1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,280 Speaker 1: Right, It's election day tomorrow. Everyone is excited? Well is 2 00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: everyone excited? I suppose people are highly anticipating the result 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:08,719 Speaker 1: of the election. That's a fair way to put it. 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: Thomas Cogan is the New Zealand Herald deputy political editor. 5 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: He is in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the king of the swings. 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: So what's his pick for what is going to happen? 7 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 1: We'll go to I'm Live now. Hey, Thomas, Hey, Marten R. 8 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: Good to have you on the show. What are you feeling? 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 1: What's the vibe? 10 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 2: The vibe changes wherever I go. I've been asking myself 11 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 2: this question since I got here. I was in North 12 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: Carolina a couple of days ago and it was feeling 13 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: very kind of trumpy. I'm in downtown Philadelphia at the moment. 14 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 2: That's that's always going to be pretty harris so and 15 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: it does feel like that. And then I was in 16 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 2: the suburbs of Philadelphia a couple of days before that, 17 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 2: and that was feeling a bit of a mix. And 18 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 2: all the poles are saying it's incredibly pous, and it 19 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 2: honestly feels that way. It feels like there is no 20 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: convincing lead right aside? 21 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: What about this idea of polster herding. Is there any 22 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: truth in this I idea where the polsters are all 23 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: waiting their outcomes to be roughly the same, because it 24 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: does seem odd that every poll pretty much I mean, 25 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: you have that Iowa one the outline the other day, 26 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: but every pole pretty much has the neck and neck. 27 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: Shouldn't we have more? 28 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 2: Right? So you mentioned it, I away, Yeah, you mentioned that, 29 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: I think the Trump by three points, and it's a 30 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: view like it's a very there's not just any polls, 31 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: it's one that's been very young. The money for presidents 32 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 2: there is got it wrong. The last three elections, two 33 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: presidential elections and then the last minimum elections are quite wrong. 34 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: They have been looking at the methodologies to improve them, 35 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: and in doing so there is a convicting to be 36 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: made that they might be updating Donald Trump argument on 37 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: the chances and we won't know the answers of that 38 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 2: until the results are counters. But that actually does seem 39 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: like a very kind of potential potential outcome to what's 40 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 2: going on. It just because it is really quite weird 41 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 2: that all these poles are clustering, and they had hundreds 42 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: of poles over here, Ryan not like us every day we. 43 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: Have the well we pretty much have till bought Mills 44 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: and the Taxpayers Union doing us proud exactly. Hey, what 45 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: about the Houses of Congress? Who's going to get the Senate? 46 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: Who's going to get the because there was talk that 47 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: Republicans will definitely keep the Senate. Do you think that'll happen? 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 2: It looks like a toss up at the moment. So 49 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 2: there are half a dozen races. I mean, in Pennsylvania 50 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: at the moment, they've got quite a contenitive Senate race. 51 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 2: So it honestly, they could be they could be split. 52 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:44,679 Speaker 2: They could all go one way, they could all the 53 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,800 Speaker 2: other way. Again, I'm not sure. Again is too close 54 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: to all? 55 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: How much of this do you think will come down 56 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: to the you know, the Democrats and the Republicans getting 57 00:02:55,520 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: their base out versus those independents breaking one way all 58 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 1: the other? 59 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 2: Well, sorry that I see. 60 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: How much of this will come down to the Democrats 61 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 1: and the Republicans getting their base out versus the independence 62 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: breaking for Harris or Trump one way or the other. 63 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 2: It actually it's I mean, does seem like a bit 64 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 2: of both. I think the Democrats are focusing on on 65 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 2: on trying to do a bit of both, definitely doing 66 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: the turnout game and but also trying to trying to 67 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: break independence that way, it seems like the Republicans are 68 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: just simply focusing. The Republicans have always been quite skeptical 69 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: of early voting, but this election they are very, very 70 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: keen to get early voting, to get early voting across, 71 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: to encourage the voters to early vote, because they don't want, 72 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 2: you know, if there's a mass of blood tomorrow or 73 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 2: a rain storm or something that keeps people away from 74 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: the polls. They want to make sure that there as 75 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: many of their voters of voter as possible so that 76 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 2: a free giving like that doesn't doesn't then me chances. 77 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: Thomas, thank you very much. We'll let you get back 78 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: to the campaign. Thomas Cognan, Herald's deputy political editor with 79 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: us in Pennsylvania. For more from Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, 80 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks it Be from five am weekdays, 81 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.