1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: Kyota. 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New Zealand 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 2: Politics kicks off this year. 5 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 3: Under the shadow of a looming general election. From a 6 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 3: continued cost of living. 7 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 2: Crisis and economic recovery to treaty debates and tensions between 8 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,880 Speaker 2: coalition partners, this year will see a mixed bag from 9 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 2: the Beehive. It comes off the back of a major 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 2: push for economic growth in twenty twenty five, with Roma 11 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 2: reform and fast track approvals dominating headlines. 12 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 3: But will all of that pay off today? 13 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 2: On the Front Page, we dive into where each party stands, 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 2: what they've announced us far, and what the election campaign 15 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: could bring us with Newstalk z. 16 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 3: B political reporter Ethan Griffin. Ethan, as we enter the 17 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 3: new year, what do you see as I guess the defining. 18 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: Issues that we're going to be voting on come election 19 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and. 20 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 4: One word, it's the economy, right, Everything relies on the economy. 21 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 4: It's the biggest issue for voters. Voters vote on how 22 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 4: they're feeling in their back pocket. Now, we haven't seen 23 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 4: much growth in the last two years at all, we're 24 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 4: expecting moderate growth in the next twelve months. The question 25 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 4: really will be how much growth do we see. National's 26 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 4: fortunes rely pretty much entirely on the economy. It's not 27 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 4: a be all and end all. They will seriously be 28 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: hoping that we see some growth this year. Also expect 29 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 4: health to be a bit of a focus as well. 30 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 4: The IPSOS Issues Monitor, which sort of records the biggest 31 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 4: issues for New Zealand voters, is pretty clear right now 32 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 4: that health is the second biggest issue. It was an 33 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 4: issued last campaign as well. National and Labor have spent 34 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 4: a lot of time talking about it over the last 35 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 4: two years, so expect that to be on the agenda 36 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 4: as well. I'd also keep it eye on superannuation this year. 37 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 4: There's been a bit of talk from Labor and New 38 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 4: Zealand First on that. Both have pretty strong policies on 39 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 4: the issue of super annuation. Expect the policy from National 40 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 4: on that as well. And one more to keep an 41 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 4: eye on immigration and migration. We've had some pretty high 42 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 4: rivals over the term. Expect New Zealand First to be 43 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 4: talking a bit about that. But a bigger issue than 44 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 4: that is of course the New Zealand is moving offshore migration, 45 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 4: particularly the key he is heading over the ditch, so 46 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 4: expect Labor to focus a lot on that as well. 47 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,839 Speaker 3: We mentioned the health of our economy there. 48 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 2: Of course, it's obviously a major point of contention heading 49 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: into the election. Do you reckon national will be in 50 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 2: trouble even if it's a moderate shift When it comes 51 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 2: to the economy. How many eggs have they put in 52 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 2: the economy basket? 53 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 4: Pretty much all of them. I think it's fair to 54 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 4: say they will be that this will be the number 55 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 4: one concern on the ninth floor right now. What level 56 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 4: of growth are we going to see this? And as 57 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 4: I said, I think it's clear that we will see 58 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 4: some and we desperately need it. The question will be 59 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 4: how much do we see. They will be hoping it's 60 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,839 Speaker 4: a lot. Will it be enough to get them over 61 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 4: the line. I'm not ready to make predictions on that, 62 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: but the economy is undoubtedly going to be the bigest 63 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 4: issue of the campaign. 64 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: And of course we'll look for Ford to budget twenty 65 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: twenty six. 66 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 3: Hopefully it will be a bit sexier than last. 67 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 4: Year's potentially, but then again, the government's broke, They've got 68 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 4: no money, there's no surplus in the next five years 69 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 4: in the foreseeable future. This is a government who is 70 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 4: essentially relying on cutting parts of the state and audition 71 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 4: out money to other areas, which they've done with things 72 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 4: like farmac cancer, Droon's health and things like that. It's 73 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 4: unlikely to be a budget where lots of lollies are 74 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 4: thrown around, but you never know, do you, Reckon. 75 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 2: Parties will start politicking straight off the back of the 76 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 2: summer holidays. 77 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so. Expect in the next two weeks 78 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 4: some major set piece speetures by both leaders. Chris Luxon 79 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 4: is planning a State of the Nation's speech which you 80 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 4: can expect to hear at some point in the next 81 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 4: few weeks. I have no doubt that Precipians will follow 82 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 4: with some sort of rally as well. Both parties will 83 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 4: be getting into January with their away caucuses, their caucus 84 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 4: retreats where they all go away to various parts of 85 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 4: the country and have their little meetings and their little 86 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 4: huis in those places and then come together ready to 87 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 4: fight at election campaign. Of course, you've got Vatima and 88 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,719 Speaker 4: Waitangi coming up as well the start of the political year, 89 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 4: and that will make things even more explosive. 90 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: What pressure points do you see arising from the current 91 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 2: coalition government as they're more than likely straight off the 92 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: back going to be going their separate ways and trying 93 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 2: really hard to differentiate themselves from the others. 94 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, well this is kind of uncharted territory right this 95 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 4: is the first three party coalition government. I think it's 96 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 4: fair to say, looking at the polls right now, the 97 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 4: parties have actually done an all right job differentiating themselves 98 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: throughout the term. I think the rules of MMP have 99 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 4: slightly been shifted. I think we've seen a lot more 100 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 4: disagreement this term than we have seen in any previous 101 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,119 Speaker 4: MMP governments, and I think the polls reflect that. Both 102 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 4: AT and New Zealand first sitting quite comfortably there in 103 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 4: the polls. On Winston, we're seeing it already. I sat 104 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 4: down with him shortly before Christmas and he was criticizing 105 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 4: the National's talk on the economy and the lack of 106 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 4: action that we're seeing. He's also been prinicle of Acts 107 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 4: Regulatory Standards Bill as well. For David Seymour, the obvious 108 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 4: one there is race relations. I also sat down with 109 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 4: him just before Christmas and he says, that's a drum 110 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 4: that he's going to continue to bang. It's a very 111 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 4: important issue for the ACT Party, so expect that to 112 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 4: be part of the election campaign as well. In terms 113 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 4: of it heating up this year it's an election year, 114 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,599 Speaker 4: it undoubtedly will. But I think it's also worth noting 115 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 4: here that all three parties have done a fairly decent 116 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 4: job of differentiating themselves throughout the term, so expect to 117 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 4: see a little bit more of that this year. It's 118 00:05:58,400 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 4: naturally an election year. 119 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 2: Are you surprised that David Seymour will continue to bang 120 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 2: on that drum? 121 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 4: Not hugely. It's a very important issue for him and 122 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 4: clearly a very important issue for his voter base. I 123 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 4: think of all the policies that he's come up with 124 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 4: in the last how long he's been in politics ten 125 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 4: years now, even euthanasia, I don't think God has much 126 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 4: attention for him. It was successful for him, it didn't pass, 127 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 4: he got lots of headlines out of it, his supporters 128 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 4: love it. I would imagine it's going to be an 129 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 4: issue that he continues to explore come election. 130 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 5: Yet, how would you describe twenty twenty five for the 131 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 5: ACT Party in a word or two tough. 132 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: It was tough for everybody, but towards the end that 133 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: just started to feel like we were turning a corner. 134 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: And I hope a people come back into twenty twenty six, 135 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: that momentum will continue for the whole country. And of 136 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: course I'd be lying if I didn't say I hope 137 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: it continues for act of course. 138 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 5: Okay, well said. 139 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 2: In terms of minor parties, Ethan, do you think any 140 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: A well placed to really bring it back home in 141 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and have a kind of breakout moment. 142 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 4: I suppose I can't see any breakout moments immediately right now. 143 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 4: What I can see is a breakaway moment, and that's 144 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 4: obviously to Party Mardi. They had a disastrous year last year, 145 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 4: particularly the last few months. They had six MP's coming 146 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 4: into parliament this term. They've now got four. Two of 147 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 4: them have been booted, Mariamno Cupa Kingi from the north 148 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 4: and Tucke to Ferris from the south, both quite popular MPs, 149 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 4: particularly Maririu and Menno up north. Expect to see potentially 150 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 4: those who run as independents or a new breakaway Maori 151 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 4: movement begin. It will also be really interesting to see 152 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 4: how the party sits with its own supporter base in 153 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 4: terms of those people that support Muddey and Meno