Speaker 1: Kyota.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New Zealand
Speaker 2: Politics kicks off this year.
Speaker 3: Under the shadow of a looming general election. From a
Speaker 3: continued cost of living.
Speaker 2: Crisis and economic recovery to treaty debates and tensions between
Speaker 2: coalition partners, this year will see a mixed bag from
Speaker 2: the Beehive. It comes off the back of a major
Speaker 2: push for economic growth in twenty twenty five, with Roma
Speaker 2: reform and fast track approvals dominating headlines.
Speaker 3: But will all of that pay off today?
Speaker 2: On the Front Page, we dive into where each party stands,
Speaker 2: what they've announced us far, and what the election campaign
Speaker 2: could bring us with Newstalk z.
Speaker 3: B political reporter Ethan Griffin. Ethan, as we enter the
Speaker 3: new year, what do you see as I guess the defining.
Speaker 2: Issues that we're going to be voting on come election
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and.
Speaker 4: One word, it's the economy, right, Everything relies on the economy.
Speaker 4: It's the biggest issue for voters. Voters vote on how
Speaker 4: they're feeling in their back pocket. Now, we haven't seen
Speaker 4: much growth in the last two years at all, we're
Speaker 4: expecting moderate growth in the next twelve months. The question
Speaker 4: really will be how much growth do we see. National's
Speaker 4: fortunes rely pretty much entirely on the economy. It's not
Speaker 4: a be all and end all. They will seriously be
Speaker 4: hoping that we see some growth this year. Also expect
Speaker 4: health to be a bit of a focus as well.
Speaker 4: The IPSOS Issues Monitor, which sort of records the biggest
Speaker 4: issues for New Zealand voters, is pretty clear right now
Speaker 4: that health is the second biggest issue. It was an
Speaker 4: issued last campaign as well. National and Labor have spent
Speaker 4: a lot of time talking about it over the last
Speaker 4: two years, so expect that to be on the agenda
Speaker 4: as well. I'd also keep it eye on superannuation this year.
Speaker 4: There's been a bit of talk from Labor and New
Speaker 4: Zealand First on that. Both have pretty strong policies on
Speaker 4: the issue of super annuation. Expect the policy from National
Speaker 4: on that as well. And one more to keep an
Speaker 4: eye on immigration and migration. We've had some pretty high
Speaker 4: rivals over the term. Expect New Zealand First to be
Speaker 4: talking a bit about that. But a bigger issue than
Speaker 4: that is of course the New Zealand is moving offshore migration,
Speaker 4: particularly the key he is heading over the ditch, so
Speaker 4: expect Labor to focus a lot on that as well.
Speaker 3: We mentioned the health of our economy there.
Speaker 2: Of course, it's obviously a major point of contention heading
Speaker 2: into the election. Do you reckon national will be in
Speaker 2: trouble even if it's a moderate shift When it comes
Speaker 2: to the economy. How many eggs have they put in
Speaker 2: the economy basket?
Speaker 4: Pretty much all of them. I think it's fair to
Speaker 4: say they will be that this will be the number
Speaker 4: one concern on the ninth floor right now. What level
Speaker 4: of growth are we going to see this? And as
Speaker 4: I said, I think it's clear that we will see
Speaker 4: some and we desperately need it. The question will be
Speaker 4: how much do we see. They will be hoping it's
Speaker 4: a lot. Will it be enough to get them over
Speaker 4: the line. I'm not ready to make predictions on that,
Speaker 4: but the economy is undoubtedly going to be the bigest
Speaker 4: issue of the campaign.
Speaker 2: And of course we'll look for Ford to budget twenty
Speaker 2: twenty six.
Speaker 3: Hopefully it will be a bit sexier than last.
Speaker 4: Year's potentially, but then again, the government's broke, They've got
Speaker 4: no money, there's no surplus in the next five years
Speaker 4: in the foreseeable future. This is a government who is
Speaker 4: essentially relying on cutting parts of the state and audition
Speaker 4: out money to other areas, which they've done with things
Speaker 4: like farmac cancer, Droon's health and things like that. It's
Speaker 4: unlikely to be a budget where lots of lollies are
Speaker 4: thrown around, but you never know, do you, Reckon.
