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Speaker 1: So the phone call that the world has been waiting

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Speaker 1: for has taken place. In act, it's just for this

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Speaker 1: we have no details about what was discussed, if anything

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Speaker 1: was agreed, We know nothing at this point. But we

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Speaker 1: do know that Donald Trump, the United States President, put

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Speaker 1: forward his cease fireplay for Ukraine to his Russian counterpart

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Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin, and up until this point, Trump has

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Speaker 1: been very bullish about getting a deal. But Putin has

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Speaker 1: also said he has quote serious questions going into the discussion.

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Speaker 1: So to talk about this add more, I'm joined by

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Speaker 1: Otaga University International Relations professor Robert Patman. Hello, Robert, Oh, Hello.

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Speaker 2: Robert, Hello, good morning.

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Speaker 1: How are you very good? All right? Has Trump been

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Speaker 1: just a little bit too bullish and confident thinking that

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Speaker 1: Putin would just roll over.

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Speaker 2: On the positive certainly contrasts with that of Marco Rubio

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Speaker 2: and also other officials in the administration have been much

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Speaker 2: more mentioned. Mister Trump said had very positive expectations of

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Speaker 2: the phone call. We'll just have to see whether those

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Speaker 2: expectations translate into concrete results.

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Speaker 1: Yes, he easily intimidated Ukraine, but Vedimiir Putin's another thing altogether.

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Speaker 2: Well, he hasn't really put much pressure on mister Putin.

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Speaker 2: All the concessions have been from the victim of an invasion,

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Speaker 2: which is Ukraine, and he's already preemptively given away bulb

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Speaker 2: in concessions. To mister Putin, he said that he doesn't

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Speaker 2: envisage Ukraine joining NATO, which was a key demand of Russia.

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Speaker 2: And he also says that Ukraine will have to make

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Speaker 2: territorial concessions, it will have to give up some of

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Speaker 2: the land stolen by Russia.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, Donald Trump always said this could be

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Speaker 1: resolved in wigs criticism.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's clearly not true. And the other thing here

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Speaker 2: is mister Trump may not be in a position to

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Speaker 2: deliver any peace even if he gets agreement with mister Putin,

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Speaker 2: because ultimately it's the victim of the invasion, Ukraine that

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Speaker 2: must agree to this. And they're adamant that that. You know,

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Speaker 2: they've lost too many people as a result of Russia's

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Speaker 2: incursion and invasion to settle for anything less than the

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Speaker 2: principles that everyone in international relations recognizes, where she's full

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Speaker 2: territory integrity and restoration of state sovereignty.

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Speaker 1: What did you make of the faith that the Baltic

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Speaker 1: States want Land minds back. There's rising tension.

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Speaker 2: Yes, well, you see many countries in Europe An increasing

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Speaker 2: Germany as well, believe that Ukraine is not This war

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Speaker 2: is not just about Ukraine. It's about stopping mister Putin

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Speaker 2: from his expansionist vision of Russian sphere of influence in Europe,

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Speaker 2: and many countries fear that if mister Trump hands mister

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Speaker 2: Putin part of Ukraine as part of a peace deal,

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Speaker 2: then that will have ramifications for other countries. Many are convinced,

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Speaker 2: as your commentation just said, that mister Poutin won't stop

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Speaker 2: with Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: All right, to the other issue, Wins Peters is meeting

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Speaker 1: Marco Rubio in about ten minus time to talk stuff.

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Speaker 1: I suppose he's really going to be talking town rather

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Speaker 1: than peace.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and obviously we'll be looking to get some sort

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Speaker 2: of exemption from the tariffs that are being are going

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Speaker 2: to be announced I think in early April against most

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Speaker 2: countries that export to the United States. I'm not confident

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Speaker 2: we will get an exemption because Australia wish is closest

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Speaker 2: to the United States than ourselves. It's already been indicated

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Speaker 2: to them. They won't be getting an exemption. On Australian

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Speaker 2: exports for an Aminimum steel, and that could have been

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Speaker 2: greeted by considerable disappointment by the Australian government. The other

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Speaker 2: thing here is, even if we do get an exemption,

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Speaker 2: the resulting trade war that's breaking out will affect New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: We trade more than one hundred countries around the world,

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Speaker 2: so we may get some bilateral relief, but we'll probably

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Speaker 2: have some reverses on the multilateral front.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And of course we're worried. Winston's very worried about

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Speaker 1: security in the Pacific, So will he push.

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Speaker 2: That or yes? Well, I think mister Peters, to his credit,

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Speaker 2: has consistently the US should be more engaged in the Pacific,

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Speaker 2: and that message finally seemed to register with the Biden administration,

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Speaker 2: who stepped up their engagement in the region. However, the

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Speaker 2: Trump administration with their disestablishment of USIAID and also their

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Speaker 2: withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord. Remember, for most Pacific

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Speaker 2: island nation states, climate changes their number one national security concern.

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Speaker 2: Those issues raise questions about how committed is the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration to the fate and the well being of the

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Speaker 2: Pacific island nations, and that in turn, means that China

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Speaker 2: may have much greater scope to extend its influence than previously.

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Speaker 1: Yep tiz Orgo. What a great time to be an

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Speaker 1: international relations professor, Robert Patman. I thank you for your time.

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