WEBVTT - The one word shaping this year's political battle for the Beehive 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:06.000 Kyota. 0:00:06.120 --> 0:00:09.280 I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:16.560 daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New Zealand 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:18.760 Politics kicks off this year. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:22.599 Under the shadow of a looming general election. From a 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:24.640 continued cost of living. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:29.720 Crisis and economic recovery to treaty debates and tensions between 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:33.880 coalition partners, this year will see a mixed bag from 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:37.000 the Beehive. It comes off the back of a major 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:40.840 push for economic growth in twenty twenty five, with Roma 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:44.520 reform and fast track approvals dominating headlines. 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.120 But will all of that pay off today? 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.880 On the Front Page, we dive into where each party stands, 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.600 what they've announced us far, and what the election campaign 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.120 could bring us with Newstalk z. 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:05.600 B political reporter Ethan Griffin. Ethan, as we enter the 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.440 new year, what do you see as I guess the defining. 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:13.560 Issues that we're going to be voting on come election 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.080 twenty twenty six and. 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.920 One word, it's the economy, right, Everything relies on the economy. 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:22.319 It's the biggest issue for voters. Voters vote on how 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.959 they're feeling in their back pocket. Now, we haven't seen 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.160 much growth in the last two years at all, we're 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:31.520 expecting moderate growth in the next twelve months. The question 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:36.039 really will be how much growth do we see. National's 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:39.120 fortunes rely pretty much entirely on the economy. It's not 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.640 a be all and end all. They will seriously be 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.360 hoping that we see some growth this year. Also expect 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.039 health to be a bit of a focus as well. 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.400 The IPSOS Issues Monitor, which sort of records the biggest 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.880 issues for New Zealand voters, is pretty clear right now 0:01:52.920 --> 0:01:55.840 that health is the second biggest issue. It was an 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:59.280 issued last campaign as well. National and Labor have spent 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.680 a lot of time talking about it over the last 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.960 two years, so expect that to be on the agenda 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.240 as well. I'd also keep it eye on superannuation this year. 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:10.560 There's been a bit of talk from Labor and New 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:14.280 Zealand First on that. Both have pretty strong policies on 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.760 the issue of super annuation. Expect the policy from National 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:20.200 on that as well. And one more to keep an 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:23.480 eye on immigration and migration. We've had some pretty high 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:25.920 rivals over the term. Expect New Zealand First to be 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.320 talking a bit about that. But a bigger issue than 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.600 that is of course the New Zealand is moving offshore migration, 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.200 particularly the key he is heading over the ditch, so 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.560 expect Labor to focus a lot on that as well. 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.839 We mentioned the health of our economy there. 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.640 Of course, it's obviously a major point of contention heading 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:45.040 into the election. Do you reckon national will be in 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.960 trouble even if it's a moderate shift When it comes 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:51.080 to the economy. How many eggs have they put in 0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:52.280 the economy basket? 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:54.680 Pretty much all of them. I think it's fair to 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:56.520 say they will be that this will be the number 0:02:56.560 --> 0:02:58.640 one concern on the ninth floor right now. What level 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:00.679 of growth are we going to see this? And as 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.840 I said, I think it's clear that we will see 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:05.720 some and we desperately need it. The question will be 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:08.840 how much do we see. They will be hoping it's 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:10.839 a lot. Will it be enough to get them over 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.359 the line. I'm not ready to make predictions on that, 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.480 but the economy is undoubtedly going to be the bigest 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:17.799 issue of the campaign. 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:20.560 And of course we'll look for Ford to budget twenty 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:21.440 twenty six. 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:25.000 Hopefully it will be a bit sexier than last. 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.560 Year's potentially, but then again, the government's broke, They've got 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.239 no money, there's no surplus in the next five years 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:33.920 in the foreseeable future. This is a government who is 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:38.760 essentially relying on cutting parts of the state and audition 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:41.360 out money to other areas, which they've done with things 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:45.080 like farmac cancer, Droon's health and things like that. It's 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.040 unlikely to be a budget where lots of lollies are 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.480 thrown around, but you never know, do you, Reckon. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:53.880 Parties will start politicking straight off the back of the 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:55.240 summer holidays. 