1 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: Hilda. 2 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. After decades 4 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 2: of tyrannical rule and thirteen years of civil war, the 5 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 2: Assad regime in Syria has fallen. After rebels rapidly closed 6 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: in on the capital of Damascus. President Bashah al Assad 7 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 2: and his family fled the country and are reportedly now 8 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 2: in Moscow. It's cleared the way for rebel group Hayata 9 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 2: Tarier al Sham to take control of the country. Global 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 2: powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:51,880 Speaker 2: are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation. Today 12 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: on the Front Page, University of Otago's Robert Patman joins 13 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: us to discuss the significance of this change and what's. 14 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: Next the embattled nation. Robert, can you start by giving us, 15 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: I guess the briefest overview you can about the Assad regime. 16 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 3: Well, the Issad regime has been in place for twenty 17 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 3: four years, and for thirteen of the last twenty four 18 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 3: years there's been civil war. In twenty eleven, the Assad 19 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 3: regime came very close to being toppled following what was 20 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 3: called the Arab Spring. There was lots of peaceful protesters 21 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 3: against the Assad dictatorship in Syria in twenty eleven. The 22 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters and also 23 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 3: seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia. And in 24 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 3: the intervening period, the Assad regime had steadily got the 25 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 3: upper hand in the civil war and had captured most 26 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 3: of the major cities, although the northern part of Syria 27 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: remained under rebel control. And so that took us to 28 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 3: about a week ago when suddenly the rebels, who had 29 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 3: been training in the part of Syria where they were located, 30 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 3: were launched a lightning offensive that caught the Regime of 31 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 3: God and captured Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria. 32 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 3: And that began a sort of the beginning of knocking 33 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 3: down a row of dominoes as the rebels advanced towards Damascus. 34 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: And as they like to say, the rest is history 35 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 3: has said, regime was overthrown over the weekend. 36 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,359 Speaker 1: What do we know about the Hayat Tarid al Shalam 37 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: rebels who have taken control of the country, What do 38 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: they stand for or believe? 39 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 3: Well, that's a good question, because there is evidence of 40 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:38,559 Speaker 3: considerable evolution. Originally those rebels had some sort of affiliational 41 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 3: links with our kaider, but they've subsequently distanced themselves from 42 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 3: those extremist sort of elements. And it's been a very 43 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 3: broad coalition, because it should be pointed out that it's 44 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 3: not just IHT, but it's also rebels that had been 45 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: formally linked to support from the United States Free Syrian rebels, 46 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 3: for example. And it's this broad coalition that came together 47 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: and has cooperated successfully against Hassad's army. One of the 48 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 3: reasons for the success of the rebels not only was 49 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 3: this a carefully planned operation, not only did it maximize 50 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 3: the clout of all the rebels, but all the armed 51 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 3: rebel groups, whereas before they had been competing with each 52 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 3: other while in opposition to Assad. So that was a 53 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 3: qualitive difference. But in addition, the two biggest supporters of 54 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 3: the Asad regime, both Iran and Russia, have been severely 55 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 3: weakened by involvement in conflicts elsewhere. Iran's ability to support 56 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 3: the Asad regime has been weakened by the fact that 57 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 3: its proxy has Bulla has received substantial collateral damage, so 58 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 3: to speak, in its conflict with Israel, and Syria itself 59 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: has been targeted for air strikes by Israel. And in addition, Russia, 60 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 3: which has played a key role in ASAD winning Aleppo 61 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 3: in two thousand and six through air strikes amongst other things, 62 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 3: Russia finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very 63 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 3: debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a 64 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 3: position like twenty sixteen where it could respond rapidly to 65 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 3: support an ally. Like I said, and so in short, 66 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 3: I think it's a combination of careful coordination amongst all 67 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 3: the rebel armed groups and also external factors which meant 68 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 3: that the key backers of Assad's regime were weakened, and 69 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 3: so that presented a window of opportunity for the rebels. 70 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: Well, the rebel leaders are now working with Asad's Prime 71 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: minister currently on a managed transition, But do they actually 72 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: have a leader that they'll put up instead? 73 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 3: Yes, I think they do have a leadership. And the 74 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 3: trouble with the current situation Chelsea is it's very fluid. 