WEBVTT - Are the Government's policies having an impact on violent crime? 

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<v Speaker 1>Kioda.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Crime is

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<v Speaker 2>a constant hot topic of debate in New Zealand, one

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<v Speaker 2>that is rarely far from the front pages. The recent

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<v Speaker 2>alleged murder of University of Auckland student Kyl Warrell in

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<v Speaker 2>Auckland has served as a reminder of the randomness that

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<v Speaker 2>comes with violent crime, with a sixteen year old now

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<v Speaker 2>charged with murder. But the government is touting that violent

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<v Speaker 2>crime is on the decline, years before their intended target.

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<v Speaker 2>So I R streets really any safer? And is vibe

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<v Speaker 2>more than policy influencing this Today on the Front Page

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<v Speaker 2>ends at Herald's senior journalist Derek Cheng is with us

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<v Speaker 2>to discuss the stats. Derek, So we've spoken to you

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<v Speaker 2>before about the official New Zealand Crime and Victim Survey.

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<v Speaker 2>Now the full report isn't available publicly yet, but the

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<v Speaker 2>government has already touted some of the key figures from it,

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<v Speaker 2>haven't they.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So they came out and they were like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>this is an amazing result. We've seen an enormous reduction

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<v Speaker 1>in the number of victims of violent crime and they

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<v Speaker 1>have a public service target to reduce that number by

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<v Speaker 1>twenty thousand compared to when the government took office in

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<v Speaker 1>October twenty twenty three. And the latest figures, which was

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter the result, which shows the numbers in the

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<v Speaker 1>year to February, showed that they were actually already ahead

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<v Speaker 1>of that target. There were twenty eight thousand fewer victims

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<v Speaker 1>for that year to February compared to the year to

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<v Speaker 1>October twenty twenty three. So it's not very surprising I

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<v Speaker 1>guess that the government comes out and talks about what

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<v Speaker 1>a great achievement this is, that their policies are working.

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<v Speaker 1>And I mean any politician would want to beat their

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<v Speaker 1>chests whenever they've they've achieved, and even to pass this target,

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<v Speaker 1>this target wasn't really you know, it's for twenty twenty nine,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're four years ahead and well below the number,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is you know, something that any politician would

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<v Speaker 1>want to would want a song and dance about.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the government did admit that these numbers are volatile,

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<v Speaker 2>though what does that mean really, Well, the.

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<v Speaker 1>Numbers are volatile because any crime is a really complete expecture, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, and Bible crime in particular, there's multiple factors

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<v Speaker 1>that feed into that equation and that they go far

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<v Speaker 1>beyond what a government is doing. They include access to

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare or good housing or good education. It's what the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is doing, what household disposable income is or is not.

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<v Speaker 1>The numbers will go up and down because there are

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<v Speaker 1>so many intersecting factors into you know, the levels of crime.

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<v Speaker 1>But the government didn't really allude to those when they

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<v Speaker 1>said that the numbers are going to be volatile. What

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<v Speaker 1>Justice Minister Paul goldsmanth said was these numbers are volatile.

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<v Speaker 1>So when and if the numbers go up, it's basically

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<v Speaker 1>Labour's fault, which is a typically political thing to say.

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<v Speaker 1>When you ignore all the other factors and things are

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<v Speaker 1>going well, then the government's doing very well. Thanks, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>very much, Pats on the back. Things are going wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the previous government's fault and things are going wrong

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<v Speaker 1>despite what we're doing, and which is obviously a very

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<v Speaker 1>colored political way of viewing things. So when Goldsmith talked

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<v Speaker 1>about the vaults early the numbers, he didn't really talk

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<v Speaker 1>about how things can go up and down. And there

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<v Speaker 1>are so many factors involved in the equation of crime.

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<v Speaker 1>He was really saying, it's they got off again. It's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be Labour's fault.

