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Speaker 1: Final ocida for the year, and what a year of OCRs.

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Speaker 1: It's been a twenty five points baked in. We think

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Speaker 1: the big question is is there more where that came from?

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Speaker 1: Or will Christian on his way out to new pastures

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Speaker 1: suggest that this is that. Jared Kerres Kibibank chief economist,

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Speaker 1: of course, and his back with this, Jared, Morning, Morning.

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Speaker 1: You've got twenty five with more or twenty five and

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Speaker 1: thanks for coming twenty five.

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Speaker 2: And let's say if that's enough. I think we're getting

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Speaker 2: pretty close to the bottom. I think that's the main message.

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Speaker 2: Interest rate through its stillatory levels, and we're looking to

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Speaker 2: see if that's going to entice some investment.

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Speaker 1: How nervous of the three percent inflation.

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Speaker 2: A, I'm not not at all. I think we can

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Speaker 2: look through some of the short term spikes. We actually

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Speaker 2: have inflation falling below two percent to about one point

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Speaker 2: eight percent next year, so there's a lot of deflationary

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Speaker 2: pressure coming through, particularly from a late really weak labor market.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so if you're right at one point eight's, and

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Speaker 1: let's credit you right here and right now, you've been

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Speaker 1: right all along with this, So congratulations on that. At

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Speaker 1: one point eight If you're right and things aren't firing up,

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Speaker 1: Are we back into the business of talking about increases

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Speaker 1: in the cash rate?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think if we're struggling to see inflation, then

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Speaker 2: they'll keep in traits loads longer. I think the risks

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Speaker 2: that are things, you know, sort of bounce back a

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Speaker 2: little quicker, And wouldn't that be nice? And if we

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Speaker 2: start talking about rate hikes in the second half of

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Speaker 2: next year, then that means job's done and their economy

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Speaker 2: is performing.

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Speaker 1: Well, what weight do you place on if Christian, If

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Speaker 1: you're right and Christian goes today, we're done, Thanks very much.

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Speaker 1: I've got a new job, in a new life. Twenty

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Speaker 1: five Is that buy bye? How many people in this

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Speaker 1: country go?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: That's as good as it gets. I'm now going to move.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to act, hopefully a few, hopefully a few, Mike.

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Speaker 2: I mean a lot of people are rolling off their mortgages.

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Speaker 2: Now we've got a large chunk of our mortgage book

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Speaker 2: rolling on too much lower rates. That's certainly helping household budgets.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just hope entices people to, yeah, get back

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Speaker 2: out into the market, get active again. And more importantly,

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Speaker 2: we need businesses investing.

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Speaker 1: The Auckland shift of lake. Do you see that as

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Speaker 1: being real some of the numbers in the vibe we're

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Speaker 1: hearing in Auckland the engine room of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. We are seeing some green shoots and

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Speaker 2: pockets of the economy, which is nice. But we saw

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Speaker 2: these sorts of green shoots this time last year and

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Speaker 2: they withered away. So you know, green shoots is one thing.

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Speaker 2: Activity is another. We really need to see activities lifting

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Speaker 2: into next year before I gained confidence.

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Speaker 1: Good only Jared nice to catch up. Appreciate it very much,

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Speaker 1: Jared Kurt the Quewi Bank chief economists Christian Hawksbeck, what

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Speaker 1: will be one of his final interviews before he goes

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Speaker 1: off and to do whatever Christian Hawksby is going to

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Speaker 1: do in the rest of his life, will be on

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Speaker 1: the program roughly this time tomorrow. For more from the

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Speaker 1: Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd be

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Speaker 1: from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.