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Speaker 1: With me now though, Shane Soli Harbor Asset Management, Hay

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Speaker 1: Shane Hollo ever Shane. So how the capital markets reacted

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Speaker 1: to this Iran Israel conflict.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So Friday we saw the U S. Shiar market

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Speaker 2: in the U S and P five hundred, which is

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Speaker 2: the broad market, down about one point one percent. Since then,

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Speaker 2: we've since the clothes, I've seen another escalation of conflict,

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Speaker 2: a lot more bombardments of each other's, particularly the energy infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: So look, we're just watching to see what the US

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Speaker 2: market does when they open the futures, which is the

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Speaker 2: forward looking indicators, did actually slightly up, we don't know. Locally,

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Speaker 2: we saw the New Zealand dollar pretty stable against the

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Speaker 2: US dollar today about sixty point two eight cents. The

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Speaker 2: yielded the New Zion ten ure government bond years that

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Speaker 2: was up a little bit just under ten basis points

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Speaker 2: back to four point sixty four percent. Maybe that's about

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Speaker 2: people thinking about invation on the back of higher oil prices.

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Speaker 2: And actually the New Zealand Shire market was up one

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Speaker 2: percent today and that was led by strength and some

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Speaker 2: of their growth stocks utilities and infrastructure's used so prohibit

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Speaker 2: of a surprise for some people on that one.

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Speaker 1: What do you reckon is the key risks from the

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Speaker 1: conflict to economies and markets from here on in.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, it's tough to know how this is going

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Speaker 2: to turn out. Clearly, you know, some real human tragedy here,

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Speaker 2: we've got to go into that. But for the global

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Speaker 2: economies and capital markets, probably the biggest risk is that

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Speaker 2: Iran or it's our ways disrupt the slate straits of homes.

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Speaker 2: That's with is a lot of oil comes through the

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Speaker 2: conflict widens and we actually see some inflation go up

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Speaker 2: on the back of it. Since we've had this conflict

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Speaker 2: checkoff with Texas intermedio ail proces, it's the main one

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Speaker 2: of the reference points for oil going to just under

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Speaker 2: seventy three dollars use a barrel, that's twelve up in

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Speaker 2: a week, So tough one for us in New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: The risk is a lot of that oil out of

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Speaker 2: our own gost to China, and if there's a problem

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Speaker 2: there then it slows the Chinese economy down, slows our

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Speaker 2: economy down, and just higher energy prices not good for

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Speaker 2: inflation in this part of the world.

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Speaker 3: Shane, what do you make of this takeover offer? For

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Speaker 3: tourism holdings.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so interesting. One we had at the set of

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Speaker 2: non binding offer for and holdings is the Candadown operator

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Speaker 2: from a group called BGH Capital that's a private equity

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Speaker 2: firm and back for by the Australian Trichet family who

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Speaker 2: had backed some Australian assets and to tourism holdings a

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Speaker 2: few years ago. The bid two dollars thirty. That's fifty

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Speaker 2: seven percent above Friday's Clothes at one forty six. Pretty healthy.

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Speaker 2: They've got the backing of Truche that True Schase Holders

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Speaker 2: holders and also acs AMD and Wilson Hesy Management, So

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Speaker 2: BGH has got about a twenty percent stake. Now there's

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Speaker 2: no studency on the transaction. Uh, it's subject to due

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Speaker 2: diligence and funding board recommendations. But BGH they've got a

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Speaker 2: history of being pretty patient on these things. So we

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Speaker 2: saw about tourism holding sep Ice closed at two dollars

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Speaker 2: thirty today. A little bit to play out here here

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Speaker 2: that I think, I think we've got somewhere to go.

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Speaker 2: But you know, that's a bit of a reminder that

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Speaker 2: parts of our sheer market are pretty attractive to overseas investors.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Sean, Hey, thanks very much, it's good to talk

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Speaker 3: to you. Appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: Mate.

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Speaker 3: That Shane solely harbor Asset Management.

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