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Speaker 1: The next topic we're talking about is slightly related to that.

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Speaker 1: A former Rossie Home Affairs secretary is calling for New

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Speaker 1: Zealand to dump our nuclear free policy and sign up

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Speaker 1: to ORCUS. Michael Pazzullo says the chances of the conflict

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Speaker 1: with China are high enough that New Zealand and Australia

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Speaker 1: should be working together to create a combined military force

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Speaker 1: for our shared territorial defense. Michael Pezzulo is the former

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Speaker 1: Australian Home Affairs Secretary. He's with me this evening.

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Speaker 2: Michael, good evening, Oh good afternoon from here, and good

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Speaker 2: evening to you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you. Why do you need Why do we need

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Speaker 1: to be in ORCUS? Why does New Zealand need to

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Speaker 1: be in.

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Speaker 2: My concern is less about UCUS, so I'll quickly jump

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Speaker 2: to that. It's really about having an integrated approach to

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Speaker 2: our common defense. A lot of the assumptions, both in

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Speaker 2: Australia and I dare say in New Zealand regarding our

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Speaker 2: defense are probably several decades old, and in this highly

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Speaker 2: disrupted world, everything is changing at such a great rate

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Speaker 2: that we just need to re examine everything. I would

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Speaker 2: start with a common defense area, the defense of Australia

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Speaker 2: and New Zealand as the anzac area, if you like,

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Speaker 2: and then from that would flow certain consequences and implications,

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Speaker 2: including the structure of our militaries, our command and control arrangements,

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Speaker 2: and how God forbid, if it came to it, how

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Speaker 2: we would fight a war to defend ourselves.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't it effectively make us the little cousin, you know,

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Speaker 1: the subordinate to your defense forces.

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Speaker 2: Well, if you want to be in charge, I suppose

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Speaker 2: you could flip it the other way. But I mean

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Speaker 2: I put it to I put it to my very

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Speaker 2: many friends in New Zealand. I had so many fond

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Speaker 2: memories of professional associations over four decades in government service.

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Speaker 2: I put this privately. I'm now a retired pension and

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Speaker 2: so I'll put it to your listeners publicly. The defense

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Speaker 2: of New Zealand and this might be a controversial statement,

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Speaker 2: but you know, we've got free thinking, hopefully, and we

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Speaker 2: can debate these things. I would contend starts in the

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Speaker 2: Indian Ocean. In other words, the defense of New Zealand

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Speaker 2: starts at the outer edge of the Australian Territorial Barrier,

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Speaker 2: which are our Indian Ocean territories, the Cocos Islands, Christmas Island,

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Speaker 2: the Northern Australia, and across the defensive barrier that we

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Speaker 2: would erect across the North, across the North, including into

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Speaker 2: the Coral Sea. There's a very low probability of this occurring.

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Speaker 2: I said in the podcast that might have triggered the

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Speaker 2: interest that's caused this interview, or give them rise to

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Speaker 2: this interview that I think the chances of a military

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Speaker 2: conflict principally between the US and China is around ten

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Speaker 2: to twenty percent, which the good news is the chance

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Speaker 2: of peace and the chance of there not being a

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Speaker 2: conflict is obviously eighty to ninety percent, which is good news.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is, of course, ten to twenty percent

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Speaker 2: probability of something that you know is disastrous and catastrophically

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Speaker 2: consequential is something you should do something about.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any I've been talking to a lot

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Speaker 1: of people lately about Taiwan and the potential for China

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Speaker 1: to do a blockade or invade, and that would be

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Speaker 1: the match, that's the whole the fire. Do you have

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Speaker 1: any sense of when this might be happening. I mean

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Speaker 1: a lot of people speculate about it. But do you,

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Speaker 1: I mean, how soon do you think that that could

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Speaker 1: be on the horizon.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, I'll be very cautious and discreet as I

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Speaker 2: am in Australian media about talking about anything that might

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Speaker 2: allude to classified matters that I learned in my government service,

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Speaker 2: which came to an end about eighteen months ago. But

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Speaker 2: just going off the public record, we have quite a

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Speaker 2: stark data point from the former head of the CIA,

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Speaker 2: William Burns, who was appointed by President Biden now no

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Speaker 2: longer an office obviously in February twenty three, so that's

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Speaker 2: two years and a little bit ago. He gave a

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Speaker 2: very interesting speech, I think from a memory, was at

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Speaker 2: Georgetown University. So this is the head of the CIA.

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Speaker 2: I've heard and seen many public comments by CIA directors

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Speaker 2: over the years. They typically are very guarded and they

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Speaker 2: say things like, where we have some conjecture, we have

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Speaker 2: an estimates, we have an assessment. Bill Burns, who is

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Speaker 2: a very moderate person, very careful, thoughtful person, said two

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Speaker 2: years ago, the CIA knows as quote and I'm paraphrasing,

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Speaker 2: but it's close enough, knows as a matter of intelligence

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Speaker 2: that President she has given directions to his military to

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Speaker 2: at least have the option available to the Chinese leadership

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Speaker 2: to launch a military operation to annexed Taiwan from February

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Speaker 2: twenty seven onwards. So, in other words, less than two

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Speaker 2: years away. Burns was at state. Was it pains to

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Speaker 2: say that no decision had been taken at that point

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Speaker 2: that was two years ago, and that it was really

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Speaker 2: about ensuring that the military is ready. But that alone

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Speaker 2: is stark enough and concerning enough that they're at least

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Speaker 2: giving themselves the option if they can't achieve a resolution

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Speaker 2: of this matter to their satisfaction, otherwise of giving themselves

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Speaker 2: the option of violence, and that itself is concerning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, fascinating too, Michael, thank you very much for coming

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Speaker 1: on the show. That's Michael Pasula, Australian Homo Fairs Secretary.

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Speaker 2: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio