1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,079 Speaker 1: Fresh quarterly data for you from Centrix this morning. Upside 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: Over all arrears of East year on year, they're still 3 00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: up nine percent, but for the quarter of the East 4 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: in financial hardship it's increased by quite a bit more, 5 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,319 Speaker 1: falling behind on mortgages and energy payment Centrics. Managing director 6 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Keith McLoughlin's whether it's Keith morning to you, Good morning, Mike, 7 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: So sum it up good bad? Or are we treading water? 8 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: What's going on? 9 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 2: Well, I said the text of the consumer's perspective, it's 10 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 2: very good. He's been a downward trend in areas basically 11 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 2: all of this calendar year, so it really indicates that 12 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: households are getting back in control of their budgets and 13 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: managing their money a lot better. And yeah, I think 14 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 2: they're just not spending the discretionary dollar that they used 15 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: to speed, So I think that that's good news. I 16 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: think from the company's side things they're still a bit 17 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: tight in their area there. 18 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: When you talk well, you've got two stories of the companies. 19 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: One is that people aren't spending so they'll be squeezed, 20 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: and then you get those that are so squeezed they're 21 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: going into liquidation from a historical point of view, How 22 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 1: bad are liquidations at the moment? 23 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 2: Well, they are bad. They're certain hard, and I've been 24 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 2: to the last four or five years, and I think 25 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: that's a little bit of a carryover from the easy 26 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 2: of pressure over the post COVID period to allow businesses 27 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 2: to get back on their feet. And yes, we are 28 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 2: seeing a significant increase in the number of companies that 29 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 2: are going into liquidation. I mean it's up nineteen percent 30 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 2: on where it was this time last year. But really 31 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: the hidden number in that is there's about fifty thousand 32 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 2: businesses in the last month that have just closed their 33 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 2: door and walked away. And that's the hidden damage that 34 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: we see to businesses. 35 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: It's extraordinary, isn't it. Is this the worst it gets, 36 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: or is there more to come, or we just don't know. 37 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 2: I think on the consumer side, I think it's going 38 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: to get better, no question about that. And I think 39 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 2: come September October will start to see consumer confidence come 40 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,959 Speaker 2: back into the market and as a result of that, 41 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 2: hopefully an increase in spending, which will help some of 42 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: the businesses. But I think on the business side, we're 43 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 2: probably another two or three months of difficult times before 44 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 2: we start to see that flowsure of cash. 45 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: What's actually happened on the consumer side, because I'm looking 46 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: increase in mortgage lending, so that that shows optimism. The 47 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 1: rates are still comparatively high. Have we just decided they 48 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: are what they are? We may as well go for it. 49 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 2: Yes. I think what call people out was not the 50 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 2: fact that the interest rates are where they are today. 51 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 2: I think it was the speed in which they lifted 52 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 2: and a lot of households were caught for short as 53 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: far as that was concerned, didn't have time to adjust 54 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: their spending. I think now people have accepted it is 55 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 2: where it is. They're looking for some reduction, but in 56 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: the meantime they're going along okay. And I think really 57 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 2: the confidence and the whole commercial industry relies on consumer confidence. Yeah. 58 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 2: I think that's starting to creep back into the market now. 59 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: Gee. That's encouraging to hear weld On Keith appreciate it 60 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: very much. Keith mcloughlin' Centric Managing Director with us this morning. 61 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to 62 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: news talks they'd be from six am weekdays, or follow 63 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.