Speaker 2: Parties will start politicking straight off the back of the
Speaker 2: summer holidays.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so. Expect in the next two weeks
Speaker 4: some major set piece speetures by both leaders. Chris Luxon
Speaker 4: is planning a State of the Nation's speech which you
Speaker 4: can expect to hear at some point in the next
Speaker 4: few weeks. I have no doubt that Precipians will follow
Speaker 4: with some sort of rally as well. Both parties will
Speaker 4: be getting into January with their away caucuses, their caucus
Speaker 4: retreats where they all go away to various parts of
Speaker 4: the country and have their little meetings and their little
Speaker 4: huis in those places and then come together ready to
Speaker 4: fight at election campaign. Of course, you've got Vatima and
Speaker 4: Waitangi coming up as well the start of the political year,
Speaker 4: and that will make things even more explosive.
Speaker 2: What pressure points do you see arising from the current
Speaker 2: coalition government as they're more than likely straight off the
Speaker 2: back going to be going their separate ways and trying
Speaker 2: really hard to differentiate themselves from the others.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well this is kind of uncharted territory right this
Speaker 4: is the first three party coalition government. I think it's
Speaker 4: fair to say, looking at the polls right now, the
Speaker 4: parties have actually done an all right job differentiating themselves
Speaker 4: throughout the term. I think the rules of MMP have
Speaker 4: slightly been shifted. I think we've seen a lot more
Speaker 4: disagreement this term than we have seen in any previous
Speaker 4: MMP governments, and I think the polls reflect that. Both
Speaker 4: AT and New Zealand first sitting quite comfortably there in
Speaker 4: the polls. On Winston, we're seeing it already. I sat
Speaker 4: down with him shortly before Christmas and he was criticizing
Speaker 4: the National's talk on the economy and the lack of
Speaker 4: action that we're seeing. He's also been prinicle of Acts
Speaker 4: Regulatory Standards Bill as well. For David Seymour, the obvious
Speaker 4: one there is race relations. I also sat down with
Speaker 4: him just before Christmas and he says, that's a drum
Speaker 4: that he's going to continue to bang. It's a very
Speaker 4: important issue for the ACT Party, so expect that to
Speaker 4: be part of the election campaign as well. In terms
Speaker 4: of it heating up this year it's an election year,
Speaker 4: it undoubtedly will. But I think it's also worth noting
Speaker 4: here that all three parties have done a fairly decent
Speaker 4: job of differentiating themselves throughout the term, so expect to
Speaker 4: see a little bit more of that this year. It's
Speaker 4: naturally an election year.
Speaker 2: Are you surprised that David Seymour will continue to bang
Speaker 2: on that drum?
Speaker 4: Not hugely. It's a very important issue for him and
Speaker 4: clearly a very important issue for his voter base. I
Speaker 4: think of all the policies that he's come up with
Speaker 4: in the last how long he's been in politics ten
Speaker 4: years now, even euthanasia, I don't think God has much
Speaker 4: attention for him. It was successful for him, it didn't pass,
Speaker 4: he got lots of headlines out of it, his supporters
Speaker 4: love it. I would imagine it's going to be an
Speaker 4: issue that he continues to explore come election.
Speaker 5: Yet, how would you describe twenty twenty five for the
Speaker 5: ACT Party in a word or two tough.
Speaker 1: It was tough for everybody, but towards the end that
Speaker 1: just started to feel like we were turning a corner.
Speaker 1: And I hope a people come back into twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: that momentum will continue for the whole country. And of
Speaker 1: course I'd be lying if I didn't say I hope
Speaker 1: it continues for act of course.
Speaker 5: Okay, well said.
Speaker 2: In terms of minor parties, Ethan, do you think any
Speaker 2: A well placed to really bring it back home in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and have a kind of breakout moment.
Speaker 4: I suppose I can't see any breakout moments immediately right now.
Speaker 4: What I can see is a breakaway moment, and that's
Speaker 4: obviously to Party Mardi. They had a disastrous year last year,
Speaker 4: particularly the last few months. They had six MP's coming
Speaker 4: into parliament this term. They've now got four. Two of
Speaker 4: them have been booted, Mariamno Cupa Kingi from the north
Speaker 4: and Tucke to Ferris from the south, both quite popular MPs,
Speaker 4: particularly Maririu and Menno up north. Expect to see potentially
Speaker 4: those who run as independents or a new breakaway Maori
Speaker 4: movement begin. It will also be really interesting to see
Speaker 4: how the party sits with its own supporter base in
Speaker 4: terms of those people that support Muddey and Meno and
Speaker 4: Target and are feeling disillusioned with the party. Looking also
Speaker 4: at the Greens, they've been bouncing around prey much we
Speaker 4: you'd expect them to in the polls, but it's interesting
Speaker 4: of all the party leaders. Zoe Swarbrick, co Leader of
Speaker 4: the Green Party, this is her first election as a
Speaker 4: leader of a party, sort of inted interesting to watch
Speaker 4: her and see how she performs this year as well.
