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Speaker 1: Just gone the huddle with New Zealand Southby's International Realty,

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Speaker 1: the ones with worldwide connections that perform.

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Speaker 2: Not a promise, Someone says, Bryan, you keep saying the number,

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Speaker 2: the amount we need to pay. Isn't it the US

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Speaker 2: importers that pay? We may just sell this? Yes, you're

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Speaker 2: quite right. There was a slip of the tongue from me. Connor,

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Speaker 2: English director at Wellington government relations firm silver Ie is

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Speaker 2: with me on the huddle tonight along with Mark Sainsbury, broadcaster.

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Speaker 2: Good evening, guys, get a.

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Speaker 3: Good to be here.

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Speaker 2: Oh there you go. Mark, you'd muted yourself with the

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Speaker 2: beautiful check bones. You're back there. We are all right,

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Speaker 2: sains What do you make of Donald Trump and his

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Speaker 2: and his announcement today? Would were you expecting worse? Always

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Speaker 2: muted himself again apparently, Connor, let's go with the safe

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Speaker 2: option here. What do you make of it?

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Speaker 4: Well, I go, I'm fascinated by it, and I know

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Speaker 4: it's not positive for New Zealand because we have the

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Speaker 4: direct impact of ten percent on you know that eight

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Speaker 4: or nine billion dollars of we've got going over there.

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Speaker 4: But there'll be secondary effects, you know, through change and

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Speaker 4: trade flows and you know, commodity prices and interest rates

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Speaker 4: and exchange rates, and some of those will be positive,

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Speaker 4: some of those will be negative. But the thing that

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Speaker 4: fascinates me, Ryan is just the big picture here. And

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Speaker 4: I can't help but thinking that what the American administration

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Speaker 4: is trying to do is a bit of a tax

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Speaker 4: swap where they're looking to go from income and company

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Speaker 4: text and wanting to lower that, and they're wanting to

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Speaker 4: get revenue from tariffs and also selling what they call

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Speaker 4: in the gold card visa to balance their books and

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Speaker 4: you know, try and protect jobs in their domestic market

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Speaker 4: at the same time. So you know, they've done it

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Speaker 4: before in the nineteen thirties. It didn't work out so well,

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Speaker 4: So we'll see what happens this time.

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Speaker 2: No, you're on the money. I mean, that's exactly what

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Speaker 2: Trump was saying today, wasn't it. He said, why are

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Speaker 2: we paying you know, why are our workers? And he

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Speaker 2: had all the union and workers in front of it.

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Speaker 2: Why are we paying personal income taxt? And we could

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Speaker 2: have the rest of the world paying it for us?

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Speaker 2: So Mark, what did you Mark? What did you make

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Speaker 2: about it?

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Speaker 3: Look, I mean, Connor's quite right. The Smooth Hawly Tariffact

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Speaker 3: nineteen thirty. They brought in twenty twenty five percent tariffs.

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Speaker 3: It worsened the depression that.

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Speaker 2: Caused Mark's mute again.

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Speaker 3: My bony it's my bony ear keeps hitting the mute

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Speaker 3: button on the Sorry about but yeah, they went through

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Speaker 3: this before.

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Speaker 2: It's it's where is it?

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Speaker 3: And the thing is everyone just accepts it. It's just

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Speaker 3: it's sort of the world ruled by Trump and everyone's

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Speaker 3: just looking. I mean, I really worry about the you know,

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Speaker 3: the world economics sort of you know situation. Are we

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Speaker 3: now expected to bankroll the US? It seems to be.

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Speaker 3: I think Connor's quite right, that's what that's what Trump

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Speaker 3: is trying to do. But the impacts and some of

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Speaker 3: the stuff is just mad. The Herd and McDonald Islands

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Speaker 3: in their tax list, they're getting tax ten percent. Do

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Speaker 3: you know who lives on the Herd and McDonald Island?

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Speaker 2: No one?

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Speaker 3: The Macaroni penguin.

