1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: Gielda. 2 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:18,119 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The Mood 4 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 2: of the Boardroom is back today for its twenty second year. 5 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: The annual survey of the country's top CEOs and business 6 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: leaders has seen a broad tick of approval for the 7 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 2: Coalition government, with strong support for Christopher Luxen and Nikola 8 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: Willis and their economic plan. But they want to see 9 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: the government be bolder and set out their vision for 10 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: New Zealand's future, and that could include tackling some of 11 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 2: the most contentious economic issues in our country. Today on 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: the front page ends at Herald, Business editorial director fran 13 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: O'Sullivan is with us to digest the thoughts of our 14 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: top business leaders. Fran Can you just remind us what 15 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: Mood of the Boardroom actually is? 16 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: Good question, Chelsea. I mean, essentially, what it is is 17 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:18,679 Speaker 1: a barometer of business sentiment and mood very much at 18 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: the top end of town. A great deal of the 19 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:26,320 Speaker 1: CEOs who comprise the top twenty companies of the ZX 20 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: and more, plus a spattering of chairs. And don't forget 21 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of women at the top 22 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: of New Zealand major companies yet so I've tended to 23 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: do gender balance over the years by reaching out to 24 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: prominent female chairs as well. 25 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: So the twenty twenty four edition is out today. It 26 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 2: would it be fair to say that people are generally 27 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 2: quite positive about this government. 28 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, they're quite positive about the government and more particularly 29 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: they're quite positive about the economy. I mean, essentially there 30 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: are lingering concerns about a range of issues, still got 31 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: some receptinary effects occurring, but essentially the confidence is where 32 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: it was really back in the heyday of Bill English 33 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: and we haven't seen this for a while. And so 34 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: I think what you've seen from this government is it 35 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 1: has been very deliberate about what it's doing. It does 36 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: have confidence in the key members of the cabinet, particularly 37 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: when it comes to those that are across the economy 38 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: and issues which are important to business. So there's a 39 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: good balance there. But it's also reached the stage where 40 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: essentially business wants the government to pivot and focus on 41 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: the road ahead and not looking through the rearview mirror. 42 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: And I guess when you think about it, as it's 43 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: been coined, much of the last almost year has been 44 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: about the Great unwind. It's been about replacing policies and 45 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: projects that its predecessors had done and starting to put 46 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: in place its own agenda. But in essence, senior Business 47 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: would like the government and ministers really to focus on 48 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: the future and start to think about the growth agenda 49 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: rather than getting the platform for growth. 50 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: Well, I was about to say, actually, while the business 51 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 2: leaders are happy with the government, I see that they 52 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: also do want to see more of that bold ambition 53 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 2: rather than just do it undoing Labour's plans and complaining 54 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 2: about what they've inherited and such. How could that ambition 55 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 2: come to fruition do you think? 56 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: I mean, there's plenty of advocacy from business about what 57 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: they'd like to see about the major issues facing New 58 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 1: Zealand and some steps that could be taken. But essentially 59 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: it's the government been very focused now on what are 60 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: those agender items that really will drive the economy and 61 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: will particularly inspire investment as well. 62 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 2: In their ratings of the cabinet, Ericus Stanford has come 63 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 2: out on top, the only minister with a rating of four. 64 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 2: Are you surprised by that? 65 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 3: Now? 66 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 1: I'm not bear in mind this has actually been quite 67 00:03:56,480 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 1: a difficult period for ministers and they have been winding 68 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: much of their predecessor's policies and so, for instance, her 69 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: focus on back to basics resonates with business that are 70 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: looking for people to come out of the education system, 71 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: raring to go and with the right competencies to be 72 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 1: able to thrive. I mean, there's been quite a lot 73 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 1: of concern about young talented New Zealanders leaving New Zealand 74 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: and going elsewhere in the world, and that will continue, 75 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: but really the opportunity to have well qualified young people 76 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,919 Speaker 1: working here is also pretty important. 77 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 3: We used to be one of the best countries in 78 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 3: the world when it came to reading and writing. I 79 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 3: mean we were in the top ten and piece and 80 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 3: where were the envy of the world. But on the 81 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: last twenty or thirty years things have taken a turn 82 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 3: for the worse and we've seen literacy rates dropping year 83 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 3: on year on year and nothing really has changed. 