75 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 3: I was hearing some disquieting reports this morning, for example, 76 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 3: that Israel may have launched two air strikes on Damascus, 77 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 3: and also seen to be moving into an area beyond 78 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: the Golan Heats. For our listeners, the Golan Heats was 79 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 3: seized by Israel in nineteen sixty seven during the so 80 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 3: called Six Day War. They've never relinquished that Syrian territory, 81 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 3: and they now seem to be encroaching on further Syrian 82 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 3: territory or as they put it, security reasons. But you know, 83 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 3: this seems very premature, given the fact that Syria hasn't 84 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 3: yet got a chance to establish a post assad government 85 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:35,480 Speaker 3: and already external actors are interfering in its domestic affairs. 86 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 3: This seems extremely troublesome. 87 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: Some residents in Hamma are now celebrating the rebel takeover. 88 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: Thank God. We've been waiting for this da for a 89 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: long time, and we're all coming out on the street. 90 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: This is the happiest d for us. We were afreid 91 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: to go out at night. We've been waiting for this. 92 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 4: Feelings that can't be described. It's been fifty years we've 93 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 4: been suffering injustice and crime and oppression. This is a 94 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 4: historic moment, a priceless moment. 95 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: Well, I've seen videos and reports out of Damascus and 96 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: it seems like there's a lot of joy about the 97 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: end of the asserted regime. Notably, one of the presidential 98 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: palaces has been looted of all of its luxury goods. 99 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: Do you think it's fair to say that people are 100 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: actually quite happy about this. 101 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 3: I think across the board, it should never be forgotten 102 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 3: that the Asad regime represented a sect called the Alo Whites, 103 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 3: which were a branch of the Shea community in Syria. 104 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 3: They represented about it's very difficult to put a precise 105 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 3: figure on it, between fifteen and seventeen percent of the population. 106 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 3: They were always too weak, so without external support, it 107 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 3: was always likely that as Sad regime will collapse, and 108 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 3: that's what's happened essentially. And I think there's enormous joy 109 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 3: across the political divide in Syria because it's recognized that 110 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,359 Speaker 3: Asad's regime, I mean, the Asad family have been in 111 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 3: power for fifty four years, and one of the first 112 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 3: things the rebels did was release all political prisoners, and 113 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 3: so that's one a lot of goodwill. I think the 114 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 3: current leadership of THEIHD seem to be quite pragmatic, and 115 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 3: I think the international community must give the rebels a chance. 116 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 3: My view is that the Biden administration and the Western 117 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 3: world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of 118 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 3: the rebels and give them a chance to establish a 119 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: post a Sad democratic Syria. In other words, Syria's subject 120 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 3: at the moment to sanctions because of the behavior of 121 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 3: the ASAD dictatorship. I think the international community should create 122 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 3: a pathway or indicate a pathway by which those sanctions 123 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 3: could be lifted. And one pathway would be to say 124 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 3: to the new transitional leaders, could you please put in 125 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 3: place arrangements for a free and democratic Syria. If they 126 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: do that, they should be supported by the removal sanctions. 127 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: It's in our interest liberal democracies throughout the world is 128 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 3: in our interest to see the transition towards a much 129 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 3: more representative government in Syria. And I'm a little bit 130 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 3: concerned that some actors, such as the NEST and Yahoo government, 131 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 3: seem to be prejudging what's going to come out of 132 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 3: the post a Sad situation, and I think that's unfortunate. 133 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: Well, the group is considered a terrorist organization by many nations, 134 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: but you've also got many welcoming the end of the 135 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary General calling it a 136 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 1: historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future. Is 137 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 1: there a tricky balance here for foreign powers to work 138 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: with the group. 139 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 3: Well, that's what I've tried to suggest, a balance that 140 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 3: is saying to the rebels that have overthrown a brutal 141 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 3: dictatorship which most Western countries would welcome, saying to them, 142 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 3: we fully support your verbal commitment to move towards democracy, 143 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 3: and we will effectively remove the sanctions regime because at 144 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 3: the moment, Syria has been crippled by sanctions. So if 145 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 3: you want Syria to move towards democracy, then I think 146 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 3: it's important that you create a pathway in which the 147 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 3: post are said, governing authorities can a series of milestones which, 148 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 3: if they meet, the sanctions will be reduced. In other words, 149 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 3: some incentives for the new leaders to move towards democracy, 150 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 3: and I think that's sensible. It seems to me that 151 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 3: this term terrorism is often banded about if you're opposing 152 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 3: a dictation. Remember the Asad family have been in power 153 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 3: since nineteen seventy and to give an example of the 154 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 3: sort of repression that went on in Syria, Basha Assad's 155 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 3: father imprisoned someone for forty three years simply because that 156 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 3: individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons. 157 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 3: He did nothing else. If you choose to resist a dictatorship, 158 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 3: there's no peaceful path there to resist it, So by 159 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 3: definition you're probably going to have to use force. And 160 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 3: of course Asad depicted all of his opponents as terrorists, 161 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 3: but that's because he gave no opportunity, peaceful opportunity to 162 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 3: oppose his own regime. So we have to be very 163 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 3: careful about using these terms terrors. 