1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Gilda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, 2 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 1: a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Donald 3 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,319 Speaker 1: Trump has made it through his one hundred days back 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: in office and people are not thrilled with his performance. 5 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: His approval ratings at the one hundred day mark are 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: the lowest in seventy years, with only a forty four 7 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: percent approval for a man who won the popular vote 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: only seven months ago. It comes as his tenure has 9 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: so far been dominated by tariffs and trade wars, cutting 10 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: public services, gender mass deportations, and hitting out at his enemies. 11 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 1: And the Trump bump has even taken on a new meaning, 12 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 1: with Canada and Australia's left leaning political parties reversing polls 13 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: from the start of the year to stay in government. 14 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: But with roughly fourteen hundred days left in his presidency, 15 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: what does the future for Trump two point zero? We're 16 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: working through that today on the Front Page with University 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: of Otago professor of International Relations Robert Patman. Robert, how 18 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: would you rate Donald Trump's performance as US presidents so far? 19 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: Well, I think even from the point of view supporters, 20 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 2: it's been a rocky ride. It's been chaotic and shambolic, 21 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 2: And that's not really surprising given the fact that mister 22 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 2: Trump has put so much emphasis with his senior appointments 23 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 2: on loyalty rather than competence. So what we've witnessed is 24 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 2: a very ambitious agenda, both domestically in the United States 25 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: and internationally. But there is a suspicion that the implementation 26 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 2: of that agenda is in hands which are not particularly steady. 27 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, there have just been so many fit things that 28 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: have happened in just one hundred days. Most notably has 29 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: been the cuts to the public service and the me 30 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: of course, so let's focus on Doge first. This desire 31 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: to save billions by cutting services seems to have riled 32 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: up the public a lot more than probably anticipated. There's 33 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: been multiple reports of constituents confronting leaders at public meetings, 34 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: reports of infighting between Trump's cabinet and Elon Musk. Is 35 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: it a surprise that this has proved so toxic with 36 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: the public. 37 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 2: There, No, not really, because partly because there's a perception 38 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: that some of the people like Elon Musk and his 39 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 2: team of youngish software engineers who are overseeing as sort 40 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: of taking a chainsaw to the public service. They're not 41 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 2: particularly competent or experienced in the running of governance. Mister 42 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 2: musk background is not in that area. Also, there is 43 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: mounting indignation that mister Musk seems to be cutting everything 44 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 2: except his own government contracts, which are extremely big with 45 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 2: the government. So he is a contractor of the government. 46 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: But there is a complict of interest here, and I 47 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 2: think that's causing some concern. But yes, over one hundred 48 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,920 Speaker 2: and twenty thousand federal workers have been fired. We've seen 49 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: important fassets of American soft power, like us AID, which 50 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 2: is responsible for dispensing America's development aid around that that's 51 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 2: been disestablished. With the loss of ten thousand jobs. That's 52 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: going to have a long term effect on how the 53 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,240 Speaker 2: world perceives America to some degree. First of all, there 54 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 2: is a sense that the expectation of DOGE it's been 55 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:33,359 Speaker 2: working for three months. They claim they initially claimed they'd 56 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 2: saved two trillion. They then downlaid that claim to one trillion, 57 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 2: and now it's down to one hundred and fifty billion. 58 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 2: So I think they found all the waste and fraud 59 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 2: that they claim. There has been very little evidence produced 60 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: to back up claims that they have discovered such waste 61 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 2: and fraud, and it's not very impressive making claims and 62 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: not be aund to back them up. So I think 63 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: that's contributed to a sense of uneasy. You know, people 64 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 2: are losing their jobs and that is a concern. 65 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: The economy has also been a big issue. Trump was 66 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: voted in with a promise to lower the price of groceries. 67 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: Instead is actually making everything more expensive while also tanking 68 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: the economy. So why did he even choose to do 69 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: this in the first place. 70 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 2: Well, that's a very good question. Mister Trump and his 71 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 2: supporters seem to have got it in their heads that 72 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 2: the American economy was in an appalling state, when in 73 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 2: fact it was the best economy in the world by 74 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: every objective or impartial economic measure. So he inherited a 75 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: very strong economy, but he now seems to be in 76 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: the process of undermining that. And of course some economies 77 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: are warning that America could be entering a recession, its 78 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 2: economy could be going to recession. You only have to 79 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 2: look at the stock market to see its cumulative hemorrhaging 80 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 2: to realize the scale of how America's gone in the 81 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 2: wrong direction economically, and that is you know, more than 82 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,599 Speaker 2: eleven trillion has been lost from the US stock market 83 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 2: since mister Trump came to power. In general, yes, it's 84 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 2: rallying a bit now, but it's lost the you know, 85 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 2: it's lost a lot of ground, and the overall trend 86 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 2: has been downwards. So it's having good and bad days, 87 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 2: but the bad days tend to out and number the 88 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 2: good ones. 89 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 3: When does it become the Trump economy? 