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.360 Yeah, I think so. Expect in the next two weeks 0:03:58.400 --> 0:04:02.600 some major set piece speetures by both leaders. Chris Luxon 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:05.760 is planning a State of the Nation's speech which you 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:07.520 can expect to hear at some point in the next 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:10.120 few weeks. I have no doubt that Precipians will follow 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:13.040 with some sort of rally as well. Both parties will 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:16.960 be getting into January with their away caucuses, their caucus 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.599 retreats where they all go away to various parts of 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.400 the country and have their little meetings and their little 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:25.440 huis in those places and then come together ready to 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:28.800 fight at election campaign. Of course, you've got Vatima and 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:31.719 Waitangi coming up as well the start of the political year, 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:33.840 and that will make things even more explosive. 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:37.880 What pressure points do you see arising from the current 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:41.599 coalition government as they're more than likely straight off the 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.520 back going to be going their separate ways and trying 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.279 really hard to differentiate themselves from the others. 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:50.520 Yeah, well this is kind of uncharted territory right this 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:54.840 is the first three party coalition government. I think it's 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:56.839 fair to say, looking at the polls right now, the 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.600 parties have actually done an all right job differentiating themselves 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:02.200 throughout the term. I think the rules of MMP have 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.240 slightly been shifted. I think we've seen a lot more 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:07.560 disagreement this term than we have seen in any previous 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.119 MMP governments, and I think the polls reflect that. Both 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:13.719 AT and New Zealand first sitting quite comfortably there in 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.479 the polls. On Winston, we're seeing it already. I sat 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:19.840 down with him shortly before Christmas and he was criticizing 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:23.279 the National's talk on the economy and the lack of 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:26.080 action that we're seeing. He's also been prinicle of Acts 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:30.520 Regulatory Standards Bill as well. For David Seymour, the obvious 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:32.880 one there is race relations. I also sat down with 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:35.520 him just before Christmas and he says, that's a drum 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:37.719 that he's going to continue to bang. It's a very 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.840 important issue for the ACT Party, so expect that to 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.760 be part of the election campaign as well. In terms 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.719 of it heating up this year it's an election year, 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.599 it undoubtedly will. But I think it's also worth noting 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.440 here that all three parties have done a fairly decent 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.040 job of differentiating themselves throughout the term, so expect to 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.280 see a little bit more of that this year. It's 0:05:58.400 --> 0:05:59.560 naturally an election year. 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:04.760 Are you surprised that David Seymour will continue to bang 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:05.680 on that drum? 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:09.200 Not hugely. It's a very important issue for him and 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:12.479 clearly a very important issue for his voter base. I 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:14.640 think of all the policies that he's come up with 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.480 in the last how long he's been in politics ten 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:20.480 years now, even euthanasia, I don't think God has much 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:24.000 attention for him. It was successful for him, it didn't pass, 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.080 he got lots of headlines out of it, his supporters 0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:29.000 love it. I would imagine it's going to be an 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.960 issue that he continues to explore come election. 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:40.440 Yet, how would you describe twenty twenty five for the 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.599 ACT Party in a word or two tough. 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:47.360 It was tough for everybody, but towards the end that 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.080 just started to feel like we were turning a corner. 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:53.320 And I hope a people come back into twenty twenty six, 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.000 that momentum will continue for the whole country. And of 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:58.800 course I'd be lying if I didn't say I hope 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:00.320 it continues for act of course. 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:01.280 Okay, well said. 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:06.919 In terms of minor parties, Ethan, do you think any 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:10.640 A well placed to really bring it back home in 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:14.200 twenty twenty six and have a kind of breakout moment. 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:18.760 I suppose I can't see any breakout moments immediately right now. 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:20.800 What I can see is a breakaway moment, and that's 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.400 obviously to Party Mardi. They had a disastrous year last year, 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.480 particularly the last few months. They had six MP's coming 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.520 into parliament this term. They've now got four. Two of 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:33.520 them have been booted, Mariamno Cupa Kingi from the north 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.520 and Tucke to Ferris from the south, both quite popular MPs, 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:40.520 particularly Maririu and Menno up north. Expect to see potentially 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:44.120 those who run as independents or a new breakaway Maori 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.680 movement begin. It will also be really interesting to see 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:50.680 how the party sits with its own supporter base in 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.600 terms of those people that support Muddey and Meno and 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:58.200 Target and are feeling disillusioned with the party. Looking also 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.440 at the Greens, they've been bouncing around prey much we 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.560 you'd expect them to in the polls, but it's interesting 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.520 of all the party leaders. Zoe Swarbrick, co Leader of 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:09.000 the Green Party, this is her first election as a 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.080 leader of a party, sort of inted interesting to watch 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.400 her and see how she performs this year as well. 