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Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 1: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald.

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Speaker 2: Politics is rarely.

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Speaker 1: Quiet in New Zealand, but we've seen plenty of upheaval

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Speaker 1: in the last few weeks. Notably, after over a year

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Speaker 1: of protests and thousands of submissions against it, the Treaty

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Speaker 1: Principal's Bill has finally been killed off after being voted

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Speaker 1: down in its second reading in the House yesterday.

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Speaker 2: But things are looking up for the coalition, with.

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Speaker 1: Two recent polls birming up support for National Act and

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Speaker 1: Ends at first, even if it remains a tight race

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Speaker 1: between the right and left blocks. Now that trade wars

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Speaker 1: and tariffs have shaken up the global economy, what is

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Speaker 1: the government going to focus on to keep their re

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Speaker 1: election hopes alive and labor thrive despite.

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Speaker 2: Controversies hitting its partners.

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Speaker 1: Today on the Front Page to talk through the latest

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Speaker 1: in politics, we're joined by Newstalk.

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Speaker 2: ZB political editor Jason Wolves.

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Speaker 1: So, Jason, let's start with the end of the Treaty

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Speaker 1: Principle's Bill. It's fair to say this one has been

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Speaker 1: pretty divisive and a bit of a burden that National

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Speaker 1: has carried so far.

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Speaker 2: This term.

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Speaker 1: Now that the bill has been voted down, do you

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Speaker 1: think that's the end of it or has David Seymour

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Speaker 1: opened a Pandora's box with this one.

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Speaker 3: Well, David Seymour would like to think that this one

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Speaker 3: is coming back. I mean he's been making all these

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Speaker 3: cryptic remarks about this isn't the end of the fight,

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Speaker 3: and we've still got various different things that we can

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Speaker 3: do so or yet to see what that is. And

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Speaker 3: he consistently talks about this is how this is an

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Speaker 3: MMP government and we're an MMP system. So everything is

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Speaker 3: back on the table when it comes to negotiations the

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Speaker 3: next time around.

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Speaker 4: But there is almost no way that Christopher Luxen will

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Speaker 4: let this happen.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he probably won't say it in public, but

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Speaker 3: he probably does quite regret letting this bill come out

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Speaker 3: in the way that it has. I mean, he has

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Speaker 3: been very forthright in his condemnation of the bill, but

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Speaker 3: that is after it did have its first reading where

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Speaker 3: the Nats voted for it, and the select committee process

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Speaker 3: as well. So listen, it has been somewhat of a

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Speaker 3: weight around Christopher Luxen and National's neck. And in the

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Speaker 3: House yesterday there and PS were talking about how they

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Speaker 3: were happy to see the back of it, and Chris

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Speaker 3: Luxen was saying it's time to move on. So whether

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Speaker 3: we actually are able to move on is really up

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Speaker 3: to David Seymour.

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Speaker 1: Well, was it ever good enough that they always said

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Speaker 1: that they were going to vote it down at the

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Speaker 1: second reading?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, to be honest, they didn't always say

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Speaker 3: that it was.

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Speaker 4: It was quite unclear.

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Speaker 3: In the coalition agreement it did say that they would

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Speaker 3: support it to a select committee, and then after that

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Speaker 3: it was a little bit more ambiguous. And right at

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Speaker 3: the start, the Prime Minister wasn't committing to anything until

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Speaker 3: the situation really turned and he felt the pressure and

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Speaker 3: he got more and more fork right every single week

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Speaker 3: to the point where we have it now where he's

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Speaker 3: talking about how to visit it is and how he

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Speaker 3: wants to see the back of it. Right at the

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Speaker 3: beginning of government, he wasn't talking like that.

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Speaker 1: So both the most recent ur and zed Reid research

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Speaker 1: and one Newsvarian polls have shown the Coalition remains ahead,

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Speaker 1: maintaining a two to six seat lead over the Left.

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Speaker 1: Blog what do you think is keeping them at the

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Speaker 1: front of the pack at the moment.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think that some of the international trips have

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Speaker 3: certainly helped. I mean people are looking at the fact

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Speaker 3: that Winston is actually quite statesmanly overseas and they like

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Speaker 3: the look of that, and the PM and India and Vietnam.

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Speaker 4: Is he's looking quite good on the global stage.