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Speaker 2: What are they exporting? It's interesting. The other thing he

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Speaker 2: was talking about Connor today was he mentioned war a

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Speaker 2: couple of times, and it's this idea that you need

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Speaker 2: to be a you need to have a strong manufacturing base,

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Speaker 2: should you need to be on a war footing. You

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Speaker 2: need to be able to make your own medicines, you

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Speaker 2: need you can't be beholden to anyone, You need to

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Speaker 2: be able to make your own weapons, all this kind

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Speaker 2: of stuff. So is that part of the strategy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think it is probably part of the strategy too.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think if you if you go back in time,

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Speaker 4: you know, self sufficiency was very definitely a policy objective

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Speaker 4: that a lot of countries had post of wars that

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Speaker 4: we've had over the last few centuries, because there was

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Speaker 4: risks of particularly you know, on food security as well

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Speaker 4: as your ability to produce stuff.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, he is.

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Speaker 4: Obviously moving away from the sort of theory of comparative

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Speaker 4: advantage where you trade with people who can do a

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Speaker 4: better job than what you can and then you sell

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Speaker 4: them what you can do a better job than them.

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Speaker 4: And so he's moving away from that sort of framework,

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Speaker 4: but I think he's still going to be doing a

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Speaker 4: lot of trading. Yeah. And the challenge, well, the challenge

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Speaker 4: that they had in back in ninety three with a

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Speaker 4: smooth Holy law is of course imports went down from

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Speaker 4: about three to one billion, and you think, okay, that's

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Speaker 4: really good for you know, jobs in America. But the

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Speaker 4: trouble was other countries diverted their purchase decisions to away

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Speaker 4: from the US, and their exports went down from you know,

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Speaker 4: six billion to a couple of billion, and their GDP

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Speaker 4: haved and you know, unemployment went from eight percent to

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Speaker 4: twenty five percent in three years. So you know, it's

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Speaker 4: it's like old Mike Tyson says, you know, everyone's got

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Speaker 4: a plan and to get punched in the face. And

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump's He's thrown his punch and we'll see what

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Speaker 4: what comes back.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, vonder Lane's lining up, hasn't she. She's she's

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Speaker 2: got a big fist ready right, Well, bet to you

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Speaker 2: guys in just a second. Connor English and Mate Sainsbury

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Speaker 2: on the huddle, The huddle.

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Speaker 1: With New Zealand Southeby's International Realty achieve extraordinary results with

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Speaker 1: unparallel reach.

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Speaker 2: Connor English and Mark Sainsbury on the huddle tonight, twelve

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Speaker 2: minutes away from six Sainzo. So, the Treaty Bill, the

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Speaker 2: Select Committee that's looking into the Treaty Bill, they're going

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Speaker 2: to report back a month early. But it means that

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Speaker 2: they won't be able to read all the submissions that

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Speaker 2: were made and the opposition. Remember they said, oh, it's

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Speaker 2: such a dangerous debate, we shouldn't be having it. Now

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Speaker 2: they're saying, actually, we should be extending it. Well, what

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Speaker 2: do you make of this? What's going on here?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Look, I mean, does Christopher Luxan sit there and think,

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Speaker 3: I wish we've never done this. I mean it's a

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Speaker 3: lose lose. They caught all the flat for allowing the

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Speaker 3: Treaty Principle's Bill to be introduced to begin with, and

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Speaker 3: the ghetto out of jail thing was no, no, but

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Speaker 3: it's not to go any further. But now they've opened

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Speaker 3: up Pandora's box and saying, well, we don't want to

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Speaker 3: look at exactly how many people are actually antye, because

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Speaker 3: that's what you suspect, that the bulk of the submissions

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Speaker 3: might have been against the bill. Not a great look.

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Speaker 3: The whole thing I think was all thought out from

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Speaker 3: the beginning and was probably totally unnecessary. It's just a joke.

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Speaker 2: It is a bit, but it's I mean as well.