164 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 1: One of the big consequences of the Syrian conflict has, 165 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: of course been the millions of refugees it has created. 166 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: Twelve million people have been displaced over the last thirteen 167 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 1: years alone, and over five million of them have fled overseas. 168 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: We've seen many of them turn up in Europe and 169 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:54,720 Speaker 1: exacerbate the continent's refugee crisis and political backlash. What does 170 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: the end of the Assad regime mean for those people 171 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: who have fled? Is there going to be a path 172 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: back for them? Do you think? 173 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 3: I hope so, particularly and here the UN and in 174 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 3: particular the members of the UN Security Council, because after all, 175 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 3: the UN is only as strong or as weak as 176 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 3: its five permanent members of the Security Council allow it 177 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 3: to be I hope there will be an international consensus 178 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 3: on trying to establish post the transitional arrangements in Syria, 179 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:28,239 Speaker 3: creating a pathway for representative government. If Syrians are convinced 180 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 3: there will be no return of repression and there is 181 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 3: a method of peacely transferring power, then I think many 182 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 3: of them would like to return. New Zealand, of course, 183 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 3: has absorbed about thirteen hundred Syrian refugees. I think there's 184 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 3: about close to four hundred in Dunedin and alone, and 185 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 3: they've settled and integrated very well into New Zealand society. 186 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 3: But obviously they didn't come here by choice. They came 187 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,559 Speaker 3: because they were Their government was their own worst enemy. Unfortunately, 188 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,840 Speaker 3: that is a reality for many people in the world 189 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 3: that the the entity that abuses their rights the most 190 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 3: is their governments. And of course, when you live in 191 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 3: a country which is free, like New Zealand and where 192 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 3: human rights are respected, we don't have to worry about 193 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: things like that. But that's not the case for many 194 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 3: people in the world. And I suppose to answer your question, 195 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 3: many Syrians would like to return if the international arrangements 196 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 3: are in place and the national arrangements are in place 197 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 3: in Syria for a post Assad democratic country, I think 198 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 3: many people will be playing wait and see for the 199 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,199 Speaker 3: moment to see how things pan out. After all, if 200 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 3: you're living in New Zealand and you're originally from Syria, 201 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 3: you probably won't relish going back to Syria until you 202 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,480 Speaker 3: can be pretty clear that there won't be a return 203 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 3: to the sort of repression that had led people to 204 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 3: leave the country they were born in in their first place. 205 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 3: But my sense is there is enormous joy amongst Syrians 206 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 3: right across the political board. The Asad family had monopolized 207 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 3: political power for fifty four years and were responsible for 208 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 3: appalling acts against their own citizens. It shouldn't be forgotten 209 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 3: that in twenty thirteen the Syrian regime used chemical weapons 210 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 3: against their own population, and then, of course, the Russians 211 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 3: stepped in to support the Assad regime and use the 212 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 3: most brutal methods in bombing civilian positions in Aleppo in 213 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 3: twenty sixteen. So this is not only just a defeat 214 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 3: for the Assaid regime, it's also a defeat for some 215 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 3: of their authoritarian supporters, like mister Putin's regime. In Moscow 216 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 3: and also the regime in Tehran. 217 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 5: As rebels entered the capital as Uran war miight or 218 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 5: said present Assad left the country in what could spell 219 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 5: the end of his twenty four year rule and the 220 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 5: downfall of his plans five decade reigned. Well, several conflicting 221 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 5: reports have emerged in last few hours on a side. 222 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 5: So whereabout questions are being raised, where can this you in, 223 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 5: president and go? 224 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: Well, of course, like you said before, Asad's regime is 225 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: being propped up by the likes of Russia and Iran, 226 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: and it has done so for the last decade. How 227 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: does this departure shake up relations in the regime, particularly 228 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: when you consider all those tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon. 229 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 3: At the moment, it's