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<v Speaker 2>Tackling law and order has been a major focus of

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<v Speaker 2>this government. Can you remind us of some of the

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<v Speaker 2>policies that they've introduced.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the most recent one was the passing of the

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<v Speaker 1>sentencing reforms. There's a number of policies from National and

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<v Speaker 1>in the coalition agreements with Newdyland First and the Act

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<v Speaker 1>Party which are designed to basically LinkedIn sentences and stop

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<v Speaker 1>what the government says is the the two leniency sentences

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<v Speaker 1>that happened under Labour's watch. Those include like capping the

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<v Speaker 1>maximum discount the judge can go at forty percent. There

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<v Speaker 1>is a sort of manifestly unjust get out of jail

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<v Speaker 1>clause there that's involved there. That includes limiting how many

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<v Speaker 1>times you can get a discount for remorse or youth.

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<v Speaker 1>It includes encouraging concurrent sentences if someone offends while they're

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<v Speaker 1>on bail. So there's a number of there's a number

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<v Speaker 1>of specific policies in that law change, and that's estimated

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<v Speaker 1>to increase the prison population by I think thirteen hundred

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<v Speaker 1>additional prisoners in the next ten years. There's last year

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<v Speaker 1>they passed the anti gang legislation which had a number

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<v Speaker 1>of things and including the gang page ban for example.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously three strikes the second coming of three strikes is

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<v Speaker 1>part of the restoring law and Order agenda. These things

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<v Speaker 1>are actually alluded to by Godsmith when he talked about

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<v Speaker 1>how our work is seeing great results in the reduction

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<v Speaker 1>of these in the number of victims of violent crime.

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<v Speaker 1>He also talked about scrapping the state funding for the

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<v Speaker 1>cultural reports. Cultural reports a sort of background information that

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<v Speaker 1>can be given to a judge at sentencing and Minister

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<v Speaker 1>of Justice and analysis shows that those reports on average

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<v Speaker 1>usually led to attempercent discount and honest sentence.

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<v Speaker 3>Great to be here with our Minister of Justice and

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<v Speaker 3>Minister of Police, Paul Gosmith and Martin Mitchell. And the

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<v Speaker 3>reason is that also some good encouraging signs. I think

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<v Speaker 3>some good early encouraging momentum around the reduction and trying

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<v Speaker 3>to meet our reduction of twenty thousand victims of violent

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<v Speaker 3>crime being reduced by twenty twenty nine, and we're making

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<v Speaker 3>some good progress on that, and I think that's a

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<v Speaker 3>collective effort from both ministers and their teams. But certainly

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<v Speaker 3>the police, the corrections team, but also the general public

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<v Speaker 3>as well. And so I just want to say thank

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<v Speaker 3>you as we try and restore law and order in

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<v Speaker 3>New Zealand. It's good to be celebrating or less acknowledging

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<v Speaker 3>some of these milestones. Acknowledging also that we have a

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<v Speaker 3>long way to go to get to where we need

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<v Speaker 3>to get to.

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<v Speaker 2>If not the government policies, then what is contributing to

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<v Speaker 2>this decrease? Do you think can they take credit for

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<v Speaker 2>the vibe that they're putting out there, as Justice Minister

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Goldsmith said to.

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<v Speaker 1>You, Well, an important point in all of these policies

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<v Speaker 1>that Goldsmith cited is that they haven't really taken effect yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So they passed their sentencing reforms, but they don't come

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<v Speaker 1>into effect until the end of Journe three strikes two

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<v Speaker 1>point zero. Even though the legislation was passed at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of last year, it doesn't commence until the middle

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<v Speaker 1>of June. The anti gang legislation has been in force.

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<v Speaker 1>But promise with Christopher Luxen in the announcement where they

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<v Speaker 1>beat a their chests and said look how good we're

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<v Speaker 1>doing in law or order, he said that the new

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<v Speaker 1>tools for police to fight gangs were already quote unquote

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<v Speaker 1>unearthing illegal guns and illegal drugs, but the means to

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<v Speaker 1>do that was via a prohibition order, which a cork

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<v Speaker 1>can hand down to a gang member if they violated

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<v Speaker 1>the gang patch three times. No such orders have been given,

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<v Speaker 1>So he's saying that something's happened, which clearly hasn't happened.