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Speaker 2: Chris Luz's point, Connor, is that that's the price of MMP.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and I mean we have got a democracy

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Speaker 4: and different parties have different policies and they do different

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Speaker 4: deals and coalition agreements to progress those policies, and this

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Speaker 4: is the outcome of a deal that was done on

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Speaker 4: one such policy. So I don't think anyone should be

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Speaker 4: surprised that there's been a bill put through Parliament that

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Speaker 4: some people disagree with and others agree with it. I mean,

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Speaker 4: that's nothing new, is it.

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Speaker 2: No, I suppose not. I guess the interesting part about

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Speaker 2: this is that one side said we shouldn't be having

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Speaker 2: the debate, and now they're saying we should be extending it.

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Speaker 2: I mean just seems a little a little lot. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but you know, there's been all sorts of bills

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Speaker 4: that some people are uncomfortable discussing, you know, things around

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Speaker 4: the end of life and gay marriage for example. True,

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Speaker 4: but there was no reason why that debate shouldn't happen.

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Speaker 4: That people are entitled to their view, they should respect

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Speaker 4: the fact that other people might have a different view.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. A good point well, to add.

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Speaker 3: To that was the fact that Seymour is it said

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Speaker 3: that he that it wasn't a it wasn't a deal

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Speaker 3: breaker in terms of the coalition agreement. Really, yes, he

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Speaker 3: said there was an interview with Guyan Espina and he said,

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Speaker 3: so you wonder why on earth you know? I mean

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Speaker 3: that just that, just case, I said, just comes back

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Speaker 3: to the fascal nature of it all, and just the

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Speaker 3: you know, you just must you must, you would wake

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Speaker 3: up in the middle of and I can think, why

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Speaker 3: the hell?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was an odd time outside waiting outside the

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Speaker 2: Courts Hotel in Auckland for those negotiations to be finished.

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Speaker 2: I wonder what did happen on the inside?

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Speaker 4: I think though it is it is interesting though Ryan

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Speaker 4: that I mean, there has been a lot of interest

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Speaker 4: in this bill, and so it does show that people,

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Speaker 4: you know, from a range of perspectives are interested in

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Speaker 4: this is an issue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and so.

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Speaker 4: I think it's it's it's you know, positive that people

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Speaker 4: are participating in the process and you know, they're probably

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Speaker 4: having discussions that they wouldn't otherwise have. And I don't

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Speaker 4: I don't take the view that if you have a

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Speaker 4: discussion that's a bad thing. I think so long as

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Speaker 4: you're polite and professional and you know you're it's not

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Speaker 4: a bad it's a good thing.

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Speaker 3: Except some of the parts that discussion. Connor will never

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Speaker 3: be here.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's that's the point that maybe has a problem with. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: But but I guess the other point is has sure

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Speaker 2: we've had a debate, Connor, but has David Seymour won it?

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 2: Or was that never the point? You know?

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Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't I don't know. But but

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Speaker 4: maybe he has won it in the sense that there's

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Speaker 4: been a lot more discussion about it than there would

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Speaker 4: be otherwise. And you know, people are saying, well.

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Speaker 2: Is this good? Is it bad?

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Speaker 1: Is it?

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Speaker 4: You know? Is there other ways of looking at it?

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Speaker 4: I think that's a healthy thing. And a democracy, isn't

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Speaker 4: it to have a discussion and a constructive way. I

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Speaker 4: think it is unfortunate that some people on both sides

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Speaker 4: of the argument have taken a bit of a negative

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Speaker 4: and destructive view of things. But you know, isn't discussion good?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? All right, Hey guys, we have to leave it there.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for coming on. Mark, You'll have to sort out

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Speaker 2: your your ears next time.

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Speaker 3: I starting to give a little page. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: get a procedure done.

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Speaker 2: Just what have them taken off? That's not going to

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Speaker 2: help horns. I're going to help you stock point them

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Speaker 2: at the top conoring list and Mark Sainsbury on the

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Speaker 2: huddle tonight.

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