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Speaker 3: And there is a sense, you know, that the economy

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Speaker 3: is not in as good a shape as it could be,

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Speaker 3: and there is a sense and the government is certainly

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Speaker 3: trying to be shifting the blame to the Trump administration,

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Speaker 3: saying well, it's because of these tariffs that we're going

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Speaker 3: to see some economic hurts. And it seems like people

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Speaker 3: are hearing that message and receiving it. I mean, Nicola

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Speaker 3: Willis has done well at really fostering that idea. But

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Speaker 3: the other side of politics is people are not liking

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Speaker 3: what they're seeing. On the other side, I mean, labor

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Speaker 3: has been relatively quiet. I would say they haven't put

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Speaker 3: out anything much in the realms of policy. I mean

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Speaker 3: it would be unusual to start seeing that in midway

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Speaker 3: through the term. But you look at the support partners

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Speaker 3: on the left, I mean, the Greens have had one

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Speaker 3: heck of a couple of weeks in terms of bouncing

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Speaker 3: from one scandal to the other, anti party Mahdi with

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Speaker 3: this business of the Privileges Committee and really thumbing their nose.

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Speaker 4: At to process at how this all works.

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Speaker 3: I think voters would probably look at that and say,

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Speaker 3: I kind of prefer the other guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll get more on those things in a moment.

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Speaker 1: The government has also released its new quarterly plan, with

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Speaker 1: thirty eight things on the to do list, most of

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Speaker 1: which are taking things to cabinet or passing already announced legislation.

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Speaker 1: Do we need to see some kind of bold or

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Speaker 1: at least marginally interesting policy from the government.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean.

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Speaker 3: They would probably argue that we're already seeing that, and

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Speaker 3: as a journalist I love to see marginally interesting things

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Speaker 3: come across my desk, so I'll be hoping for that

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Speaker 3: as well. I mean, there are a few things in

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Speaker 3: there that will kind of get generate some headlines, such

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Speaker 3: as changes to the new Zealand driver's license standards. You know,

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Speaker 3: we'd be looking at that to see what is that,

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Speaker 3: How does that affect me, how does that affect people

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Speaker 3: that I know? But I do think on the whole,

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Speaker 3: these quarterly plans are quite good. It gives a really

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Speaker 3: strong indication of what the government's focus is and what's

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Speaker 3: coming next. But it doesn't mean that they're really concreted

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Speaker 3: and wedded to what's happening in the quarterly Plan.

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Speaker 4: They can do things outside of that.

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Speaker 3: For example, you know, the quarterly Plan didn't have pasta

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Speaker 3: or announce the Defense Capability Plan, but the government did that,

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Speaker 3: you know.

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Speaker 4: So they're not.

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Speaker 3: Strictly wedded to doing only what is in the quarterly Plan.

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Speaker 3: But the fact that they have a bit of a

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Speaker 3: roadmap is something that's very good when it comes to certainty.

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Speaker 1: And that big defense budget commitment. Is that the kind

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Speaker 1: of thing that gets people rushing to the polls.

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Speaker 3: In a way yes, and in another way no. And

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Speaker 3: I know that sounds cryptic and doesn't make much sense,

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Speaker 3: but let me explain it. You'll have people that look

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Speaker 3: at the state of the world right now and think

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Speaker 3: it's probably high time that New Zealand does invest more

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Speaker 3: in defense. And our defense force doesn't just blow things

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Speaker 3: up and go to war. I mean a lot of

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Speaker 3: what our defense force does is helps out with initiatives

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Speaker 3: in the Pacific and providing relief after disasters. So that

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Speaker 3: is critically important because New Zealand does have a responsibility

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Speaker 3: in the Pacific to do those sorts of things. But

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Speaker 3: on the other hand, I mean, it makes it a

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Speaker 3: lot easier for opposition parties to say you're spending twelve

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Speaker 3: billion dollars on defense, but you're not funding X policy

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Speaker 3: that would have why impact on child poverty. So would

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Speaker 3: It's going to make things a lot easier for the

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Speaker 3: left to attack the government. But I think they're probably

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Speaker 3: happy to wear this because I think that more people

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Speaker 3: than not understand that this is a critical need for

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Speaker 3: this sort of taxpayer funding.

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Speaker 5: Let's bring up the preferred prime minister numbers now. Christopher

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Speaker 5: Luxen is up one but at twenty three percent, he's

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Speaker 5: still facing a tough crowd. Chris Hipkins is up three

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Speaker 5: points to twenty percent, his highest result in a year

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Speaker 5: and a half. Winston Peters continues his party strong results,

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Speaker 5: up two points on seven percent. Meanwhile, down two points

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Speaker 5: is Chloe Swallbreck on four percent, the co leader under

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Speaker 5: pressure last week over the Benjamin Doyle scandal, taking an

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Speaker 5: even bigger hit though David Smore down three points to

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Speaker 5: three percent. The school Lunch's minister getting a serve of

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Speaker 5: his own.

