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Speaker 1: Here we go for the final time this year back Likecally,

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Speaker 1: of course oc Arcata is coming most likely fifty points,

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Speaker 1: but the commentary and the monetary policy statements, you're real gold.

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Speaker 1: Of course, Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Redel's back with us. Michael,

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Speaker 1: very good morning to you, Mike.

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Speaker 2: Fifty oh probably, but if they went seventy five, it

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Speaker 2: certainly wouldn't surprise me. I think it's a reasonable case

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Speaker 2: and making larger to that good.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad somebody else is saying that, apart from Greg Smith.

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Speaker 1: At the moment, what's neutral to you? And how quickly

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Speaker 1: do we get there?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Reserve banks fewer things somewhere

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Speaker 2: three two and a half and three is probably the

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Speaker 2: best guess. At the moment, we won't know. We genuinely

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Speaker 2: won't go in class we've got there and seeing what

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Speaker 2: the inflationary consequences are. But you know, if that's the

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Speaker 2: best guess of the number, I think we'll be there

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Speaker 2: by July August next year.

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Speaker 1: Do do you have any weight on this? We take

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Speaker 1: a very long summer recess off and this is probably

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Speaker 1: not a good thing for the Reserve Bank. And yes

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Speaker 1: they can hold an emergency meeting, but they don't, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything in that or not.

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Speaker 2: I think at the margin it might influence things a little.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's a bad choice on their part. They

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Speaker 2: should have more even the space their meetings through the year.

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Speaker 2: But much the biggest influence will just be that inflection

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Speaker 2: is turning now decisively, coming down even the sort of

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Speaker 2: core inflectionment measures that don't get so much attention, and

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Speaker 2: I think the Bank will be drawing attention to that

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Speaker 2: themselves today whether they go fifty or seventy five. And

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Speaker 2: so the fact that they're not coming back till February

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Speaker 2: may just make them a little more willing to make

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Speaker 2: a bigger call.

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Speaker 1: Is there any disconnect that you're seeing in the economy?

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Speaker 1: Q four for some anyway is not looking like maybe

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Speaker 1: some thought it would once the cuts started. In other words,

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Speaker 1: the fizz isn't there? Is that a problem?

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Speaker 2: I mean, lags are longer than that, So you wouldn't

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Speaker 2: expect a drop from the ocr to have made observable

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Speaker 2: difference to actually etonolic developments that quickly. Yes, it will

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Speaker 2: come through in the confidence measures, and some of them

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Speaker 2: have been a bit stronger, others aren't you Purchasing managers

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Speaker 2: and DEXes, which are really quite important actually serving terms

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Speaker 2: about what they're doing are still very very weak. But

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Speaker 2: again it's not surprising. Rates were high for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Legs take a long time to work. We're still going

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Speaker 2: to see more fiscal consolidation next year, so life's not

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Speaker 2: going to be easy for anyone in the economy.

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Speaker 1: Proberbly Well, I was going to say, one of the

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Speaker 1: bank reports I read the other day said one percent

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Speaker 1: growth next year? Is that what you see?

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Speaker 2: Ish? Well? I mean, it's quite plausible. There's always a

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Speaker 2: big margin to there there and you know what happens

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Speaker 2: in the rest of the world. But yeah, any recovery

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Speaker 2: looks like pretty gretual.

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Speaker 1: And how would you describe that? Is that a landing

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Speaker 1: of softish nature, a crash, a what is it?

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Speaker 2: But I don't think it's either of those. It's sort

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Speaker 2: of mid range. You know, we've been very wik economics

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Speaker 2: from how two three years. This causses on the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate as it goes to five and a half percent.

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Speaker 2: Obviously that's way better than some of the peaks we've

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Speaker 2: had in the past. It's still tough for job seekers,

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Speaker 2: it's a genuine recession, all right.

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Speaker 1: I always appreciate your expertise, Michael Roddell, former Reserve Bank economist.

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Speaker 2: Of course.

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