Speaker 1: Hilda.
Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. After decades
Speaker 2: of tyrannical rule and thirteen years of civil war, the
Speaker 2: Assad regime in Syria has fallen. After rebels rapidly closed
Speaker 2: in on the capital of Damascus. President Bashah al Assad
Speaker 2: and his family fled the country and are reportedly now
Speaker 2: in Moscow. It's cleared the way for rebel group Hayata
Speaker 2: Tarier al Sham to take control of the country. Global
Speaker 2: powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns
Speaker 2: are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation. Today
Speaker 2: on the Front Page, University of Otago's Robert Patman joins
Speaker 2: us to discuss the significance of this change and what's.
Speaker 1: Next the embattled nation. Robert, can you start by giving us,
Speaker 1: I guess the briefest overview you can about the Assad regime.
Speaker 3: Well, the Issad regime has been in place for twenty
Speaker 3: four years, and for thirteen of the last twenty four
Speaker 3: years there's been civil war. In twenty eleven, the Assad
Speaker 3: regime came very close to being toppled following what was
Speaker 3: called the Arab Spring. There was lots of peaceful protesters
Speaker 3: against the Assad dictatorship in Syria in twenty eleven. The
Speaker 3: regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters and also
Speaker 3: seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia. And in
Speaker 3: the intervening period, the Assad regime had steadily got the
Speaker 3: upper hand in the civil war and had captured most
Speaker 3: of the major cities, although the northern part of Syria
Speaker 3: remained under rebel control. And so that took us to
Speaker 3: about a week ago when suddenly the rebels, who had
Speaker 3: been training in the part of Syria where they were located,
Speaker 3: were launched a lightning offensive that caught the Regime of
Speaker 3: God and captured Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria.
Speaker 3: And that began a sort of the beginning of knocking
Speaker 3: down a row of dominoes as the rebels advanced towards Damascus.
Speaker 3: And as they like to say, the rest is history
Speaker 3: has said, regime was overthrown over the weekend.
Speaker 1: What do we know about the Hayat Tarid al Shalam
Speaker 1: rebels who have taken control of the country, What do
Speaker 1: they stand for or believe?
Speaker 3: Well, that's a good question, because there is evidence of
Speaker 3: considerable evolution. Originally those rebels had some sort of affiliational
Speaker 3: links with our kaider, but they've subsequently distanced themselves from
Speaker 3: those extremist sort of elements. And it's been a very
Speaker 3: broad coalition, because it should be pointed out that it's
Speaker 3: not just IHT, but it's also rebels that had been
Speaker 3: formally linked to support from the United States Free Syrian rebels,
Speaker 3: for example. And it's this broad coalition that came together
Speaker 3: and has cooperated successfully against Hassad's army. One of the
Speaker 3: reasons for the success of the rebels not only was
Speaker 3: this a carefully planned operation, not only did it maximize
Speaker 3: the clout of all the rebels, but all the armed
Speaker 3: rebel groups, whereas before they had been competing with each
Speaker 3: other while in opposition to Assad. So that was a
Speaker 3: qualitive difference. But in addition, the two biggest supporters of
Speaker 3: the Asad regime, both Iran and Russia, have been severely
Speaker 3: weakened by involvement in conflicts elsewhere. Iran's ability to support
Speaker 3: the Asad regime has been weakened by the fact that
Speaker 3: its proxy has Bulla has received substantial collateral damage, so
Speaker 3: to speak, in its conflict with Israel, and Syria itself
Speaker 3: has been targeted for air strikes by Israel. And in addition, Russia,
Speaker 3: which has played a key role in ASAD winning Aleppo
Speaker 3: in two thousand and six through air strikes amongst other things,
Speaker 3: Russia finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very
Speaker 3: debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a
Speaker 3: position like twenty sixteen where it could respond rapidly to
Speaker 3: support an ally. Like I said, and so in short,
Speaker 3: I think it's a combination of careful coordination amongst all
Speaker 3: the rebel armed groups and also external factors which meant
Speaker 3: that the key backers of Assad's regime were weakened, and
Speaker 3: so that presented a window of opportunity for the rebels.
Speaker 1: Well, the rebel leaders are now working with Asad's Prime
Speaker 1: minister currently on a managed transition, But do they actually
Speaker 1: have a leader that they'll put up instead?
Speaker 3: Yes, I think they do have a leadership. And the
Speaker 3: trouble with the current situation Chelsea is it's very fluid.