and 154 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 4: Target and are feeling disillusioned with the party. Looking also 155 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 4: at the Greens, they've been bouncing around prey much we 156 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 4: you'd expect them to in the polls, but it's interesting 157 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 4: of all the party leaders. Zoe Swarbrick, co Leader of 158 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 4: the Green Party, this is her first election as a 159 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 4: leader of a party, sort of inted interesting to watch 160 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 4: her and see how she performs this year as well. 161 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: It's actually easy to forget that it's her first election 162 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 2: as leader because she has always been a prominent presence 163 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 2: within the Green Party. Do you reckon that that's going 164 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 2: to change anything for her or is she just going 165 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: to track on. 166 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 4: She's a popular politician and she connects with a lot 167 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 4: of different people. It'll be really interesting to see her 168 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: traveling the length of the country and campaigning. Of course, 169 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 4: she's also got her own seat, all Concentral, which she'll 170 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 4: be campaigning in as well, so it'll be very interesting 171 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 4: to see how she balances that, and more broadly for 172 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 4: the Greens, which electorates they keep as well. Of course 173 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 4: you've got Tamitha Paul here in Wellington Central. Those boundaries 174 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 4: have changed, they might not be as favorable to the Greens. 175 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 4: And then you've got Julianne Genta and Wellington Bays the 176 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 4: renamed Wellington Bays electorate, and it looks like from boundary 177 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 4: changes that would benefit her as well. So the Greens 178 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 4: could be in for quite a good year. 179 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 2: Know that the Opportunities Party has a new leader. Do 180 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: you reckon they're going to make any waves. 181 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 4: They have a new leader, right, They've got some new blood. 182 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 4: They'll probably quite energized. I know that they've still sort 183 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 4: of been around and polls around that sort of one 184 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 4: to two percent area, I think, outside of twenty seventeen 185 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 4: where Gareth Morgan were leading them. This election is probably 186 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 4: their best shot at getting into Parliament. That's not saying 187 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 4: they will. That is a wild call to say that. 188 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 4: What I do think and see in the political realm 189 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 4: right now is the Purple vote is down. The Purple 190 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 4: vote is very very small. People are looking for alternatives. 191 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: Some people may be looking at the Opportunities Party and 192 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 4: thinking this could be a good alternative. It's really going 193 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 4: to depend what policies they come out with. How much 194 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 4: coverage they get and where the voters see them as 195 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 4: a viable alternative to the parties already in parliament and whatever. 196 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 4: I mean. 197 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: We spoke about this a little bit on the podcast 198 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 2: last year, this idea potentially of a breakoff another Moldi 199 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 2: led party. Of course, you mentioned those two that have 200 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: been expelled. What are the likelihoods or is there any 201 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 2: whisperings around Parliament that that could actually happen or will 202 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: they just likely run as independence. 203 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 4: It's really hard to say. It's going to depend on 204 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 4: them talking to their people and the support that they're 205 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 4: engaging for themselves. I think it is interesting that in 206 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 4: the High Court action we saw last year where Maniammino 207 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 4: Kapakingi challenged the Mardi Party around her expulsion, that was 208 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 4: just her, It wasn't both of them taking that compactionion together. 209 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 4: So I'm not sure how much we read into that 210 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 4: in terms of how they are engaging with each other. 211 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 4: If they could form their own movement or runners independents. 212 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 4: It's also very possible one of them might drop out 213 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 4: and choose not to run and the other one does. 214 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 4: I guess it's really a wedding. 215 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: Game and remind us of a few election promises that 216 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 2: we've already heard from thus far. 217 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's actually been very light so far. To Labor, 218 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 4: we've obviously had their capital gains tax policy, a twenty 219 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 4: eight percent flat capital gains tax on investment properties, not 220 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 4: the family home, not yes, and not the farm. Then 221 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 4: they've got their Future Fund, which essentially is taking the 222 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 4: dividends from stat Own Enterpris's assets, chucking them into a 223 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 4: little investment kitty and waiting thirty years to start pulling 224 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 4: money out of that. And obviously they want to get 225 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 4: rid of the Regulatory Standards Act in their first one 226 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 4: hundred days as well. That's pretty much at the Labor 227 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 4: the national they want to bring, can we say, the 228 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 4: contributions from three percent to six percent by twenty thirty two. 229 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 4: I imagine there would be some broad cross party support 230 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 4: for a policy like that. Obviously, they are the major 231 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 4: party of government, so expect to hear much more from 232 00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:35,719 Speaker 4: them as well. 233 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 2: Is it surprising this early on not to have, you know, 234 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 2: announced anything. 