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.600 It's actually easy to forget that it's her first election 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:21.160 as leader because she has always been a prominent presence 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:24.600 within the Green Party. Do you reckon that that's going 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:26.960 to change anything for her or is she just going 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:27.480 to track on. 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.480 She's a popular politician and she connects with a lot 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:33.880 of different people. It'll be really interesting to see her 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:37.280 traveling the length of the country and campaigning. Of course, 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:40.480 she's also got her own seat, all Concentral, which she'll 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.200 be campaigning in as well, so it'll be very interesting 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:45.760 to see how she balances that, and more broadly for 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.720 the Greens, which electorates they keep as well. Of course 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:51.880 you've got Tamitha Paul here in Wellington Central. Those boundaries 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.720 have changed, they might not be as favorable to the Greens. 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.480 And then you've got Julianne Genta and Wellington Bays the 0:08:57.600 --> 0:09:00.760 renamed Wellington Bays electorate, and it looks like from boundary 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.480 changes that would benefit her as well. So the Greens 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:05.199 could be in for quite a good year. 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:09.679 Know that the Opportunities Party has a new leader. Do 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:11.240 you reckon they're going to make any waves. 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.880 They have a new leader, right, They've got some new blood. 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.720 They'll probably quite energized. I know that they've still sort 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:18.840 of been around and polls around that sort of one 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.280 to two percent area, I think, outside of twenty seventeen 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.360 where Gareth Morgan were leading them. This election is probably 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.000 their best shot at getting into Parliament. That's not saying 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.040 they will. That is a wild call to say that. 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.480 What I do think and see in the political realm 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.120 right now is the Purple vote is down. The Purple 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.040 vote is very very small. People are looking for alternatives. 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.720 Some people may be looking at the Opportunities Party and 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.280 thinking this could be a good alternative. It's really going 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:46.520 to depend what policies they come out with. How much 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:49.400 coverage they get and where the voters see them as 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:53.120 a viable alternative to the parties already in parliament and whatever. 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:53.520 I mean. 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:55.520 We spoke about this a little bit on the podcast 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:59.920 last year, this idea potentially of a breakoff another Moldi 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:03.000 led party. Of course, you mentioned those two that have 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.040 been expelled. What are the likelihoods or is there any 0:10:06.040 --> 0:10:08.800 whisperings around Parliament that that could actually happen or will 0:10:08.840 --> 0:10:10.600 they just likely run as independence. 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:14.480 It's really hard to say. It's going to depend on 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.480 them talking to their people and the support that they're 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.000 engaging for themselves. I think it is interesting that in 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.960 the High Court action we saw last year where Maniammino 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:27.040 Kapakingi challenged the Mardi Party around her expulsion, that was 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:31.240 just her, It wasn't both of them taking that compactionion together. 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:33.120 So I'm not sure how much we read into that 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.280 in terms of how they are engaging with each other. 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.040 If they could form their own movement or runners independents. 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.120 It's also very possible one of them might drop out 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:41.760 and choose not to run and the other one does. 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:43.760 I guess it's really a wedding. 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.120 Game and remind us of a few election promises that 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:48.160 we've already heard from thus far. 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.680 Yeah, it's actually been very light so far. To Labor, 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:54.440 we've obviously had their capital gains tax policy, a twenty 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:59.000 eight percent flat capital gains tax on investment properties, not 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:02.520 the family home, not yes, and not the farm. Then 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:04.920 they've got their Future Fund, which essentially is taking the 0:11:04.920 --> 0:11:08.240 dividends from stat Own Enterpris's assets, chucking them into a 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.760 little investment kitty and waiting thirty years to start pulling 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.280 money out of that. And obviously they want to get 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:16.320 rid of the Regulatory Standards Act in their first one 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.800 hundred days as well. That's pretty much at the Labor 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.040 the national they want to bring, can we say, the 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:25.160 contributions from three percent to six percent by twenty thirty two. 