Speaker 3: I was hearing some disquieting reports this morning, for example,
Speaker 3: that Israel may have launched two air strikes on Damascus,
Speaker 3: and also seen to be moving into an area beyond
Speaker 3: the Golan Heats. For our listeners, the Golan Heats was
Speaker 3: seized by Israel in nineteen sixty seven during the so
Speaker 3: called Six Day War. They've never relinquished that Syrian territory,
Speaker 3: and they now seem to be encroaching on further Syrian
Speaker 3: territory or as they put it, security reasons. But you know,
Speaker 3: this seems very premature, given the fact that Syria hasn't
Speaker 3: yet got a chance to establish a post assad government
Speaker 3: and already external actors are interfering in its domestic affairs.
Speaker 3: This seems extremely troublesome.
Speaker 1: Some residents in Hamma are now celebrating the rebel takeover.
Speaker 1: Thank God. We've been waiting for this da for a
Speaker 1: long time, and we're all coming out on the street.
Speaker 1: This is the happiest d for us. We were afreid
Speaker 1: to go out at night. We've been waiting for this.
Speaker 4: Feelings that can't be described. It's been fifty years we've
Speaker 4: been suffering injustice and crime and oppression. This is a
Speaker 4: historic moment, a priceless moment.
Speaker 1: Well, I've seen videos and reports out of Damascus and
Speaker 1: it seems like there's a lot of joy about the
Speaker 1: end of the asserted regime. Notably, one of the presidential
Speaker 1: palaces has been looted of all of its luxury goods.
Speaker 1: Do you think it's fair to say that people are
Speaker 1: actually quite happy about this.
Speaker 3: I think across the board, it should never be forgotten
Speaker 3: that the Asad regime represented a sect called the Alo Whites,
Speaker 3: which were a branch of the Shea community in Syria.
Speaker 3: They represented about it's very difficult to put a precise
Speaker 3: figure on it, between fifteen and seventeen percent of the population.
Speaker 3: They were always too weak, so without external support, it
Speaker 3: was always likely that as Sad regime will collapse, and
Speaker 3: that's what's happened essentially. And I think there's enormous joy
Speaker 3: across the political divide in Syria because it's recognized that
Speaker 3: Asad's regime, I mean, the Asad family have been in
Speaker 3: power for fifty four years, and one of the first
Speaker 3: things the rebels did was release all political prisoners, and
Speaker 3: so that's one a lot of goodwill. I think the
Speaker 3: current leadership of THEIHD seem to be quite pragmatic, and
Speaker 3: I think the international community must give the rebels a chance.
Speaker 3: My view is that the Biden administration and the Western
Speaker 3: world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of
Speaker 3: the rebels and give them a chance to establish a
Speaker 3: post a Sad democratic Syria. In other words, Syria's subject
Speaker 3: at the moment to sanctions because of the behavior of
Speaker 3: the ASAD dictatorship. I think the international community should create
Speaker 3: a pathway or indicate a pathway by which those sanctions
Speaker 3: could be lifted. And one pathway would be to say
Speaker 3: to the new transitional leaders, could you please put in
Speaker 3: place arrangements for a free and democratic Syria. If they
Speaker 3: do that, they should be supported by the removal sanctions.
Speaker 3: It's in our interest liberal democracies throughout the world is
Speaker 3: in our interest to see the transition towards a much
Speaker 3: more representative government in Syria. And I'm a little bit
Speaker 3: concerned that some actors, such as the NEST and Yahoo government,
Speaker 3: seem to be prejudging what's going to come out of
Speaker 3: the post a Sad situation, and I think that's unfortunate.
Speaker 1: Well, the group is considered a terrorist organization by many nations,
Speaker 1: but you've also got many welcoming the end of the
Speaker 1: Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary General calling it a
Speaker 1: historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future. Is
Speaker 1: there a tricky balance here for foreign powers to work
Speaker 1: with the group.
Speaker 3: Well, that's what I've tried to suggest, a balance that
Speaker 3: is saying to the rebels that have overthrown a brutal
Speaker 3: dictatorship which most Western countries would welcome, saying to them,
Speaker 3: we fully support your verbal commitment to move towards democracy,
Speaker 3: and we will effectively remove the sanctions regime because at
Speaker 3: the moment, Syria has been crippled by sanctions. So if
Speaker 3: you want Syria to move towards democracy, then I think
Speaker 3: it's important that you create a pathway in which the
Speaker 3: post are said, governing authorities can a series of milestones which,
Speaker 3: if they meet, the sanctions will be reduced. In other words,
Speaker 3: some incentives for the new leaders to move towards democracy,
Speaker 3: and I think that's sensible. It seems to me that
Speaker 3: this term terrorism is often banded about if you're opposing
Speaker 3: a dictation. Remember the Asad family have been in power
Speaker 3: since nineteen seventy and to give an example of the
Speaker 3: sort of repression that went on in Syria, Basha Assad's
Speaker 3: father imprisoned someone for forty three years simply because that
Speaker 3: individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons.
