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Speaker 1: On the huddle with US this evening, Thomas Scrimger, Maximum

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Speaker 1: Institute and Jack Tame, host of Saturday Mornings in Q

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Speaker 1: and A Highlights. Jack, how do you write the chances

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Speaker 1: that this war is essentially over?

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Speaker 2: Honestly, I reckon anyone who can guess what's going to

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Speaker 2: happen with this with any sort of confidence or certainty

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Speaker 2: is just bessing at the moment. I mean, I really

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Speaker 2: hope it's ever soon. I think this is a positive step.

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Speaker 2: The fact that the two sides of the US and

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Speaker 2: Iran are talking is obviously a positive step. But honestly,

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Speaker 2: who could see how the sun follows? It feels like

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Speaker 2: it's perfectly possible that they could reach some sort of agreement.

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Speaker 2: It also feels perfectly possible that Iran could keep up

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Speaker 2: at the asymmetric measures for ages, could keep threatening shipping

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Speaker 2: through the straight upor moves for months to come. I

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Speaker 2: just don't think we know, Thomas.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the oil price, as much as people

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Speaker 3: are really hating how high it is at the moment,

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Speaker 3: the oil market, if they thought the war was going

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Speaker 3: to go on for ages longer, would probably actually expect

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Speaker 3: to see oil being more expensive than there is but

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Speaker 3: you know, do you trust futures traders? Is the great

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Speaker 3: predictors of the world. I'm not really sure. I think

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Speaker 3: you nailed something in your question about Israel perhaps wanting

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Speaker 3: to go along longer than the States. Trump domestically in

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Speaker 3: America is probably facing a lot of pressure to wind

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Speaker 3: things up for Israel, and actually the Arab Golf States

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Speaker 3: are probably wanting to quietly keep going further because they

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Speaker 3: have their own kind of rivalries with Iran.

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Speaker 1: Actually that's a fair point. Can they, Thomas though, go

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Speaker 1: on without the US?

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Speaker 3: I don't think they can if the Americans lean on them.

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Speaker 3: Now the Arab States are essentially talking to America and

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Speaker 3: trying to urge America on. They're not doing things themselves.

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Speaker 3: Israel could in terms of they have the capacity to

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Speaker 3: do it, but I imagine any peace deal with America would

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Speaker 3: be trying to tamp them down as well. So no,

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Speaker 3: I don't think Israel will operate.

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Speaker 2: It really comes back to the question of what Trump's

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Speaker 2: initial intentions were. Right, it seems perfectly feasible to me

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Speaker 2: that they could reach some sort of a deal that

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Speaker 2: actually leaves the Iranian regime perhaps more empowered than they

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Speaker 2: were before. This conflict began. I mean, keep in mind

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Speaker 2: the I Toller was in his mid eighties, he was

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Speaker 2: hardly a young man. He probably would have died within

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Speaker 2: the next couple of years. Now his son's in place

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Speaker 2: arguably more hard line. I mean, the regime is not

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Speaker 2: necessarily well, that's true, but the regime itself is potentially

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Speaker 2: more entrenched. I mean, your previous guests said they've been decimated. True,

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Speaker 2: but they're also layered in a way that's completely different

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Speaker 2: to the likes of Venezuela. You look at the Revolutionary Guard,

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Speaker 2: for example, it's just not at all comparable to other

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Speaker 2: conflicts I think.

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Speaker 1: I also think Jack and I think it was a

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Speaker 1: fair point to make. But in saying that, we always

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Speaker 1: seem to overlook in this discussion that we're having just

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Speaker 1: how much of a bloody pounding these guys have taken. Right,

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Speaker 1: if your military has taken a smashing like this, you

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Speaker 1: are simply not as powerful as you were.

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Speaker 2: I totally agree with that, except that it is asymmetric.

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Speaker 2: So all the Iranians need to do to drive up

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Speaker 2: the you know, to potentially drive countries like New Zealand

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Speaker 2: into economic crises, has put a few minds out of

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Speaker 2: the coast of the Strait of hor moves is to

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Speaker 2: send a speed boat or two out with musicians into

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Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf, and they can create absolute chaos. I mean, sure,

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Speaker 2: military versus military, the Iranians are totally decimated, but the

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Speaker 2: point is that in this day and age, all they

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Speaker 2: need is a few things and they can cause dista.