Speaker 2: It's actually easy to forget that it's her first election
Speaker 2: as leader because she has always been a prominent presence
Speaker 2: within the Green Party. Do you reckon that that's going
Speaker 2: to change anything for her or is she just going
Speaker 2: to track on.
Speaker 4: She's a popular politician and she connects with a lot
Speaker 4: of different people. It'll be really interesting to see her
Speaker 4: traveling the length of the country and campaigning. Of course,
Speaker 4: she's also got her own seat, all Concentral, which she'll
Speaker 4: be campaigning in as well, so it'll be very interesting
Speaker 4: to see how she balances that, and more broadly for
Speaker 4: the Greens, which electorates they keep as well. Of course
Speaker 4: you've got Tamitha Paul here in Wellington Central. Those boundaries
Speaker 4: have changed, they might not be as favorable to the Greens.
Speaker 4: And then you've got Julianne Genta and Wellington Bays the
Speaker 4: renamed Wellington Bays electorate, and it looks like from boundary
Speaker 4: changes that would benefit her as well. So the Greens
Speaker 4: could be in for quite a good year.
Speaker 2: Know that the Opportunities Party has a new leader. Do
Speaker 2: you reckon they're going to make any waves.
Speaker 4: They have a new leader, right, They've got some new blood.
Speaker 4: They'll probably quite energized. I know that they've still sort
Speaker 4: of been around and polls around that sort of one
Speaker 4: to two percent area, I think, outside of twenty seventeen
Speaker 4: where Gareth Morgan were leading them. This election is probably
Speaker 4: their best shot at getting into Parliament. That's not saying
Speaker 4: they will. That is a wild call to say that.
Speaker 4: What I do think and see in the political realm
Speaker 4: right now is the Purple vote is down. The Purple
Speaker 4: vote is very very small. People are looking for alternatives.
Speaker 4: Some people may be looking at the Opportunities Party and
Speaker 4: thinking this could be a good alternative. It's really going
Speaker 4: to depend what policies they come out with. How much
Speaker 4: coverage they get and where the voters see them as
Speaker 4: a viable alternative to the parties already in parliament and whatever.
Speaker 4: I mean.
Speaker 2: We spoke about this a little bit on the podcast
Speaker 2: last year, this idea potentially of a breakoff another Moldi
Speaker 2: led party. Of course, you mentioned those two that have
Speaker 2: been expelled. What are the likelihoods or is there any
Speaker 2: whisperings around Parliament that that could actually happen or will
Speaker 2: they just likely run as independence.
Speaker 4: It's really hard to say. It's going to depend on
Speaker 4: them talking to their people and the support that they're
Speaker 4: engaging for themselves. I think it is interesting that in
Speaker 4: the High Court action we saw last year where Maniammino
Speaker 4: Kapakingi challenged the Mardi Party around her expulsion, that was
Speaker 4: just her, It wasn't both of them taking that compactionion together.
Speaker 4: So I'm not sure how much we read into that
Speaker 4: in terms of how they are engaging with each other.
Speaker 4: If they could form their own movement or runners independents.
Speaker 4: It's also very possible one of them might drop out
Speaker 4: and choose not to run and the other one does.
Speaker 4: I guess it's really a wedding.
Speaker 2: Game and remind us of a few election promises that
Speaker 2: we've already heard from thus far.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's actually been very light so far. To Labor,
Speaker 4: we've obviously had their capital gains tax policy, a twenty
Speaker 4: eight percent flat capital gains tax on investment properties, not
Speaker 4: the family home, not yes, and not the farm. Then
Speaker 4: they've got their Future Fund, which essentially is taking the
Speaker 4: dividends from stat Own Enterpris's assets, chucking them into a
Speaker 4: little investment kitty and waiting thirty years to start pulling
Speaker 4: money out of that. And obviously they want to get
Speaker 4: rid of the Regulatory Standards Act in their first one
Speaker 4: hundred days as well. That's pretty much at the Labor
Speaker 4: the national they want to bring, can we say, the
Speaker 4: contributions from three percent to six percent by twenty thirty two.