90 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 4: It partially is right now, and I really mean this. 91 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 4: I think the good parts of the Trump economy and 92 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 4: the bad parts of the Baden economy because he's done 93 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 4: a terrible job. He did a terrible job on everything. 94 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: But sir, you acknowledge when you announced your tariffs, for example, 95 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 3: the stock market dropped, it's been volatile. It has since 96 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 3: gone up. Do you take responsibility that? 97 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: Yeah? 98 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:46,799 Speaker 3: Do you take responsibility? 99 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 4: Ultimately? I take responsibility for everything. But I've only just 100 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 4: been here for a little more than three months. Yeah. 101 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: Well, a lot of people who did support Trump seem 102 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: to have turned on him over his handling of the economy. 103 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: I've seen lots of commentary online from people saying that 104 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: they didn't vote for this from Trump. They voted for 105 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: him because they wanted to shake up the establishment. They 106 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: wanted inflation to come down, they wanted immigration under control. 107 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: But has he betrayed voters or is this kind of 108 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: what we have come to expect from him. 109 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 2: No, I think mister Trump, there were some things which 110 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 2: he have you pulled out of a hat, so to speak. 111 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: He's threat to annex Canada and also Greenland, as well 112 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 2: as takeover Gaza. As far as I can see, there 113 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: was nothing in his campaign that suggested he might do that, 114 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: although he made threatening noises immediately after he was elected 115 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 2: with respect to Canada. But on the other matters, Doge 116 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 2: was certainly something that Musk and mister Trump had agreed 117 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 2: even before the election. Musk was a key player for 118 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 2: mister Trump's election victory. He pumped in about two hundred 119 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 2: and seventy seven million dollars into supporting Trump, and of 120 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 2: course was rewarded with a very good job. But this 121 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 2: is very much a government by billionaires. I mean, thirteen 122 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 2: heads of government agencies are now billionaires, and that's prompted 123 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: people on the left of the political spectrum, like Bernie 124 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 2: Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez known as AOC. They've been 125 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: launching a nationwide anti oligarchy campaign. With respect to the 126 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 2: question you asked, I think mister Trump indicated he was 127 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 2: always going for tariffs, so that was no surprise. He 128 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 2: often said, it's a beautiful thing, tariffs. There's two things 129 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: that have troubled mister Trump for a long time. The 130 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: first of all the perception that Americans being ripped off. 131 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 2: All I can say, if America's being ripped off, the 132 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 2: people respond deemed to be responsible for that. The rest 133 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 2: of the world have done a remarkably competent job, because America, 134 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: by the time mister Trump came to power, remained head 135 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: and shoulders the most powerful country in the world. And 136 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 2: the second thing was tariff's He believed that tariffs could 137 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 2: correct the situation, and I think many of his voters 138 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: did not seem to realize that tariffs are actually internal 139 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 2: tax on American consumers. And there was a very interesting 140 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 2: development where Amazon attempted to point out to their consumers 141 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 2: the actual price of the tariffs that the American government 142 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: has imposed on certain products coming from overseas, and that 143 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 2: met from a very angry response from mister Trump and 144 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 2: his press spokesperson Caroline leave It And as a result 145 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 2: of that pressure, Amazon removed the explanation to their consumers 146 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 2: in detailing the actual costs of the tariffs being imposed. 147 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 2: So it is a sensitive issue. But yeah, I mean, 148 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 2: I think many people took at face value his claimed 149 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 2: that he could reduce costs, while in the next breath 150 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 2: he was saying, I'll be adding some tariffs as well. 151 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 2: They probably didn't make the connection between the imposition of 152 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 2: tariffs and the increase in their cost of doing. 153 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: It's funny that you bring up Amazon, actually, because I 154 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: was going to as well. I know that there's some 155 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 1: talk about Elon Musk not being particularly happy with how 156 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: things are going. And now when I saw Amazon in 157 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: the headlines, I thought, oh, Jeff Bezos was in what 158 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: the front row of the inauguration as well. Do you 159 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: think that he will continue to have the support from 160 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: the likes of Musk and Jeff Bezos or will that 161 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: linger for the next few years. 