84 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 1: Working down the cabinet list, you then come to Simeon Brown, 85 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: who's also got a range of major portfolios. He's got transport, 86 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: you know, that includes being Minister for Auckland, it includes 87 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: energy and he's one of Christopher Luxen's kitchen cabinets, so 88 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: he's pretty important. And then you come down a step 89 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 1: to both Chris Bishop and Nichola Willis, and these are 90 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: just you know, these are ratings really at the margin 91 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: of era for these top three, they're both rated equal. 92 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: And you know, Nikola Willis has got a tough job 93 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: there and she's not only got to keep fiscal discipline there, 94 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: but she's also got to change public sector reforms. She's 95 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 1: going to do a social investment, which is pretty important 96 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 1: when you look at the transformation of the economy and 97 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: helping young people be focused. So that's major. And Chris 98 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: Bishop is a cross a range of things as well. 99 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 1: I mean he's commonly known for the infrastructure portfolio, but 100 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: he's also got housing, he's got RMA reform. When you 101 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: go down a bump to Judith Collins and again she's 102 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: got seven major portfolios. And then the Prime Minister himself 103 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: again pretty much equal with Judith Collins. And the Prime 104 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: Minister is really interesting and he doesn't top the cabinet 105 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: pack in that respect, but he's so critical to the 106 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: performance of this particular administration and when you look at it, 107 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: where CEOs rate him strongly is how he's kept the 108 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: cabinet focused on delivery, and so if you're looking at 109 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: the KPIs that he would have on his plate, he's 110 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: coming in at four point three out of five and 111 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: more particularly also some forty odd percent forty three percent 112 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: marking him as very impressive on this measure. So you 113 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: can see he's raptor's hands around his cabinet. He's focused 114 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: on deliverables, but he's also got a range of other 115 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 1: factors he has to deal with. He has to leverage 116 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: his brand for New Zealand and we've seen that with 117 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,599 Speaker 1: the way he's taken missions offshore with business. But he's 118 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: also got to keep the coalition together and he's not 119 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: writing too bad on that. But the one weakness he 120 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: still has, and he acknowledges this is his own political performance, 121 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: and he will just say, he's, hey, you give me 122 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: a break. I've just been in politics three years and 123 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: you know, just over three years, nearly four years, and 124 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: he became you know, from ZIP to within three years 125 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: he was PM and he had melded together a quite 126 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: unified caucus in that time. 127 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: Barbara Edmunds has taken over as Labour's finance spokesperson this year. 128 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 2: She's still only a few months into the job. But 129 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 2: has she resonated with the financial sector yet. 130 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, she's resonating with those who have had a chance 131 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: to meet her. And bear in mind, I mean she's 132 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: only been in this role since February, I believe, and 133 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: she's pretty pragmatic. Before she was herself a cabinet minister 134 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: and she was Minister of Revenue. Before she was appointed 135 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: to that, she did chair the far and it's an 136 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: expenditure committee in Parliament, so she was well known to 137 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: both sides of Parliament. But more particularly she also when 138 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: she was a seconde from the Inland Revenue she worked 139 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: for Judith Collins when Judith was a Revenue minister, so 140 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: you know she's highly respected. She got on well in 141 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: her office. She also got on well in Michael Woodhouse's 142 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: office and he was the immediate predecessor in Revenue and 143 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: then of course she switched to labour side and then 144 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: became an MP. I mean, there's a great quote here 145 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 1: that I like, which has come from a banking sector 146 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: head and it basically says Barbara Edmonds is an absolute 147 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: class act. She possesses an equal balance of smarts and empathy. 148 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: She will be forced to sell their tax reform idealism 149 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 1: and could be completely distracted by that. But she knows 150 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: tax inside out and sroduce her skills to being pragmatism 151 00:08:55,480 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 1: to the discussion rather than sell an ideological fantasy very well. 152 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,839 Speaker 1: But one of the interesting things in this survey is 153 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: that the ground does appear to be shifting under the 154 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: issue of capital gains taxes and also changes, for instance, 155 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: to the superannuation settings. That parting shot from the Treasury 156 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: Secretary Carolyn McLeish, who's gone back to Australia to head 157 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 1: up the Audit office there. She basically said, we have 158 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 1: structural reform issues and pointed to these areas and a 159 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: large number of CEOs in this report agree. More than 160 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: seventy percent in fact, are on song with that, and 161 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,839 Speaker 1: those who commented for that part that particular question, more 162 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: than fifty percent came up with CGT as an option. 