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Speaker 1: So the one use poll in particular, how a two

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Speaker 1: percent rise for Winston Peters. This comes after the Deputy

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Speaker 1: PM came out swinging against things like DEI policies and

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Speaker 1: trans riots. Do you think that is actually resonating with

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Speaker 1: voters or given he stops being Deputy PM next month,

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Speaker 1: do you think he's just getting started on his whole

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Speaker 1: campaign mode.

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I think that identity politics and these sorts

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Speaker 3: of issues will become more prevalent as we get to

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Speaker 3: the election. And Winston Peters has seen that this works

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Speaker 3: for him. It's not just this time, but he's seen

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Speaker 3: it throughout his entire career as well. So I would

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Speaker 3: absolutely be banking on Winston to continue beating this sort

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Speaker 3: of anti DEI. I mean, he just learned the word woke,

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Speaker 3: so he's going to be rallying against that sort of

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Speaker 3: thing as well.

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Speaker 1: So he's learned a few words this week he has

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Speaker 1: he has in.

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Speaker 3: Terms of the Benjamin Doyle saga, there is one word

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Speaker 3: that he learned that he hasn't been able to explain

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Speaker 3: to us, the meaning of which Chicklam quite grateful to

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Speaker 3: not hear. The An eighty year old man described that

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Speaker 3: but in terms of what he wants to do next,

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Speaker 3: I would say absolutely these identity politics is going to

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Speaker 3: be the front of New zealand first initiatives.

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Speaker 1: It's his eightieth birthday this week, making him the oldest

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Speaker 1: serving politician in Parliament. He's just six years shy of

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Speaker 1: Walter Nash's record. He was eighty six when he died,

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Speaker 1: still serving his constituents. Now do you think Peters is

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Speaker 1: still in this for the long haul. There's been not

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Speaker 1: a mutter, not a murmur about retirement or succession plans publicly,

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Speaker 1: at least if.

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Speaker 3: You started talking about the succession plans, first person that

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Speaker 3: would come at you would be Winston Peters. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you say his name three times in a row, spin

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Speaker 3: around and he appears behind you to tell you how

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Speaker 3: you're a bad journalist because you didn't ask this question

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Speaker 3: or you have the wrong focus on that, and he

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Speaker 3: is still doing it well. I mean he is one

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Speaker 3: of the best, if not the best foreign ministers New

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Speaker 3: Zealand has ever seen.

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Speaker 4: He's well respected.

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Speaker 3: By not just m fact but by other diplomats around

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Speaker 3: the world and other people in government, so on that

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Speaker 3: side of things, he absolutely has more to go. It

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Speaker 3: really depends on the next iteration of government. I think

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Speaker 3: that he could probably keep going if he was a minister,

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Speaker 3: I think he would have a lot harder of a

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Speaker 3: time in opposition. And I don't think that Winston has

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Speaker 3: another term in opposition in him, but I think that

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Speaker 3: he's probably more than willing and able to do another

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Speaker 3: term in government well.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the other side of the aisle, Labor leader

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Speaker 1: Chris Hopkins continues to poll decently. The gap between them

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Speaker 1: and National isn't huge, but if Labor wants to get

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Speaker 1: back in next year, they'll need the Greens in Tibati

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Speaker 1: Maldi right. In the last two weeks, though, Green MP

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Speaker 1: Tamotha Pole has come under fire from some waters for

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Speaker 1: her views on policing.

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Speaker 5: And I want to acknowledge the people that enter the

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Speaker 5: police force with the hope of changing things, because that

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Speaker 5: system has rotten in many ways.

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Speaker 1: And her fellow MP, Benjamin Doyle, of course, has been

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Speaker 1: in the eye of a storm of controversy over some

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Speaker 1: old social media posts. So Bussy is a reference to me,

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Speaker 1: as I've said, Pussy ga Law is a wordplay of

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Speaker 1: the character from the James Bond novel Goldfinger. Pussy Galore

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Speaker 1: and then going back to the Treaty Principal's bill you

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Speaker 1: mentioned before, to Batty Maldi and PE's have refused to

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Speaker 1: face the Privileges Committee over that Hakker from last year.

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Speaker 1: How do you think all of this has gone down

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Speaker 1: in the Labor camp?

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Speaker 3: Oh? I know that the Labor Party is not happy

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Speaker 3: about it. I know that they've what they're think publicly.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Chris Hopkins came up very strongly against Tamotha Paul,

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Speaker 3: calling her comments stupid, and since then Tarmotha Paul is

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Speaker 3: actually fired back at Chris Hepkins.