235 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 4: More potentially from Labour's perspective, Yes, they've had two years 236 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 4: in opposition now they've had the same leadership, so they 237 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 4: haven't sort of they've had to sort of get used 238 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 4: to opposition, but they haven't had to get used to 239 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 4: a whole new leadership team. You would think they would 240 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 4: be bubbling away on the background on some policy. I'm 241 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 4: sure they have and it will come to the four 242 00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 4: this year, but you'd probably expect more from Labor at 243 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 4: this point in the term. In terms of the government, 244 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say they've been focused on governing. 245 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 4: They release policies all the time, policies that the government 246 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 4: progresses with. It'll be very interesting to see of the 247 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 4: three parties of government what they bring to an election campaign. 248 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 3: Well, perhaps Labor hasn't needed to. 249 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 2: How have the poles been looking at that at the 250 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 2: last half of last year? 251 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 4: And this is the really interesting thing, right, the poles 252 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 4: are at nice edge territory. There were forty seven poles 253 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: conducted last year. I went back and had a lock. 254 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 4: Labor was leading in twenty two of them. National was 255 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 4: leading in twenty five of them. So it is really 256 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 4: split down the middle there. Now, those are various poles, 257 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 4: different methodology, different companies, so take it all with a 258 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 4: grain of salt. Also have to make the point that 259 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 4: the government was leading in most of them. While Labor 260 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 4: was the largest party. If things could stay the same, 261 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 4: we could realistically see some of the weakest purple vote 262 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 4: in an MP right. That's the red and the blue 263 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 4: vote coming together. They are at record lows right now, 264 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 4: and the minor parties are in very very strong positions. 265 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 4: It'll be interesting to see a Disney consolidation as the 266 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 4: year goes on, but right now the polls are in 267 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 4: very much Nithe Edge territory. 268 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 6: I've still got a lot of energy for this job. 269 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 6: I only took over about eight months before the election. 270 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 6: I had eight months as Prime Minister, and you know 271 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 6: I said there as soon as I took over from Gacinda, 272 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 6: I want Labor to get back to focusing on what 273 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 6: the Labor Party is all about. Jobs, health homes, you know, 274 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 6: making sure we're raising living standards for all New Zealanders, 275 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 6: focusing on the things that unite New Zealanders rather than 276 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 6: the things that divide us apart, making sure that we 277 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 6: we're dealing with controversial and tricky areas like the Treaty 278 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 6: for example, that we're slowing down a bit and we're 279 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 6: bringing people with us. We're not you know, people don't 280 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 6: feel like a whole lot's happening that they don't know 281 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 6: about and they're mistrustful of their You know, I started 282 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 6: that work when I became Prime Minister and then, you know, 283 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 6: I still think that's that the Labor Party needs to do. 284 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,080 Speaker 6: I think we need to make sure that we're there 285 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 6: for the people who we represent. 286 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 2: And in terms of all of the party leaders, I 287 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 2: know that there were a few questions swirling around last year. 288 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 2: Do you Reckon Hopkins will continue through to the election. 289 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 3: I know he's told us he will. 290 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's likely Labor are in 291 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 4: a good position right now. The only way you could 292 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 4: see him falling out of that job as if things 293 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 4: get really dire for the Labor Party. And there's a 294 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 4: fun fact here, Actually, this is the first time ever 295 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 4: if both lead to stand their job, the first time 296 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 4: ever under MMP that two leaders had fought an election 297 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 4: twice in a row. The last time that happened was 298 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 4: before an MP in nineteen ninety three with Jim Vulger 299 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 4: and Mike Moore. And this is where it gets interesting. 