163 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 1: And we've got people like Mainfreight CEO Don Braid, and 164 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 1: he was essentially saying, to this question, and it is 165 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 1: a big question for this government. He was basically saying 166 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: that some of the things that could be considered will 167 00:09:55,679 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: be capital gains tax, public private partnerships, lessons for Australian 168 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: super and its success, and these wouldn't go amiss. I mean, 169 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: government's a bit tunnel vision on this one, I think, 170 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: and we saw that recently with the swipe at Antonia Watson, 171 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: the CEO of A and Z, who made some comments 172 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: suggesting CGT should be looked at. And so it's actually 173 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: a lot of commonality out there in business. And I 174 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: guess what people forget is a lot of these business 175 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: people are running companies that are also active in other 176 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: parts of the globe which do have capital gains tax, 177 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: do have different superannuation settings. This is not foreign to them. 178 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: So all those angsteam from the OECD and IOMF is 179 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: kind of on a ground where it's a bit fertile 180 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: at the moment. However, there are others who say that yes, 181 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: economically it makes sense, but politically it's difficult. And Deloitte 182 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: chair Thomas Pippos, who's written a lengthy analysis in the report, 183 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: basically says it's a red herring and to his view, 184 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: the big issue was Treasury hadn't had the visibility it 185 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 1: should have had during this last period. In other words, 186 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:08,679 Speaker 1: parting shots on the way out perhaps should have been 187 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: made more vocally earlier. 188 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 2: Well, Nicola Willis lashed out at suggestions of a capital 189 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: gains tax just the other week. Hey, And the survey, 190 00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 2: like you said, show's opinion is shifting on CGT and 191 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:35,319 Speaker 2: on implementing a more efficient superannuation scheme like that of Australia. 192 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: Is the government actually likely to look at either of 193 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 2: those issues anytime soon? 194 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: Well, it would have to quite a big segue from 195 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: where they are now. But you know, as this survey 196 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: the thrust of us, it is time to pivot. They're 197 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: not going to want to do this in a hurry though, 198 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: because this is one of the areas that labor is 199 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 1: looking at, and they'll be quite hopeful at the next 200 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: election that Labor will go hard on wealth and capital 201 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: games taxes and the government will be National will be 202 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: able to fight against that. I mean, already you've had 203 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: the lines about you know, more taking more money out 204 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 1: of people's pockets in New Zealand, which actually isn't really 205 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 1: the case. It only happens when you sell. But you know, 206 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 1: there's still got to be a debate about how we 207 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: bridge the structural deficit. National would hope that it could 208 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: grow the way out of these issues and then get 209 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 1: more tax revenue that way through more successful companies. But 210 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: you know, it's still quite a difficult task. But I 211 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: think where national has to be a little bit careful 212 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,839 Speaker 1: is you know, if there is openness to thinking about 213 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,560 Speaker 1: and talking about potential remedies for some of the big 214 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: issues that face the economy, that they don't close off 215 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: those options too soon. One of the things coming through 216 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: is the need to see a little bit of a 217 00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: shift in tone from senior ministers and how they deal 218 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: with business. A number of people commented about the way 219 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: the Kiwi railboard was slapped down on the Board of 220 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: Health New Zealand in quite brutal ways actually, and you 221 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: know it doesn't resonate well, particularly when you're trying to 222 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: attract other you know, well healed and because you have 223 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:17,680 Speaker 1: to be to go into these roles because they don't 224 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 1: pay very much, you know, to get on well qualified 225 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: people to come and take part in governing major Crown 226 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: entities and soees. So business would like to see a 227 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: shift in tone there. 228 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 2: There are still some economic challenges in the community, hey, 229 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 2: particularly around electricity prices. That's seeing increased bills and even 230 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 2: forced some businesses to close that issue has leaders worried 231 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 2: the most, followed by the US China tentions and international 232 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 2: cyber attacks. How seriously should the government be taking these 233 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 2: power price worries? 234 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: Well, I think the more interesting one in the report, 235 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 1: and we've done a three page splash on it, is 236 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: probably when you drill down and you look at the 237 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: issue of energy security. These energy prices have had an effect, 238 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: and quite clearly we've seen Winston pull out of its 239 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: mill and we've seen a degree of de industrialization happening. 240 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: It's a mixture of issues there that have contributed to that, 241 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: but I think the more interesting one is there isn't 242 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: much confidence that we actually have sufficient security of supply 243 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: to deal with some fairly major demand issues coming up. 244 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: I mean, we're having the switch to utilize mevs, we're 245 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: having the switch to more AI, we're having more data 246 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,239 Speaker 1: centers and all of this is a big drawer on electricity. 