162 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 2: It's difficult to predict. But what we do know in 163 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 2: the first three months, those high tech bros, people like Bezos, Musk, 164 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 2: Suckerberg from Facebook all strong supporters of Trump going for 165 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: the White House. They have been all of them have 166 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,599 Speaker 2: been quite hit quite hard by the losses on the 167 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 2: stock exchange. It's been high tech companies that have borne 168 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 2: the brunt of that. Give you an example, when mister 169 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 2: Trump introduced his tariffs on the second of April. Within 170 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 2: the next two days, there were six trillion in losses 171 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 2: in the stock exchange for trially of those affected high 172 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: tech digital companies. That may be part of the reason 173 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 2: why Musk is unhappy. I suspect also he's unhappy about 174 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 2: what's happening to Tesla, one of the five companies under 175 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 2: his control, which has gone through. I mean it's external sales, 176 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 2: particularly in Europe, have collapsed, and people have been very 177 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 2: angry about what Musk has been saying about many countries, 178 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: including Germany. People do have real clout and they can 179 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 2: exercise it by simply stopping buying products, which they have 180 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 2: done in some cases. But yes, it's going to be 181 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: interesting to see how this sort of constellation of high 182 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 2: tech leaders in very big businesses whether they are going 183 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 2: to stick with mister Trump through thick and thin. I 184 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 2: suspect some may peel off, but others may believe on balance, 185 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 2: the advantage is to be in a position where they 186 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 2: can influence the White House or at least have a 187 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 2: channel of communication. But yes, there's a lot of unknowns 188 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 2: at this stage, Chelsea. We're only three months in the administration, 189 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 2: or one hundred days or so, and so you know, 190 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: a lot could happen in the next three months. 191 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: Just after the one hundred day mark, there was the 192 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 1: first administration official shakeup, with Mike Waltz losing his post 193 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: as National Secretary Advisor in the wake of that signal 194 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 1: chat leak and other scandals. Are you surprised it took 195 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: so long after that scandal broke for a head to 196 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: roll over this. 197 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 4: Yeah. 198 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 2: I think the circumstances relating to his remove. Obviously the 199 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 2: signal gate episode did not help, but he is perhaps 200 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: one of the more combatant and experienced people working in 201 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,199 Speaker 2: the national security field. Mister Trump, as one insiders said, 202 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: likes his officials to act as staff rather than principles. 203 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 2: There is a bit of a sus that mister Waltz, 204 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 2: who came to the job with some i say solid 205 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:08,959 Speaker 2: credentials in the national security area, had quite distinct views. 206 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: He was a hard liner on Russia, so he disagreed 207 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 2: with the administration's softly, softly approached towards Vladimir Putin, and 208 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 2: also he had views on other foreign policy questions. So 209 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 2: he apparently was the subject of considerable pushback from other 210 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 2: members of the administration, and that was why he was 211 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 2: effectively demoted and given the job of US Ambassador to 212 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 2: the UN, which is a high profile job, but clearly 213 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 2: that was not what he was appointed for. So yes, 214 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 2: he's one of the first casualties. I think the first 215 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 2: of many. I think some people, I mean a lot 216 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 2: of people are speculating how long can the sectory of 217 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 2: defense last? Pete Hegseth. He was also involved in a 218 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 2: second signal chat, which again contravene government regulations about classified communication. 219 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 2: I don't think Waltz will be the end of it. 220 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 2: Mister Trump has always had a bit of an uncomfortable 221 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:09,239 Speaker 2: relationship with his national security advisors. In his first administration, 222 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 2: he got through about three or four, and there is 223 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 2: a you know, mister Trump, I think is uncomfortable with 224 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 2: independent people around him who challenge him. Of course, you 225 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 2: need that for good decision making, and that's why one 226 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 2: is feeling slightly uneasy that if mister Trump continues to 227 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 2: surround himself with cronies or echoes, then we're going to 228 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 2: have some disastrous decisions made. 229 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 4: And remember this, this is Baiden's word. This was a 230 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 4: war that was never going to happen if our president. 231 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 4: This is a horrible, horrible war. And I get to 232 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 4: see shots of soldiers through you know satellite that are 233 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 4: so just so terrible. Five thousand soldiers a week on 234 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 4: average are dying. They're not American soldiers. But I want 235 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 4: to solve the problem Russian soldiers and the Ukrainian soldiers. 236 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 4: And if I can save five thousand souls, I just 237 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 4: love doing it. 238 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 3: How long do you give both countries before you're going 239 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 3: to walk away? 240 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 4: Well, there'll be a time when I will say, Okay, 241 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 4: keep going, keep being stupid. 242 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 1: Well, of course, the other big thing with the US 243 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: at the moment is how it is handling international relations. Hey, notably, 244 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: there's been a lot of back and forth on Ukraine 245 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: and Russia. You know, one minute he's berating Voladimir Zelensky 246 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: in the Oval Office, the next is criticizing Putin for 247 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: holding up peace talks. I mean, how destabilizing is this 248 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: kind of flip flopping and lack of clarity. 