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Speaker 1: Here to wake us up. Jack Tame, host of Saturday

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Speaker 1: Mornings and Q and a Jack Good evening.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, Ryan, you should have stuck with the Argentina question. Honestly,

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Speaker 2: I want to know more about it.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know, very cool and he got to

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Speaker 1: meet him and he went to his office and all

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Speaker 1: that stuff. Hey, fellow, ridings with us as well. I'm

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Speaker 1: do partners feel good evening.

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Speaker 3: There you go, mate, And and I've had a few

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Speaker 3: decent sized stakes in Argentina. They are just the best

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Speaker 3: steaks outside of New Zealand. Of course I'm a very

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Speaker 3: law man, but the stakes in Argentina, havel, I'm about

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Speaker 3: mid night sess the nature of the beast. But fantastic

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Speaker 3: place Argentina. I agree with David on that's a great spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, beautiful. Right, let's talk about that. So we've got

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Speaker 1: an election date. Either of you raise your hand, will

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Speaker 1: say your name, willing to take a punt on the outcome?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there we go. The two things that you've got

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Speaker 3: to worry about with election of your government or the

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Speaker 3: opporitiontional one is is the economic recovery that's currently going

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Speaker 3: on going to be widely felt by New Zealanders right

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Speaker 3: by November, and that's what was just talking about them

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Speaker 3: and ago he put it more nicely than that, but

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Speaker 3: he's really saying the government wants some time to see

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Speaker 3: that this government recovery is going to go on. The

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Speaker 3: second thing is does the government get to own it?

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Speaker 3: Does the government get to say to New Zealand as well,

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Speaker 3: we help that, we help that come and as a result,

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Speaker 3: you should vote for us. It's not the other mob,

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Speaker 3: because they'll up your taxes or whatever the lines they use.

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Speaker 3: And that's where you've got to make a guest. Now

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Speaker 3: I'm going to make a view and where we're sitty

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Speaker 3: taking this view in our business. It's most likely that

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Speaker 3: there does actually a care in that the government's re

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Speaker 3: elected in some form, but g it's a close run thing.

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Speaker 3: And bear in mind, even if the government is reelected,

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Speaker 3: it won't be the same government. Even if Luxelon is

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister in November, it will be a different

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Speaker 3: form of government. There will be a different mix of

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Speaker 3: the of the party. So I think I think at

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Speaker 3: this moment it's a close run thing, but it's most

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Speaker 3: likely I think the government gets re elected, but GEO

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Speaker 3: could easily come up with another proposition just the opposite Jack.

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Speaker 2: I think, as it stands today, Ryan, I think it's likelier,

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Speaker 2: much likelier, that some version of the current government or

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Speaker 2: something adjacent to the current government is returned. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I put a number on it, but I

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Speaker 2: think that's much more likely than a labor leed government

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Speaker 2: being in government next.

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Speaker 3: I think there are.

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Speaker 2: Two big risks I think about when I think about

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Speaker 2: the current government, Christopher Luxen and Precipitns the opposition. On

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Speaker 2: the opposition side, I think by the timing of the

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Speaker 2: economic recovery, there is a risk that seven or eight

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Speaker 2: months from now they are going to be arguing to

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Speaker 2: New Zealanders about how bad the economy has been rather

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Speaker 2: than what people are actually experiencing. And that if you're

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Speaker 2: trying to say, hey, stuff's really really bad and people

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Speaker 2: are actually feeling a little bit of optimism in the

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Speaker 2: economy for the first time in a couple of years,

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Speaker 2: that's a very tricky place to.

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Speaker 3: Be as an opposition.

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Speaker 2: And I think on the government side of things, a

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Speaker 2: black Swan event like is it totally incomprehensible that we

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Speaker 2: could see the US move against Greenland, that we could

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Speaker 2: see action in the Taiwan Straate or something like that

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Speaker 2: over the next nine months. That might once again put

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Speaker 2: a massive spanner in the works of the global economy,

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Speaker 2: which I think would play against the current government there.

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Speaker 1: Because I was thinking about that this morning.

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Speaker 3: Jack.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that would play against the government or

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Speaker 1: do you think, as was the case in Australia with

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Speaker 1: the terrorists, actually it could play to the favor of

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Speaker 1: let's stick with the you know, the devil we know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I don't know. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 2: that Christopher Luxen has necessarily connected with people in a

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Speaker 2: way that he would have hoped he has over you know,

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Speaker 2: over the last couple of years. Would that mean that

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Speaker 2: people turfed out the current government and appointed labor and

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Speaker 2: a glimb of in a moment of you know, topsy

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Speaker 2: turbinus internationally, I don't know. It also depends on where

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Speaker 2: the Americans actually are, Like, would we be positioned against

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Speaker 2: the Americans in a black spot? It's one event, who knows, honestly,

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Speaker 2: it's just like putting your finger in the air and guessing.

