1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Hither do for see Pea Lewis our Asia business correspondence 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: with me. Now Hello Peter, Hello head. So how is 3 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: China a beneficiary of what's going on between Trump and Putin? Well, 4 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: first of all, the most obvious way is that at 5 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: the moment, Russia's avoided secondary sanctions on all of its 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: oil exports. You remember that before this summit with Putin, 7 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:28,639 Speaker 1: Trump was vary extreme tariffs on Russia if it didn't 8 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: agree to a cease fire. When it didn't agree to 9 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: a cease fire, But yet once again, Trump backs down 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: and moved away from that position. So that sort of 11 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: frees up China to carry on importing oil from Russia 12 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: and any other products it's that it needs in fact. 13 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: And the second thing it does is it gives China 14 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: time because this is going to go on for a while. 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: There's going to be negotiations, and it's clear from the 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: way things are going at the moment, this is not 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: going to be resolved very quickly. And what China wants 18 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: is it has no intention of going back to where 19 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:10,279 Speaker 1: things were before Donald Trump got elected in any trade 20 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,440 Speaker 1: deal that it negotiates with the US. On the contrary, 21 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: what it wants to do is to create a new 22 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: world trading order with itself at the center of it. 23 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: And in particular, it wants to make itself completely self sufficient. 24 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: It doesn't want to have to rely on the US 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: for anything. It doesn't want to have to rely on 26 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: the US for its technology and its semiconductors. It doesn't 27 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 1: want to have to rely on the its commodities, any 28 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: of its farm products. It really wants to be totally 29 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: self sufficient. And this is probably the number one sort 30 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: of economic aim of President j Jing Ping at the 31 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: moment now has been working on that for a while. 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: China has been preparing for this eventuality of a second 33 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: Trump presidency and the possibility of a trade war for years, 34 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: and it is made steps to remove that dependency now 35 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: with exports far more to countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America, 36 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,399 Speaker 1: and the Middle East compared with the growth that it's 37 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: seeing in its US markets. So these markets are becoming 38 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: much more important to China and will continue to be 39 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 1: important going forward. They're going to take up much more 40 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: of China's trade, and as a result, China is really 41 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: creating this trading system that just cuts out the US altogether, 42 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: and it will get on with it with these other countries. 43 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: But it needs time to do that, and this outcome 44 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: at the moment from the summit booting gives China more 45 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: time to move forward with that plan. And how things 46 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 1: going with India not well. This extraordinary bust up between 47 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: Trump and lou Rendra Modi, which is seems to continue 48 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 1: to be continuing. There's no sign at all that they're 49 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: going to back down. We had Scott Vessence and Peter 50 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: Navarro basically saying that India was benefiting and its big 51 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: families were benefiting from buying Russian oil and that it 52 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: was damaging cooperation between the two countries and furthering Russiamodi 53 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: has got no intention of backing down his reaching out 54 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: towards both in both China and Russia to try and 55 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: develop more friendly relationships. Undromodi will be in Beijing at 56 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: the end of next week. That's his first visit to 57 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: Beijing in about seven years. His invited Vladimir Putin also 58 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: to come and visit him in New Delhi. And so 59 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: what this is doing is it's sort of driving India 60 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: closer to China in particular. However, I think there's a 61 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: limit as to how far that's going to go because 62 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: I don't think that India and China are really going 63 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: to be close friends. They have decades of animosity between them. 64 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: They've been close to having almost outright war in the 65 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: Himalayas over their disputed borders several times. India doesn't trust 66 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: China and China doesn't trust India either. And also there's 67 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: the added problem that Pakistan is a close ally of India. 68 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: India's providing money and aid and economic developments of the 69 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: Delta Vode initiative to help Pakistan's economy. It provides it 70 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: with arms and weapons, and China has made it clear 71 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: that it wants to have relationships with both Pakistan and India. 72 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: But I don't think India is really going to be 73 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: too enamored with that. Yeah, I can see there's a 74 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: lot of problems there, a lot of wrinkles to dine 75 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: out had Peter, Thank you as always, we'll talk to 76 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: you next week. Look after yourself. Peter lewis Asia Business Correspondent. 77 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: For more from Hither Duplassy Alan Drive, listen live to 78 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 79 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.