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Speaker 1: It's a final ocr day for the year. Economists expecting

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Speaker 1: the reserve banks cut by twenty five basis points to

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Speaker 1: two point twenty five, leaving the door open for further

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Speaker 1: easing if the economy continues to stumble. Nick toughly asbchev

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Speaker 1: economists with us this morning. Nick, Good morning, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what regional councils do?

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Speaker 2: Nick, Well, I'm sure they sort of look after the

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Speaker 2: water and the environmental standards, but I don't know that

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Speaker 2: they do any oci decision.

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Speaker 1: No, they don't, And which is what you're here to

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Speaker 1: talk about. We're expecting a quarter point cut, a quarter

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Speaker 1: percent cutless that the today later today. What are we

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Speaker 1: expecting beyond that?

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Speaker 2: It's really going to be very much a focus on

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Speaker 2: what is the Reserve Bank judging is the likelihood that

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Speaker 2: it needs to cut further, and we expect it will

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Speaker 2: keep the door wide open to taking further action if

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Speaker 2: it needs to next year. So it's just got that

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Speaker 2: rock and a hard place at the moment where it

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Speaker 2: looks like the economy is starting to turn up, but

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Speaker 2: it's going to be away on holiday for three months

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Speaker 2: and it will be just wanting to use that period

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Speaker 2: to really gauge whether we are getting enough of a

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Speaker 2: recovery to come through to stop inflation calling too far

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Speaker 2: in the longer term?

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Speaker 1: Do you agree Nick with kvy Bank. They said that

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Speaker 1: we should have gone lower sooner and we're now basically

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Speaker 1: having to do a mop up job.

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Speaker 2: Look, there's a degree of that in the sense that

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank paused earlier on this year ended up

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Speaker 2: having to restart and even cut slightly more aggressively. But look,

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Speaker 2: it has been a challenging time because, let's face it,

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Speaker 2: inflation has been sticky, and the Reserve Bank was steering

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Speaker 2: inflation picking back up which it has to three percent,

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Speaker 2: and worrying that it may hold up there again with

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Speaker 2: those memories of seven percent inflation probably still steer it

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Speaker 2: into our brains a bit as well.

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Speaker 1: If you've got a mortgage, our longer term fixed rates

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Speaker 1: already bottoming out.

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Speaker 2: Do we think they are getting close to that? And

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Speaker 2: lot that's where I think the messages today are going

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Speaker 2: to be quite a call for that, because as long

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Speaker 2: as the Reserve Bank keeps the door open that it

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Speaker 2: could cut next year if it needs to, that's going

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Speaker 2: to help keep the the wholesale rates and the mortgage

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Speaker 2: rates two mortgage rates contained. You know, if they give

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Speaker 2: a signal say hey, look we think we've done the job.

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Speaker 2: You know, the's a rest that you do start to

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Speaker 2: see rates sort of pop pop back up a little bit.

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Speaker 2: So look, we're getting near the end of the declines

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Speaker 2: and mortgage rates, so sort of it's a time to

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Speaker 2: start sort of thinking about what the trade offs are

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Speaker 2: for people about you know, whether they do look to

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Speaker 2: fix longer or not, whether that's something that's in their interests.

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Speaker 1: Appreciate your time, Nick Tuffley, asb chief Economists, were expecting

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Speaker 1: that decision from the Reserve Bank south Tonoon.

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Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge.

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Speaker 1: Listen live to news Talks. It'd be from five am weekdays,

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