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Speaker 4: So there's a lot of friendly.

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Speaker 3: Fire going on that doesn't actually look particularly friendly. Tamatha

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Speaker 3: Paul did actually acknowledge that she would not be the

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Speaker 3: police minister if there was a government, and that probably

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Speaker 3: should have been obvious. There's absolutely no way that somebody

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Speaker 3: like Tamotha Paul should be in charge of the police

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Speaker 3: after making those sorts of comments. And you know, I

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Speaker 3: will admit there have been a lot of people that

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Speaker 3: have come out and said that she was correct to

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Speaker 3: say what she did in terms of some of the

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Speaker 3: contexts around people that don't feel safe with police. But

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Speaker 3: that is the comment of an opposition MP, not to

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Speaker 3: the comment of somebody who is the police Minister in waiting,

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Speaker 3: and Ginny Anderson obviously would probably assume that Mantle again

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Speaker 3: should Labor win the election, and she's still around when.

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Speaker 4: That does occur.

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Speaker 1: And do you reckon Labor being so vocal about those

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Speaker 1: comments like you said, but then on the other hand

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Speaker 1: so distant from the whole Benjamin Doyle saga, do you

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Speaker 1: reckon they think that they can win the majority by

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Speaker 1: themselves potentially next year.

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Speaker 3: I think that that sort of ship has sailed in

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Speaker 3: terms of a majority. I mean, we saw in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty the just our durn government achieve an unprecedented majority

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Speaker 3: in the House. They didn't need coalition partners, they could

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Speaker 3: have done it all themselves.

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Speaker 4: We will never.

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Speaker 3: See that again, I don't think, and I think that

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Speaker 3: the circumstances in which the fostered that will probably not

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Speaker 3: happen again. And listen, I might be wrong. It could

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Speaker 3: happen again. I could have egg on my face, but

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Speaker 3: it's extremely unlikely. So Labor know that they need to

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Speaker 3: play nice with the Greens and Tea Party Marty, but

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Speaker 3: I also do know that it's behind the scenes especially

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Speaker 3: with Tea Party Marty. There is a lot of concern

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Speaker 3: because Tea Party Marty are very radical and the government

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Speaker 3: will try in the next election campaign to paint them

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Speaker 3: all with the same brush, to say, a vote for

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Speaker 3: Cruscipkins is a vote for Tea Party. And look at

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Speaker 3: what TI Party Marty are doing, which is great for

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Speaker 3: Tea Party Marty. I mean, they've managed to gather support

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Speaker 3: since they've been.

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Speaker 4: In Parliament at a rate of knots.

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Speaker 3: But it doesn't help the wider left coalition, but it

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Speaker 3: does help the party itself.

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Speaker 1: And of course the biggest political news in the world

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Speaker 1: right now is the US tariffs and the subsequent shakeup

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Speaker 1: of the global economy. What sort of challenge do you

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Speaker 1: think this means for our government?

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Speaker 4: Oh, it's a big challenge for them.

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Speaker 3: We saw earlier this week with Chris Lutson and Nikola

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Speaker 3: Willis coming out and giving these sort of impromptu stand

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Speaker 3: ups about the state of the economy, and Nicola Willis

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Speaker 3: in particular was doing her utmost to say this is

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Speaker 3: because of the tariffs. The government is here to help,

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Speaker 3: the government is got to plan. The government's plan is working,

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Speaker 3: but these tariffs really throw a Spanner and the works there.

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Speaker 3: So they're worried because obviously the budget was very tight,

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Speaker 3: already operating allowance of two point five billion dollars.

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Speaker 4: That's new money going into the budget.

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Speaker 3: Grant Robertson was closer to three and a half four

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Speaker 3: billion dollars, So there's already a lot of money that

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Speaker 3: they don't have. You already don't have a lot of

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Speaker 3: money to extra money to play with. So the fact

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Speaker 3: that the economy is going to be hit like this

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Speaker 3: will hit tax revenues. And as tax revenues are hit,

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Speaker 3: it means the government has less money as well. So

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Speaker 3: obviously you can see why they're worried about this because

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Speaker 3: people vote based on the economy for a lot of them,

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Speaker 3: and if you're not feeling good, you're going to take

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Speaker 3: that out on the government.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't matter if it's Trump's fault.