very difficult to predict. Because I 230 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 3: was very struck by the fact that mister Biden in 231 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 3: a press conference was claiming credit by supporting Israel, the 232 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 3: enemies of Israel had been weakened, and that in turn 233 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 3: meant that the rebels could succeed in Syria. But what 234 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 3: was missing from that account was that America has actually 235 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 3: by supporting Neshnya, who's relentless bombardment of Gaza and its 236 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 3: invasion of Lebanon has actually contributed to even more instability 237 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 3: in the region. In particular, neither Israel under Mestergnieknyahu or 238 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 3: the United States seem to be dealing with the root 239 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 3: cause of instability in the Middle East, which is the 240 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 3: refusal to acknowledge the right of self political self determination 241 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 3: for the Palestinian people. It's difficult to predict how the 242 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 3: departure of the Assad regime will affect the dynamics of 243 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 3: the Middle East. I very much hope, and I think 244 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: this is probably the same for many Syrian citizens. I 245 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 3: would think what emerges from the horror of the Assad 246 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 3: regime is a transition to a democrat, a peaceful, democratic country, 247 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: and that would be wonderful. Of course, that wouldn't always 248 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 3: be welcomed by many of Syria's neighbors, Saudi Arabia, which 249 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 3: is an authoritarian regime, and indeed Iran, which is an 250 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 3: authoritarian regime. So it remains to be seen. I think 251 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 3: it's too early to predict. Many of us a week 252 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 3: ago wouldn't have predicted what happened in Syria, so I 253 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 3: think we have to be a little bit humble when 254 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 3: we look into our crystal ball predicting what will happen 255 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 3: after the fall of the Sad regime. I do think 256 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 3: even the Biden administration and more realistically, the Trump administration, 257 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 3: have to stay true to their policy in the Middle 258 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 3: East of a two state solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem, 259 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 3: and that to me is the key to removing some 260 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 3: of the grievances and hatred that have festered this region 261 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 3: for so long. 262 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 4: It wasn't even daylight in Germany before they took to 263 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 4: the streets waving the distinctive green and black flag of 264 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 4: the opposition. Thousands of Syrians live and work in Germany, Many, 265 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 4: arriving in twenty and fifteen when then German Chancellor Angela 266 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 4: Merkel opened the borders to those fleeing oppression and war. 267 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 4: They gathered on the streets of Bucharest, the Romanian capital, 268 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 4: joy on their faces clear to see us. The news 269 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 4: of President as that's all spread like wildfire. 270 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: Where does this leave Russia now that they've granted assad asylum, 271 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: Because I would have thought that Putin would want to 272 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 1: cut ties with him. 273 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 3: No, I think mister Putin, having put Russian troops into 274 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: Syria and having lost Russian troops in Syria. Having spent 275 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 3: a lot of money there, wouldn't want to be seen 276 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 3: to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So he's 277 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 3: granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad's family. I'm 278 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 3: sure this won't be a rent free situation. I'm sure 279 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 3: the riches of the Assad family will be used to 280 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 3: help facilitate that stay. But I think Putin probably decided 281 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 3: on balance it was politically safer for him to at 282 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 3: least be seen to be standing by the Assad family 283 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 3: at a time when the regime which the Russians had 284 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 3: supported was overthrown. The alternative was to disown Assad, but 285 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 3: in doing so, Putin ran the risk of disowning his 286 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 3: own policies for the last decade and a half. 287 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: Do you think Assad could attempt to return to power 288 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 1: or does he know now that his goose is cooked. 289 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 3: No. I think it's over for the Asad family. Now 290 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 3: we now know that not only is mister Putin a 291 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,959 Speaker 3: giving a political asylum to the Asad family, but it 292 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 3: has also withdrawn from that naval base and withdrawn much 293 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 3: of its military capabilities from Syria. So I think there's 294 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 3: no prospect of a comeback by President Assad. He's widely 295 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 3: hated throughout the country, and if Syria does act on 296 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: the rhetoric of the rebels and move towards the democracy, 297 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 3: then it will be increasingly difficult for a sad reimpose 298 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 3: and authoritarian regime. 299 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Robert. 300 00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 3: Thank you. 301 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 302 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 1: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 303 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 1: at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 304 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 305 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front 306 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,959 Speaker 1: Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and 307 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,640 Speaker 1: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.