1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Insight into supermarkets in the Price we pay you report 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: this morning tells us we might have things roughly under control. 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: And you'll figure this is supplier numbers. Two point three percent. 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: It's on more than sixty thousand products. Tracked Infometric CEO 5 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,439 Speaker 1: and principal economist Brad Olsen did this particular report and 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: he's gone. He's just always on WhatsApp, Brad. 7 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 2: How are you good morning? Oh well, thank you? 8 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 1: Booming and fantastic two point three percent? Can we live 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: with that? That's acceptable. That's in the band of normality, isn't. 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: It certainly in a better position. I think the challenge 11 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: at the moment is that that two point three percent 12 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: a year is still above what we've seen it before 13 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 2: inflation really got going. You know, if you look back 14 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:42,599 Speaker 2: sort of twenty eighteen twenty nineteen or so, you were 15 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 2: seeing annual increases just below two percent. So it is 16 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: slightly higher than you'd want to see, but also given 17 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 2: the sort of pressures in recent times, it is does 18 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: seem like a bit more of a new normal. It's 19 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: certainly better than when we were seeing double digit increases. 20 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: And how much of that numbers made up of the 21 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: wacky stuff like cocoa and chocolate, and we can't contain 22 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: it versus stuff that you can contain, and we just 23 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: don't pass it on the way we used to. 24 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting, we're trying to dig into that 25 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: a bit more because what we have seen now is, 26 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 2: like you say, there's a few sort of more specific 27 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: items with very specific trends, the likes of cocoa, likes 28 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 2: of coffee that have gone up, cooking oil and similar 29 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 2: as well. Quite different though from again year year and 30 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 2: a half ago, when a lot of the annual increases 31 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: for costs were quite broad based. There were lots of items, 32 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 2: There were lots of items increasing of larger magnitudes. Now 33 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 2: things seem to be a little bit more case specific. 34 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 2: So I think that's. 35 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: Sort of. 36 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 2: We've seen the number of items increasing every month is 37 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: sort of settled back to a closer to normal level, 38 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: we'll call it. At the moment. It's still sort of 39 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: higher than it was before, but lower than at the peak. 40 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: So all of those trends combined do suggest it again, 41 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 2: maybe we're starting to see a bit more of that 42 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 2: new normal exist. 43 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: Is there any room for the grocery Commission to go aha? 44 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: Because I've arrived and I've employ meanted all of my 45 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: threats and rules. Look what's happened. 46 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a lot of things that are 47 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,959 Speaker 2: still going on in the market. I mean, certainly we've 48 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 2: had a conversation with the Communis Commission recently about how 49 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: we put our index together because they had some concerns there. 50 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: There doesn't seem to be a lot of hard and 51 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 2: fast arta that anyone has to sort of highlight how 52 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: specific those concerns might be, but we're trying to look 53 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 2: into there. I think probably what you're seeing is that 54 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: there's two things going on. There's one, the general conversation 55 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 2: about grocery competition. Two all of this has happened in 56 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:37,239 Speaker 2: a context of the highest levels of inflation in thirty 57 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: years or so. So I think there's probably two things 58 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 2: going on, but we often try to bring the two together. Look, 59 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 2: when we look through these numbers, I think, and you're 60 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 2: seeing this coming through a number of other indicators. A 61 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 2: lot of those input cost pressures are not quite as intense. 62 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 2: The likes of your input cost sorry import costs seem 63 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 2: to be stabilizing fuel costs down. The likes of on 64 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 2: farm costs again and stabilizing. So all of that I 65 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: think suggests that we're moving into a bit more of 66 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 2: a new normal state. 67 00:03:04,600 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: Fantastic Do we look through any of this because I've 68 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: been following the veggie market, for example, so fabulous growing season, 69 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 1: plenty of veggies prices are through the floor. But I 70 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: mean there's no controlling that is there? So do you 71 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: look through that or it is what it is? 72 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,679 Speaker 2: Well? I think, I mean it's funny we especially economists, 73 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 2: use this term sort of look through, and I think 74 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 2: it's often a little bit useless as a word. I 75 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 2: think it's more give regard to what's driving that. I mean, 76 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 2: if you look at the likes of Kumba prices, for example, 77 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 2: you go, well, yes, they're down quite a lot on 78 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: a year ago, and that was because the cyclone jecked 79 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: them up so much. So sort of you go, what 80 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 2: is sort of a better, more normal, more usual sort 81 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 2: of price. You're definitely right on the likes of the 82 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: vegetable and fruits markets. Yes, I think we've got to 83 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: have a bit of regard for what those different treadings 84 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 2: might be. But for example, fertilizer use and similar you know, 85 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: costs on that will change you know, yields in a 86 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: couple of seasons time, so there's a whole lot of 87 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 2: moving parts. I think. I mean, you look at even 88 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: the oil mark at the moment, because we often talk 89 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: about having to look through those prices. They've jumped the 90 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: last couple of days on tensions in the Middle East, 91 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 2: but they're still below eighty US a barrel. So again 92 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 2: context wise, I look at them and I go popped 93 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: a bit higher in recent times, sort of more usual 94 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,679 Speaker 2: in that eighty dollars range is not a bad place 95 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 2: to be. 96 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 1: Overall, good stuff, rap, nice to have maybe on the 97 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: program again. Brad Olson Info Metric CEO and principal economists. 98 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 99 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 2: news talks that'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 100 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 2: the podcast on iHeartRadio.