300 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 4: In nineteen ninety Bulger smashed Mike mooreter win his first 301 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 4: term in office. Three years later, more came within one 302 00:14:55,520 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 4: seat of winning against Jim Vulger. So it doesn't repeat, 303 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 4: but it may give us an indication of how tight 304 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 4: this election could be. 305 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 3: And when those numbers become clearer. 306 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 2: I mean, I know that Labor and Tipati, Maori and 307 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 2: the Greens have all kind of kept a separate from themselves, 308 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 2: and I suspect the coalition government parties will do the 309 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 2: same coming into the year. When do you expect them 310 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: to kind of merge together? 311 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: I suppose I think. 312 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 4: Throughout the year all we're going to see is them 313 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 4: sort of come apart a little bit more. It's fairly 314 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 4: clear who the preferred partners are, right, Green's work with Labor, 315 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 4: the Maori Party want to work with the Left Actors 316 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 4: very much. Act would work with National. It's as simple 317 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 4: really as that. But there is differentiation there. The parties 318 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 4: have different policies. I imagine as we head towards election day, 319 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 4: those differentiations are going to be much more clear. It's 320 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 4: only after the election that they'll start to come together 321 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 4: and negotiate either side depending on where they sit, and 322 00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 4: then we'll get a result after that. 323 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 3: And you match mentioned Ratna and why Tongey. 324 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 2: Of course, before the unofficial kicking off of the political year. 325 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: Do we know anything about those events? Has anyone said 326 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: that they're not going. 327 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 4: No at this stage. Well, we have Latona next week 328 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 4: up in the very ot Snagtak. At this time of 329 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 4: year that is generally seen as the start of the 330 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 4: political year. Pretty much all party leaders go to that event. 331 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 4: I think David Seam has missed it a few times. 332 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 4: And then of course in early February we have White 333 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 4: Honey up North and that is always a set piece event. 334 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 4: It's interesting the Prime Minister Chris Luckxon didn't attend last year. 335 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 4: He actually spent the day with Natahou and Kadoa just 336 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 4: outside of christ Church. So it will be interesting to 337 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 4: see if, given it's an election year, he will attend 338 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 4: White Honey celebrations. Safe to assume David Seam will be there, 339 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 4: Chriss Hipkins will be there, the Greens will be there. 340 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 4: Winston usually goes that's his nahe up in the North, 341 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 4: so no doubt he'll be there. The question really is 342 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 4: the Prime Minister. He hasn't made a decision on that yet. 343 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: And Ethan finally give me some predictions for this year. 344 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 2: I don't mind how wild they are and I don't 345 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: mind if you want to put some cash down if 346 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 2: you're really confident about some as well. 347 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 4: Predictions are a fool's game, particularly in politics. 348 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 3: But I can't play. 349 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 4: I'll give you three. I'll give you three. It will 350 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 4: be a November election. I'm pretty confident in that both 351 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 4: National and Labor won't get more than forty percent of 352 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 4: the party vote, and either David Seymour or CRUs Hipkins 353 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 4: will get married, but both won't. Only one will. They're 354 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 4: both engaged, obviously, so. 355 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 3: Only one will. 356 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 2: Well, I've already seen a Woman's Day and Z cover 357 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 2: from one of them. Do you reckon there's going to 358 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 2: be another as well, featuring Seymour. 359 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 4: We'll have to wait and see. I don't know if 360 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 4: he's ever been in Woman's Day actually, but I feel 361 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 4: like I feel like you quite enjoy it. 362 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so as well. 363 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: Well, I reckon I'll put a couple of dictions down 364 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 2: as well. I think you're you're straight on the money 365 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,199 Speaker 2: with no party reaching forty percent, so I agree with 366 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 2: you on that. But also I think a major announcement 367 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 2: in regards to assets sales before the next election as well. 368 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 3: I think that's going to be a hot topic. 369 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 4: I agree, it's certainly going to be one to watch. 370 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 3: Thanks so much for joining us, Ethan, Thanks Chelsea. That's 371 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 3: it for this episode of the Front Page. 372 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: You can read more about today's stories and extensive news 373 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 2: coverage at NZDHERLD dot co dot nz. The Front Page 374 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 2: is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who's also 375 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: our editor. 376 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 3: I'm Chelsea Daniels. 377 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,159 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 378 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 379 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.