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<v Speaker 1>And as for the cultural reports, yes they have been

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<v Speaker 1>they've had their state funding acts, but it's a really

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<v Speaker 1>long stretch to say that that one thing could have

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<v Speaker 1>led to a twenty seven percent reduction in the number

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<v Speaker 1>of victims of violent crime. So when I was interviewing

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<v Speaker 1>Goldsmith about this and he was talking about how great

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<v Speaker 1>the government was doing, I asked him, don't you think

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<v Speaker 1>there are maybe factors independent of the government that might

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<v Speaker 1>be contributing to this And he said, well, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously there are broader factors, and one very significant factor

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<v Speaker 1>is the messaging from the government, as in the vibe

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<v Speaker 1>is really important and it's a message that filters through

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<v Speaker 1>the entire system. And he said that, you know, acknowledging

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<v Speaker 1>judicial independence, and the government can't tell a judge what

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<v Speaker 1>sentence to give, it can only set the law, which

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<v Speaker 1>the judiciary then interprets in handing down it.

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<v Speaker 2>Sentence, what are the stats have you seen?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I mean crime stats are really crime stats are

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<v Speaker 1>a real puzzle or right, because there's multiple different stats

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<v Speaker 1>and politicians love to cherry pick whatever stats they want

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<v Speaker 1>to back up the things that they say. So we've

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<v Speaker 1>talked about the New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably the most robust survey because it interviews thousands

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<v Speaker 1>of New Zealander's age fifteen and over and it accounts

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<v Speaker 1>for and in doing that it is able to account

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<v Speaker 1>for unreported crime, and that is only about a quarter

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<v Speaker 1>of crime is ever actually reported to police. But in

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<v Speaker 1>the latest announcement from the government, they're actually looking at

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<v Speaker 1>quarterly results from that survey, which isn't meant to be

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<v Speaker 1>an annual survey. In the footnotes themselves in the survey,

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<v Speaker 1>they talk about the quarterly results having to take them

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<v Speaker 1>with a bit of a pinch of salt because it's

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<v Speaker 1>harder to standardize the results for the demographics of New

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<v Speaker 1>Zealand on a quarterly basis than it is an annual basis.

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<v Speaker 1>So the quarterly results that they just announced where they

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<v Speaker 1>had such a big reduction. It is very good news, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>but it is also like not as robust as the

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<v Speaker 1>annual results. Annual results they were released earlier this year

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<v Speaker 1>and it was up to i think the year to

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<v Speaker 1>October twenty twenty four, and at that point the number

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<v Speaker 1>of adult victims of violent crime was much higher than

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<v Speaker 1>the latest quarterly results and has been more or less

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<v Speaker 1>the same since the survey started in twenty eighteen. There's been,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's been a bit of ups and downs,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's what they called no statistically significant difference, and

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<v Speaker 1>it includes during the whole tenure that Labor was in office.

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<v Speaker 1>Then there are other there are several other statistics. There

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<v Speaker 1>are victimization reports to police, so if I go and

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<v Speaker 1>report a crime to police, that's recorded as a victimization

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<v Speaker 1>to police. And National has used those statistics to show

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<v Speaker 1>or to claim a rise in violent crime under Labor,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're really only looking at one thing, and that

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<v Speaker 1>some acts intended to cause injury, and it's true that

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<v Speaker 1>those did rise a lot under Labor, But if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at court data, which looked that people charged and

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<v Speaker 1>people convicted, then those numbers are much more static. So

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<v Speaker 1>the main takeaway from this is that there are a

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<v Speaker 1>number of ways that we look at crime statistics, and

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<v Speaker 1>none of them are particularly definitive. Some are considered more

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<v Speaker 1>robust than others, and overall you're generally looking for trends.

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<v Speaker 1>The trends in crime data show a general reduction in

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<v Speaker 1>crime pre pandemic years heading down to sort of twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two, and since then they've been rising, particularly in

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<v Speaker 1>including a violent crime, and since maybe the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>last year that has kind of appears to have picked.

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<v Speaker 1>But then it's very early days looking at that data

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<v Speaker 1>given that it's so recent.

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<v Speaker 2>Obviously, we mentioned o Worrel in the intro and while

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<v Speaker 2>that's obviously still a developing case, it is believed to

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<v Speaker 2>be a random attack. At this stage. There's not really

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<v Speaker 2>anything that can the government can do to police random attacks,

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<v Speaker 2>though is there not directly?

