WEBVTT - Quick bite: A timeline for NZ's economic recovery

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to a Charsis podcast and keen to find

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<v Speaker 1>out what your outlook for the year is now that

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<v Speaker 1>we've had another cut and possibly will have some more.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's not just about interest rate cuts now, there's

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<v Speaker 2>more in the mix there. There are definitely some positives

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<v Speaker 2>for the New Zealand economy. The Reserve banker predicting the

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<v Speaker 2>economy will grow about zero point six percent a quarter

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<v Speaker 2>from here on out possible. I think they could be

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit optimistic. But you're the positives of the

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<v Speaker 2>interst rate pain easing away and disappearing. That's completely different

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<v Speaker 2>from saying there's an interrast rate boost coming along, which

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<v Speaker 2>is more your pandemic period GFC, that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 2>The dairy payout, so that's positive for the dairying regions,

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<v Speaker 2>not so much of an impact on the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the country there. World economy neither here nor there too

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<v Speaker 2>greatly I think, and causing too much to happen there. Construction, yeah, infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a slow burn to improve, so that'll be a stimulant,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's incremental over a long period of time. Soure Shall,

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<v Speaker 2>I definitely see some positives here on the commercial construction side,

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<v Speaker 2>house building, standalone houses improving later this year. Townhouse construction

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<v Speaker 2>just falling straight lining away. I think to some point

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty six is going to be a restraint

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<v Speaker 2>on growth. I think there's scope for a few more

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<v Speaker 2>foreign students to come into New Zealand. On the tourism side, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess maybe the government's new campaign will drag a

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<v Speaker 2>few more people into New Zealand. It's got a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of publicity overseas, so it's so good on them. It

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't boost the productivity in our economy, it doesn't boost

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<v Speaker 2>our income per capita or at all. Just more people

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<v Speaker 2>serving in the cafeterias, cafes, et cetera. But overall, my

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<v Speaker 2>outlookers for the economy to improve, and I guess my

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<v Speaker 2>focus will be mainly when does that lead to people's

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<v Speaker 2>feelings about the labor market changing? When do people feel

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<v Speaker 2>a greater amount of job security. I'll be able to

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<v Speaker 2>see that straight away in my real estate survey, because

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<v Speaker 2>I asked the agents and they're right at the cold

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<v Speaker 2>face and they'll see it. I'd'm thinking that is sometime

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<v Speaker 2>in the second half of this year, and that will

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<v Speaker 2>then I think flow through to the house housing market

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<v Speaker 2>putting in a better performance, but for the moment while,

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<v Speaker 2>I've still got about a net fifty one percent of

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<v Speaker 2>the agent saying all people are worried about their jobs

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<v Speaker 2>or sorry, a gross fifty one percent is just going

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<v Speaker 2>to keep a bit of a dampner on the housing

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<v Speaker 2>market for the first half.

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<v Speaker 1>Of this year.

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<v Speaker 2>Investing involves the risk you might lose the money you

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<v Speaker 2>start with. We recommend talking to a licensed financial advisor.

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<v Speaker 2>We also recommend reading product disclosure documents before deciding to invest.