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Speaker 1: Though I would you not agree they are though at

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Speaker 1: greater risk now of internal dissent right having the they

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Speaker 1: weakened internally.

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Speaker 2: Except that that people in Iran first of all aren't armed,

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Speaker 2: second of all, have no way of organizing any sort

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Speaker 2: of coherent political opposition. I mean, keep in mind that

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Speaker 2: the Internet has switched off for most of the time.

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Speaker 2: People within Iran don't have a way to communicate with

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Speaker 2: one another, so it's not like they can rise up

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Speaker 2: like you might see in other countries. They don't have

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Speaker 2: those kind of options available. So I think I think

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Speaker 2: one of the feasible scenarios is that we get some

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Speaker 2: sort of a piece deal where Donald Trump says, Hurrah,

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Speaker 2: mission accomplished. America has done a great thing here. But

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Speaker 2: at the same time, the Iranian regime says, look at us,

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Speaker 2: we have resistance the great oppressor, the great imperialist. Our

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Speaker 2: regime is stronger than ever. Sure we've taken a bit

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Speaker 2: of a pounding in terms of conventional military but we've

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Speaker 2: managed to stick a middle finger up the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world and look what we've achieved. And I think

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Speaker 2: that is maybe the likely scenario.

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Speaker 4: The Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty the only

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Speaker 4: truly global brand.

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Speaker 1: Right back with the Huddle, Thomas Scrimger and Jack Tame Right, Thomas,

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Speaker 1: if you had a spare eight sound, let's say eight

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Speaker 1: to ten thousand dollars and you could you could go

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Speaker 1: to the National Party fundraising dinner. Whose table would you

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Speaker 1: choose to sit at?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you know, you got to think about

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Speaker 3: who's you know, if you're lobbying for particular polity interests,

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Speaker 3: you know, obviously you go for the relevant minister. But

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Speaker 3: I think it really is is the forecasting. Who do

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Speaker 3: you think is going to be there down the line? Yeah,

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Speaker 3: and everything, you know, probably if you're doing it, I

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Speaker 3: think you'd get more value for money spreading your money

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Speaker 3: around and gown for people a bit junior but a

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Speaker 3: bit ambitious. You know, you want to have been there early.

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Speaker 3: If they're already important in making decisions, they're not even listening.

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Speaker 3: Their mind is somewhere else. They're thinking about their meetings tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: I don't think if you've got an existing minister, it's

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Speaker 3: value for money for shadowy lobby.

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Speaker 1: Does that just leave you Nicola Grigg?

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Speaker 3: Then well, I mean James James is going to be overpromised,

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Speaker 3: you know, Nicola Gregg up and comer you know.

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Speaker 1: No, no, Thomas, No, You've got it wrong. Nicola Gregg

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Speaker 1: is eight thousand, same as Samian, same as Ericas so

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Speaker 1: it's it's the same value. So I think I'm like

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Speaker 1: the way you're thinking about this, But I want to

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Speaker 1: hear what you've got to say, Jack, what do you.

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Speaker 3: Think is more?

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Speaker 1: And Q going no, no, more more excess. No, we're

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Speaker 1: just giving him a free.

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Speaker 2: I feel like Maureen would be a good fun. Maureen's

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Speaker 2: got some more stories because I mean, like, you know, policy,

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Speaker 2: schmallcy you can talk about that, Sure you can try,

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Speaker 2: and but.

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Speaker 1: You want to try about all three times she got

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Speaker 1: hit by lightning?

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Speaker 2: The two or three that was my I mean, that's

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Speaker 2: my first question is like what what would what what

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Speaker 2: distinguished the times in which she got struck by lightning?

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Speaker 2: How did that feel? I think that would be interesting.

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Speaker 2: I'd love to talk submarines with Chris Pink because I

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Speaker 2: know he's into submarines in a big way.

