1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: Big day for business in this country is hundreds gather 2 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: at the inaugural Ice House Ignite twenty five summit. The 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,320 Speaker 1: plan has to spark business led growth in the economy 4 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:09,960 Speaker 1: of the star. Turn is Sir John Key, who is 5 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: with us. Very good morning to you, Mollie, Mike. Are 6 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: we in need of a shot in the arm? 7 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,200 Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah. Look, I think if you walk out there 8 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 2: at the moment and ask people what's the business environment like, 9 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: I think most people would say it's been pretty tough 10 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 2: over the last eighteen months, a few years, but. 11 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,120 Speaker 3: You know, a bit, as they say in ice hockey, 12 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 3: it's a little bit less about where the puck's been 13 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 3: a bit more about where it's going. And I think 14 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 3: the fundamental reason we've been in such bad shape is 15 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 3: because interest rates have been in the wrong place, and 16 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 3: that's been. 17 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: A slightly self induced position. Too much been by the 18 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: previous government, too much pressure, pretty slow to react I 19 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: think personally on the en straight environment from the Reserve Bank. 20 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: So do you accept that argument in straits have been lowered? 21 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,319 Speaker 2: I think actually they're going to come down even more. 22 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 2: I mean it's less predictable from here, still lower and 23 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: you'll start breathing some confidence back, and I think you're 24 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: very slowly saying to see that in the housing market, agriculture, 25 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 2: as you point out in your show many times, is 26 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: on fire. And actually I think there's some things the 27 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 2: governments are doing. I mean my understanding is the uptake 28 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 2: of this high neck with individual visa category is really 29 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,399 Speaker 2: starting to pour an in big way. So again, you know, 30 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: there's some light at the end of the tunnel. 31 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: Really, Okay, Having said all of that, do we know 32 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: where the puck is going when we've got a bloke 33 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: in America who's changing the rules literally on a daily basis. 34 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, to describe as unpredictable would be, 35 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: you know, an understatement. But let's just take one step 36 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: back and say what do we know? Okay, So Donald 37 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 2: Trump hates trade Oar's hairs. Go and look at the 38 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: videos of the forty years ago. He hasn't changed, saying 39 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: the same thing as he was then as he is now. 40 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: And he fundamentally thinks that the playing field is not 41 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 2: level and America gets taken advantage of now to a 42 00:01:56,240 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: degree a level playing field. Right, not say I agree 43 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: with his policies, I'm saying it's got a point. So 44 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: then you still say, okay, well he's put on these 45 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 2: massive tariffs, and what did he get an enormous vomit from, 46 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 2: you know, the stock market and the bond markets, and 47 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: that forced them to take them off with everyone except China. 48 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 2: So le's part China up for a few seconds. I 49 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: was here last week at shit in China. But take 50 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 2: that out, you know, take that off the table for 51 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 2: a second, because they're an individual case. Then what he's 52 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: sort of saying is, well, I'm going to negotiate with people, 53 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 2: and I'm going to negotiate with countries. We'll see how 54 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 2: it all goes. If you don't play ball, I'll put 55 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 2: it back on. But here's the best predictor I think 56 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 2: for markets, and that is the markets themselves, the stop market, 57 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 2: the bond markets, the currency markets. They are not buying 58 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 2: that he's leaving massive tariffs on. When you put them on, 59 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: they had a terrible reaction. You know, as Andrew Keller 60 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 2: points out on your show every morning. You know, that's 61 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: not been the situation for the last twelve So these 62 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 2: people are pretty smart and they've worked out that he's 63 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: going to negotiate some solution. 64 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: Okay, India, our boots are on the ground for this FTA. 65 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: You tried, you couldn't do it. Will they this time? 66 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: And will it be quality? 67 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 2: Got a better chance with Mum with Modi. I was 68 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 2: there with Mum hun sing lovely man actually passed away recently, 69 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 2: but you know, I was up against the bureaucracy. Never 70 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: want to do it. 71 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 4: I think this is the way to look at it 72 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 4: is that I think if you believe you're going to 73 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 4: get a comprehensive, you know, incredible sup to nuts FTA 74 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 4: with India in day one, then I think you're going. 75 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 2: To be disappointed. And I mean I remember standing in 76 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: the Beehive theaterre doing a press conference with the visiting 77 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 2: then in the Minister of Trade from India and he said, 78 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 2: I'll do an FTA with New Zealand on the podium 79 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 2: right here, right now. And I said, yeah, but you'll 80 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: exclude agriculture, and you'll exclude all of all the things 81 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 2: we want right And it's like a lot of things 82 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 2: in life. You can write anything down, but if you 83 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: exclude the bits that matter, it doesn't do much. So 84 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: my point would be you can always get an FDA. 85 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 2: That's not the judge. It's the quality or the tests. 