Speaker 3: He did nothing else. If you choose to resist a dictatorship,
Speaker 3: there's no peaceful path there to resist it, So by
Speaker 3: definition you're probably going to have to use force. And
Speaker 3: of course Asad depicted all of his opponents as terrorists,
Speaker 3: but that's because he gave no opportunity, peaceful opportunity to
Speaker 3: oppose his own regime. So we have to be very
Speaker 3: careful about using these terms terrors.
Speaker 1: One of the big consequences of the Syrian conflict has,
Speaker 1: of course been the millions of refugees it has created.
Speaker 1: Twelve million people have been displaced over the last thirteen
Speaker 1: years alone, and over five million of them have fled overseas.
Speaker 1: We've seen many of them turn up in Europe and
Speaker 1: exacerbate the continent's refugee crisis and political backlash. What does
Speaker 1: the end of the Assad regime mean for those people
Speaker 1: who have fled? Is there going to be a path
Speaker 1: back for them? Do you think?
Speaker 3: I hope so, particularly and here the UN and in
Speaker 3: particular the members of the UN Security Council, because after all,
Speaker 3: the UN is only as strong or as weak as
Speaker 3: its five permanent members of the Security Council allow it
Speaker 3: to be I hope there will be an international consensus
Speaker 3: on trying to establish post the transitional arrangements in Syria,
Speaker 3: creating a pathway for representative government. If Syrians are convinced
Speaker 3: there will be no return of repression and there is
Speaker 3: a method of peacely transferring power, then I think many
Speaker 3: of them would like to return. New Zealand, of course,
Speaker 3: has absorbed about thirteen hundred Syrian refugees. I think there's
Speaker 3: about close to four hundred in Dunedin and alone, and
Speaker 3: they've settled and integrated very well into New Zealand society.
Speaker 3: But obviously they didn't come here by choice. They came
Speaker 3: because they were Their government was their own worst enemy. Unfortunately,
Speaker 3: that is a reality for many people in the world
Speaker 3: that the the entity that abuses their rights the most
Speaker 3: is their governments. And of course, when you live in
Speaker 3: a country which is free, like New Zealand and where
Speaker 3: human rights are respected, we don't have to worry about
Speaker 3: things like that. But that's not the case for many
Speaker 3: people in the world. And I suppose to answer your question,
Speaker 3: many Syrians would like to return if the international arrangements
Speaker 3: are in place and the national arrangements are in place
Speaker 3: in Syria for a post Assad democratic country, I think
Speaker 3: many people will be playing wait and see for the
Speaker 3: moment to see how things pan out. After all, if
Speaker 3: you're living in New Zealand and you're originally from Syria,
Speaker 3: you probably won't relish going back to Syria until you
Speaker 3: can be pretty clear that there won't be a return
Speaker 3: to the sort of repression that had led people to
Speaker 3: leave the country they were born in in their first place.
Speaker 3: But my sense is there is enormous joy amongst Syrians
Speaker 3: right across the political board. The Asad family had monopolized
Speaker 3: political power for fifty four years and were responsible for
Speaker 3: appalling acts against their own citizens. It shouldn't be forgotten
Speaker 3: that in twenty thirteen the Syrian regime used chemical weapons
Speaker 3: against their own population, and then, of course, the Russians
Speaker 3: stepped in to support the Assad regime and use the
Speaker 3: most brutal methods in bombing civilian positions in Aleppo in
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen. So this is not only just a defeat
Speaker 3: for the Assaid regime, it's also a defeat for some
Speaker 3: of their authoritarian supporters, like mister Putin's regime. In Moscow
Speaker 3: and also the regime in Tehran.
Speaker 5: As rebels entered the capital as Uran war miight or
Speaker 5: said present Assad left the country in what could spell
Speaker 5: the end of his twenty four year rule and the
Speaker 5: downfall of his plans five decade reigned. Well, several conflicting
Speaker 5: reports have emerged in last few hours on a side.
Speaker 5: So whereabout questions are being raised, where can this you in,
Speaker 5: president and go?