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Speaker 1: Just make up the people who are at this dinner.

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Speaker 1: They're not at the dinner.

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Speaker 2: So we've got no Pink, We've got no Meager, no more.

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Speaker 1: We've got I can't remember Thrown. We've got sameon Nicola Erica,

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Speaker 1: Mark Mitchell, Nikola Grigg is there, what's his face? Who

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Speaker 1: does the mental health? Matt Doocy? And then there was

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Speaker 1: like a Judith Collins is there and Chris Luxen. I

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Speaker 1: think that's all.

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Speaker 2: I feel like Judas Collins would be would.

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Speaker 1: Be, she'd be a hoope, but she's on the way.

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Speaker 2: That's all the more reason. I mean, again, it depends

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Speaker 2: if you're going for influence or you going for banter.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you're going for and I'm going for

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Speaker 2: banter rather than influence. But I mean all seriousness though.

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Speaker 2: I mean, let's be honest, it seems a bit ugly

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Speaker 2: from the outside. I mean, I personally think our campaign

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Speaker 2: fundraising and lobbying laws could do with more than a

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Speaker 2: bit of a tidy up, But it has to be

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Speaker 2: said that a lot of parties do this. I do

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Speaker 2: remember the last labor government having maybe not ten thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars a pop, maybe not quite that much, or eight

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars a pot. They had slightly cheap of it.

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Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they had it.

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Speaker 1: Talking about Jackson, she was she being Jinda was going

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Speaker 1: for eighteen hundred dollars a person, right, that's per ticket,

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Speaker 1: whereas Chris Luxen is selling his table for about ten thousand.

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Speaker 1: Now that's divided by six, so he's he's coming in

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Speaker 1: under seventeen hundred dollars. So Cindy's more excitsiveness. Yeah, he's

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Speaker 1: got a discount.

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Speaker 3: Deflation at work.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. She'll be worried about that if I

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Speaker 1: was him. Thomas. Now, Thomas, what do you make of

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Speaker 1: the backdown by New Zealand first on the fishing law?

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Speaker 3: Well, controversially, I think there's actually a discussion to be

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Speaker 3: had about whether the rules were a good idea. The

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Speaker 3: evidence on minimum minimum sizes for fish catching is actually

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Speaker 3: kind of complicated. Larger fisher more likely to produce more

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Speaker 3: offspring on a per capita basis, so there is a

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Speaker 3: reason to kind of question is this the best system

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Speaker 3: we currently have? But politically toxic? It was crazy who

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Speaker 3: was dead on arrival? The new story starts rolling and

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Speaker 3: so I thought, you know what, it shows the talent

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Speaker 3: of Winston Peters immediately realize back track, cuttlers, get rid

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Speaker 3: of the dead way. So smart politics. I think we

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Speaker 3: shut down a really interesting policy debate.

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Speaker 1: So everybody's claiming credit for the decision here Jack so

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Speaker 1: so Shane says he and Winston had dinner last night

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Speaker 1: and made the decision. But then Luckson says he called

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Speaker 1: Shane into the office and made the decision. You want

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Speaker 1: to adjudicate.

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Speaker 2: So they didn't have dinner with with Luxeon. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: an eight thousand dollars a conversation. No, No, I mean yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean what is the what is the thing? Success

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Speaker 2: has many parents and orphans are orphans here? I mean

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Speaker 2: I agree with Thomas. I mean it's obviously they have

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Speaker 2: they have seen that this is a politically toxic issue.

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Speaker 2: They don't want to go into November with people constantly,

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Speaker 2: you know, turning up in Parliament holding goldfish and saying

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Speaker 2: these are the things that New Zealand first want to

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Speaker 2: be supporting us, you know that tiny little, tiny little

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Speaker 2: first and saying this is what you give them first support.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not surprised to see it. Whether or not

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Speaker 2: it would have reflected on Christopher Luxana, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not surprised to see them both claim it now.

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Speaker 1: You're probably right, guys. Thank you so much appreciated. Jack

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Speaker 1: Tame and Thomas scrims Our huddle this evening.

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