am Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in on
Speaker 2: Monday for another look behind the headlines.