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Speaker 1: Very exciting new insight into our retail sector that might

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Speaker 1: surprise you. One, in a world of online, we still

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Speaker 1: love the bricks and mortar. And two, despite the so

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Speaker 1: called cost of living crisis, we need about two undred

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Speaker 1: and fifty thousand square meters of new retail space over

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Speaker 1: the next five years. This all comes out of the

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Speaker 1: Retail Property Insights Report from JLL and their head of

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Speaker 1: Research and strategic Consulting is Chris Drubble, who is with us. Chris,

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Speaker 1: very good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah morning, makee.

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Speaker 1: It sounds bullish, is that fair?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, I mean the way that we've TechEd this

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Speaker 2: research has looked at basically the ratio between how much

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Speaker 2: retail space we currently have and the population at the

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Speaker 2: moment as well. And so when you look at that ratio,

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Speaker 2: which is around about zero point five square meters per

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Speaker 2: person across the country, then when you look at the

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Speaker 2: population growth at New Zealand's going to go through over

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Speaker 2: the next sort of five years, we can understand it.

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Speaker 2: To keep that ratio, we just need more space.

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Speaker 1: How solid are you on the population growth, because I'm

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Speaker 1: very fearful at the moment there are too many people

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Speaker 1: leaving and not enough people arriving. Therefore, the numbers don't

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Speaker 1: quite stack up to what you're suggesting they may do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, this's always going to be the issues around forecasts,

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Speaker 2: but I think one of the key things at the

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Speaker 2: moment is we've sort of seen that start to turn

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Speaker 2: in the net migration numbers. There's always a lot of

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Speaker 2: people that want to live in this great country. So

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Speaker 2: from that side of it, well, we take our forecasts

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Speaker 2: relatively conservatively, and so from that perspective, we think that

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Speaker 2: this is a pretty good number. Is it all in Auckland, No,

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Speaker 2: across the country. So that's one of the other key

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Speaker 2: things at the moment. And so we are seeing a

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Speaker 2: bit of development across the country, which is positive. That

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Speaker 2: will help us start I guess eat away at some

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Speaker 2: of this growth forecast that was required in retail floor space,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, will need to be a lot of that

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Speaker 2: around in Auckland. They've got around about a third of

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Speaker 2: all the retails supply across the country. So from that perspective,

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Speaker 2: it is a significant amount that will probably happen in Auckland.

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Speaker 1: What is two hundred and fifty thousand square meters? I

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Speaker 1: mean literally, what is that? Like a Westfield. Is that

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Speaker 1: seven Westfields?

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Speaker 2: Is it?

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Speaker 1: Fourteen cost Cos and a Smooth and Cowley?

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Speaker 2: What is it? Yes, I guess you could look at

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Speaker 2: a Westfield new market that's around about eight thousand sort

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Speaker 2: of square meters, So you could look at that and say, well,

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Speaker 2: look we need sort of three or four of those

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Speaker 2: sorts of types of develop It's obviously not in the

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Speaker 2: one location, but yet spread across the country in different

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Speaker 2: types of format, because that's one of other things. From

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Speaker 2: a consumer perspective, it's the variety of retail that is

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Speaker 2: interesting in attracting them into the shops.

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Speaker 1: I've argued long and hard for years that when everyone

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Speaker 1: got on board, they are you online in the future

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Speaker 1: and you'll never have shops left. That that's not true.

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Speaker 1: What has anything happened or is it just you know,

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Speaker 1: bricks and mortar works for people, always has, always will.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, I think from what we sort of see,

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Speaker 2: you know in New Zealand, Post numbers show that online

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Speaker 2: retail spends in New Zealand is around eleven percent, the

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Speaker 2: UK is around twenty seven percent. So there's deffinitely differences

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Speaker 2: across the world, but from outside of it, yet New

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Speaker 2: Zealanders they love that physical experience that they get when

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Speaker 2: they get into the retail premises. So from that perspective,

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Speaker 2: it's that instore retail experience that's really important, and when

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Speaker 2: retailers are doing that right, that's where they're starting to

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Speaker 2: win good stuff.

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Speaker 1: Chris, I appreciate the inside Crystable, who is the JLLL

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Speaker 1: Head of Research and Strategic Consulting.

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