249 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 2: It is destabilizing, but it's actually showing the administration to 250 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 2: be very weak, and that is the danger for not 251 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 2: just the United States, but for countries like New Zealand. 252 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 2: The Ukraine conflict, the outcome of that conflict is crucial. 253 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 2: It has big implications for the Indo Pacific. Two of 254 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 2: the biggest backers of Russia's invasion of Ukraine are China 255 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 2: and India. And quite frankly, here we have the most 256 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 2: powerful country in the world led by the Trump. Mister Trump, 257 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 2: who sees himself as a strong leader. And what does 258 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: he do. He coses up to the aggressor that has 259 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 2: he legally invaded a liberal democracy and sides with the 260 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 2: aggressor against the victim of aggression. Through Chinese non sentimental eyes. 261 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 2: That looks like weakness. Yes, he has added, belatedly some 262 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 2: criticisms of mister Putin, but the peace settlement deal that 263 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 2: he's pushing is basically solving all of mister Putin's problems, 264 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 2: and it's based almost it could have been written in 265 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 2: the Kremlin. There does seem to be some reconsideration going 266 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: on now by mister Trump. He has signed a minerals 267 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 2: deal with Selensky's government, and that has, as you indicated, 268 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 2: quite rightly, been some disgruntlement picked up on true social 269 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 2: mister Trump's media channel of Putin. But I think it's 270 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 2: been a very bad start, and he's also split relations 271 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 2: between Europe and the United States. And really you could 272 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,000 Speaker 2: say this about his tariffs as well. But I think 273 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: his foreign policy has at times been incoherent. He you know, 274 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 2: the official rationale for coosing up to mister Putin's dictatorship 275 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 2: is that the United States, what's the form a geopolitical 276 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 2: partnership with Putin or something like that. According to mister Rubio, 277 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: the sector of state in order to peel Russia off 278 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 2: from China. I think that's unrealistic. But putting that to 279 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 2: one side, China will see mister Trump's behavior as possibly 280 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: well almost certainly as weakness, and that will encourage them 281 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 2: to become more assertive in our neck of the woods, 282 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: in the Indo Pacific and possibly in the Pacific Island 283 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 2: Nations region. And certainly it could be expected to up 284 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: the pressure on countries like Taiwan. So that is worrying 285 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 2: ineffectively what mister Trump is not, you know, you're quite 286 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 2: right use the term destabilizing. He's upended eighty years of 287 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:05,199 Speaker 2: American foreign policy, he's effectively he's dismantling what's called the 288 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 2: rules based international order, which most liberal democracies, including our own, 289 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 2: depend on rules are there for the week, not for 290 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 2: the strong. But mister Trump's vision of international relations is 291 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 2: very different from New Zealand's. He sees the world in 292 00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 2: top down terms, a world that's run by great powers, 293 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: with America the greatest power of all, sitting at the 294 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 2: top table and negotiating deals with the likes of Putin 295 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 2: and China. As for the middle powers and the small powers, well, 296 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 2: they will have to go and negotiate bilateral deals with 297 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 2: the United States and basically get what they're accept what 298 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 2: they're offered. So this is a radical break from the past. 299 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 2: It's the most biggest change in the American foreign policy 300 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 2: since nineteen forty six forty seven. And I think New 301 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 2: Zealand will have to speak out at some point because 302 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 2: what America is doing in its foreign policy is actually 303 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 2: directly undermining our national interests. New Zealand, like many small 304 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 2: and middle powers, needs rules. It needs institutions because they provide, 305 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,560 Speaker 2: if you like, a level playing field for small countries 306 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 2: to operate in. And mister Trump seems to be determined 307 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 2: to dispense with that, and you know, it does have 308 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 2: real consequences for US. We trade with one hundred countries 309 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 2: around the world, and I think there's now pressure on 310 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 2: our government and other governments to bypass the United States 311 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 2: and to protect their interest by upholding the free trade system, 312 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: the rules based trade system, which many countries believe in, 313 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: including China as well as the EU as well as 314 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: many other countries. So, you know, I think we are 315 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 2: witnessing not just destabilization, but perhaps a sort of fork 316 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 2: in the road moment where America is parting company with 317 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 2: many of its traditional allies and we're seeing an international 318 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 2: realignment as a result. 319 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert. 320 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: Thank you. 321 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 322 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 323 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is 324 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 1: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 325 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 1: our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front 326 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 327 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.