1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Across the Tasman. The Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:06,040 Speaker 1: called the twenty twenty five general election that the Aussies 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: officially now heading to the polls on May the third. 4 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: Economic concerns, housing costs. When we talk about this quite 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: a lot on this program. Just what the issues are 6 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 1: over in Australia, you'll be familiar with them. Dennis Shanahan 7 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: is the national editor at The Australian. He's with me tonight. 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 2: Hi, Dennis, Good day, Ryan. 9 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: Great to have you on. So campaigning well underway and 10 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: I mean it's been underway for a while now, hasn't it. 11 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: But what's your sense of where the landscape is at 12 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: the moment. 13 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: Look, I think that and you're right, the campaigning has 14 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 2: been under way for quite a while. That the Prime 15 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: Minister really started in January and we haven't stopped. Now 16 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: we're what we're getting The message here clearly is that 17 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 2: the campaign's going to be fought over cost of living. 18 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: But the outlook is that the polls are showing that 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 2: the Prime Minister is likely most likely to lead Labor 20 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 2: into minority government. So that's where we're likely to go 21 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: because he has a very small majority. There's a bit 22 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,919 Speaker 2: of a swing against him, but by the same token, 23 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 2: the Opposition, led by Peter Dutton, has to win an 24 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 2: enormous number of seats to try and form government. So 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: at this stage, at the beginning of the five week campaign, 26 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 2: the outlook is most likely for the return of a 27 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: minority Labor government. 28 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: Which and how much of that is based on some 29 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: of the elections we've seen at state level. I mean 30 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 1: there were some around Perth and Wisdom Australia and the 31 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: Dunton you know, the Liberals not performing as well as 32 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: perhaps some might have thought, oh. 33 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: Well, that's true. But of course, unlike New Zealand, we 34 00:01:55,120 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: have state and federal elections, and Australian voters can really 35 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 2: distinguish when they go to the polls. Sometimes there are 36 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: elections at state and federal level quite close together, and 37 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 2: we will have that is the case in Western Australia 38 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 2: where the Liberals have been basically wiped out in the 39 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:20,839 Speaker 2: last two elections in West Australia and state elections, but 40 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:27,119 Speaker 2: the federal vote can sometimes be quite dramatically different, and 41 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 2: I think that we can't take too much of a 42 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 2: guide from state elections. We take an overall view, and 43 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 2: I think that when it comes down to it, Western 44 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,399 Speaker 2: Australia was extremely important in the last election because that's 45 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 2: where Labor picked up a lot of its seats, and 46 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: of course the Liberals lost to the Teel independence the 47 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: climate change independence on the East Coast, and that was 48 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: really the two deciding factors in the last election. This election, 49 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: Labor is hoping to hold on to its seats in 50 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 2: Western Australia, but could lose one or two there. But 51 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 2: the real decision, the real battle states are going to 52 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 2: be New South Wales and Victoria, because in Victoria Labor 53 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,360 Speaker 2: is a bit on the nose and in New South 54 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 2: Wales there's a lot of feeling in some traditional Labor 55 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: seats against some of the renewable policies of the Labor government, 56 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: not just the costs of energy, but the actual impact 57 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: on the electorates of offshore wind farms and rewiring the 58 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: nation to provide all of those twenty millions of meters 59 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 2: of wiring to make the transition and transmission to renewable energy. 60 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 2: So yes, there have been signs that the Liberals were 61 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: in trouble at the state level. The same thing in 62 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: South Australia as well. But what we are seeing is 63 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: a national shift to the Liberal Party since the last election, 64 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 2: quite a big shift since the last election. And Labor 65 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 2: is still at an historically low level of primary vote 66 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: in the polls. 67 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: And Donald Trump not being made about Trump and his 68 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: influence on this campaign, or not his influence but his 69 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: effect I suppose. And the tariffs that are coming in, 70 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: and you've had Malcolm Turnbull at play and now Anthony 71 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: Alberanezi comparing Dutton to Trump. How's that being received? 72 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 2: I will look, I think there will obviously be a 73 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 2: Trump impact on the federal election. The tariffs are the 74 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: main point. There's no doubt that already the Australians have 75 00:04:55,000 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 2: seen the likely imposition of tariffs and the next decision. 76 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 2: We're getting a few signals from the US that may 77 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 2: not be as bad as initially shown, but in any case, 78 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: there is going to be a definite US trade tariff 79 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: effect on the election. I think that Anthony Albernese has 80 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: done not too badly given his political differences with Donald Trump. 81 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 2: We certainly haven't done any worse than anyone else around 82 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 2: the world. And look, I think in reality, while Peter 83 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: Dutton is probably more akin to Trump's Republican flavor. It's 84 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 2: unlikely that it can do a great deal else But 85 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 2: the real factor of Trump is on the question of security. 86 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 2: It's on orcus, It's on the whether he will commit 87 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: to the continuing nuclear submarine program, which is huge, which 88 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 2: is part of what he is demanding Australia and other 89 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: nations do, and that is increasing their defense spending. And 90 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 2: it's also all about whether the Trump will continue to 91 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: stand up in the Pacific against China. And that's particularly 92 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 2: the case after the circumnavigation of the Australian continent by 93 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 2: the Chinese live firing fleet, which was very unpopular, made 94 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: a real impact in Australia. So I think Trump will 95 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 2: have an effect, but overall its cost of living. 96 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the local issues. Dennis. Thank you so much 97 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: for that analysis, Dennis Shanahan. He's the national editor at 98 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: The Australian and canber For more from Hither Duplessy Allen 99 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: Drive listen live to news talks. It'd be from four 100 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.