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Speaker 6: We've looked across government, both at an individual department or

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Speaker 6: agency level and across government as a whole, and we've

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Speaker 6: seen not just so much what are the areas that

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Speaker 6: are completely wasteful, but where are the areas where there

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Speaker 6: was a good intention. But actually, when we measure it

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Speaker 6: up in the cold light of day, these dollars are

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Speaker 6: not delivering as much as they could elsewhere. So there's

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Speaker 6: a number of areas we've looked at. Will make them

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Speaker 6: all clear on budget day. But one thing is a

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Speaker 6: theme of the budget, which is that the public service

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Speaker 6: isn't going to get more funding for doing the same thing.

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Speaker 6: There is only more funding if new Zealanders are going

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Speaker 6: to benefit from additional services or improved impact from those services.

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Speaker 1: And in terms of that bad jet, I mean, how

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Speaker 1: much where they've got little to no regal room, don't they?

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Speaker 1: But what are the chances of them completely changing it

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Speaker 1: within the next couple of weeks. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: we don't know what is happening our tower with the

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Speaker 1: US tariffs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's always a risk that that happens, but we probably

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Speaker 3: wouldn't know. There's nothing more secret in politics than the

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Speaker 3: budget process and the preparation, So if there were some

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Speaker 3: big tectonic changes happening behind the scenes, we.

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Speaker 4: Probably wouldn't know what those were.

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Speaker 3: Nicola Willis would give us an inkling that that would

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Speaker 3: be happening.

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Speaker 4: She does.

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Speaker 3: She's quite good at dropping what I like to call

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Speaker 3: fiscal breadcrumbs when it comes to laying out what's happening

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Speaker 3: with the government. She'll softly, softly start talking about how

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Speaker 3: times are tough and international, what we're seeing, and how

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Speaker 3: much it costs the government to pay back some of

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Speaker 3: its some of the debt that it's taken on. So

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Speaker 3: I imagine that she would definitely let us know the

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Speaker 3: tenor of the budget has changed, but I don't think

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Speaker 3: we'd be very likely to know how much it has

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Speaker 3: changed since it was put together at the beginning or

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Speaker 3: at the end of last year.

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Speaker 1: And Australia is of course gearing up for an election,

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Speaker 1: and a few months ago it looked like Anthony Alberzi

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Speaker 1: would be a one term PM, but now the polls

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Speaker 1: have narrowed, with Labor back in the lead. Similarly, in Canada,

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Speaker 1: we reported earlier this year on Justin Trudeau's resignation and

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Speaker 1: the expected wipeout of his Liberal party. Now The Economist

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Speaker 1: reports that the Liberals under the new PM, Mark Karney,

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Speaker 1: are enjoying one of the largest polling surges in political history.

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Speaker 1: The New York Times has called it the Trump bump,

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Speaker 1: benefiting moderate leaders. Who do you think might benefit from

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Speaker 1: this election in twenty twenty six, Perhaps, well.

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Speaker 3: It's an interesting one because both chris Is are both

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Speaker 3: moderate leaders, and Chris Luxon and Nicola Willis will definitely

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Speaker 3: run on a don't rock the boat sort of platform.

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Speaker 3: But again, I mean, if you have to look at

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Speaker 3: the shape of the government and who would be the

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Speaker 3: most I'm not chaotic, but who would be the hardest

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Speaker 3: bedfellows to work with. I mean, say what you will

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Speaker 3: about Winston Peters and David Seymour, but they have worked

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Speaker 3: together well. The government hasn't fallen apart. There have been

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Speaker 3: some issues school lunches notably, but they also agree to

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Speaker 3: disagree at times. And one of the great things that

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister did when crafting this coalition agreement was

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Speaker 3: he allowed those support parties to be themselves and so

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Speaker 3: New Zealand First still has a very much New Zealand

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Speaker 3: First identity.

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Speaker 4: They didn't just adopt.

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Speaker 3: The government and become some gray shadow of what they

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Speaker 3: once were.

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Speaker 4: They're still New Zealand First.

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Speaker 3: Likewise, with the Act Party, voters are now used to

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Speaker 3: that and it's not actually all that scary as it

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Speaker 3: was before the elections to a lot of people.

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Speaker 4: Looking at the other side, I think.

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Speaker 3: That there will be still and going back to the

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Speaker 3: point that I made before a lot of concern around

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Speaker 3: a government with Tipati Marti and the Greens, given the

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Speaker 3: perspective that of a lot of people that those two

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Speaker 3: partners are getting more and more radical.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Jason, no problem ador. That's it

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Speaker 1: for this episode of the Front Page. You can read

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Speaker 1: more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzherld

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Speaker 1: dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by

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Speaker 1: Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, and tune in on Monday for another

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Speaker 1: look behind the headlines.