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:28.680 I imagine there would be some broad cross party support 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:31.880 for a policy like that. Obviously, they are the major 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.240 party of government, so expect to hear much more from 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:35.719 them as well. 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:39.040 Is it surprising this early on not to have, you know, 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.160 announced anything. 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:45.120 More potentially from Labour's perspective, Yes, they've had two years 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.600 in opposition now they've had the same leadership, so they 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.760 haven't sort of they've had to sort of get used 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.160 to opposition, but they haven't had to get used to 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.720 a whole new leadership team. You would think they would 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.280 be bubbling away on the background on some policy. I'm 0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.240 sure they have and it will come to the four 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:02.439 this year, but you'd probably expect more from Labor at 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.680 this point in the term. In terms of the government, 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.160 I think it's fair to say they've been focused on governing. 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:09.800 They release policies all the time, policies that the government 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.480 progresses with. It'll be very interesting to see of the 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.440 three parties of government what they bring to an election campaign. 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.920 Well, perhaps Labor hasn't needed to. 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.480 How have the poles been looking at that at the 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:21.840 last half of last year? 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.319 And this is the really interesting thing, right, the poles 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:27.640 are at nice edge territory. There were forty seven poles 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:30.120 conducted last year. I went back and had a lock. 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:32.839 Labor was leading in twenty two of them. National was 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:35.560 leading in twenty five of them. So it is really 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.319 split down the middle there. Now, those are various poles, 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.280 different methodology, different companies, so take it all with a 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.800 grain of salt. Also have to make the point that 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:46.439 the government was leading in most of them. While Labor 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:50.160 was the largest party. If things could stay the same, 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.600 we could realistically see some of the weakest purple vote 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.520 in an MP right. That's the red and the blue 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.880 vote coming together. They are at record lows right now, 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.040 and the minor parties are in very very strong positions. 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:06.360 It'll be interesting to see a Disney consolidation as the 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:09.040 year goes on, but right now the polls are in 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:12.000 very much Nithe Edge territory. 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.240 I've still got a lot of energy for this job. 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.240 I only took over about eight months before the election. 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.200 I had eight months as Prime Minister, and you know 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.080 I said there as soon as I took over from Gacinda, 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:28.920 I want Labor to get back to focusing on what 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.560 the Labor Party is all about. Jobs, health homes, you know, 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.400 making sure we're raising living standards for all New Zealanders, 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.400 focusing on the things that unite New Zealanders rather than 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.560 the things that divide us apart, making sure that we 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:45.120 we're dealing with controversial and tricky areas like the Treaty 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:47.760 for example, that we're slowing down a bit and we're 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.560 bringing people with us. We're not you know, people don't 0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.600 feel like a whole lot's happening that they don't know 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.600 about and they're mistrustful of their You know, I started 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.320 that work when I became Prime Minister and then, you know, 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.679 I still think that's that the Labor Party needs to do. 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.080 I think we need to make sure that we're there 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:05.600 for the people who we represent. 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.080 And in terms of all of the party leaders, I 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.720 know that there were a few questions swirling around last year. 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:17.560 Do you Reckon Hopkins will continue through to the election. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.080 I know he's told us he will. 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.560 I think it's I think it's likely Labor are in 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.960 a good position right now. The only way you could 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:27.200 see him falling out of that job as if things 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.920 get really dire for the Labor Party. And there's a 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:34.160 fun fact here, Actually, this is the first time ever 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.080 if both lead to stand their job, the first time 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.040 ever under MMP that two leaders had fought an election 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.600 twice in a row. The last time that happened was 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:45.600 before an MP in nineteen ninety three with Jim Vulger 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.240 and Mike Moore. And this is where it gets interesting. 