Speaker 1: You're listening to a Charsis podcast and keen to find
Speaker 1: out what your outlook for the year is now that
Speaker 1: we've had another cut and possibly will have some more.
Speaker 2: But it's not just about interest rate cuts now, there's
Speaker 2: more in the mix there. There are definitely some positives
Speaker 2: for the New Zealand economy. The Reserve banker predicting the
Speaker 2: economy will grow about zero point six percent a quarter
Speaker 2: from here on out possible. I think they could be
Speaker 2: a little bit optimistic. But you're the positives of the
Speaker 2: interst rate pain easing away and disappearing. That's completely different
Speaker 2: from saying there's an interrast rate boost coming along, which
Speaker 2: is more your pandemic period GFC, that sort of thing.
Speaker 2: The dairy payout, so that's positive for the dairying regions,
Speaker 2: not so much of an impact on the rest of
Speaker 2: the country there. World economy neither here nor there too
Speaker 2: greatly I think, and causing too much to happen there. Construction, yeah, infrastructure,
Speaker 2: it's a slow burn to improve, so that'll be a stimulant,
Speaker 2: but it's incremental over a long period of time. Soure Shall,
Speaker 2: I definitely see some positives here on the commercial construction side,
Speaker 2: house building, standalone houses improving later this year. Townhouse construction
Speaker 2: just falling straight lining away. I think to some point
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six is going to be a restraint
Speaker 2: on growth. I think there's scope for a few more
Speaker 2: foreign students to come into New Zealand. On the tourism side, yeah,
Speaker 2: I guess maybe the government's new campaign will drag a
Speaker 2: few more people into New Zealand. It's got a lot
Speaker 2: of publicity overseas, so it's so good on them. It
Speaker 2: doesn't boost the productivity in our economy, it doesn't boost
Speaker 2: our income per capita or at all. Just more people
Speaker 2: serving in the cafeterias, cafes, et cetera. But overall, my
Speaker 2: outlookers for the economy to improve, and I guess my
Speaker 2: focus will be mainly when does that lead to people's
Speaker 2: feelings about the labor market changing? When do people feel
Speaker 2: a greater amount of job security. I'll be able to
Speaker 2: see that straight away in my real estate survey, because
Speaker 2: I asked the agents and they're right at the cold
Speaker 2: face and they'll see it. I'd'm thinking that is sometime
Speaker 2: in the second half of this year, and that will
Speaker 2: then I think flow through to the house housing market
Speaker 2: putting in a better performance, but for the moment while,
Speaker 2: I've still got about a net fifty one percent of
Speaker 2: the agent saying all people are worried about their jobs
Speaker 2: or sorry, a gross fifty one percent is just going
Speaker 2: to keep a bit of a dampner on the housing
Speaker 2: market for the first half.
Speaker 1: Of this year.
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