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<v Speaker 1>They can do things in general that can help to

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<v Speaker 1>address things like that. And one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>Police Minister Mitchell said when he was talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>reduction and violent crime victims was that there's been a

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<v Speaker 1>forty percent increase in police on the beat and having

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<v Speaker 1>more police on the beat visible on the streets has

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<v Speaker 1>been shown to be effective and generally making communities feel

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<v Speaker 1>safer and being more of a deterrent towards crime. But

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<v Speaker 1>you know, crime is often impulsive. It's often fueled by

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<v Speaker 1>substance addictions, by trauma, and given those quite volatile factors,

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<v Speaker 1>when it strikes, it's often spontaneous, impulsive, and quite random.

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<v Speaker 2>Even There are some other plans in their early stages

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment the government wants to work on. One

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<v Speaker 2>is expanding citizen arrest powers, which we've talked about before

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<v Speaker 2>on this podcast, but I understand that the Ministry of

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<v Speaker 2>Justice isn't a huge fan of it.

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<v Speaker 1>So this was work that started with consultation with the

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<v Speaker 1>Ministry or Advisory Group for victims of retail crime. Retail

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<v Speaker 1>crime has been on the rise quite significantly. Part of

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<v Speaker 1>that is down to better reporting mechanisms. The system AURA,

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<v Speaker 1>which police introduced, has made it much easier to report

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<v Speaker 1>retail crime, but there is also a general feeling that

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<v Speaker 1>retail crime itself has been increasing. So the government is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to crack down on retail crime and the first

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<v Speaker 1>thing that they wanted to look at, and they wanted

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<v Speaker 1>the Ministry Advisory Group to look at the citizens arrest

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<v Speaker 1>So those powers are quite unclear. The Ministry Advisory Group,

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<v Speaker 1>which you would expect, comes down or came down really

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<v Speaker 1>strongly in favor of empowering citizens of rest even when

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<v Speaker 1>a crime hadn't taken place. You know, they wanted to

0:12:54.559 --> 0:12:58.599
<v Speaker 1>empower citizens' rest when you had a reasonable belief that

0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:01.160
<v Speaker 1>a crime was taking placement. Wasn't really prepared to go

0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 1>that for obvious reasons. They've instead sort of found in

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 1>middle ground where they want to clarify those powers and

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 1>broaden them and they hope that that will make a

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>material difference. Whenever they have proposals that they asked irrelevant

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.360
<v Speaker 1>officials to look them over. And the justice officials in

0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:21.000
<v Speaker 1>this case were not exactly endorsing the government proposal here.

0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:23.959
<v Speaker 1>They said that the proposal won't really have any desire,

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.720
<v Speaker 1>in fact, won't really have any impact on public safety,

0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:28.840
<v Speaker 1>and came with a bunch of risks, and those included

0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 1>people making citizens arrests when police wouldn't make an arrest.

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 1>And there could be a number of reasons for that,

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, for example, there's no evidence for police to

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 1>be able to pursue a prosecution. They said that there's

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.680
<v Speaker 1>a risk of escalating violence. We've already seen this when

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.720
<v Speaker 1>a dairy worker in Auckland was killed after he confronted

0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 1>someone who stole something from the shop and confronted them

0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.120
<v Speaker 1>one hundred meters from the store and was stabbed and killed.

0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 1>So that's not to say that the citizens arrest powers

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.640
<v Speaker 1>don't need to be clarified. The Justice officials actually said yes,

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>it would be helpful to clarify them, but they didn't

0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.440
<v Speaker 1>recommend going as far as the government did and is

0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.199
<v Speaker 1>doing is they want to be able to for people

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.560
<v Speaker 1>to make a citizens arrest at any time of day

0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 1>and using any reasonable force, and that can include striking

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:13.040
<v Speaker 1>someone or causing them bodily harm if, for example, someone

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.559
<v Speaker 1>is resisting arrest. Currently, the citizens arrest provisions is restricted.