Speaker 4: I imagine there would be some broad cross party support
Speaker 4: for a policy like that. Obviously, they are the major
Speaker 4: party of government, so expect to hear much more from
Speaker 4: them as well.
Speaker 2: Is it surprising this early on not to have, you know,
Speaker 2: announced anything.
Speaker 4: More potentially from Labour's perspective, Yes, they've had two years
Speaker 4: in opposition now they've had the same leadership, so they
Speaker 4: haven't sort of they've had to sort of get used
Speaker 4: to opposition, but they haven't had to get used to
Speaker 4: a whole new leadership team. You would think they would
Speaker 4: be bubbling away on the background on some policy. I'm
Speaker 4: sure they have and it will come to the four
Speaker 4: this year, but you'd probably expect more from Labor at
Speaker 4: this point in the term. In terms of the government,
Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say they've been focused on governing.
Speaker 4: They release policies all the time, policies that the government
Speaker 4: progresses with. It'll be very interesting to see of the
Speaker 4: three parties of government what they bring to an election campaign.
Speaker 3: Well, perhaps Labor hasn't needed to.
Speaker 2: How have the poles been looking at that at the
Speaker 2: last half of last year?
Speaker 4: And this is the really interesting thing, right, the poles
Speaker 4: are at nice edge territory. There were forty seven poles
Speaker 4: conducted last year. I went back and had a lock.
Speaker 4: Labor was leading in twenty two of them. National was
Speaker 4: leading in twenty five of them. So it is really
Speaker 4: split down the middle there. Now, those are various poles,
Speaker 4: different methodology, different companies, so take it all with a
Speaker 4: grain of salt. Also have to make the point that
Speaker 4: the government was leading in most of them. While Labor
Speaker 4: was the largest party. If things could stay the same,
Speaker 4: we could realistically see some of the weakest purple vote
Speaker 4: in an MP right. That's the red and the blue
Speaker 4: vote coming together. They are at record lows right now,
Speaker 4: and the minor parties are in very very strong positions.
Speaker 4: It'll be interesting to see a Disney consolidation as the
Speaker 4: year goes on, but right now the polls are in
Speaker 4: very much Nithe Edge territory.
Speaker 6: I've still got a lot of energy for this job.
Speaker 6: I only took over about eight months before the election.
Speaker 6: I had eight months as Prime Minister, and you know
Speaker 6: I said there as soon as I took over from Gacinda,
Speaker 6: I want Labor to get back to focusing on what
Speaker 6: the Labor Party is all about. Jobs, health homes, you know,
Speaker 6: making sure we're raising living standards for all New Zealanders,
Speaker 6: focusing on the things that unite New Zealanders rather than
Speaker 6: the things that divide us apart, making sure that we
Speaker 6: we're dealing with controversial and tricky areas like the Treaty
Speaker 6: for example, that we're slowing down a bit and we're
Speaker 6: bringing people with us. We're not you know, people don't
Speaker 6: feel like a whole lot's happening that they don't know
Speaker 6: about and they're mistrustful of their You know, I started
Speaker 6: that work when I became Prime Minister and then, you know,
Speaker 6: I still think that's that the Labor Party needs to do.
Speaker 6: I think we need to make sure that we're there
Speaker 6: for the people who we represent.
Speaker 2: And in terms of all of the party leaders, I
Speaker 2: know that there were a few questions swirling around last year.
Speaker 2: Do you Reckon Hopkins will continue through to the election.
Speaker 3: I know he's told us he will.
Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's likely Labor are in
Speaker 4: a good position right now. The only way you could
Speaker 4: see him falling out of that job as if things
Speaker 4: get really dire for the Labor Party. And there's a
Speaker 4: fun fact here, Actually, this is the first time ever
Speaker 4: if both lead to stand their job, the first time
Speaker 4: ever under MMP that two leaders had fought an election
Speaker 4: twice in a row. The last time that happened was
Speaker 4: before an MP in nineteen ninety three with Jim Vulger
Speaker 4: and Mike Moore. And this is where it gets interesting.
