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Speaker 1: It turns out that Health New Zealand's books aren't quite

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Speaker 1: as bad as we thought, but the numbers are still

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Speaker 1: pretty terrible. The projected deficit for the twenty four to

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Speaker 1: twenty five financial year has reduced from one point seven

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Speaker 1: billion to one point one billion. In October, they said

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Speaker 1: it'd be one point seven. Now they're saying it'll be

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Speaker 1: one point one. The agency has extended its cost cutting

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Speaker 1: regime by another year to twenty twenty seven, when it's

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Speaker 1: expected to return to surpus. Rob Campbell is the former

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Speaker 1: Health and z chaeries with us this morning. Rob, Good morning,

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Speaker 1: all real a right, good to have you on the show. Hey,

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Speaker 1: what are you reading into this? I mean, how can

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Speaker 1: they not get the numbers right? Two months ago we

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Speaker 1: were told that there would be they would need five

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Speaker 1: hundred million extra than they are actually going to need.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty deatic, isn't it. But you've got to

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Speaker 2: see the history. I'm afraid to be a bit boring this.

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Speaker 2: It's not an issue that was created by Tafatu Wara.

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Speaker 2: It's an issue that drags over from the previous arrangements

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Speaker 2: between the district Health Boards and the Ministry of Health

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Speaker 2: and in some ways, it's part of putting it right.

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Speaker 1: How much more do we need to spend to get

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Speaker 1: it right? I mean, how much is going to be

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Speaker 1: enough in health when we're spending thirty billion a year.

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Speaker 2: Well, the truth is no one knows the answer to

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Speaker 2: that question. But what we do know is a number

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Speaker 2: of things. First, there are some things like the big

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Speaker 2: one is the holiday pay issue, which has to be

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Speaker 2: done because it's a legal requirement. No one quite new

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Speaker 2: and probably still does know exactly what the cost impact

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Speaker 2: of that is, but when it is finally ascertained, it's

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Speaker 2: a number that has to be found. Secondly, there are

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Speaker 2: some increases which derive from basic requirements, again legal ones

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Speaker 2: such as pay equity and other pay type requirements, which

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Speaker 2: again have to be met and can be projected, but

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Speaker 2: we're badly projected in the previous estimates that were they.

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Speaker 2: Then we come into the area of much bigger arns,

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Speaker 2: and these are particularly We know there is something like

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Speaker 2: fourteen billion dollars worth of undone sorry deferred maintenance within

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Speaker 2: the system because of the way it was run before.

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Speaker 2: This is a terrible load on the system. It can't

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Speaker 2: all be dealt with in one hit, And maybe some

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Speaker 2: of it will never be dealt with. But that is

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Speaker 2: an issue which cutting staff and making the other cuts

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Speaker 2: that are being made simply can't do anything about. And

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Speaker 2: then finally there is the new capital requirements outstanding in

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Speaker 2: the new hospital and the needn in other places again

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Speaker 2: where need has been demonstrated but the system has not

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Speaker 2: been estimating or controlling its costs very well. This is

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Speaker 2: all an outcome of what we needed to change.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but those estimates that you're talking about very quickly,

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Speaker 1: who's making these estimates? How are they getting them so

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Speaker 1: wrong or old.

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Speaker 2: To fartow work. It's caught in the middle of this.

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Speaker 2: Tafatowora is trying to pull together figures from the plenty

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Speaker 2: eye previous districts sports. That's one part of it, right,

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Speaker 2: But the main people who have always been in control

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Speaker 2: of this have been the Ministry of Health and Treasury.

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Speaker 2: They're the people who have had no changes significantly made

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Speaker 2: to them in this respect. Help Ministry lost some stuff

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Speaker 2: to fight to Wara, but it's basically the historical people

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Speaker 2: who have got the main responsibility to this, and the

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Speaker 2: key thing is to fight or the commissioner or however

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Speaker 2: it is organized, can't staff cut and staff restrict costs

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Speaker 2: to make this better.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you very much for being with me this

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Speaker 1: wanting to appreciate it. Rob Campbell, former Health New Zealand chair,

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Speaker 1: on the deficit reduction. Deficit good, but deficit big still bad.

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Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live

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Speaker 2: to News Talks it Be from five am weekdays, or

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