247 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: So talk to government ministers. They will take the view 248 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: that now you've got a long term contract twenty year 249 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: contract with Typoint for instance, that gives some certainty to 250 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: the market. In other words, there's not going to be 251 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: a huge chunk of power come back on to the 252 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 1: market if, for instance, they couldn't get a deal on ty. 253 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: But also we've seen the fact that they're not going 254 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: to go ahead with the Onslow project in the South Island. 255 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: So the government's view is this of certainty, but coming 256 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: through from businesses, actually the government's got to get a 257 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: lot more organized on this. You know, people want to 258 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: have some certainty. Obviously there has to be a big 259 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: range of renewable projects consented and built, and the government 260 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: has clearing the wave for that with fast Track, but 261 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: there's still issues. Some people are concerned about whether you 262 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: know the structure of the Gen Taylor's as to whether 263 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: they should split out their generating and lines capacity. So 264 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: there's a big conversation that still needs to occur. 265 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 2: We're also a little over a month away from the 266 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 2: US election. John Keys come out saying this week that 267 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 2: Donald Trump would be better for the economy. What do 268 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 2: our CEOs think? 269 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: Ah. I think where John Key is coming from is 270 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: he's better for the US economy and that may flow 271 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: out to here. I think there is considerable concern here 272 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: about you know, Donald Trump essentially putting up barriers when 273 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: it comes to trade, and for instance, we have some 274 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: big exporters of our own into the United States these days, 275 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: and he's looking to put a ten percent tarif on 276 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: and that would be pretty damaging here if that occurred. 277 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: And don't forget the United States is now our second 278 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: largest trading partner. It's overtaken Australia in the last year 279 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: or so, so you know that's a concern. It's a 280 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: concern that he's putting America first outlook could have an 281 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: effect here, but it's early days. 282 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 3: But the view out. 283 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: Of the bordroom is this time around is pretty solidly 284 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: that they would prefer Krmela Harris to be the next 285 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: president of the United States, and partially because it would 286 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: mean a continuation of current settings. 287 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: Fran it's been a difficult few years for the economy. 288 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 2: Are we confident we've turned the corner or are the 289 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 2: challenges set to continue? 290 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: Do you think, Oh, there's definitely challenges. But I think 291 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: there's two factors playing into this. The fact that the 292 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: government has kept a strong focus on the fiscal discipline 293 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:12,120 Speaker 1: and that's rated highly by our CEOs. But also when 294 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: we've seen the Reserve Bank starting to go down the 295 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: interest rate lowering trail and obviously next week expectations that 296 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: there will be another lowering, and I think if they 297 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 1: dropped it by two rather than one metric, it would 298 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: be a great fillip to confidence. That's what business is 299 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 1: looking for. Dropping the OCR finally has played into confidence, 300 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: but the management of the OCR and interest rate levels 301 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: still are major issues for business. So you know, no 302 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: one would want to see it to go the other way. 303 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: But I do think what we have seen is, you know, 304 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: it's hard to keep animal spirits down for too long, 305 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: and New Zealand has been pretty resilient over the years, 306 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: and we've seen that with issues like how we weathered 307 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: the GFC, how we dealt with COVID, how we dealt 308 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: with the earthquakes and so on. You know, that comes 309 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 1: a point where we've just got to get on and 310 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: make the best of it. And I think you're seeing 311 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 1: that in confidence surveys right across the board at this moment. 312 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,679 Speaker 1: One of the questions we asked was was it a 313 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: hard landing or a soft landing. People were confident inflation 314 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 1: had passed its peak, but there was also a bit 315 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: of pessimism there in the sense that whether it would 316 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,199 Speaker 1: be a hard or a soft landing. Most people sixty 317 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: odd three percent said the RBN said had not managed 318 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: to achieve a soft landing. One or two said up 319 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: more like a hard thud. But the point being is, 320 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 1: you know, people turned the corner in their own sentiment 321 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: and it's now up to everybody to move forward. 322 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, FRAN. That said, for this episode 323 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 2: of the Front Page, you can read more about today's 324 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: stories and extensive news Coveraget and zat Harold Doz. The 325 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 2: Front Page is produced by Ethan Siles with sound engineer 326 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 2: Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page 327 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 2: on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune 328 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 2: in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.