Speaker 1: Well, of course, like you said before, Asad's regime is
Speaker 1: being propped up by the likes of Russia and Iran,
Speaker 1: and it has done so for the last decade. How
Speaker 1: does this departure shake up relations in the regime, particularly
Speaker 1: when you consider all those tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
Speaker 3: At the moment, it's very difficult to predict. Because I
Speaker 3: was very struck by the fact that mister Biden in
Speaker 3: a press conference was claiming credit by supporting Israel, the
Speaker 3: enemies of Israel had been weakened, and that in turn
Speaker 3: meant that the rebels could succeed in Syria. But what
Speaker 3: was missing from that account was that America has actually
Speaker 3: by supporting Neshnya, who's relentless bombardment of Gaza and its
Speaker 3: invasion of Lebanon has actually contributed to even more instability
Speaker 3: in the region. In particular, neither Israel under Mestergnieknyahu or
Speaker 3: the United States seem to be dealing with the root
Speaker 3: cause of instability in the Middle East, which is the
Speaker 3: refusal to acknowledge the right of self political self determination
Speaker 3: for the Palestinian people. It's difficult to predict how the
Speaker 3: departure of the Assad regime will affect the dynamics of
Speaker 3: the Middle East. I very much hope, and I think
Speaker 3: this is probably the same for many Syrian citizens. I
Speaker 3: would think what emerges from the horror of the Assad
Speaker 3: regime is a transition to a democrat, a peaceful, democratic country,
Speaker 3: and that would be wonderful. Of course, that wouldn't always
Speaker 3: be welcomed by many of Syria's neighbors, Saudi Arabia, which
Speaker 3: is an authoritarian regime, and indeed Iran, which is an
Speaker 3: authoritarian regime. So it remains to be seen. I think
Speaker 3: it's too early to predict. Many of us a week
Speaker 3: ago wouldn't have predicted what happened in Syria, so I
Speaker 3: think we have to be a little bit humble when
Speaker 3: we look into our crystal ball predicting what will happen
Speaker 3: after the fall of the Sad regime. I do think
Speaker 3: even the Biden administration and more realistically, the Trump administration,
Speaker 3: have to stay true to their policy in the Middle
Speaker 3: East of a two state solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem,
Speaker 3: and that to me is the key to removing some
Speaker 3: of the grievances and hatred that have festered this region
Speaker 3: for so long.
Speaker 4: It wasn't even daylight in Germany before they took to
Speaker 4: the streets waving the distinctive green and black flag of
Speaker 4: the opposition. Thousands of Syrians live and work in Germany, Many,
Speaker 4: arriving in twenty and fifteen when then German Chancellor Angela
Speaker 4: Merkel opened the borders to those fleeing oppression and war.
Speaker 4: They gathered on the streets of Bucharest, the Romanian capital,
Speaker 4: joy on their faces clear to see us. The news
Speaker 4: of President as that's all spread like wildfire.
Speaker 1: Where does this leave Russia now that they've granted assad asylum,
Speaker 1: Because I would have thought that Putin would want to
Speaker 1: cut ties with him.
Speaker 3: No, I think mister Putin, having put Russian troops into
Speaker 3: Syria and having lost Russian troops in Syria. Having spent
Speaker 3: a lot of money there, wouldn't want to be seen
Speaker 3: to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So he's
Speaker 3: granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad's family. I'm
Speaker 3: sure this won't be a rent free situation. I'm sure
Speaker 3: the riches of the Assad family will be used to
Speaker 3: help facilitate that stay. But I think Putin probably decided
Speaker 3: on balance it was politically safer for him to at
Speaker 3: least be seen to be standing by the Assad family
Speaker 3: at a time when the regime which the Russians had
Speaker 3: supported was overthrown. The alternative was to disown Assad, but
Speaker 3: in doing so, Putin ran the risk of disowning his
Speaker 3: own policies for the last decade and a half.
Speaker 1: Do you think Assad could attempt to return to power
Speaker 1: or does he know now that his goose is cooked.
Speaker 3: No. I think it's over for the Asad family. Now
Speaker 3: we now know that not only is mister Putin a
Speaker 3: giving a political asylum to the Asad family, but it
Speaker 3: has also withdrawn from that naval base and withdrawn much
Speaker 3: of its military capabilities from Syria. So I think there's
Speaker 3: no prospect of a comeback by President Assad. He's widely
Speaker 3: hated throughout the country, and if Syria does act on
Speaker 3: the rhetoric of the rebels and move towards the democracy,
Speaker 3: then it will be increasingly difficult for a sad reimpose
Speaker 3: and authoritarian regime.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
Speaker 1: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
Speaker 1: a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front
Speaker 1: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.