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Speaker 3: But that the US midterms take place, the US midterm elections,

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Speaker 3: which could lose Trump quite a lot of power on

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Speaker 3: the US take place November the third, four days before

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Speaker 3: the election, so there's going to be a lot of

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Speaker 3: hoop plower around that, a lot of instability clearly in

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Speaker 3: the US domestic political seeing the most consequential elections of

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Speaker 3: the year. I start that. So to Jack's point, I

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Speaker 3: agree with them that these risks are a risk for

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Speaker 3: the government just as much as they are for the opposition.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, which means vote on election day, don't go early

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Speaker 1: because you need all the information you can get. Jack

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Speaker 1: Team and Phill O'Riley on the huddle tonight, guys, Jack

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Speaker 1: will start with you on the social media ban under sixteens.

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Speaker 1: There's this poll from the Post that says sixty five

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Speaker 1: percent would support it. What do you reckon?

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm honestly surprised it's not higher Asian womens of

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Speaker 2: the poll. I was like, oh, we're under sixteen allowed

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Speaker 2: to vote on this as well.

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Speaker 3: I reckon.

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Speaker 2: I reckon in a couple of years that this is

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Speaker 2: this is going to be the norm among countries that

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Speaker 2: we usually compare ourselves with. I reckon, like a lot

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Speaker 2: of OCD countries are not OCD as opposed to OCD.

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Speaker 2: I think you're going to follow this pass, not including

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Speaker 2: the United States for obvious reasons. But I think unless

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Speaker 2: as a real catastrophe in Australia, this is going to

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Speaker 2: become the kind of mainstream policy of a lot of

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Speaker 2: interrist parties.

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Speaker 3: Around the world.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, how to argue with that?

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Speaker 3: Fell, Yeah, I think and I agree with that. What

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Speaker 3: was interesting about that survey result was that the majority

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Speaker 3: of eighteen year olds thought that was a good idea.

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Speaker 3: Interesting a. So even those who were very close to

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Speaker 3: being part of the band, even a majority of them

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Speaker 3: said it's a good idea to do this. And Jack Swright,

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Speaker 3: I think what's happening in Australia. It's imperfect. I see

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Speaker 3: something like four million accounts have been closed down and

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Speaker 3: some of the complaints are all the kids had to

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Speaker 3: stop on Whatsapple one of those one of those message

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Speaker 3: ups that's not yet been banned for them. And so

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Speaker 3: that the point is that yes, it's imperfect, and yes

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Speaker 3: to be all sorts of work arounds and people screwing

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Speaker 3: the scrum if you like, and getting online with different

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Speaker 3: personas that's on, And that goes back to parental responsibility.

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Speaker 3: Those parents should really be helping this because there's no

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Speaker 3: question that the evidence is in on this. Social media

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Speaker 3: is harmful to those to young people in many many,

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Speaker 3: not all, but in many, many circumstances. And I agree

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Speaker 3: with Jack. I think the Australian experience imperfect. Though it is,

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Speaker 3: I think will be copied and is being copied. You're

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Speaker 3: hearing it being talked about in the UK and elsewhere

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Speaker 3: it so I think the government will announce it and

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Speaker 3: I think it'll be very popular amongst their potential voters.

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Speaker 1: It's one of those things where people know it's bad

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Speaker 1: for them, but they can't stop it, and they almost

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Speaker 1: want someone else to tell them that they can't.

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Speaker 3: You know, there is there is like a.

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Speaker 2: Speech stuff there. There are some pre speech you know,

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Speaker 2: concerns and some personal liberty concerns. I'm sure if you

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Speaker 2: asked David Seymore he would take a very different position

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Speaker 2: to a lot of other people about the band. But

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is the good thing about having Australia right.

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Speaker 2: We can we can watch very closely how things go

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Speaker 2: over the next six months or so. It might be

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Speaker 2: you know, a little early for really detailed data as

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Speaker 2: the overall effects on kids, but we've got a perfect

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Speaker 2: test case.

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Speaker 1: Just over the day, Jack Tame Pillow Riley on the Huddle.

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Speaker 2: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to

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Speaker 2: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow

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