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:52.240 In nineteen ninety Bulger smashed Mike mooreter win his first 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.440 term in office. Three years later, more came within one 0:14:55.520 --> 0:15:00.640 seat of winning against Jim Vulger. So it doesn't repeat, 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.960 but it may give us an indication of how tight 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:04.120 this election could be. 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.320 And when those numbers become clearer. 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:10.280 I mean, I know that Labor and Tipati, Maori and 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:14.160 the Greens have all kind of kept a separate from themselves, 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:18.080 and I suspect the coalition government parties will do the 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:21.320 same coming into the year. When do you expect them 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:23.160 to kind of merge together? 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.240 I suppose I think. 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:28.240 Throughout the year all we're going to see is them 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.840 sort of come apart a little bit more. It's fairly 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.520 clear who the preferred partners are, right, Green's work with Labor, 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:37.120 the Maori Party want to work with the Left Actors 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.720 very much. Act would work with National. It's as simple 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:44.960 really as that. But there is differentiation there. The parties 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.360 have different policies. I imagine as we head towards election day, 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:52.800 those differentiations are going to be much more clear. It's 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:54.920 only after the election that they'll start to come together 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.920 and negotiate either side depending on where they sit, and 0:15:57.960 --> 0:15:59.240 then we'll get a result after that. 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.800 And you match mentioned Ratna and why Tongey. 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:07.160 Of course, before the unofficial kicking off of the political year. 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.480 Do we know anything about those events? Has anyone said 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:12.600 that they're not going. 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.560 No at this stage. Well, we have Latona next week 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.120 up in the very ot Snagtak. At this time of 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:20.920 year that is generally seen as the start of the 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:25.360 political year. Pretty much all party leaders go to that event. 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.840 I think David Seam has missed it a few times. 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.120 And then of course in early February we have White 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:35.080 Honey up North and that is always a set piece event. 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.760 It's interesting the Prime Minister Chris Luckxon didn't attend last year. 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.160 He actually spent the day with Natahou and Kadoa just 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.440 outside of christ Church. So it will be interesting to 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:47.680 see if, given it's an election year, he will attend 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.880 White Honey celebrations. Safe to assume David Seam will be there, 0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.000 Chriss Hipkins will be there, the Greens will be there. 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:56.480 Winston usually goes that's his nahe up in the North, 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.360 so no doubt he'll be there. The question really is 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.160 the Prime Minister. He hasn't made a decision on that yet. 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:07.560 And Ethan finally give me some predictions for this year. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.680 I don't mind how wild they are and I don't 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:12.600 mind if you want to put some cash down if 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:14.800 you're really confident about some as well. 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:19.399 Predictions are a fool's game, particularly in politics. 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:19.960 But I can't play. 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:22.680 I'll give you three. I'll give you three. It will 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:27.480 be a November election. I'm pretty confident in that both 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:30.439 National and Labor won't get more than forty percent of 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.480 the party vote, and either David Seymour or CRUs Hipkins 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.240 will get married, but both won't. Only one will. They're 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:38.960 both engaged, obviously, so. 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:40.879 Only one will. 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.160 Well, I've already seen a Woman's Day and Z cover 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.679 from one of them. Do you reckon there's going to 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.160 be another as well, featuring Seymour. 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:51.800 We'll have to wait and see. I don't know if 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:54.280 he's ever been in Woman's Day actually, but I feel 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:55.760 like I feel like you quite enjoy it. 0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:57.960 Yeah, I think so as well. 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:00.720 Well, I reckon I'll put a couple of dictions down 0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:02.960 as well. I think you're you're straight on the money 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.199 with no party reaching forty percent, so I agree with 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:11.320 you on that. But also I think a major announcement 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:16.360 in regards to assets sales before the next election as well. 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:17.919 I think that's going to be a hot topic. 0:18:18.840 --> 0:18:20.879 I agree, it's certainly going to be one to watch. 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:27.240 Thanks so much for joining us, Ethan, Thanks Chelsea. That's 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:29.720 it for this episode of the Front Page. 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:33.600 You can read more about today's stories and extensive news 0:18:33.640 --> 0:18:38.120 coverage at NZDHERLD dot co dot nz. The Front Page 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:41.720 is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who's also 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:42.560 our editor. 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:44.520 I'm Chelsea Daniels. 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:48.159 Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.880 get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:53.120 behind the headlines.