86 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 2: It's the quality of what actually comes out at the 87 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 2: other end. But I suspect what's going to happen is 88 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 2: they're going to get what in sort of trade talker 89 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 2: is called the early harvest. I think they'll get certain 90 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 2: categories where they'll get some gain. So for the likes 91 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: of maybe a zespre for instance, could be really really 92 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 2: important and really useful across the board. That takes a 93 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 2: much longer period of time. 94 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: You made a very good point about the Trump point, 95 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: which is that it's not a level playing field. And 96 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: one of the people who moved the level playing field 97 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: away from being leveled was you when you're older Jackson 98 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: into Premier House and the LTD all those years ago 99 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: and on that Trump is right, isn't he? 100 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 2: Yeah? No, no, Look, here's the deal. I mean, when 101 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 2: we are put in the incentives, which there were already 102 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 2: something sentences there, but we fundamentally made them better. Let's 103 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 2: be on for the movie industry. I remember the discussions 104 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: around the cabinet, and you know, it's like a lot 105 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 2: ofs around the cabinet table. You may not like what 106 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: you suggested, you just like the alternative, even less, which 107 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 2: was they were going to go to the UK and 108 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 2: make the Hobbits over there. Peda didn't want to go. 109 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: If you want to brothers thought he'd make a better 110 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 2: movie in a series of movies in New Zealand, like 111 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 2: he did. But the reality was that it's just a 112 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 2: business that gravitates to where the incentives are the greatest. 113 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 2: And so you've seen a hollowing out of the movie 114 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 2: industry in Hollywood, and so Trump is right about that actually, 115 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 2: and so I guess my point being, I think if 116 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 2: we all sit there and say, if he really can 117 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 2: put one hundred percent tariff on and let's or a 118 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 2: very significant terror I don't know exactly where it applies, 119 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 2: like for instance, I mean, you know, there's only so 120 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 2: much AI generation you might want to do of a 121 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 2: backdrop that was used in the making of you know, 122 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: any movies that have used New Zealand landscape, or where 123 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 2: you've used very specific technology out or where the workshops. 124 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: So let's just argue from moments of very large terrif 125 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,160 Speaker 2: then there's just no getting away from the fact that 126 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: it will completely rebalance the cost effectiveness of where things 127 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 2: are made. But on the other side of the coin. 128 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: The only point I'd sort of make is that if 129 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 2: that meant that everyone eliminated any kind of subsidies, then 130 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 2: interestingly enough, actually New Zealand went on that basis because 131 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: we've always been a really good place to do things, 132 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:36,799 Speaker 2: because of the skills and talent here and the natural landscape. 133 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: Exactly. I was talking before the news about kids leaving 134 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: the country and the numbers and generally New Zealanders leaving 135 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 1: the country. As a person who can live anywhere in 136 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: the world, are you bullish for this place still? 137 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean, you know the sort of argments that 138 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 2: you hear sometimes. You know, we're a giant retirement village 139 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: and with this and with that. Yeah, yeah, okay, but 140 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: I get that, and I don't want to be some 141 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: sort of ridiculous Pollyanna. But you know, I travel the 142 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 2: world quite a lot. I'm off the States next week, 143 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 2: and as I was in China last week, you still 144 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: get that feeling when you come home to New Zealand 145 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 2: where there's it's more than just look it's a nice 146 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 2: place to live in there. Every country you go to 147 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 2: has significant problems, I mean, just list them. In the 148 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: United States, from racial issues to break down trust in 149 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 2: the systems to it no longer independent judiciary. I mean, 150 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 2: you just go on on, can't you. But it still 151 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 2: doesn't mean it's not a great place to live. So 152 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 2: my point is that it's the same one I always 153 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: used to make when I was Prime mis Look, we 154 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 2: have tyranny of distance, always been our problem. We're at 155 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 2: the bottom of the world. Well, actually technology is changing 156 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: that very rapidly in helping us. We also are very small. 157 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 2: So while we you know, like you know, I have 158 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 2: sympathy for CRYSLU since PM, you know, there's slow to 159 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 2: turn things around, but we're still a lot quicker to 160 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 2: turn around in a bigger country. I mean, can we 161 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 2: with the right policies, with the rights of level of confidence, 162 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 2: with the right sense of enthusiasm, could we actually make 163 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 2: New Zealand you know, a fantastic better place than it 164 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: currently is. The answer is absolutely. And I always thought, 165 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 2: you know, like we campaigned three elections on ambitious for 166 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: New Zealand building a brighter future. Why do we do that? 167 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 2: Because that resonated number one with voters of anything we 168 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 2: ever tested through a focus group, and that shows you 169 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: people want their country to do really well and actually 170 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 2: for the most part, New Zealand is a hard working, 171 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 2: decent people. We actually do have decent institutions like a 172 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: very loyal and dependable police force and a proper judiciary 173 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 2: and all those things. So I guess that's a long 174 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 2: winded way of saying, we're a great place to grow things, 175 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: we're a beautiful place to visit. We do have some 176 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 2: very smartment Do we need to do a hell of 177 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: a lot better and pull our socks up and actually 178 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: do we need to be more welcoming to foreign capital, 179 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 2: smart foreigners who want to come and live here. People 180 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 2: who want to stop them these stupid things like, oh 181 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 2: I can't come here and buy a house something. For 182 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 2: God's say, if they've got an IQ that's well above 183 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: one hundred and they're bringing capital or whatever, let's have 184 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 2: them in the country generating jobs. But can we do it? 185 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 2: The answer is absolutely we can. 186 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 1: Good stuff man, always good to talk to. You appreciate it. 187 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: So John Key for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 188 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,359 Speaker 1: Listen live to news Talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, 189 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.