1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:02,600 Speaker 1: Heller du for see Allen. As we know, in the 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: last few days, Ukraine has launched a surprise counter invasion 3 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: of Russia. Now Ukraine reckons it's in control of seventy 4 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: four Russian settlements in the Kursk region. The governor of 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: the Russian governor of the border area has declared a 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: region wide state of emergency. He's appealing to potent declare 7 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: a federal emergency situation. You McDonald is the editor of 8 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,240 Speaker 1: New Voice of Ukraine and is with us from Kiev. 9 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 2: Heywan, Hello. 10 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: Sounds like this was possible because Russia got a bit 11 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,159 Speaker 1: complacent and wasn't guarding its own border properly. Is that 12 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: what happened? 13 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 2: Possibly the Russia has not a lot of its main 14 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: troops into battle in the Dombas in the south and 15 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: east of Ukraine, and I don't think it was expecting 16 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 2: an attack across its border. 17 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: So the point of what Ukraine is trying to do 18 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: is essentially draw resources over to another area. Right, Therefore, 19 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: drawing resources out Russian resources out of Ukraine. Is it 20 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: going to work? 21 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 2: It seems to be, because there are reports that Russia 22 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 2: has moved some of its units away from its own 23 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 2: incursion into Ukrainian territory in the northeast of Ukraine near Kharkiv. 24 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,839 Speaker 2: Some of the units are there supposed to be heading 25 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: towards Kursk at the moment, as according to reports by 26 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 2: Russian million bloggers military bloggers. So this could be happening. 27 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: It could be part of the reason why the incursion 28 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,360 Speaker 2: was launched, but it also could be a way to 29 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 2: gain some leverage against Russia in future peace talks. If 30 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 2: there's going to be an exchange of land. 31 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 1: Right, is that a realistic possibility because the I mean, 32 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: this is what we're looking at with a potential Trump 33 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: presidency right there, he forces them to give up land 34 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: and sue for peace. Is this Zelensky preparing for that? 35 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: Yes, it would be because if the lines were frozen 36 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 2: as before, that would have left Russia in control of 37 00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: Ukrainian territory and Ukraine not with any Russian territory to control. 38 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 2: So this may be a way of Ukraine hedging that 39 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: against that by taking control of some Ukraine of Russian 40 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 2: territory in order to make it more difficult for Russia 41 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: simply to freeze the lines, take effective control fully of 42 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: Ukrainian territory and then later, if going by past experience, 43 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 2: Russia will restart the war and take more territory. 44 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: You and that would require, though the Ukrainians to stay 45 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: there for potentially months. Have they got the ability. 46 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: To do that. 47 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: Well? 48 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 2: The pocket in Kursk is still expanding as far as 49 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: we can tell from the reports coming out at least 50 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 2: from the Russian side, from independent military bloggers. What they 51 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 2: could be doing is taking as much territory as they can, 52 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 2: then digging in preparing defensive positions, and then they'll fall 53 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 2: back to those. And it seems it could be possible 54 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 2: that they would hold territory because the lines in Ukraine 55 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 2: have been pretty static for the last year and a 56 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 2: half or so, in fact, almost since the September of 57 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, when the last big Ukrainian offensive that 58 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 2: took territory and cardgiv Oblast happened. Since then the lines 59 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 2: have been pretty static, and if Ukraine can establish new 60 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 2: lines in Russia, it might be able to stay there 61 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 2: for a while. 62 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: Right, is there any risk here to Ukraine? I mean, 63 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: it was pointed out to me that part of the 64 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: risk that they now face is that if they are 65 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: affecting civilians with their attacks that might be used as 66 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: propaganda against them. 67 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: It undoubtedly will be used as propaganda against them, but 68 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 2: it's also good peeking or for Ukraine side to show 69 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 2: that it can still go on the offensive. It's taken 70 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 2: the initiative back from Russia basically at the moment, because 71 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 2: Russia was attacking all the time for most of this 72 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: year and it was seeming like Ukraine was losing, that 73 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 2: was in territory all the time. Now they've reversed that 74 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 2: narrative and they've shown that Russia is not able to 75 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 2: protect us on borders. They've made Putin's regime look weak, 76 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: and they've shown that they've shown the Russians that the 77 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: war can come to them, it can affect them. 78 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: Ewan, thank you very much for running us through. It's 79 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: good to talk to you again. Look after yourself. It's 80 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: Ian McDonald, the editor of New Voice of Ukraine. 81 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy, Allen Drive listen live to 82 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 83 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.