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>It needs to be an offense that carries the punishment

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>of three years in jail, and for stolen goods, that

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.200
<v Speaker 1>needs to be stolen goods worth more than one thousand dollars,

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>and you know you're not going to grab someone and

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 1>see what's in their hands and then grab a calculator

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:30.560
<v Speaker 1>and see if that adds up to a thousand dollars.

0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.200
<v Speaker 1>So there's definitely a case that those powers do need

0:14:33.240 --> 0:14:36.240
<v Speaker 1>to be clarified. The danger or the fear here is

0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 1>that it will lead to all kinds of vigilanty justice,

0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:44.200
<v Speaker 1>which will actually make public safety matters worse rather than better.

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:53.479
<v Speaker 4>Legislative changes introduced in twenty twenty play stay heavy regulatory

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:57.520
<v Speaker 4>burden on these volunteers. While some of these changes have

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:02.520
<v Speaker 4>been positive, others went beyond what is necessary to ensure

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:07.760
<v Speaker 4>public safety. I've heard from club members and range operators

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 4>that this regulatory burden is too high it may force

0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 4>some to consider closure. This bill simplifies the regulatory requirements

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 4>for clubs and rangers to reduce the burden on operators

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 4>while maintaining safety requirements.

0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.400
<v Speaker 2>And I believe there are ongoing revisions to the gun

0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 2>safety laws and three D printed guns are one of

0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:37.080
<v Speaker 2>the latest talking points here. Can you tell me what's

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:38.120
<v Speaker 2>happening around that?

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Well, the government has agreed with the National Party has

0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 1>agreed with the Egg Party to rewrite the Arms Act.

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.840
<v Speaker 1>The Arms Act is I think forty two years old

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.840
<v Speaker 1>and is no longer as well out of date basically,

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.880
<v Speaker 1>and it has no provisions for three D printing of

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.360
<v Speaker 1>firearms or firearms parts. This is a small problem, but

0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:02.120
<v Speaker 1>an increasing problem in New Zealand police have confiscated a

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 1>number of three D printed firearms and firearms parts and

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:10.440
<v Speaker 1>charged people with offenses, but they actually want a specific

0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:15.600
<v Speaker 1>offense created where it's illegal to possess any blueprints for

0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 1>firearms parts and firearms themselves to be three D printed.

0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:24.120
<v Speaker 1>That is still being consulted on. The government rewrite of

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>the Arms Act is scheduled for some time this parliamentary term.

0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.520
<v Speaker 1>There's just been consultation on that over the summer period.

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.720
<v Speaker 1>A bill to enact what the government wants is probably

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.120
<v Speaker 1>not expected too much later this year and to be

0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:40.760
<v Speaker 1>passed sometime next year. But it was interesting because I

0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 1>was speaking with the minister responsible for that rewright, Nicole McKee.

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:46.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, she said she's really trying to look at

0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>a balance here because some of the three D printed

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 1>innovation that she's seen by New Zealand companies is only

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>happening in New Zealand and it could be a real

0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:01.400
<v Speaker 1>boost for economic and small business growth. She talked about

0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>having visited somewhere that was making really lightweight stocks, which

0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.760
<v Speaker 1>would be of huge interest to the Defense Force, huge

0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.119
<v Speaker 1>interest to hunters, anyone who carries a lot of that

0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of equipment. You know, their loads could be a

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>hell of a lot lighter. Obviously, she doesn't want criminals

0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:22.240
<v Speaker 1>to be able to get your hands on that, So

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:27.480
<v Speaker 1>how you balance that from religious littive standpoint is a

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.000
<v Speaker 1>really difficult question. So we'll wait and see what the

0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 1>government comes up with it. In the meantime, police will

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 1>still go after those three D printed guns and gun parts.

0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:42.679
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us, Derek Cool. That's it for this

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.960
<v Speaker 2>episode of the Front Page. You can read more about

0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 2>today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzherld dot co

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:54.640
<v Speaker 2>dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sills

0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.720
<v Speaker 2>and Richard Martin, who is also a sound engineer. I'm

0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:03.159
<v Speaker 2>Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 2>wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for

0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:08.880
<v Speaker 2>another look behind the headlines.