Speaker 4: In nineteen ninety Bulger smashed Mike mooreter win his first
Speaker 4: term in office. Three years later, more came within one
Speaker 4: seat of winning against Jim Vulger. So it doesn't repeat,
Speaker 4: but it may give us an indication of how tight
Speaker 4: this election could be.
Speaker 3: And when those numbers become clearer.
Speaker 2: I mean, I know that Labor and Tipati, Maori and
Speaker 2: the Greens have all kind of kept a separate from themselves,
Speaker 2: and I suspect the coalition government parties will do the
Speaker 2: same coming into the year. When do you expect them
Speaker 2: to kind of merge together?
Speaker 3: I suppose I think.
Speaker 4: Throughout the year all we're going to see is them
Speaker 4: sort of come apart a little bit more. It's fairly
Speaker 4: clear who the preferred partners are, right, Green's work with Labor,
Speaker 4: the Maori Party want to work with the Left Actors
Speaker 4: very much. Act would work with National. It's as simple
Speaker 4: really as that. But there is differentiation there. The parties
Speaker 4: have different policies. I imagine as we head towards election day,
Speaker 4: those differentiations are going to be much more clear. It's
Speaker 4: only after the election that they'll start to come together
Speaker 4: and negotiate either side depending on where they sit, and
Speaker 4: then we'll get a result after that.
Speaker 3: And you match mentioned Ratna and why Tongey.
Speaker 2: Of course, before the unofficial kicking off of the political year.
Speaker 2: Do we know anything about those events? Has anyone said
Speaker 2: that they're not going.
Speaker 4: No at this stage. Well, we have Latona next week
Speaker 4: up in the very ot Snagtak. At this time of
Speaker 4: year that is generally seen as the start of the
Speaker 4: political year. Pretty much all party leaders go to that event.
Speaker 4: I think David Seam has missed it a few times.
Speaker 4: And then of course in early February we have White
Speaker 4: Honey up North and that is always a set piece event.
Speaker 4: It's interesting the Prime Minister Chris Luckxon didn't attend last year.
Speaker 4: He actually spent the day with Natahou and Kadoa just
Speaker 4: outside of christ Church. So it will be interesting to
Speaker 4: see if, given it's an election year, he will attend
Speaker 4: White Honey celebrations. Safe to assume David Seam will be there,
Speaker 4: Chriss Hipkins will be there, the Greens will be there.
Speaker 4: Winston usually goes that's his nahe up in the North,
Speaker 4: so no doubt he'll be there. The question really is
Speaker 4: the Prime Minister. He hasn't made a decision on that yet.
Speaker 2: And Ethan finally give me some predictions for this year.
Speaker 2: I don't mind how wild they are and I don't
Speaker 2: mind if you want to put some cash down if
Speaker 2: you're really confident about some as well.
Speaker 4: Predictions are a fool's game, particularly in politics.
Speaker 3: But I can't play.
Speaker 4: I'll give you three. I'll give you three. It will
Speaker 4: be a November election. I'm pretty confident in that both
Speaker 4: National and Labor won't get more than forty percent of
Speaker 4: the party vote, and either David Seymour or CRUs Hipkins
Speaker 4: will get married, but both won't. Only one will. They're
Speaker 4: both engaged, obviously, so.
Speaker 3: Only one will.
Speaker 2: Well, I've already seen a Woman's Day and Z cover
Speaker 2: from one of them. Do you reckon there's going to
Speaker 2: be another as well, featuring Seymour.
Speaker 4: We'll have to wait and see. I don't know if
Speaker 4: he's ever been in Woman's Day actually, but I feel
Speaker 4: like I feel like you quite enjoy it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so as well.
Speaker 2: Well, I reckon I'll put a couple of dictions down
Speaker 2: as well. I think you're you're straight on the money
Speaker 2: with no party reaching forty percent, so I agree with
Speaker 2: you on that. But also I think a major announcement
Speaker 2: in regards to assets sales before the next election as well.
Speaker 3: I think that's going to be a hot topic.
Speaker 4: I agree, it's certainly going to be one to watch.
Speaker 3: Thanks so much for joining us, Ethan, Thanks Chelsea. That's
Speaker 3: it for this episode of the Front Page.
Speaker 2: You can read more about today's stories and extensive news
Speaker 2: coverage at NZDHERLD dot co dot nz. The Front Page
Speaker 2: is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who's also
Speaker 2: our editor.
Speaker 3: I'm Chelsea Daniels.
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Speaker 2: behind the headlines.